Racing Tips

Geelong Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 1st

Racing heads to Geelong on Wednesday in warm conditions and Trent Crebbin has analysed every race.

by
Trent Crebbin
30 November 2021

Racing heads to Geelong on Wednesday for an eight race card as we start to move into the Summer.

Trent Crebbin has done the form for every race and is keen to back a few at odds later in the program.

The track is rated a good 4 but could be very firm, and the rail is true.

Best Bet- Race 6 (9) Love Takes Time & (4) Jolting

Best Value- Race 7 (4) Upper East Side

Race 1

Bet365 Odds Drift Protect-Bm64 (2200m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Bet365 Odds Drift Protect-Bm64 (2200m) 3:05pm (AEDT)
1. Pilote (6) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: K L Corstens	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6
2. Banstead (4) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	13	12	13	12	10	12
3. Inthelapofthegods (2) J: Thomas Stockdale (58.5kg) T: Nathan Dunn	6.5	6.5	6.5	7.5	7.6	6.5
4. Milestone (3) J: Daniel Moor (58.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	5	5	5	6	4.85	5
5. Nothin' Leica High (1) J: Brian Higgins (58.5kg) T: Rachael Cunningham	14	14	14	14	14.2	14
6. Lady Devereaux (5) J: Lachlan Neindorf (54.5kg) T: C W Mcdonald	19	19	19	21	19.4	19
7. Nothin' Leica High (1) J: Brian Higgins (58.5kg) T: Rachael Cunningham

$1.50 favourite over 2200m in the first. I speak of (1) Pilote who should be winning after a dominant win in bm58 grade two back before just being nabbed on the line last start in a harder race. Should be winning, but no need to get involved.

(4) Milestone looks the one most likely of causing an upset. He improved lengths last start and his best form (which he hasn’t captured for a while) would win this race. Whether he can get back to that form remains to be seen.

Tip: (4) Milestone- $5.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 2

All Time Plumbing Mdn Plate (1100m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

Race 2 All Time Plumbing Mdn Plate (1100m) 3:40pm (AEDT)
1. Aero Stars (4) J: Jarrod Fry (59.5kg) T: Ms S Ferchie
2. God Of Light (10) J: Rhys Mcleod (59.5kg) T: D E Coombes	71	81	71	71	79	81
3. Talk About Tom (3) J: Ms Maddi Price (59.5kg) T: D J Connors	51	51	51	51	63	61
4. Toronasaurus Rex (1) J: Ms Jade Darose (59.5kg) T: M A Bell	14	13	13	13	14.2	13
5. Brinell (5) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: M M Laurie	4	4	3.9	4	3.8	3.9
6. Foxhow (6) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: C W Mcdonald	15	16	16	16	16.2	17
7. Hogan (11) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: Shea Eden
8. Oughton (9) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.6	4	4.4
9. Shootthelightsout (8) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: G Eurell	13	13	13	13	12.6	14
10. Lady Pangle (7) J: Matthew Cartwright (56kg) T: Jerome Hunter	9.5	9	9	9	8	9
11. Swerving (2) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: L & T Corstens	2.35	2.35	2.3	2.25	2.4	2.4

Another tough race with most of the field on debut. (5) Brinell looks quite professional and gets Lane on debut for a stable that typically have them ready to go first up. Draws well and looks hard to beat.

(11) Swerving is a well bred filly by Extreme Choice out of a talented American mare and has jumped out well at Flemington. She draws very soft and gets Olly on.

(8) Oughton next best for the Hawkes team.

