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Belmont Racing Tips: Saturday, June 12th

Tim Geers previews every race on Hyperion Stakes day at Belmont with his tips, best bets and betting strategy.

belmont-racecourse

The Belmont winter carnival continues with the Group 3 Hyperion Stakes headlining the nine-race card in Perth on Saturday afternoon.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 which may improve to a Good 4 depending on any rain that may fall. The rail is out 8m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below, along with his tips, best bets and betting strategy.

Best Bet: Race 6 – (4) Panzdown

Best Value: Race 5 – (6) Island Missile

PlayUp

0

Race 1

Ttouch Wspeed Platinum-Rs0mw (1000m)
1:17pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Ttouch Wspeed Platinum-Rs0mw (1000m)
1:17pm (AEDT)

1. Fiery Water (1) J: William Pike (60kg) T: A G Durrant
54.84.8554.8
2. Dew West (7) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: J N Pateman
1413151413.813
3. Bedouin Belle (4) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59kg) T: L P Luciani
6.56.55.565.86.5
4. Vital Blast (6) J: Ms Kate Southam (59kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
8.5888.58.58
5. City Circle (2) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
666.5666
6. Express Time (5) J: Brad Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
3.23.33.23.23.253.3
7. Snippy Miss (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
6.566666

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

(5) City Circle doesn’t have a good record here at Belmont but it may be more so the wet ground that is the reason she hasn’t run well here often in the past. Her best two runs at Belmont have come on good ground, and you just have to look at her record on rain-affected ground to see how bad she is on it (13 starts, no wins). Drawn well, Chris Parnham on, hopefully the track gets to good and she should be competitive.

(6) Express Time was well-backed first up but didn’t fire. Notably, comes here on the one-week back-up after that and I suspect we’ll see an improved performance.

(3) Bedouin Belle has a good first up record and hasn’t missed a place in five starts here at Belmont, so should be around the mark.

(1) Fiery Bay drops back from 1500m to 1000m which is a query as he’s never won over this distance. Freshened up with three weeks between runs, Pike back on, market will be telling as he ran up to the drift last start.

Tip: (5) City Circle $6.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (6) Express Time $4.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN City Circle, 0.5 units WIN Express Time

0

Race 2

Free Entry To Belmont Pk Plate (1400m)
1:57pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Free Entry To Belmont Pk Plate (1400m)
1:57pm (AEDT)

1. Bandalera Beau (8) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (57kg) T: F R Kersley
554.44.84.84.8
2. Guard The Safe (4) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: F R Kersley
2.82.82.92.72.82.6
3. Disengo (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
2.62.62.62.62.752.6
4. Great Fortune (6) J: William Pike (56kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
9.59.59119.29
5. Needs Time (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: E A Martinovich
2726262626.526
6. Astrape (3) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: D L Morton
7. Crowned Princess (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: Ms J Mitchell
616141415971
8. Kia Ora Jewel (7) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: Ms S L Miller
141515161215

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Think the market has it pretty well spot on here.

Happy to take on (1) Bandalera Beau who got a good run last time out and got the bob. I thought the map here from the wide gate would make things much tougher – either has to work forward, go right back or sit wide.

The best run in the race last start probably looked to be (2) Guard The Safe, who also got a great run through the field on the turn and missed on the bob. In actuality, Bandalera Beau ran the faster final 400m and 200m splits.

The run of the race was actually (3) Disengo, who settled three-wide at the back of the field and had to come very wide in the straight, while the other two took inside runs and saved all the ground. He finished off in basically the same final 400m and 200m as the winner, it was just positions in run that made the difference. Have him on top but no bet at the current prices.

Could see sharp improvement from (5) Needs Time, who drew 13 over 1000m on debut and draws 1 over 1400m here. Could be the blowout chance in the race.

