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Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 1st

Tim Geers previews the nine-race card at Belmont on Wednesday, with his best bet in the last race.

belmont racing tips

Midweek racing continues at Belmont today as we build towards the final Group 1 of The Masters carnival in Perth.

We have nine races on today’s card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 13m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below and is in some very good positions having taken early prices in the Premium Discord group yesterday.

Find his tips for every race below.

Best Bet: Race 9 – (5) Go Forward

Discord

203902

Race 1

Free Entry Belmont Park-Rs0ly (1300m)
3:34pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Free Entry Belmont Park-Rs0ly (1300m)
3:34pm (AEDT)

1. Magic To Exceed (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (59.5kg) T: S & J Casey
2. Astrape (1) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: D L Morton
2.22.32.352.352.12.4
3. Kentucky Blue (3) J: Steven Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham
1818171718.218
4. Isola Bay (6) J: Ms Victoria Corver (57kg) T: A G Durrant
43.93.744.43.6
5. Ultimate Style (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: D & B Pearce
1921212616.621
6. Yes Man (7) J: Andrew Castle (57kg) T: M Knox
1918151414.418
7. My Boy Eddy (2) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: A D Mathews
7777.56.57
8. My Dilemma (8) J: William Pike (56kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
4.54.4444.554.4

(2) Astrape was terrible last start but she did have to do some early work the find the front over the 1000m and was gone fairly quickly upon straightening. Up to 1300m today means the tempo won’t be as fierce early and Chris Parnham takes over from the apprentice with the inside draw to boot.

(6) Yes Man is a decent price here. He ran 4th to Thomas Magnum first up despite sitting wide and then won at Narrogin. Obviously this is a stiffer test but it’s not a race with a huge amount of depth.

(7) My Boy Eddie was a good run first up from the wide draw after getting well back. That form behind Acefire looks pretty strong and from the lower draw today he could settle a touch closer.

(8) My Dilemma has obvious claims with Pike on for Brock Lewthwaite.

Tip: (6) Yes Man E/W $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

203902

Race 2

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m)
4:09pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m)
4:09pm (AEDT)

1. Count Grundy (10) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: R W Price
77776.57
2. Market Stryke (3) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Simon Miller
221.91.91.862
3. It's Just A Gift (9) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Ryan Hill
4. Phelamanga (1) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: W J Bradshaw
9110110110189101
5. The Panzer (11) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley
353434343034
6. Petite La Femme (12) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: C G Willis
262626262226
7. Ishinca View (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Ms A King
353134343234
8. Mia Nobile (6) J: Taj Dyson (56kg) T: G N Davies
1616161714.616
9. Chad's Me Dad (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56kg) T: Ms P Kenney
10. Hart Trader (7) J: Peter Knuckey (54.5kg) T: F R Kersley
2.72.82.82.92.952.8
11. Devil Girl (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
2326212626.523
12. Elite Jewel (5) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
617171715571
13. It's Just A Gift (9) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Ryan Hill
14. Chad's Me Dad (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56kg) T: Ms P Kenney

(2) Market Stryke looks hard to go past here. Has been knocking on the door in his first three career starts and finds a nice race today.

(10) Hart Trader looks the only danger in the race. Ran well without much luck first up and ran home strongly for 2nd last time out. Market Stryke will have a big head start which could be the telling factor.

(1) Count Grundy was fair first up and will continue to improve up in dsitance.

Tip: (2) Market Stryke $2.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Market Stryke

203902

Race 3

Amelia Park Mdn (1400m)
4:44pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Amelia Park Mdn (1400m)
4:44pm (AEDT)

1. Keep It Hush (11) J: Taj Dyson (58kg) T: Daniel O'connor
616761615371
2. Roch Legacy (13) J: William Pike (58kg) T: D & B Pearce
99.510108.410
3. Darn Noble (2) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: Ms S L Miller
1818171919.217
4. Unitool (9) J: Ms Angela Johnston (58kg) T: Kirryn Scallan
251301201201201251
5. Westriver Miracle (6) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Ms A King
2.52.62.52.52.652.6
6. War Plan (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Theres Andersson
151151101101121151
7. Almaher Man (10) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley
2.932.92.92.753
8. I Can See Clara (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: T M Andrews
1616151713.415
9. City Of Sin (1) J: Troy Turner (56.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
1819192118.419
10. Vital Times (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Fenella Martin
1414141513.814
11. Rubilicious Rose (12) J: Andrew Castle (56kg) T: Brian Rogers
718171718181
12. Dark Gossip (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Ricky Moss
919181916581
13. Rommel's War (8) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
14. Rommel's War (8) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham

(5) Westriver Miracle was the run of the day first up, flashing home from nearly last, which was against the pattern of the day. Then last start was completely and utterly slaughtered, held up the entire straight after leading early. Back to a maiden today, gets the senior jockey on and with any luck looks awfully hard to beat. The premium Discord group locked in $3.50 yesterday and it’s now into $2.30 best price.

