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Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 15th

Tim Geers previews the eight-race card at Belmont on Wednesday afternoon with his analysis and betting tips.

belmont racing tips

Midweek racing today heads to Belmont in the West for an eight-race card.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there are showers forecast in the afternoon which could cause a downgrade. The rail moves out 21m with a cutaway in the straight.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below with his analysis and racing tips.

His best bet comes up in Race X and his best value bet is in Race X.

Best Bet: Race 6 – (4) Stellar Vista

Best Value: Race 8 – (3) Beret & (8) Jaguar Grey

PlayUp

197739

Race 1

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs0ly (1300m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs0ly (1300m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

1. Outspoken Lad (6) J: William Pike (60kg) T: D & B Pearce
1.351.351.41.41.41.4
2. Black Fantasy (1) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
3. He's A Lucky Lad (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
77666.67
4. Lindram Walter (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: S & J Casey
77666.36.5
5. Glacier Miss (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: D R Harrison
8.58.57.56.59.19
6. Tahitian Red (5) J: Steven Parnham (55kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Amazingly this race had 17 nominations and has ended up with four runners in the final field.

(1) Outspoken Lad bolted in here on debut over this track and distance with the same weight. Pike sticks.

(3) He’s A Lucky Lad didn’t get much luck on debut and then had one or two little excuses at Northam last start. The small field suits but he’s unlikely to beat the favourite.

(4) Lindram Walter drops out of a 3YO Saturday race back to a midweek NMW so can improve.

(5) Glacier Miss next.

Tip: (1) Outspoken Lad $1.35 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

197739

Race 2

Mumm Champagne Mdn (1300m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Mumm Champagne Mdn (1300m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

1. Downtown Twain (5) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: S & J Casey
1010101010.410
2. Look Here Punk (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (58kg) T: Darren Taylor
5.55.5665.66
3. Sootie Boy (1) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: Jayce Buckley
91918181111101
4. Rulelee (7) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: Vaughn Sigley
4.64.54.44.84.854.4
5. Talkalicious (9) J: Paul Harvey (56kg) T: D R Harrison
1414131314.215
6. Comanche Kat (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: R W Matthews
10109.5101010
7. Commodore Gal (10) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
262626262726
8. Diamond Blue (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: E A Martinovich
332.932.852.9
9. I Can See Clara (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55.5kg) T: T M Andrews
5.55.55.55.55.55.5
10. Winning Aces (8) J: Jason Brown (55.5kg) T: J P Taylor

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Competitive race this. (2) Look Here Punk has been trialling well and the stable’s runners have been going well so expect a forward run from him on debut from the low draw.

(4) Rulelee ran 3rd behind Red Fifty Three last start and he then went to a Saturday race and won again, so the form looks strong. She has run well in all three starts, the concern is just how far back she gets because it’s been hard to make ground in recent meetings.

(5) Talkalicious trialled OK and has been nominated for a few races now but hasn’t gained a run. Paul Harvey goes straight on first up and I’d expect a good run at double figure odds.

(6) Comanche Kat needs it wet I think but should be ready to do something third up from a long spell now. Her last run was good.

Would be happy to oppose Diamond Blue and I Can See Clara at the prices.

Tip: (2) Look Here Punk $4.60 TAB

Value: (5) Talkalicious $16 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

197739

Race 3

Iron Jack Mdn (1300m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Iron Jack Mdn (1300m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Lookonchina (7) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: T N Pike
262626262626
2. Miner Addiction (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Darren Taylor
7.57.57.57.57.57.5
3. Into The Flames (11) J: Peter Knuckey (56kg) T: S J Rowe
4. Pale Rider (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: E A Martinovich
33.12.82.92.73
5. Buster's Force (10) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: D R Harrison
1718171619.219
6. Justamiddy (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
665.566.15.5
7. My Conviction (12) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant
8. Elusive Dream (9) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams
5.55566.15
9. Recalled (3) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe
443.9443.9
10. Zero Dawn (1) J: Patrick Carbery (53.5kg) T: Simon Miller
2726263426.526
11. Shyster (4) J: Andrew Castle (58kg) T: Jayce Buckley
101126101101161151
12. Mia Nobile (5) J: Unknown (56kg) T: G N Davies

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Another good race.