Tip: (3) Disengo $3.00 Bet365

Value: (5) Needs Time $18 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 3

Dream Horse In Cinemas (Bm62+) (1400m)
2:37pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Dream Horse In Cinemas (Bm62+) (1400m)
2:37pm (AEDT)

1. Son Son (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60.5kg) T: A G Durrant
3.73.73.63.73.653.6
2. Queen Brown (8) J: Unknown (58kg) T: D L Morton
3. She's God To You (5) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (57kg) T: Darren Taylor
3.23.33.13.53.33.3
4. The Spruiker (2) J: Peter Knuckey (57kg) T: S J Wolfe
3.83.83.73.73.83.7
5. Miss Ivy League (4) J: Jason Brown (56.5kg) T: M L Lane
6. Ghost Who Walks (3) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
1312111112.212
7. Jedi Mind (6) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: Brett Pope
4.54.64.44.84.554.4
8. I'm Eugene (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54.5kg) T: R W Williams
614134344141
9. Neurologic (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: Martin Allan
1018161617771

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) The Spruiker here from the low draw. Won at big odds first up where he beat a very handy field and he ended last preparation running 2nd to La Farola, which is also a good form reference. Can sit handy from the draw, won second up last prep and looks to be an improving type.

(1) Son Son was defeated as favourite last start but he was unable to dictate the race up front, having to take a trail behind a tearaway leader. Much better suited being able to dictate here and if he gets cheap sectionals, he’ll be very hard to run down.

(3) She’s God To You ran 3rd in Listed company last weekend and drops in grade on the quick back-up. Will be very competitive.

(7) Jedi Mind looks short enough at $5.50, coming off a victory over Allegiance who ran terribly on Wednesday.

Will take on the favourite She’s God To You and back The Spruiker, with a saver on Son Son.

Tip: (4) The Spruiker $3.75 Bet365

Saver: (1) Son Son $3.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN The Spruiker, 0.5 units WIN Son Son

0

Race 4

Western Racepix (Rs1mw) (1400m)
3:17pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Western Racepix (Rs1mw) (1400m)
3:17pm (AEDT)

1. Zephyr Queen (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (61.5kg) T: J P Taylor
55.555.55.55
2. Beat The Bro (2) J: Alan Kennedy (59kg) T: Ms S L Miller
3.23.23.23.233.2
3. Recharger (9) J: Ms Madi Derrick (56.5kg) T: C R Green
191926212023
4. Holy Ghost (10) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
98.58.58.58.68.5
5. Secret Statue (7) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams
3.93.83.63.63.653.6
6. Brave Dream (8) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: A G Durrant
1110111011.211
7. Cornflower (4) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: A D Mathews
171819191819
8. Beffunjar (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54kg) T: N D Parnham
2626263127.526
9. Blow Me Out (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: Brett Pope
1413131313.213
10. Yulong Earth (1) J: Unknown (54kg) T: M W Bairstow

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Have to bet here with the current favourite being (2) Beat The Bro at $2.80. He’s never far away, always runs well, but rarely wins. He’s placed in 12 of his 15 starts but has only won two of them, so he’s hard to back with confidence.

Rather be with (1) Zephyr Queen who looks ready now third up from a spell. Can go forward and control the race from the front now that she’s fit. Won third up over a similar distance here at Belmont last prep, and ended the prep with a win in this grade.

(5) Secret Statue is the other one I’ll be backing. I was keen on him last start when he went down as favourite. He ducked out and ran sideways a couple of times in the straight which cost him the race. Can win if he’s on his best behaviour.

(4) Holy Ghost is another horse that doesn’t win often. He’s got a big finish on his day but he just continues finding a few too good.

Tip: (1) Zephyr Queen $5.10 Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (5) Secret Statue $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Zephyr Queen, 0.5 units WIN Secret Statue

0

Race 5

Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw) (1200m)
3:57pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw) (1200m)
3:57pm (AEDT)

1. Puli (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (62kg) T: Darren Taylor
2.72.72.72.72.62.7
2. Agent Jay (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (61.5kg) T: S J Miller
1111111111.211
3. Ohbeeh (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58.5kg) T: J P Taylor
98.5888.48
4. Apollo (5) J: Peter Knuckey (57kg) T: S J Wolfe
1818171719.219
5. Devoted Star (8) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: G & A Williams
2.92.92.8332.8
6. Island Missile (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
11910109.410
7. Regal Magic (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: E A Martinovich
1111121212.212
8. Horizon (9) J: Jason Whiting (55.5kg) T: G L Carige
919171717381
9. Dolly Em (3) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54kg) T: D Miller
201201151151181151

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Puli carries the grandstand in weight here, but I think he can do it. He’s got a great little record and bounced back to winning ways with a tough win last start. His record over this track and distance is outstanding with three wins and a 2nd from four starts. Should find the front and be tough to get past again.