Only danger in my opinion is the co-favourite (7) Almaher Man who was plunged in betting last start and ran 2nd to a smart one in Kolchino. Goes forward and is the one Westriver Miracle has to run down. Be very surprised if one of these two didn’t win the race. Backing Westriver Miracle and saving on Almaher Man.

Tip: (5) Westriver Miracle $2.30 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Westriver Miracle

203902

Race 4

The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1000m)
5:19pm (AEDT)

Race 4

The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1000m)
5:19pm (AEDT)

1. Storm Commander (6) J: Chris Parnham (60.5kg) T: N D Parnham
9.51010118.710
2. He's On Fire (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: S & J Casey
3. Bitofmerit (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59.5kg) T: Michael Campbell
21.9521.91.822.15
4. Crypto Queen (1) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: Brian Kersley
5.55.555.55.75
5. Nobel Knight (10) J: Shaun O'donnell (59.5kg) T: M J Duffy
353434343634
6. Paeroa Lad (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: M W Bairstow
2121212121.521
7. Eliminate (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
2326262623.526
8. Looksnoteverything (11) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (58kg) T: Ms C Godden
818171818371
9. Saasmit (7) J: Ms Holly Watson (57.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
2326212625.523
10. Story Book (5) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: T M Andrews
4.44.24.24.24.154.2
11. Extorio (3) J: Taj Dyson (54.5kg) T: M Santich
353431343431
12. He's On Fire (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: S & J Casey

(3) Bitofmerit looks a great bet. Backed up his very good trials last prep with a dominant debut victory over Buzzoom, who then went on to win in Stakes grade this prep. Only query is carrying 59.5kg first up with no public trial but think he’s a good horse and can take care of this field. We took the opening price yesterday of $2.70 and he’s been heavily backed into even money.

Tip: (3) Bitofmerit $2.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Bitofmerit

203902

Race 5

Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (2000m)
5:54pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (2000m)
5:54pm (AEDT)

1. Pale Rider (11) J: Mitchell Pateman (60.5kg) T: E A Martinovich
2.52.82.932.652.9
2. Savvy Dan (12) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: D L Morton
3. Arnray (6) J: Jason Whiting (59kg) T: Kirryn Scallan
343131343531
4. Mong Khon (16) J: Ms Victoria Corver (59kg) T: J N Pateman
212019191621
5. Red Hot Hope (15) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham
8.58.58.58.59.19
6. Calling Card (1) J: Ms Kate Witten (58kg) T: K R Mahoney
101126101101131126
7. Dancing Jack (13) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: Anthony Oram
1413121210.613
8. Circle The Sun (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: A G Durrant
5.55.555.54.85
9. Lady Of Babylon (5) J: Brad Parnham (57.5kg) T: V A Brockman
6.565.566.85.5
10. Frequent Friar (7) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
1414141411.814
11. Paigey's Turn (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
12. Fairdelicious (10) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: B M Smithall
414141414141
13. Fuel The Friar (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: D R Harrison
353434412634
14. Bryce Road (2) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (55kg) T: K J Reeves
15. Bandalera Miss (3) J: William Pike (54kg) T: F R Kersley
16. Royal Choisir (14) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Vaughn Sigley
17. Paigey's Turn (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller

(1) Pale Rider carries top weight from the wide gate today but drops heavily in class today. He ran 3rd behind It’sarayday in the Fairetha Stakes two starts ago and then failed in the WA Guineas last time out. Now drops back to a Class 1 and steps up to 2000m for the first time. Class should take him a long way.

(9) Lady of Babylon broke the maiden last start and I think is capable of making the step up to this company. Draws well and goes close today I think.

(4) Mong Khon will go forward and is always around the mark in these sorts of races. He just tends to find one or two too good.

(5) Red Hot Hope was good last start from the back of the field but does draw wide again and will have plenty to do.

(2) Arnray hit the line well last start and should enjoy a good run again. Was awful two starts ago but either side of that he’s run well. Racing out of his grade though.

Tip: (1) Pale Rider $3.30 TAB

Value: (9) Lady of Babylon $6.60 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

203902

Race 6

Morley Growers Market Hcp (C3) (1650m)
6:35pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Morley Growers Market Hcp (C3) (1650m)
6:35pm (AEDT)

1. Great Waters (5) J: Mitchell Pateman (60kg) T: Martin Allan
6.56.5666.66.5
2. Sentimental Friend (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (59.5kg) T: Ms K Pisconeri
66665.16
3. He's A Lucky Lad (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
4. Cable Guy (4) J: Andrew Castle (57.5kg) T: M Knox
1111111211.411
5. Wakan Tanka (11) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
1616151613.215
6. Holyoake (2) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: Brett Pope
1313131311.213
7. Playing Up (10) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: Fenella Martin
2019191920.519
8. Champagne Gal (1) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
2121212117.821
9. Missalfie (7) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: W J Bradshaw
353434343634
10. Richardson (8) J: Ms Fiona Bell (54kg) T: G L Carige
91101818169101
11. Sporty Spice (9) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54kg) T: Matthew Scott
126151101101131151
12. He's A Lucky Lad (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant

(3) He’s A Lucky Lad won two on the bounce before a midfield finish in the G2 WA Guineas last start. Drops back to a Class 3 today and should be winning this with any luck.