(2) Miner Addiction had been trialling very well before a good first up run behind Red Fifty Three, who then went on to win a Saturday race. Awkward draw here but should roll forward and run well.

(6) Justamiddy is another who had been trialling well and also ran home strongly in the same race as Miner Addiction behind Red Fifty Three. Hung in badly in the straight and gets the blinkers on for the first time here. Can go close.

(4) Pale Rider ran a very slick final 400m first up and getting to the 1300m should suit.

(8) Elusive Dream failed to handle the wet track on debut but did start favourite.

(1) Lookonchina an interesting runner on WA debut. Was in for Northam tomorrow as well but they decide to come to town which is an intriguing move.

Tip: (6) Justamiddy $5.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Miner Addiction $7.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Justamiddy, 0.5 units WIN Miner Addiction

197739

Race 4

Cool Ridge Hcp (C3) (2200m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Cool Ridge Hcp (C3) (2200m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

1. Surf Point (2) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: D L Morton
3.63.53.43.43.653.5
2. Stocktaka (3) J: William Pike (59kg) T: A W Maley
2.62.62.452.62.42.4
3. Egg White (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58.5kg) T: A G Durrant
5.55.5555.65.5
4. Blaiszen Cazah (5) J: Troy Turner (55.5kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
1111101011.211
5. Three Eze (7) J: Ryan Hill (55.5kg) T: David A Smith
1011101111.210
6. Twentythree Red (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: Rhys Radford
1313131310.613
7. Time Stands Still (4) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: Deborah Hagan
1717171717.217

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Leave me out of this 2200m race.

(2) Stocktaka is knocking on the door but not necessarily kicking it down. Pike goes on today, gets another chance.

(1) Surf Point won at Northam over a similar trip last start but not sure how good that form is.

If Surf Point is a chance, (7) Time Stands Still must be considered at big odds.

(3) Egg White relished getting out to this sort of distance last start but does rise in grade.

Even (6) Twentythree Red can improve third up with a rise in trip and a good draw.

Tip: (2) Stocktaka $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

197739

Race 5

Salinger Hcp (C3) (1000m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Salinger Hcp (C3) (1000m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

1. Double Jeopardy (1) J: Jett Stanley (61.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
7.57.57877
2. Pepper Assault (6) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: Holly Taylor
1.71.71.651.71.721.65
3. Snipillicious (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: A G Durrant
4. Dark City (4) J: Ryan Hill (56.5kg) T: Ms A King
6.566.56.56.26.5
5. Artic Blue (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: K J Reeves
353434413134
6. Dirty Dot (2) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: D M Luciani
1616161615.816
7. The Beach (3) J: Ms Hannah Fitzgerald (54.5kg) T: David A Smith
88898.88
8. Winnie's Wine (7) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: G C Ballantyne
111111121111

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 5:36pm (AEDT)

(2) Pepper Assault has to step up in grade today but I think she can do that. The form out of her debut win has been super and she was able to back that up with another win in Class 1 company last start. Pike sticks with and she should be hard to beat.

(4) Dark City was a moral beat when heavily backed at Northam last start. With any luck he would have won.

(6) Dirty Dot resumes without a trial for an in-form stable.

(8) Winnie’s Wine next best.

Tip: (2) Pepper Assault $2.15 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Pepper Assault

197739

Race 6

Free Entry To Belmont Park-C1 (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Free Entry To Belmont Park-C1 (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

1. Double Demerits (9) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: S W Barrass
212621212323
2. Ozzy Boy (2) J: Jett Stanley (60kg) T: J N Pateman
313134343534
3. Somethingready (6) J: Paul Harvey (59kg) T: R W Price
1010101010.210
4. Stellar Vista (4) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: Simon Miller
2.22.152.252.32.22.2
5. Kazoku (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: J F Miller
1616171616.817
6. Let's Cut Loose (3) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Simon Miller
44.44.24.44.054
7. Powerful (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham
6.565.55.56.16.5
8. Twice Lucky (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: Rhys Radford
1718171518.218
9. Safety Bay (10) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (55.5kg) T: F R Kersley
1516161515.417
10. Royal Whisper (7) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: T N Pike
91126101101131126

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

Simon Miller looks to have a stranglehold on this race.

