Racing Tips

Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 1st

Tim Geers previews the nine-race card at Belmont on Wednesday, with his best bet in the last race.

by
Tim Geers
30 November 2021

Midweek racing continues at Belmont today as we build towards the final Group 1 of The Masters carnival in Perth.

We have nine races on today’s card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 13m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below and is in some very good positions having taken early prices in the Premium Discord group yesterday.

Find his tips for every race below.

Best Bet: Race 9 – (5) Go Forward

Race 1

Free Entry Belmont Park-Rs0ly (1300m)
3:34pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Free Entry Belmont Park-Rs0ly (1300m) 3:34pm (AEDT)
1. Magic To Exceed (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (59.5kg) T: S & J Casey
2. Astrape (1) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: D L Morton	2.2	2.3	2.35	2.35	2.1	2.4
3. Kentucky Blue (3) J: Steven Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	18	18	17	17	18.2	18
4. Isola Bay (6) J: Ms Victoria Corver (57kg) T: A G Durrant	4	3.9	3.7	4	4.4	3.6
5. Ultimate Style (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: D & B Pearce	19	21	21	26	16.6	21
6. Yes Man (7) J: Andrew Castle (57kg) T: M Knox	19	18	15	14	14.4	18
7. My Boy Eddy (2) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: A D Mathews	7	7	7	7.5	6.5	7
8. My Dilemma (8) J: William Pike (56kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	4.5	4.4	4	4	4.55	4.4

(2) Astrape was terrible last start but she did have to do some early work the find the front over the 1000m and was gone fairly quickly upon straightening. Up to 1300m today means the tempo won’t be as fierce early and Chris Parnham takes over from the apprentice with the inside draw to boot.

(6) Yes Man is a decent price here. He ran 4^th to Thomas Magnum first up despite sitting wide and then won at Narrogin. Obviously this is a stiffer test but it’s not a race with a huge amount of depth.

(7) My Boy Eddie was a good run first up from the wide draw after getting well back. That form behind Acefire looks pretty strong and from the lower draw today he could settle a touch closer.

(8) My Dilemma has obvious claims with Pike on for Brock Lewthwaite.

Tip: (6) Yes Man E/W $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m)
4:09pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m) 4:09pm (AEDT)
1. Count Grundy (10) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: R W Price	7	7	7	7	6.5	7
2. Market Stryke (3) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Simon Miller	2	2	1.9	1.9	1.86	2
3. It's Just A Gift (9) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Ryan Hill
4. Phelamanga (1) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: W J Bradshaw	91	101	101	101	89	101
5. The Panzer (11) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley	35	34	34	34	30	34
6. Petite La Femme (12) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: C G Willis	26	26	26	26	22	26
7. Ishinca View (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Ms A King	35	31	34	34	32	34
8. Mia Nobile (6) J: Taj Dyson (56kg) T: G N Davies	16	16	16	17	14.6	16
9. Chad's Me Dad (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56kg) T: Ms P Kenney
10. Hart Trader (7) J: Peter Knuckey (54.5kg) T: F R Kersley	2.7	2.8	2.8	2.9	2.95	2.8
11. Devil Girl (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham	23	26	21	26	26.5	23
12. Elite Jewel (5) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham	61	71	71	71	55	71
13. It's Just A Gift (9) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Ryan Hill
14. Chad's Me Dad (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56kg) T: Ms P Kenney

(2) Market Stryke looks hard to go past here. Has been knocking on the door in his first three career starts and finds a nice race today.

(10) Hart Trader looks the only danger in the race. Ran well without much luck first up and ran home strongly for 2^nd last time out. Market Stryke will have a big head start which could be the telling factor.

(1) Count Grundy was fair first up and will continue to improve up in dsitance.

