Belmont Racing Tips: Saturday, June 12th

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

(5) City Circle doesn’t have a good record here at Belmont but it may be more so the wet ground that is the reason she hasn’t run well here often in the past. Her best two runs at Belmont have come on good ground, and you just have to look at her record on rain-affected ground to see how bad she is on it (13 starts, no wins). Drawn well, Chris Parnham on, hopefully the track gets to good and she should be competitive.

(6) Express Time was well-backed first up but didn’t fire. Notably, comes here on the one-week back-up after that and I suspect we’ll see an improved performance.

(3) Bedouin Belle has a good first up record and hasn’t missed a place in five starts here at Belmont, so should be around the mark.

(1) Fiery Bay drops back from 1500m to 1000m which is a query as he’s never won over this distance. Freshened up with three weeks between runs, Pike back on, market will be telling as he ran up to the drift last start.

Tip: (5) City Circle $6.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (6) Express Time $4.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN City Circle, 0.5 units WIN Express Time

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Think the market has it pretty well spot on here.

Happy to take on (1) Bandalera Beau who got a good run last time out and got the bob. I thought the map here from the wide gate would make things much tougher – either has to work forward, go right back or sit wide.

The best run in the race last start probably looked to be (2) Guard The Safe, who also got a great run through the field on the turn and missed on the bob. In actuality, Bandalera Beau ran the faster final 400m and 200m splits.

The run of the race was actually (3) Disengo, who settled three-wide at the back of the field and had to come very wide in the straight, while the other two took inside runs and saved all the ground. He finished off in basically the same final 400m and 200m as the winner, it was just positions in run that made the difference. Have him on top but no bet at the current prices.

Could see sharp improvement from (5) Needs Time, who drew 13 over 1000m on debut and draws 1 over 1400m here. Could be the blowout chance in the race.

Tip: (3) Disengo $3.00 Bet365

Value: (5) Needs Time $18 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) The Spruiker here from the low draw. Won at big odds first up where he beat a very handy field and he ended last preparation running 2^nd to La Farola, which is also a good form reference. Can sit handy from the draw, won second up last prep and looks to be an improving type.

(1) Son Son was defeated as favourite last start but he was unable to dictate the race up front, having to take a trail behind a tearaway leader. Much better suited being able to dictate here and if he gets cheap sectionals, he’ll be very hard to run down.

(3) She’s God To You ran 3^rd in Listed company last weekend and drops in grade on the quick back-up. Will be very competitive.

(7) Jedi Mind looks short enough at $5.50, coming off a victory over Allegiance who ran terribly on Wednesday.

Will take on the favourite She’s God To You and back The Spruiker, with a saver on Son Son.

Tip: (4) The Spruiker $3.75 Bet365

Saver: (1) Son Son $3.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN The Spruiker, 0.5 units WIN Son Son

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Have to bet here with the current favourite being (2) Beat The Bro at $2.80. He’s never far away, always runs well, but rarely wins. He’s placed in 12 of his 15 starts but has only won two of them, so he’s hard to back with confidence.

Rather be with (1) Zephyr Queen who looks ready now third up from a spell. Can go forward and control the race from the front now that she’s fit. Won third up over a similar distance here at Belmont last prep, and ended the prep with a win in this grade.

(5) Secret Statue is the other one I’ll be backing. I was keen on him last start when he went down as favourite. He ducked out and ran sideways a couple of times in the straight which cost him the race. Can win if he’s on his best behaviour.

(4) Holy Ghost is another horse that doesn’t win often. He’s got a big finish on his day but he just continues finding a few too good.

Tip: (1) Zephyr Queen $5.10 Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (5) Secret Statue $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Zephyr Queen, 0.5 units WIN Secret Statue

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Puli carries the grandstand in weight here, but I think he can do it. He’s got a great little record and bounced back to winning ways with a tough win last start. His record over this track and distance is outstanding with three wins and a 2^nd from four starts. Should find the front and be tough to get past again.

(6) Island Missile might be value at $16. He ran super first up and his run last start in a strong race had merit. Inside draw here might see him sit closer and he has a great third up record.

(2) Agent Jay will improve from that first up run.

(3) Obeeh won’t lead here which is the query, while (5) Devoted Star ran well first up as always but her second up record is ordinary.

Tip: (1) Puli $3.20 Bet365

Value: (6) Island Missile $16 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Puli, 0.25 units WIN Island Missile

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

This is a race in two, surely, so I’ll be keeping it very simple.

(4) Panzdown is the new kid on the block, winning four from four this prep. He now steps up in grade to a 78+, a fair jump from his last-start win in 66+ grade, but he was arrogant in that race and just keeps getting better. The only query would be getting back to Belmont for the first time since his debut prep, but his form is imperious and he gets a lovely map.

(2) Nerodio is the horse he’ll have to beat. He’s got a phenomenal record at Belmont, with seven wins and two 2nds from 10 starts at the track. He’s undefeated at the track and distance and comes off a 72+ win, though he probably would have been run down by Battle Storm if that horse didn’t lose all momentum at the 150m.

Looks a race between them so will be backing Panzdown, saving Nerodio.

Tip: (4) Panzdown $3.20 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Nerodio $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Panzdown, 1 unit WIN Nerodio

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(9) Aberdeen Queen is flying this prep. She was enormous when winning first up at Northam after sitting three-wide the trip, and her run in defeat last start was eye-catching. She came from last and reeled off a sensational final 400m to be beaten 0.75L on the line. Chris Parnham replaces Brad Rawiller today and with any luck at all, she’s the horse to beat.

(4) Son Of Bacchus was a very good winner first up but just didn’t handle the soft ground last start. If the track gets back to good here, he’s a live chance at big odds.

(3) Naughty By Nature is ready to win and (1) Not To Be Mist will be thereabouts.

Tip: (9) Aberdeen Queen $4.00 Bet365

Value: (4) Son Of Bacchus $18 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Aberdeen Queen, 0.25 units WIN Son Of Bacchus

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 5:57pm (AEDT)

(3) The Velvet King was dominant first up in the Belmont Sprint and there’s no reason he can’t win again here. He has a great record at the track and distance and goes well second up. Gets a lovely draw and the only little negative would be if the track was good as he prefers it as wet as possible.

(10) Kay Cee was dreadful first up but she put in a similar effort first up last prep before storming home to win second up. I’d be very wary of her here as she’s undefeated from three starts when second up.

(1) Valour Road is racing well and gets a better draw today.

Tip: (3) The Velvet King $2.90 Bet365

Value: (10) Kay Cee $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN The Velvet King, 0.5 units WIN Kay Cee

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 6:37pm (AEDT)

It was tough viewing for those of us on (4) Born To Try last start when she was my best bet of the day. She was boxed in until the 100m mark and the race was all over when she got out. Pike goes on today, replacing Chris Parnham, and she should be even better off for that run given she was 1600m up to 2100m there.

(9) Lady Duckworth only comes off a Class 3 win but there’s plenty to like about how she’s going. That was her first run in six weeks so should come on from that and she just continues to get better with every start.

(3) Blackwater Bay and (1) Black Shadow next best.

Tip: (4) Born To Try $3.30 TopSport

Also Backing: (9) Lady Duckworth $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Born To Try, 0.5 units WIN Lady Duckworth