(2) Sentimental Friend improved last start and goes well third up so can improve again but doubt it can beat the favourite.

Tip: (3) He's A Lucky Lad $1.80 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

203902

Race 7

Western Racepix Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:10pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Western Racepix Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:10pm (AEDT)

1. Cross Statement (10) J: Ms Holly Watson (60.5kg) T: J P Taylor
22.0521.952.052.1
2. Johnny Angel (4) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: Michael Grantham
3. Lil' Red Bikini (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: P W Mcleod
4. Oceanzara (2) J: Taj Dyson (57.5kg) T: Kirsten Melis
1414131515.213
5. The Anvil (3) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: G A Crispin
1616161614.816
6. Miss Quoted (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (57kg) T: G M Ayres
1716151613.815
7. Saturn Black (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: Deborah Murphy
5.55.55.564.955.5
8. Tibetan Black (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: Ms S L Miller
313434343234
9. Western Rhythm (7) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
5555.55.15
10. Alexis Olympia (11) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (54kg) T: Michael Hackett
2321212023.523
11. Sea Waif (1) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Brett Pope
1616161612.816
12. Lil' Red Bikini (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: P W Mcleod

(1) Cross Statement is racing in good form and clung on for a deserved win last start after two 2nds to open the campaign. Goes forward and takes catching again in a weak field.

(9) Western Rhythm gets Pike on first up with no trial for Brock Lewthwaite. This horse showed plenty of talent early but failed to go on with it. Can run a big race fresh today if he has it right.

(7) Saturn Black was fair first up and (10) Alexis Olympia has been good in recent starts.

Tip: (9) Western Rhythm $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Western Rhythm

203902

Race 8

Quayclean Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Quayclean Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:40pm (AEDT)

1. War Warrior (10) J: Brad Rawiller (61kg) T: D L Morton
3.13.23.23.22.853.2
2. Blow Me Out (9) J: Taj Dyson (59kg) T: Brett Pope
6666.56.66
3. Weona Brute (2) J: Austin Galati (59kg) T: Steele Casey
1514131315.215
4. Red Inferno (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: G M Ayres
6.565.55.55.55.5
5. Cheval De Vaga (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (57kg) T: Meryl Hayley
1717161818.216
6. Gold Merits (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (56.5kg) T: J P Taylor
2726262620.526
7. Looks Like Magic (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: B H Hyde
211917172119
8. Reaction (6) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: D J Waldock
1717171717.217
9. Reciting (11) J: Troy Turner (55.5kg) T: C H Webster
181818202018
10. My Marlaina (5) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
3.63.83.83.83.43.8
11. Amber Mamba (1) J: Ms Lisa Staples (54kg) T: Bill Spencer
616761676361

(1) War Warrior carries the full 61kg today from a wide gate but it might not stop him winning. He’s nominated to go around on the weekend as well so if he wins this we may well see him in Saturday company in a matter of days.

(10) My Marlaina looks the danger with Pike taking over. Will go forward and be the horse War Warrior has to chase down.

(2) Red Inferno is racing in good form but steps up to 1200m and has failed in two attempts in the past at this trip.

Tip: (1) War Warrior $3.40 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN War Warrior

203902

Race 9

Salinger (Rs0ly) (1000m)
8:10pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Salinger (Rs0ly) (1000m)
8:10pm (AEDT)

1. My Demi (5) J: Ms Kate Southam (61kg) T: Michael Hackett
1919192020.519
2. Wiener Waltz (11) J: Ms Rosie Mahony (60kg) T: Steele Casey
1616171717.217
3. Eeyore Wayz (12) J: Craig Staples (59.5kg) T: Raquel Reid
5.5666.56.46
4. Human Nature (13) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: Sean Rains
1212121313.212
5. Go Forward (7) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
2.22.22.152.122.25
6. Requisition (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: Brett Pope
776.56.57.17
7. Agent Kensington (4) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: L P Luciani
98.58978
8. Blankenberge (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (56kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
1413121312.412
9. Gessato (2) J: Peter Knuckey (54.5kg) T: S & J Casey
3126262625.526
10. Stable Secret (3) J: Ms Sasha Starley (54.5kg) T: B P Graham
353434343634
11. Boyish (9) J: Ms Angela Johnston (54kg) T: Ms K Farrell
10110110110191101
12. Dam Ready (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: M W Bairstow
263434342441
13. Wednesday (6) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: C R Green

(5) Go Forward was super two starts ago when bolting in by 3.5L. Last start he just got way too far back but ran home in by far the fastest final 400m of the meeting. Happy to go again today from the better draw.

I don’t think there’s anything in the race that can beat him and once again, the Premium Discord group took a good price yesterday locking in $2.60.

Tip: (5) Go Forward $2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Go Forward

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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