(4) Stellar Vista was a big winner 0n debut at Pinjarra before running well behind the likes of Billy Ain’t Silly. Resumes today with one trial under the belt, Parnham takes the ride and draws well in barrier 4.

(6) Let’s Cut Loose is the stablemate with Pike on. She sat three-wide the trip and still fought on to win on debut at Ascot. Didn’t measure up in a good race at her second start but was put straight away after that. Is also fresh with one trial under the belt and can definitely win.

(3) Somethingready is racing well. (8) Twice Lucky has ability and so does (9) Safety Bay at bigger odds.

Tip: (4) Stellar Vista $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Stellar Vista

197739

Race 7

Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (1700m)
6:52pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Crown Perth Hcp (C1) (1700m)
6:52pm (AEDT)

1. Olden (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (60.5kg) T: Daniel O'connor
1213121211.213
2. Sir Rachelot (10) J: Ms Hannah Fitzgerald (60.5kg) T: Brett Pope
202119212119
3. Block Of Land (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi
777.57.56.77
4. Brave Call (12) J: Ms Lisa Staples (59.5kg) T: Rhys Radford
313131313131
5. Circle The Sun (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
9.59.59.59.59.39.5
6. Mong Khon (8) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: J N Pateman
1921171619.819
7. Trade Master (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (59kg) T: E A Martinovich
1919192118.419
8. Pambella (4) J: Steven Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
9.59.59.59.59.69
9. Sparkling Jewel (7) J: William Pike (58kg) T: G & A Williams
2.32.32.32.42.42.3
10. Belgrano Belle (5) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: L Smith
6.56.56667
11. Differentiator (6) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Greg Cave
12. See Ya Champ (11) J: Unknown (56kg) T: G C Ballantyne

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 6:56pm (AEDT)

Tough race.

(10) Belgrano Belle looked well placed at Northam last start and justified massive market support. She looked to be headed half way down the straight but fought very hard to get her head back in front. Can make the step up here.

(9) Sparkling Jewel won on debut and then failed as the odds-on favourite last start.

(3) Block Of Land finds another nice race but he’s a hard horse to catch. His past two runs have been good but they’ve been struggling to make ground at Belmont which is the query for him.

(5) Circle The Sun first up at this trip with the inside draw catches the eye.

Tip: (5) Circle The Sun E/W $11 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN/0.5 units PLACE Circle The Sun

197739

Race 8

Ascot Racing Carnival (Rs0ly) (1200m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Ascot Racing Carnival (Rs0ly) (1200m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

1. Lordhelpmerun (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (61.5kg) T: Michael Grantham
191919211719
2. Rockon Tommy (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60.5kg) T: J A Popescu
2321262626.526
3. Beret (9) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
6.56.56.56.56.66.5
4. Agent Kensington (5) J: Paul Harvey (56.5kg) T: L P Luciani
4.244.24.64.154
5. Stable Secret (2) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: B P Graham
1515151514.815
6. Love Drunk Baby (4) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: D & B Pearce
3.13.133.13.23
7. High Mist (3) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (54kg) T: David Catarino
676761717171
8. Jaguar Grey (1) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: B V Watkins
55554.65
9. Rocky Path (8) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: Vaughn Sigley
8.598.58.58.98.5

Odds Last Updated: September 15, 2021, 7:31pm (AEDT)

Keen on (8) Jaguar Grey here. He trialled really well and his debut run for Bruce Watkins was very encouraging. He sat three-wide the trip from an awkward gate and still hit the line well. Draws the inside today so expect him to sit forward and the inside of the track at Belmont has been advantageous in recent meetings. Expecting him to run top three.

(4) Agent Kensington was the beneficiary of the hot rail last week when she drew barrier 1 and got through late to make it three wins and two 2nds from five starts this preparation. Can run well again.

(6) Love Drunk Baby won well last start, leading throughout to break his maiden. Does look short enough here with the rise in grade.

(3) Beret is a good horse on her day and can fire fresh and looks a decent price.

Backing Jaguar Grey and Beret.

Tip: (8) Jaguar Grey $6.50 PlayUp

Also Backing: (3) Beret $7.00 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Jaguar Grey, 0.5 units WIN Beret

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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