Tip: (2) Market Stryke $2.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Market Stryke

Race 3

Amelia Park Mdn (1400m)
4:44pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Amelia Park Mdn (1400m) 4:44pm (AEDT)
1. Keep It Hush (11) J: Taj Dyson (58kg) T: Daniel O'connor	61	67	61	61	53	71
2. Roch Legacy (13) J: William Pike (58kg) T: D & B Pearce	9	9.5	10	10	8.4	10
3. Darn Noble (2) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: Ms S L Miller	18	18	17	19	19.2	17
4. Unitool (9) J: Ms Angela Johnston (58kg) T: Kirryn Scallan	251	301	201	201	201	251
5. Westriver Miracle (6) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Ms A King	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.65	2.6
6. War Plan (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Theres Andersson	151	151	101	101	121	151
7. Almaher Man (10) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley	2.9	3	2.9	2.9	2.75	3
8. I Can See Clara (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: T M Andrews	16	16	15	17	13.4	15
9. City Of Sin (1) J: Troy Turner (56.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson	18	19	19	21	18.4	19
10. Vital Times (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Fenella Martin	14	14	14	15	13.8	14
11. Rubilicious Rose (12) J: Andrew Castle (56kg) T: Brian Rogers	71	81	71	71	81	81
12. Dark Gossip (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Ricky Moss	91	91	81	91	65	81
13. Rommel's War (8) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
14. Rommel's War (8) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham

(5) Westriver Miracle was the run of the day first up, flashing home from nearly last, which was against the pattern of the day. Then last start was completely and utterly slaughtered, held up the entire straight after leading early. Back to a maiden today, gets the senior jockey on and with any luck looks awfully hard to beat. The premium Discord group locked in $3.50 yesterday and it’s now into $2.30 best price.

Only danger in my opinion is the co-favourite (7) Almaher Man who was plunged in betting last start and ran 2^nd to a smart one in Kolchino. Goes forward and is the one Westriver Miracle has to run down. Be very surprised if one of these two didn’t win the race. Backing Westriver Miracle and saving on Almaher Man.

Tip: (5) Westriver Miracle $2.30 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Westriver Miracle

Race 4

The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1000m)
5:19pm (AEDT)

Race 4 The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1000m) 5:19pm (AEDT)
1. Storm Commander (6) J: Chris Parnham (60.5kg) T: N D Parnham	9.5	10	10	11	8.7	10
2. He's On Fire (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: S & J Casey
3. Bitofmerit (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59.5kg) T: Michael Campbell	2	1.95	2	1.9	1.82	2.15
4. Crypto Queen (1) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: Brian Kersley	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.7	5
5. Nobel Knight (10) J: Shaun O'donnell (59.5kg) T: M J Duffy	35	34	34	34	36	34
6. Paeroa Lad (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: M W Bairstow	21	21	21	21	21.5	21
7. Eliminate (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham	23	26	26	26	23.5	26
8. Looksnoteverything (11) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (58kg) T: Ms C Godden	81	81	71	81	83	71
9. Saasmit (7) J: Ms Holly Watson (57.5kg) T: Luke Fernie	23	26	21	26	25.5	23
10. Story Book (5) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: T M Andrews	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.15	4.2
11. Extorio (3) J: Taj Dyson (54.5kg) T: M Santich	35	34	31	34	34	31
12. He's On Fire (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: S & J Casey

(3) Bitofmerit looks a great bet. Backed up his very good trials last prep with a dominant debut victory over Buzzoom, who then went on to win in Stakes grade this prep. Only query is carrying 59.5kg first up with no public trial but think he’s a good horse and can take care of this field. We took the opening price yesterday of $2.70 and he’s been heavily backed into even money.

Tip: (3) Bitofmerit $2.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Bitofmerit

Race 5

Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (2000m)
5:54pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (2000m) 5:54pm (AEDT)
1. Pale Rider (11) J: Mitchell Pateman (60.5kg) T: E A Martinovich	2.5	2.8	2.9	3	2.65	2.9
2. Savvy Dan (12) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: D L Morton
3. Arnray (6) J: Jason Whiting (59kg) T: Kirryn Scallan	34	31	31	34	35	31
4. Mong Khon (16) J: Ms Victoria Corver (59kg) T: J N Pateman	21	20	19	19	16	21
5. Red Hot Hope (15) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	9.1	9
6. Calling Card (1) J: Ms Kate Witten (58kg) T: K R Mahoney	101	126	101	101	131	126
7. Dancing Jack (13) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: Anthony Oram	14	13	12	12	10.6	13
8. Circle The Sun (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: A G Durrant	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	4.8	5
9. Lady Of Babylon (5) J: Brad Parnham (57.5kg) T: V A Brockman	6.5	6	5.5	6	6.8	5.5
10. Frequent Friar (7) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne	14	14	14	14	11.8	14
11. Paigey's Turn (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
12. Fairdelicious (10) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: B M Smithall	41	41	41	41	41	41
13. Fuel The Friar (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: D R Harrison	35	34	34	41	26	34
14. Bryce Road (2) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (55kg) T: K J Reeves
15. Bandalera Miss (3) J: William Pike (54kg) T: F R Kersley
16. Royal Choisir (14) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Vaughn Sigley
17. Paigey's Turn (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller

(1) Pale Rider carries top weight from the wide gate today but drops heavily in class today. He ran 3^rd behind It’sarayday in the Fairetha Stakes two starts ago and then failed in the WA Guineas last time out. Now drops back to a Class 1 and steps up to 2000m for the first time. Class should take him a long way.

(9) Lady of Babylon broke the maiden last start and I think is capable of making the step up to this company. Draws well and goes close today I think.

(4) Mong Khon will go forward and is always around the mark in these sorts of races. He just tends to find one or two too good.

(5) Red Hot Hope was good last start from the back of the field but does draw wide again and will have plenty to do.

(2) Arnray hit the line well last start and should enjoy a good run again. Was awful two starts ago but either side of that he’s run well. Racing out of his grade though.

Tip: (1) Pale Rider $3.30 TAB

Value: (9) Lady of Babylon $6.60 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 6

Morley Growers Market Hcp (C3) (1650m)
6:35pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Morley Growers Market Hcp (C3) (1650m) 6:35pm (AEDT)
1. Great Waters (5) J: Mitchell Pateman (60kg) T: Martin Allan	6.5	6.5	6	6	6.6	6.5
2. Sentimental Friend (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (59.5kg) T: Ms K Pisconeri	6	6	6	6	5.1	6
3. He's A Lucky Lad (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
4. Cable Guy (4) J: Andrew Castle (57.5kg) T: M Knox	11	11	11	12	11.4	11
5. Wakan Tanka (11) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham	16	16	15	16	13.2	15
6. Holyoake (2) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Brett Pope	13	13	13	13	11.2	13
7. Playing Up (10) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: Fenella Martin	20	19	19	19	20.5	19
8. Champagne Gal (1) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach	21	21	21	21	17.8	21
9. Missalfie (7) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: W J Bradshaw	35	34	34	34	36	34
10. Richardson (8) J: Ms Fiona Bell (54kg) T: G L Carige	91	101	81	81	69	101
11. Sporty Spice (9) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54kg) T: Matthew Scott	126	151	101	101	131	151
12. He's A Lucky Lad (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant

(3) He’s A Lucky Lad won two on the bounce before a midfield finish in the G2 WA Guineas last start. Drops back to a Class 3 today and should be winning this with any luck.

(2) Sentimental Friend improved last start and goes well third up so can improve again but doubt it can beat the favourite.

Tip: (3) He's A Lucky Lad $1.80 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 7

Western Racepix Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:10pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Western Racepix Hcp (C3) (1200m) 7:10pm (AEDT)
1. Cross Statement (10) J: Ms Holly Watson (60.5kg) T: J P Taylor	2	2.05	2	1.95	2.05	2.1
2. Johnny Angel (4) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: Michael Grantham
3. Lil' Red Bikini (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: P W Mcleod
4. Oceanzara (2) J: Taj Dyson (57.5kg) T: Kirsten Melis	14	14	13	15	15.2	13
5. The Anvil (3) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: G A Crispin	16	16	16	16	14.8	16
6. Miss Quoted (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (57kg) T: G M Ayres	17	16	15	16	13.8	15
7. Saturn Black (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: Deborah Murphy	5.5	5.5	5.5	6	4.95	5.5
8. Tibetan Black (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: Ms S L Miller	31	34	34	34	32	34
9. Western Rhythm (7) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	5	5	5	5.5	5.1	5
10. Alexis Olympia (11) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (54kg) T: Michael Hackett	23	21	21	20	23.5	23
11. Sea Waif (1) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Brett Pope	16	16	16	16	12.8	16
12. Lil' Red Bikini (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: P W Mcleod

(1) Cross Statement is racing in good form and clung on for a deserved win last start after two 2nds to open the campaign. Goes forward and takes catching again in a weak field.

