Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 8th

Race 1 Free Entry To Belmont Park Mdn (2100m) 3:49pm (AEDT)
1. Rocaroyale (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: Anthony Oram	9	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.3	8.5
2. Kebalah (3) J: Ms Tyla Becker (58kg) T: B S Seinor	251	201	101	101	201	151
3. Bentley Beau (10) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson	6	6	5.5	6	6	5.5
4. Hear Me (5) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Luke Fernie	3.3	3.2	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.1
5. Ripon Falls (6) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58kg) T: Brian Carey	17	17	15	15	17.2	16
6. Egg White (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant	21	21	19	18	17.8	21
7. Just Jerry (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: Brett Pope	8	8	7.5	8	7	7.5
8. Northern Link (1) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: Brett Pope
9. Xcavate (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: C G Willis	17	17	16	16	16.6	17
10. Feuding (4) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.3	3.25	3.2

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Simply a race that is impossible to bet in to open the meeting – a maiden over 2100m.

(4) Hear Me jumped from 1400m to 2200m last start and very nearly stole it. Sure to strip fitter with that run under the belt but there’s big concerns over the strength of that form.

(10) Feuding probably comes out of the best form race behind Celevacci and Via Monte and gets up to this distance for the first time. Uncertain as to whether he’s desperate for this distance but should be competitive off his last run.

(3) Bentley Beau and (7) Just Jerry come out of the same race. The former has run four consecutive 2nd placings, while the latter looks to be suited getting up to this trip today.

We saw significant improvement from (5) Ripon Falls second up last prep when he got to this sort of distance and it would be no surprise to see similar today at knockout odds.

Keep your powder dry.

Tip: (5) Ripon Falls E/W $17 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2 Tabtouch - Better Your Bet-C1 (1000m) 4:24pm (AEDT)
1. Rain God (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (60kg) T: A G Durrant	2.35	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.35	2.4
2. Choice Bid (3) J: Chris Parnham (59.5kg) T: N D Parnham	4.4	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.4
3. My Hidden Journey (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: John Doyle	11	10	11	12	11.4	11
4. Under The Radar (7) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	12	10	11	16	14.2	10
5. Nobellity (6) J: Taj Dyson (56.5kg) T: M Santich	13	13	14	14	13.8	13
6. Eye Of The Day (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Sue Olive	7.5	8	8.5	7	6.7	7.5
7. Sumusu (5) J: William Pike (56kg) T: L Smith	7	7.5	7.5	8	6.8	7.5
8. Global Ruler (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (54.5kg) T: Andrew Dickson	41	34	34	34	43	41

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

The favourite (1) Rain God should prove hard to beat here. He won on debut before bumping into the likes of Panzdown at his second start, which has proven to be exceptionally good form. The stable is going super at the minute and you’d expect him to be the one they have to beat first up today.

I do think the $8 about (7) Sumusu is appealing with William Pike booked for Lindsey Smith. This horse had unfavourable conditions last start with the wet track but the form out of that race has stood up, with Special View since winning in Saturday grade. Back on firm ground is a major tick – she’s placed in eight of her 11 starts on the surface – and back to 1000m off an eight-week freshen is always worth taking note of with this stable.

Tip: (7) Sumusu $8.00 TopSport

Saver: (1) Rain God $2.30 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sumusu, 0.5 units WIN Rain God

Race 3 Amelia Park Lodge (Rs0ly) (1000m) 4:59pm (AEDT)
1. Diamond Blue (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (60kg) T: E A Martinovich	11	11	10	12	10	10
2. Marzipan Lad (1) J: Peter Knuckey (60kg) T: S & J Casey
3. War Gem (8) J: Steven Parnham (60kg) T: N D Parnham
4. Bitofmerit (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: Michael Campbell	4	4	4	4.2	4.15	4
5. Mahaleo (9) J: William Pike (59kg) T: F R Kersley	5	5	4.8	4.8	5.3	5
6. Pale Rider (4) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: E A Martinovich	15	14	13	15	14.2	13
7. Buzzoom (5) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: D L Morton	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.55	2.5
8. Champagne Dame (7) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (57kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	8	8.5	8	8	7.8	8.5
9. Night Shift (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: Ms R L Williams	27	26	21	26	23	23
10. Reel Safe (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: D & B Pearce	27	26	26	31	22.5	23

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

This is actually a very hot race for a midweek at Belmont.