(6) Island Missile might be value at $16. He ran super first up and his run last start in a strong race had merit. Inside draw here might see him sit closer and he has a great third up record.

(2) Agent Jay will improve from that first up run.

(3) Obeeh won’t lead here which is the query, while (5) Devoted Star ran well first up as always but her second up record is ordinary.

Tip: (1) Puli $3.20 Bet365

Value: (6) Island Missile $16 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Puli, 0.25 units WIN Island Missile

0

Race 6

Byron Bay Premium Lager-Bm78+ (1000m)
4:39pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Byron Bay Premium Lager-Bm78+ (1000m)
4:39pm (AEDT)

1. Flow (6) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (62kg) T: Martin Allan
616161616361
2. Nerodio (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
2.92.82.72.92.82.7
3. Don't Fuss (1) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: D & B Pearce
342626263226
4. Panzdown (2) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: Simon Miller
2.72.82.62.82.852.6
5. We've Got Dreams (9) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: M L Lane
201818181918
6. Guns Of Navarone (8) J: Brad Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham
7. Highland Beat (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54kg) T: C & M Gangemi
1616151613.215
8. Madam Torio (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: Martin Allan
98.57.598.68
9. This'll Testya (7) J: William Pike (54kg) T: A G Durrant
4.854.854.754.8

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

This is a race in two, surely, so I’ll be keeping it very simple.

(4) Panzdown is the new kid on the block, winning four from four this prep. He now steps up in grade to a 78+, a fair jump from his last-start win in 66+ grade, but he was arrogant in that race and just keeps getting better. The only query would be getting back to Belmont for the first time since his debut prep, but his form is imperious and he gets a lovely map.

(2) Nerodio is the horse he’ll have to beat. He’s got a phenomenal record at Belmont, with seven wins and two 2nds from 10 starts at the track. He’s undefeated at the track and distance and comes off a 72+ win, though he probably would have been run down by Battle Storm if that horse didn’t lose all momentum at the 150m.

Looks a race between them so will be backing Panzdown, saving Nerodio.

Tip: (4) Panzdown $3.20 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Nerodio $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Panzdown, 1 unit WIN Nerodio

0

Race 7

Crown Perth (Bm72+) (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Crown Perth (Bm72+) (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

1. Not To Be Mist (4) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: A G Durrant
87.57.587.47.5
2. Lordhelpmerun (6) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
312621213134
3. Naughty By Nature (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: J F Miller
33.133.133
4. Son Of Bacchus (3) J: Paul Harvey (56.5kg) T: Rhys Radford
5. Staralign (1) J: Brad Rawiller (56.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
66665.66
6. Zaratite (11) J: William Pike (56kg) T: G & A Williams
87.57.588.17.5
7. Bad Wolf (9) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: A W Maley
414151513851
8. Playing Marika (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
1516151513.817
9. Aberdeen Queen (8) J: Chris Parnham (54.5kg) T: L Smith
3.93.73.43.53.753.7
10. Karijini Aurora (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54kg) T: Summer Dickson
273131312934
11. Trump This (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
616161617371

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(9) Aberdeen Queen is flying this prep. She was enormous when winning first up at Northam after sitting three-wide the trip, and her run in defeat last start was eye-catching. She came from last and reeled off a sensational final 400m to be beaten 0.75L on the line. Chris Parnham replaces Brad Rawiller today and with any luck at all, she’s the horse to beat.

(4) Son Of Bacchus was a very good winner first up but just didn’t handle the soft ground last start. If the track gets back to good here, he’s a live chance at big odds.