Tip: (5) Brinell- $3.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 3

Dmb Contracting Mdn (1200m)
4:15pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Dmb Contracting Mdn (1200m) 4:15pm (AEDT)
1. Brazen Delight (6) J: Lachlan Neindorf (57kg) T: C W Mcdonald	81	91	91	91	85	101
2. Cavellita (11) J: Jarrod Fry (57kg) T: J F Moloney	67	81	81	71	71	81
3. Destiny Diamond (5) J: Joe Bowditch (57kg) T: Symon Wilde	8.5	8	8	8	8.1	8
4. Jen's Reward (8) J: Craig Newitt (57kg) T: E V Musgrove	81	81	81	81	69	81
5. Live In Hope (10) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: G M Begg	12	13	14	14	12	14
6. Mayatrix (9) J: Ms Melissa Julius (57kg) T: C R Chandler	46	51	61	51	53	51
7. Order Of Glory (2) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: D T O'brien
8. Snow Business (4) J: John Allen (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	4.5	4.2	4	4.65	4.6
9. Sugar Pop (7) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: Caroline Jennings	1.7	1.7	1.55	1.5	1.56	1.75
10. Tarz Le Rose (3) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: Henry Dwyer	10	11	11	13	9.6	11
11. Trust In A Gale (1) J: Dean Yendall (57kg) T: Andrew Bobbin	9	9	9	9.5	9.2	9
12. Jen's Reward (8) J: Craig Newitt (57kg) T: E V Musgrove

Looks a fairly simple race in two. (9) Sugar Pop started $5.50 on debut and came widest on the turn at Mornington, just missing in a three way go. Her last 400/200m were the fastest of the race and getting to Geelong should help with Prebble taking the ride.

(7) Order Of Glory got the split through in the same race, hit the front and was just run down late. She started $4 there and has since run well without luck in a strong maiden. Lane takes the ride and with luck from barrier 2 she’ll be hard to beat.

Slight lean to Sugar Pop given she had a tougher run on debut and should improve more.

Tip: (9) Sugar Pop- $2.70 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sugar Pop

Race 4

Geelong Homes Mdn Plate (1300m)
4:50pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Geelong Homes Mdn Plate (1300m) 4:50pm (AEDT)
1. By Jiminy (2) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: A W Noonan	46	41	41	41	45	41
2. Listen To Me Jack (11) J: Lewis German (59.5kg) T: Ms D Clover	21	16	21	21	23.5	23
3. Vision Of Glory (4) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Len Ablett
4. Can't Go Wong (10) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2
5. Galathilion (3) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: Shea Eden	9	9	9	9	9.1	9.5
6. Honest Legend (5) J: Unknown (58kg) T: J D Sadler	4.2	4.2	4	4	4.25	4
7. Jet De Lune (7) J: Lachlan Neindorf (58kg) T: M M Laurie	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.55	4.8
8. Master Of Menace (13) J: Joe Bowditch (58kg) T: Ms W Kelly
9. My Dog Diesel (14) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: Nathan Dunn
10. Mystic Realm (18) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
11. Victory Bay (15) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P G Moody
12. Adaleene (12) J: Jye Mcneil (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	6	6	6	6	5.7	6
13. Lunares (1) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	6.5	6	5.5	5.5	5	6.5
14. Erskine Falls (8) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: C W Mcdonald	26	26	26	26	24.5	31
15. Countenanski (17) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: Simon Lee
16. Our Joe (9) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: Greg Hayes	71	81	71	71	83	81
17. Tavirajay (16) J: Jarrod Fry (57.5kg) T: Ms S Ferchie	101	101	101	101	69	101
18. Assemblywomen (6) J: Unknown (57.5kg) T: Chris Calthorpe	126	151	101	101	141	151
19. Can't Go Wong (10) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace

(6) Honest Legend can improve lengths at his 2nd start. He was solid over 1100m on debut in a fairly strong maiden and should appreciate getting to 1300m here. He also gets blinkers on and draws ideally. No jockey booked yet but I assume Dee will be riding for the Sadler camp.

(4) Can’t Go Wong has jumped out well for his debut, looking to show plenty of natural speed. He draws wide but will look to come across.

(7) Jet De Lune might end up wanting further than 1300m but he’s jumped out well.