(9) Western Rhythm gets Pike on first up with no trial for Brock Lewthwaite. This horse showed plenty of talent early but failed to go on with it. Can run a big race fresh today if he has it right.

(7) Saturn Black was fair first up and (10) Alexis Olympia has been good in recent starts.

Tip: (9) Western Rhythm $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Western Rhythm

Race 8

Quayclean Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Quayclean Hcp (C3) (1200m) 7:40pm (AEDT)
1. War Warrior (10) J: Brad Rawiller (61kg) T: D L Morton	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.2	2.85	3.2
2. Blow Me Out (9) J: Taj Dyson (59kg) T: Brett Pope	6	6	6	6.5	6.6	6
3. Weona Brute (2) J: Austin Galati (59kg) T: Steele Casey	15	14	13	13	15.2	15
4. Red Inferno (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: G M Ayres	6.5	6	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
5. Cheval De Vaga (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (57kg) T: Meryl Hayley	17	17	16	18	18.2	16
6. Gold Merits (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56.5kg) T: J P Taylor	27	26	26	26	20.5	26
7. Looks Like Magic (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: B H Hyde	21	19	17	17	21	19
8. Reaction (6) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: D J Waldock	17	17	17	17	17.2	17
9. Reciting (11) J: Troy Turner (55.5kg) T: C H Webster	18	18	18	20	20	18
10. My Marlaina (5) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	3.6	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.4	3.8
11. Amber Mamba (1) J: Ms Lisa Staples (54kg) T: Bill Spencer	61	67	61	67	63	61

(1) War Warrior carries the full 61kg today from a wide gate but it might not stop him winning. He’s nominated to go around on the weekend as well so if he wins this we may well see him in Saturday company in a matter of days.

(10) My Marlaina looks the danger with Pike taking over. Will go forward and be the horse War Warrior has to chase down.

(2) Red Inferno is racing in good form but steps up to 1200m and has failed in two attempts in the past at this trip.

Tip: (1) War Warrior $3.40 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN War Warrior

Race 9

Salinger (Rs0ly) (1000m)
8:10pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Salinger (Rs0ly) (1000m) 8:10pm (AEDT)
1. My Demi (5) J: Ms Kate Southam (61kg) T: Michael Hackett	19	19	19	20	20.5	19
2. Wiener Waltz (11) J: Ms Rosie Mahony (60kg) T: Steele Casey	16	16	17	17	17.2	17
3. Eeyore Wayz (12) J: Craig Staples (59.5kg) T: Raquel Reid	5.5	6	6	6.5	6.4	6
4. Human Nature (13) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: Sean Rains	12	12	12	13	13.2	12
5. Go Forward (7) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi	2.2	2.2	2.15	2.1	2	2.25
6. Requisition (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: Brett Pope	7	7	6.5	6.5	7.1	7
7. Agent Kensington (4) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: L P Luciani	9	8.5	8	9	7	8
8. Blankenberge (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (56kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	14	13	12	13	12.4	12
9. Gessato (2) J: Peter Knuckey (54.5kg) T: S & J Casey	31	26	26	26	25.5	26
10. Stable Secret (3) J: Ms Sasha Starley (54.5kg) T: B P Graham	35	34	34	34	36	34
11. Boyish (9) J: Ms Angela Johnston (54kg) T: Ms K Farrell	101	101	101	101	91	101
12. Dam Ready (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: M W Bairstow	26	34	34	34	24	41
13. Wednesday (6) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: C R Green

(5) Go Forward was super two starts ago when bolting in by 3.5L. Last start he just got way too far back but ran home in by far the fastest final 400m of the meeting. Happy to go again today from the better draw.

I don’t think there’s anything in the race that can beat him and once again, the Premium Discord group took a good price yesterday locking in $2.60.

Tip: (5) Go Forward $2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Go Forward

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.