(7) Buzzoom resumes with Chris Parnham booked for Dan Morton today on the back of one trial. Won very stylishly on debut over 1200m before failing in two subsequent runs. Resumes over 1000m today which is some query and at the shorts in a race like this I’ll be happy to sit out.

(5) Mahaleo was OK on debut over 1400m and has been back to the trials. Went very well in its trial and gets Pike sticking with today. Drops back to 1000m which is an odd set up but should be competitive.

(4) Bitofmerit has trialled enormously, jumping to the front in its two outings and coasting home. Does find a very strong race to contest on debut which is the query but they don’t trial much better.

(8) Champagne Dame has won four of its five trials leading into debut but again, might bump into some smart ones.

Tip: (4) Bitofmerit $4.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Bitofmerit

Race 4 Heineken 3 Hcp (C1) (1400m) 5:35pm (AEDT)
1. Scorpion Stormz (1) J: Chris Parnham (60.5kg) T: Joshua Krispyn	2.7	2.7	2.7	3	2.85	2.6
2. Precautionary (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (59kg) T: F R Kersley	8.5	8.5	9	9	9	8.5
3. Trade Master (8) J: Joseph Azzopardi (59kg) T: E A Martinovich	27	26	21	21	23	26
4. Tumivet (6) J: Ryan Hill (58.5kg) T: Martin Allan	6	5.5	5	5.5	5.3	5.5
5. Dream Evil (7) J: Jordan Turner (57.5kg) T: G W Dupre	15	15	16	16	13.4	15
6. Gallant Ranger (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57.5kg) T: M L Lane	8.5	8	8	8	7.7	8
7. Reguardless (10) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: Ms P Kenney	5	5	4.8	4.8	4.75	5
8. Domineer (3) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham	14	15	16	16	14.8	15
9. Port Beach (5) J: Taj Dyson (55kg) T: F R Kersley	27	26	21	26	26	26
10. Vengeance Of War (4) J: Jett Stanley (54kg) T: Ms J Mclaughlin	101	101	101	101	85	101

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 5:36pm (AEDT)

I think today is the day for (1) Scorpion Stormz who is knocking on the door for his second career win. He was good first up in a Graduation Handicap in Saturday grade before going down narrowly in a Class 3 last start. Drops back to a Class 1 today, draws the inside, Chris Parnham sticks and he’s up to 1400m so he ticks plenty of boxes.

(2) Precautionary ran well over this track and distance last start behind General Grant, who has since come out and won a Saturday race.

Pike goes on (7) Reguardless first up which catches the eye, while (9) Port Beach could be a complete blowout chance.

Tip: (1) Scorpion Stormz $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Scorpion Stormz

Race 5 Western Racepix Hcp (C3) (1200m) 6:10pm (AEDT)
1. To Rise Again (10) J: Troy Turner (60kg) T: C H Webster	7	6.5	7	7	6.9	6.5
2. Sun Chacen (4) J: Joseph Azzopardi (59.5kg) T: B P Fitzgerald	9.5	9	9.5	10	9.9	9
3. Jarman (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: G P Jones	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.8
4. Katona (5) J: Patrick Carbery (59kg) T: R G Turrell Jnr	9.5	9.5	9	9.5	9	9.5
5. King Cruzer (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (59kg) T: Ms J Erkelens	11	10	11	11	10.4	10
6. The Republican (7) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: D F Wilson	6.5	6.5	6	6.5	6.4	6
7. Powerful (8) J: Steven Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	9	9	9.5	9	8.8	9
8. Saturday Sun (1) J: Paul Harvey (57.5kg) T: D R Harrison	5.5	5.5	5	5	5.2	5.5
9. Richardson (2) J: Jason Whiting (57kg) T: G L Carige	41	41	41	51	36	41
10. Rexford (9) J: Peter Knuckey (55kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	51	61	61	71	65	51

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

(3) Jarman looks a good each way bet here at $6.50. He was huge in defeat first up at Pinjarra when coming from near last on the rail to be beaten 0.25L. He then went to Northam where he probably should have won but was held up the majority of the straight. Third up, up to 1200m and back on firm ground all suit. Just needs clear air and hopefully isn’t left with too much ground to make up.