(3) Naughty By Nature is ready to win and (1) Not To Be Mist will be thereabouts.

Tip: (9) Aberdeen Queen $4.00 Bet365

Value: (4) Son Of Bacchus $18 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Aberdeen Queen, 0.25 units WIN Son Of Bacchus

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Race 8

Seacorp - Hyperion Stakes (1600m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Seacorp - Hyperion Stakes (1600m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

1. Valour Road (4) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: Simon Miller
9.51010109.811
2. Come Play With Me (13) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: A G Durrant
414141414351
3. The Velvet King (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: D T Mcauliffe
2.42.352.32.42.22.25
4. Taxagano (3) J: Troy Turner (59kg) T: F R Kersley
9171101101131126
5. Money Matters (10) J: Joseph Azzopardi (59kg) T: A G Durrant
415141414751
6. Dig Deep (1) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: D & B Pearce
1313131313.213
7. Massimo (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
192121212023
8. Arctic Stream (12) J: Paul Harvey (59kg) T: R W Price
126126101101161151
9. Uni Time (9) J: Alan Kennedy (59kg) T: Ms S L Miller
262626312731
10. Kay Cee (7) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
151517161614
11. Dance Music (6) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: Simon Miller
98.58.58.58.78.5
12. She's Alight (8) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: A D Mathews
617181718181
13. Leading Girl (11) J: William Pike (57kg) T: G & A Williams
443.744.254

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 5:57pm (AEDT)

(3) The Velvet King was dominant first up in the Belmont Sprint and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He has a great record at the track and distance and goes well second up. Gets a lovely draw and the only little negative would be if the track was good as he prefers it as wet as possible.

(10) Kay Cee was dreadful first up but she put in a similar effort first up last prep before storming home to win second up. I’d be very wary of her here as she’s undefeated from three starts when second up.

(1) Valour Road is racing well and gets a better draw today.

Tip: (3) The Velvet King $2.90 Bet365

Value: (10) Kay Cee $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN The Velvet King, 0.5 units WIN Kay Cee

0

Race 9

Amelia Park (Bm66+) (2200m)
6:35pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Amelia Park (Bm66+) (2200m)
6:35pm (AEDT)

1. Black Shadow (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: J P Taylor
54.84.64.44.54.4
2. Secret Pearl (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: Ricky Moss
1414161516.215
3. Blackwater Bay (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
43.83.73.63.853.6
4. Born To Try (8) J: William Pike (59kg) T: L Smith
3.43.53.63.73.453.5
5. Decoy Noxious (1) J: Brad Parnham (58.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
273131262834
6. Uncle Lino (15) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (58.5kg) T: Raymond Vincent
313434313541
7. Bonneville Black (13) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (58kg) T: F R Kersley
464141413941
8. Trade Thunder (5) J: Ms Madi Derrick (57kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
2121212119.421
9. Lady Duckworth (12) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: Darren Taylor
8.587.588.67.5
10. Aragain (11) J: Jordan Turner (55.5kg) T: D L Morton
11. Brother's Keeper (7) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55.5kg) T: Felicity Forbes-Ives
91126101101131126
12. All Man (4) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
414134343241
13. Celtic Diva (2) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: A D Mathews
313131342834
14. Juliette (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: J T Warwick
262126212326
15. Midnight Banquet (14) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (55kg) T: O J Cocking
9110110181111126

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 6:37pm (AEDT)

It was tough viewing for those of us on (4) Born To Try last start when she was my best bet of the day. She was boxed in until the 100m mark and the race was all over when she got out. Pike goes on today, replacing Chris Parnham, and she should be even better off for that run given she was 1600m up to 2100m there.

(9) Lady Duckworth only comes off a Class 3 win but there’s plenty to like about how she’s going. That was her first run in six weeks so should come on from that and she just continues to get better with every start.

(3) Blackwater Bay and (1) Black Shadow next best.

Tip: (4) Born To Try $3.30 TopSport

Also Backing: (9) Lady Duckworth $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Born To Try, 0.5 units WIN Lady Duckworth

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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