Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 11th

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

Kicking off the day by taking on the odds-on favourite (2) Wuhan Warrior, who waltzed in by 6L last start. The key factor that day was the decision to lead with him. He’d shown blistering speed in his trials but they’d been taking a sit with him on race day, however once he found the front last start he was never getting run down.

No knock on the favourite, but I really like (1) Trix Of The Trade, who backed up a number of impressive trials with an arrogant win on debut, which was on the same day as Wuhan Warrior. They ran in different races but both ran over 1200m. Wuhan Warrior ran a faster overall time and a faster final 600m, but Trix Of The Trade wasn’t asked for his maximum effort at any stage. The win was super impressive and I think he had one or two more gears left to go to, so willing to ignore his slower time.

(6) Wommel Wock can improve on what he did last start, while (5) Warpipes showed a bit in his debut prep.

Tip: (1) Trix Of The Trade $2.70 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Trix Of The Trade

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

Surely this is the race for (1) Success Play. I’ve always had time for this horse since his enormous debut run in the Crystal Slipper Stakes. He was unsuited first up on the Heavy 10 and Chris Parnham experimented a bit with him by coming to the outside fence in search of better ground. He ran well, now drops from a Saturday race back to a midweek maiden, draws well and should be awfully hard to beat.

(7) Secret Deploy would be my pick of the two Durrant runners at the prices.

Tip: (1) Success Play $3.10 TAB SCRATCHED

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Absolutely no way you could tempt me into betting into this race.

(6) Valbani lands on top almost by default, after two promising runs to kick off her career. She ran home strongly on debut and then ran 2nd to Wise Cracker at Pinjarra. Concern with that form though as Wise Cracker was poor at his next start. Other concern is where she will get to from barrier 10 with the rail out 21m.

(1) Surveillance is rarely far away but he’s had 13 cracks at it. Will likely be in the money again but he tends to find one or two better.

(8) False Evidence won a trial in OK style recently and can be competitive, as can a few others.

Tip: (6) Valbani $3.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the Durrant-trained (3) Born To Rule here, who returns to racing off a 13-month spell. He’s won both trials leading into his first up run today and the form from his debut prep is very strong, with placings behind Dunbar, Chantorque and All Day Session, while he finished ahead of Billy Ain’t Silly, and started $4.20 against Clairvoyance.

(1) Poker Face couldn’t keep her winning run going last start but with that said, she was completely slaughtered. The apprentice made her work overtime outside the leader and she was a sitting duck. She should jump straight to the front here and be hard to run down.

(6) Saturday Sun was given a very soft time of things first up. He was fresh off a long layoff but Harvey barely moved a muscle on him. The apprentice goes on today which doesn’t really suggest he’ll go any better, but he does have a decent second up record and if there’s positive market support, the alarm bells will be ringing.

Harvey instead rides (8) Somethingready who he also rode last start. Will be thereabouts.

Tip: (3) Born To Rule $3.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Born To Rule

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

I wrote in our horses to follow piece on Monday that I thought the Darren McAuliffe stable would be one to follow in the next month or more. The stable had one placing from 23 starters in June/July, but already have a winner and three placings from six starters in August. They are represented by (5) Rebel Heart here, who was last seen running in the Belmont Oaks five weeks ago. Has been freshened up for this and Pike goes straight on. Expecting her to be competitive.

(1) Ghobella was very heavily backed and won easily here last time out, but it’s a bit of a different set up today. She drew barrier 1 on that occasion for Kyra Yuill, but gets barrier 7 today for apprentice Keshaw Dhurun. No reason she can’t go close again but she’s short enough at $2.50.

(4) Stocktaka was very well backed last start so be wary if the money comes again, while (3) Strawberry Mist was sound first up and can improve.

Tip: (5) Rebel Heart $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rebel Heart

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

WA staying races are always sketchy affairs.

(3) Lollipop Lane has had two runs back over the 2100m now so should be cherry ripe for this third up today. Her run last start was very odd  – she was under the stick about 600m from home and looked completely gone, but then came again through the line. Not sure whether they go forward or go back like this did last start but it looks a really good race for her.

(2) Darcele has found form since stepping up to 2100m, winning two starts back and then running 2nd last time out. No reason she can’t be very hard to beat again from the favourable draw.

(4) Juliette made good ground from the back of the field in the same race as Darcele last start. May be able to settle closer from the better draw here.

Tip: (3) Lollipop Lane $3.10 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

(3) Choice Bid broke his maiden three starts ago and has since run twice in Saturday grade, but now drops back to a Class 1 on a Wednesday. He should be very hard to beat here if he holds his form.

I said earlier I expected the McAuliffe stable to be one to follow in the next month, and they are represented here by (8) Under The Rader. She’s first up from a spell with one trial under the belt, and the horse which won the trial then came out and won first up. Draws the inside here, should jump and lead and be there for a long way.

Tip: (3) Choice Bid $2.40 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 6:21pm (AEDT)

(1) General Grant might just be better than this lot. He won on debut last prep but failed to go on with it in two subsequent starts. Won his trial leading into today, 1400m shouldn’t be a problem fresh and he looks to have a class edge.

(8) Special Picture is over the odds at $19. She came from last to first at Northam first up and although she beat absolutely nothing, I think it was a decent win. This is her first real prep with the new stable. She’s had five starts for them now but the other four were after they got her mid-prep off her former stable. Likely to get a long way back again from barrier 13 but she might be up to a race like this.

(12) Marlini is the other at knockout odds that can be included. Her last two runs haven’t been bad at all.

Tip: (1) General Grant $2.70 Bet365

Value: (8) Special Picture $19 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN General Grant, 0.5 units WIN Special Picture

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 7:02pm (AEDT)

If the form of the Maley stable from Saturday continues today then (7) Jag The Joker will take out the last, with William Pike booked to ride. She ran well at Northam last start but just found one better in the form of Fairy Fast, who might have a bit of talent. Draws well, hasn’t been far away all prep and should go well again.

(1) Ohbeeh is another that is never far away. He makes his own luck on speed and has five placings from six starts at this track and distance. Handles all conditions and will be tough to run down again.

(4) He’s A Gunslinger ran well last start, (8) Snippy Miss has some ability and (9) Angelique’s Fame isn’t hopeless.

Tip: (7) Jag The Joker $3.10 Neds

Betting Strategy: No bet