Tip: (6) Honest Legend- $7.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Honest Legend

Race 5

Roderick Insurance Brokers Mdn (1700m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Roderick Insurance Brokers Mdn (1700m) 5:25pm (AEDT)
1. A Waler (16) J: Brian Higgins (59.5kg) T: J W Bridgman
2. King Lenny (6) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: G Eurell	4	3.9	3.7	3.5	3.75	4
3. Orpierre (10) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: Carly Cook	61	61	41	41	63	51
4. Rasmussen (4) J: Billy Egan (59.5kg) T: A H Parker	21	21	20	20	21.5	21
5. Set To Spin (2) J: Declan Bates (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	23	21	20	21	21.5	23
6. Ashy Boy (1) J: Teodore Nugent (58kg) T: P Kearney	16	19	20	20	21	21
7. Calmsir (7) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: Shea Eden	4.4	4.2	3.8	3.9	4.4	4.2
8. Juvino (11) J: Dean Yendall (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	6	6	5.5	5.5	5.1	6
9. Our Nay Warrior (13) J: Matthew Cartwright (58kg) T: Jerome Hunter	61	61	61	61	43	61
10. Princess Tina (12) J: Ms Alana Kelly (57.5kg) T: P Koumis	4.8	5	5.5	5	5.1	5
11. Vosmaeri (5) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	8	8.5	8.5	8.5	7.3	8.5
12. Flying Feedy (8) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani	13	14	14	14	11.6	15
13. Regal Valour (15) J: Fred Kersley (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani
14. Two To Tango (3) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: G M Begg	81	81	81	81	61	81
15. Louise Frances (9) J: Dean Holland (57.5kg) T: Daniel Kelly	71	91	81	81	61	101
16. Halic (14) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: E V Musgrove	126	126	101	101	81	126

Keen to back (7) Calmsir here 3rd up getting out in trip. He’s looked in need of more ground at both runs, the latest behind General Firepower and Riverina Cyclone. The former has since run fairly well in the Sandown Guineas and the latter was good in a maiden thrashing 3rd at The Valley on Friday. Up to 1700m looks ideal and at $7 he looks a nice bet.

(11) Vosmaeri started $3.10 in a fairly weak maiden at Ararat last start but will go forward and should be fitter for this.

(2) King Lenny ties in with Calmsir through Invincible Crown. King Lenny was very good first up and strong through the line. He should improve here and looks hard to beat.

Tip: (7) Calmsir- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) King Lenny- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Calmsir, 0.5 units WIN King Lenny

Race 6

Times News Group (Bm64) (1700m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Times News Group (Bm64) (1700m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Zancada (1) J: Fred Kersley (60.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	8	8	7.5	7.5	8.6	8.5
2. Storm's Colours (3) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: Anthony Chibnall	6	6	6	6	5.7	6
3. Real Thinker (4) J: Jason Maskiell (59kg) T: E V Musgrove	41	41	34	31	43	41
4. Jolting (6) J: Declan Bates (58.5kg) T: P A Preusker	7.5	7	7	7	6.4	7
5. Nama Dude (8) J: Ms Alana Kelly (58.5kg) T: Daniel Kelly	51	61	51	51	55	61
6. Heroic Fighter (7) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi	20	21	21	21	21.5	21
7. Eidolon (9) J: Daniel Moor (57.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	9	9	8.5	8.5	7.6	9
8. Misterzee (2) J: Jordan Childs (57.5kg) T: C W Mcdonald	26	26	26	26	26.5	26
9. Love Takes Time (10) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: A & S Freedman	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.4	2.6
10. Meltdown (5) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: P Stokes	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.45	4.4
11. Storm's Colours (3) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: Anthony Chibnall

Keen enough to be against (10) Meltdown as favourite. He’s ready to win but will get back in the field and potentially wants a softer track.

(9) Love Takes Time was outsprinted at 1400m last start after drifting heavily in the market late. By Galileo she’s going to appreciate the 1700m and still has plenty of upside.

(4) Jolting also looked in need of more ground last start at 1400m. By Shocking, he’s another that will relish the 1700m and keen to be with him at the prices.

