Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 23rd

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

The first of two two-year-old races to kick off the card, and I won’t be playing big here.

(5) Night’s Mystery trialled exceptionally well over 400m last Monday and comes straight to the races. He looked very good and ran good time, so he’s clearly got some talent, but I don’t necessarily like seeing them debut off one 400m trial.

I think the one at good odds to be with is (4) Isola Bay for Adam Durrant and Chris Parnham. Durrant has two runners in this race and Parnham trialled both of them, and chooses to stick with this one. He also jumps off the favourite Vranyo to ride this horse.

The other one is (7) Galaxy Cat who ran in some good races in its debut prep and resumed in a strong race on a Saturday. Back to Wednesday grade today, should improve and hopefully goes forward from the gate.

(8) Vranyo looks well and truly short enough to me at $2.50. Led last start from a low draw and was turned over at even money. Granted, the horse that finished 2^nd ahead of her then came out and won on Saturday, so the form looks sound, but she gets barrier 9 today and Parnham jumps off.

(2) Rommel’s Jeuney had a complete meltdown on debut so if he behaves himself better before the race, he can improve sharply.

Tip: (4) Isola Bay $14 TopSport

Also Backing: (7) Galaxy Cat $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Isola Bay, 0.25 units WIN Galaxy Cat

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

Surely, SURELY today is the day for (7) Astrape, though I’ve been saying that for a while now. She’s had absolutely no luck at all in recent starts and has been running some very admirable races. She finally comes up with a draw that should just allow Chris Parnham to settle her wherever she’s comfortable, rather than getting too far back or caught wide. Unfortunately, we’re not getting any sort of price about her today as the main danger failed to gain a run. If she drifts out to around even money on Betfair though, could be a late play.

Tip: (7) Astrape $1.65 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

You’d be a brave man taking $1.45 for (2) Celebrity Man but he really should be winning a race like this. He’s gone down at $1.95, $1.95 and $1.35 so there’s no sane human who would be launching at his price today.

Tip: (2) Celebrity Man $1.45 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Will be keeping this one pretty simple.

(4) Stylax returned with a terrific run at Pinjarra, coming from last to record the fastest final 400m and 200m of the entire meeting. He was beaten 4L but it was a big run to get that close. Blinkers go on for the first time today, draws low so should sit closer and will be very hard to beat.

(3) Comanche Chant debuted in a strong 3YO No-Metro-Wins race, which isn’t an easy starting point. He ran last there but his trials leading into that race were good and he gets Pike on today dropping back to a maiden.

(7) Takemehometonight was sound first up at Pinjarra and did beat home Comanche Chant in a trial before that. Has to be respected from the good draw.

Backing Stylax, saving Comanche Chant.

Tip: (4) Stylax $2.80 Unibet

Saver: (3) Comanche Chant $5.00 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Stylax, 0.5 units WIN Comanche Chant

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Open race this. (4) Real Charisma brings strong form upon her return to the races today. She ran into Hot Zed on debut, which is a very good form reference, then ran the fastest 400m in defeat second up before bolting in at Ascot third up. Returns on the back of a decent trial, draws well and should be hard to beat.

(5) Saturn Black was very heavily backed last start but the run was a bit hard to assess. Looked under a lot of pressure early in the straight and looked beaten, before picking up late and running onto heels. Prior to that was good first up after sitting wide. Senior jockey on today with a good draw, can go close.

(7) Arracity has ability but her last run was disappointing.

(6) Western Rhythm also has ability but there’s two versions of her. Has been well backed this morning which is a positive sign and has run 2^nd in both starts when first up.

(8) Blonde Warrior makes its stable debut for Dan Morton and Chris Parnham goes straight on, so he’s also not hopeless at big odds.

Tip: (4) Real Charisma $2.15 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Not often I tip Fred Kersley runners, let alone two in one day, but (5) Sketta does look a good chance here. She ran the fastest final 400m of the meeting on debut back in December before going for a spell. She resumed with a sound win at Pinjarra, where she beat the likes of Short Talk, who came out and won last week. Gets barrier 1 here and will be hard to beat again.

