Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 28th

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

No need to get involved in a 2100m maiden on a wet deck with a $1.50 favourite in (2) Freedomofthepress. Happy to stay out, anything could happen.

Tip: (2) Freedomofthepress $1.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Really only two horses of interest here and I’d be surprised if one of them wasn’t the winner.

(9) Treasured Star is sure to be popular on debut for Peters/Pike/Williams, having won both trials leading into today. The horse she beat in her most recent trial went down by a nose last start so everything points to her going very close.

(5) Wommel Wock also comes into this off a good recent trial and the David Harrison stable is absolutely flying at the moment. This horse ran about about a whole second quicker on the same day as Treasured Star at the trials and he ran in a very strong race at his only start last prep.

Tip: (5) Wommel Wock $5.50 Bet365

Saver: (9) Treasured Crown $1.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Wommel Wock, 1 unit WIN Treasured Crown

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

(9) Trix Of The Trade has won three of his four trials leading into his debut today. He had two trials back in March before returning with two more this month. Looks to have handled the wet ground in those so expect him to be hard to beat here.

(12) Real Danger will run well but I think she’s worth taking on. Had her chance in both trials and wasn’t exactly an eye-catcher so happy to oppose from the wide gate especially.

(2) Tunk ran in the same trial as Real Danger and ran last, but I thought it was actually one of the better runs in the trial. Hasn’t done much on race day though but could be a blowout chance at $31.

(8) Rocking The Merc a chance.

Tip: (9) Trix Of The Trade $3.60 Ladbrokes

Value: (2) Tunk $31 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Trix Of The Trade, 0.25 units WIN Tunk

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

(10) Yangtze Rapids won on WA debut for Tiarnna Robertson at Northam and should only improve stepping out to the mile today. The query for mine is that form from the Northam race is very ordinary and this is a much stronger field.

(3) Sunsphere looks a good bet at the price. Won two starts back at Kalgoorlie and then worked home strongly last start behind Ginger Baker, who came out and ran well again on the weekend.

(7) Ghobella has run out of chances with me but if Sunsphere is a chance, then so is Ghobella. Gets a good draw today for a suck run and flogged the rest of the field last week behind the very smart winner Buster Bash.

Backing Ghobella and Sunsphere.

Tip: (3) Sunsphere $5.50 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Ghobella $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sunsphere, 1 unit WIN Ghobella

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(5) She’s A Sweet Deal put in a very good debut run in defeat and followed that up with a solid victory last start. Steps up to Class 1 company today so needs to improve again but I think she can and should go very close again.

(4) Trade War was enormous winning on debut but has failed in two subsequent starts. Drops heavily in grade today though, froma 3YO handicap behind Secret Plan back to a Class 1 at the midweeks. Chris Parnham takes over and if the horse produces its best, can go very close.

Pike goes on the Simon Miller-trained (6) Star Storm from the inside gate, taking over from apprentice Holly Watson. Should be hard to beat but I’ll be against at the prices.

(2) Lincoln’s Law next best.

Tip: (5) She's A Sweet Deal $3.10 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (4) Trade War $7.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN She's A Sweet Deal, 0.5 units WIN Trade War

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

(7) Wilchino was a big drifter first up at Pinjarra and ran accordingly, dropping out to finish last. She pulled up with a slow recovery from that and has been back to the trials. Notably, she has been absolutely smashed in betting today, and the betting closer to the race could tell the story. If she remains firm or keeps being supported, she should be winning.

(9) Crypto Queen had the race all but won last start before being run down in the final stride. She’ll be the one Wilchino has to beat.

(8) Micky Blue Eyes comes into this first up off a trial win and can be competitive.

Tip: (7) Wilchino $2.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Wilchino

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 6:31pm (AEDT)

(3) Approach ran OK in defeat first up in a strong Saturday race. That was a day where it was impossible to make ground out wide in the straight, which is where he ended up after being on the rail during the run. The form out of the race has stood up and from the good gate today, he should be able to get his chance.

(4) Keep Your Feet blew out the cobwebs first up at Northam and probably just peaked on the run. Should improve.

(5) Angelique’s Fame was a good run first up but the draw makes things tricky today.

(8) Heels A Plenty is ready to win.

Tip: (3) Approach $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Approach

Odds Last Updated: July 28, 2021, 7:06pm (AEDT)

Another 2100m race to end the card, which is fraught with danger, but (2) Aragain looks awfully short despite being the horse to beat.

(5) Lollipop Lane was heavily backed first up but might not have been ready for the distance first up. Following my money today with $6 on offer.

(3) Choose Freedom leaves itself with plenty to do every start as he gets so far back, but his run against the pattern of the day last start was actually quite good. Bit of value dropping in grade today.

(1) Alkaline next best.

Tip: (5) Lollipop Lane $6.00 TAB

Value: (3) Choose Freedom $13 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Lollipop Lane, 0.5 units WIN Choose Freedom