Tip: (9) Love Takes Time- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Jolting- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Love Takes Time, 0.75 units WIN Jolting

Race 7

Steigen (Bm64) (1100m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Steigen (Bm64) (1100m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Iknewshewasmine (12) J: Ms Tianni Chapman (61kg) T: Jerome Hunter	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
2. Galactus (8) J: Damien Thornton (60.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	6.5	6.5	6.5	7	6.5	6.5
3. Rising Sphere (3) J: Zac Spain (60kg) T: P Stokes	5	5	5	5	4.7	5
4. Upper East Side (9) J: Jye Mcneil (60kg) T: Nathan Hobson	6	6	5.5	5.5	5.5	6
5. Haystacks Calhoun (6) J: Patrick Moloney (59.5kg) T: Ms D Chapman	8.5	8	7	8	7.8	8
6. Zooming Zebra (5) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59kg) T: Russell Osborne
7. Abrazen Laugh (2) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	5.6	6.5
8. Sayumi (7) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: M M Laurie	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.85	3.9
9. Aerospeed (11) J: Jarrod Fry (56.5kg) T: Ms S Ferchie
10. Bailarin (4) J: Beau Mertens (56.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
11. Moon Over Alice (10) J: Harry Coffey (55.5kg) T: Daniel Bowman
12. Forever Loud (1) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Ms D Clover	46	51	61	51	53	51

(4) Upper East Side has been good without winning lately. He was okay down the straight two back in a much stronger race behind It’sourtime, but the run prior over 1100m behind Duchess Of Dorset was good and reads well. Draws wide here but he’s a decent price in a winnable race.

(8) Sayumi has the talent and generally goes well fresh. He was a big winner to break his maiden at The Valley first up last prep.

(6) Zooming Zebra was good from the back last start and is going very well. Some query she’s never won on a good surface but the run on a good 3 at Bendigo a few runs back was very good in a tougher race.

(3) Rising Sphere next best.

Tip: (4) Upper East Side- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) Zooming Zebra- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Upper East Side, 0.5 units WIN Zooming Zebra

Race 8

Elephant And Castle Hotel-Bm64 (1300m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Elephant And Castle Hotel-Bm64 (1300m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Via Capo (9) J: Jordan Childs (60.5kg) T: G M Begg
2. Revlis (12) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: P A Preusker	15	16	16	17	16.6	16
3. Starden Lass (7) J: John Allen (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	7.5	7.5	7	7	7.6	7.5
4. Frankly Harvey (17) J: Zac Spain (59kg) T: Robert Hickmott
5. Gentleman Roy (14) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes	6.5	6	5	6	5.3	6
6. Magnus Bellagio (16) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	9	9	9	9	8.5	8.5
7. Villa Sarchi (1) J: Craig Newitt (59kg) T: G A Osborne
8. Igniter (8) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	46	41	51	41	32	41
9. Nostradam Man (15) J: Kyle Hocking (58.5kg) T: G R Webb	34	34	41	34	35	34
10. Divine Caprice (13) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes	17	16	14	16	14.4	15
11. Golden Fourth (11) J: Lachlan Neindorf (58kg) T: M M Laurie	8	8	7.5	8.5	7.5	8
12. Rebellious Belle (5) J: Rhys Mcleod (57kg) T: Caroline Jennings	11	11	10	10	11.2	11
13. Francie Girl (6) J: Dean Yendall (55.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	11	10	9.5	9	9.9	11
14. Hauteur (4) J: Declan Bates (55.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	3.8	4	4.4	4	4.05	4
15. Hopkins (10) J: Craig Newitt (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	26	26	26	26	23	31
16. Sly Corner (3) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	14	15	14	15	12.4	15
17. Yulong Crown (2) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Ms S Ferchie	101	126	101	101	121	151

(14) Hauteur was far too good at Hamilton first up. There have been plenty of winners from that race, and her form around some smart fillies last prep should hold her in good stead for this.

(5) Gentleman Roy has upside. He was 5L off Ayrton on debut and good in some strong races after that. 1300m might be a bit sharp and he’s drawn wide, but he’s jumped out well and can run well.

(3) Starden Lass drops in grade after a solid run at Pakenham last start. She has to carry 60kg here but should run well.

Tip: (14) Hauteur- $4.20 at TopSport

Value: (5) Gentleman Roy- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hauteur, 0.25 units WIN Gentleman Roy

Trent Crebbin

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.