(4) Perfect Gem didn’t get the greatest of luck last start but I’m not sure she would have won anyway.

(1) Ghobella resumes having trialled well recently. Has a win over Son Son which reads very well. Will be right in the finish.

Tip: (5) Sketta $3.50 Bet365

Saver: (1) Ghobella $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Sketta, 0.5 units WIN Ghobella

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

This race has given me a headache.

(4) Sentimental Hero won on debut like he was the next Arcadia Queen, and then failed to go on with it in his next three starts. He resumes from a spell today with two trials under the belt – the first one has no vision available and the second one was pretty good. I thought he picked up well when Pike gave him one on the backside. Big question mark today is putting the 3kg claimer on in a race where every horse carries between 59-61.5kg. It makes him get in with the lightest weight in the field and if he reproduced what he did on debut, he’d be winning. The market support is there to suggest he will too, as he’s been $6 into $3 since markets opened.

Outside of him, I could make a good case for a few others. (2) Beau Zoom has had more chances than he deserves but he drops back to a midweek Class 1 now with Laqdar Ramoly booked. He ran 3^rd in a similar race five starts back.

(3) Comealilbitcloser was sound first up and should improve. He doesn’t win out of turn but Pike sticks and if he can overcome the wide draw, he’ll be in the finish.

(10) Rock Hard Omaru sat three-wide the trip at his first start for the new stable and wasn’t beaten far. Can run well today from a good draw.

Will play equal stakes on Comealilbitcloser, Beau Zoom and Sentimental Hero to cover bases.

Tip: (3) Comealilbitcloser $9.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (2) Beau Zoom $9.50 Ladbrokes

Saver: (4) Sentimental Hero $3.00 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Comealilbitcloser, 0.5 units WIN Beau Zoom, 0.5 units WIN Sentimental Hero

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 5:36pm (AEDT)

(4) Aragain drops back to a very suitable race today. She’s raced in harder races than this her past two starts and she didn’t have much luck in her first two starts of the prep. Has had the run over this distance last start, back in class, should go forward from the gate and be hard to run down.

(6) Baranova has won her past two which have been over similar distances and comes up with the inside draw.

(1) Al Mahalo steps up in distance now after consecutive placings and gets conditions to suit.

On best form, (8) Pearls From Heaven would give this a real shake but she’s been dreadful her past two starts.

Tip: (4) Aragain $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

Happy to oppose (1) Elafella here, who won last start thanks largely to being on the fast lane on the inside.

(3) Tradem’ In should have bolted in last start but was held up horribly in the straight and got out when it was all over. Awkward draw today and they stick with the apprentice which is the query.

(6) Free Solo broke through for a deserved win last start and now he’s won one, he might be able to go on with it. Stepping up in distance should suit him.

(7) Sunsphere came from a long way off them to get up in the final stride last start. He actually beat Free Solo in that race and ran a fastest final 400m than him, but Free Solo was getting warm through the line. He was only first up there and gets up in distance now, which should also suit him.

Tip: (6) Free Solo $4.40 TAB

Value: (7) Sunsphere $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Free Solo, 0.5 units WIN Sunsphere

Odds Last Updated: June 23, 2021, 6:51pm (AEDT)

I think (2) Said No One Ever is the best bet on the card by some distance. Won three starts back, copped an awful run two starts ago, but destroyed his rivals last start when he got the best ride he’s had this prep. Chris Parnham sticks with today, gets the same barrier draw, and if he gets the same run as he did last start, there’s no reason he can’t win again.

(3) Cuban Twist is likely to come across from the wide gate to take up a position on speed. Keeps running well and looks the logical danger to the favourite.

(4) Bollinger Boy is ready to win at his third run back now. Has been good in his two starts back from a spell and the horse that beat him last start has since won again.

Tip: (2) Said No One Ever $2.45 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Said No One Ever