(7) Powerful is an out-and-out dry tracker and improved as expected last start. Can run well again.

Paul Harvey goes back on (8) Saturday Sun so no surprise to see improvement from him too.

Tip: (3) Jarman E/W $6.50/$2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Jarman

Race 6 Peninsula Dining Room Hcp (C3) (1200m) 6:45pm (AEDT)
1. Standout Rose (6) J: Jason Whiting (59kg) T: B V Watkins	3.9	4	4	4.2	4	4
2. Starlift (5) J: William Pike (59kg) T: Ms P Kenney	3.8	3.9	3.8	3.9	3.75	3.8
3. Agent Kensington (1) J: Paul Harvey (58.5kg) T: L P Luciani	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.5	3.3	3.3
4. Arracity (12) J: Brad Parnham (58.5kg) T: Brian Kersley	18	16	16	16	18.2	16
5. Excelestial (8) J: Patrick Carbery (58.5kg) T: H S Mclaren	13	12	11	12	13	12
6. Igarashi (4) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	31	26	26	31	26	26
7. Looks Like Magic (2) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: B H Hyde	15	15	14	14	15	15
8. Military Beat (7) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	27	31	34	34	30	34
9. Advocator (3) J: Taj Dyson (55kg) T: F R Kersley	23	26	20	21	20.5	23
10. Fuel The Friar (10) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54.5kg) T: D R Harrison	61	61	41	41	51	51
11. Superlove (11) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54.5kg) T: D & B Pearce	27	26	21	21	20	23
12. Paris Girl (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: F R Kersley	81	81	81	101	79	81

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 6:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Standout Rose brings some very strong formlines to this race first up. She beat Miss Vasari first up last prep, before bumping into the likes of Billy Ain’t Silly and Notorious One. If she brings that form to this race, she’ll be very hard to beat.

(3) Agent Kensington draws the inside and is racing in great form, but the 1200m remains a slight query for her.

Tip: (1) Standout Rose $3.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Standout Rose

Race 7 Morley Growers Market Hcp (C5) (1400m) 7:25pm (AEDT)
1. Avalon Bay (1) J: Paul Harvey (59kg) T: T R Harvey
2. He's All Mighty (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58.5kg) T: A G Durrant	9.5	9.5	10	8.5	9.6	9
3. Brother Paddy (5) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: Coreen Maynard	46	41	41	31	43	41
4. Fire Maker (3) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (57kg) T: Ms J Panizza	27	26	26	21	20	26
5. Little Flirt (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: R W Matthews	4.6	4.6	4.4	4.6	4.6	4.4
6. Smashing (4) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham	1.8	1.8	1.85	1.9	1.92	1.8
7. Rock'n'ruler (11) J: Jordan Turner (56kg) T: G P Poletti	126	126	101	101	71	101
8. Arnie's Boy (8) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: A W Maley	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.6	4.3	4.8
9. Hyperspace (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (55kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	35	34	34	31	29	34
10. Argent D'or (10) J: Taj Dyson (54kg) T: Ms K Kersley
11. Family Discussion (6) J: Steven Parnham (54kg) T: Summer Dickson	201	201	151	151	141	151

Odds Last Updated: September 8, 2021, 7:26pm (AEDT)

Looks another nice race for (6) Smashing who is looking or three wins on the bounce. Should get a gun run from barrier 4 once again and should be winning, but the $1.80 is short enough.

(2) He’s All Mighty is 2/2 when third up from a spell and did win at Ascot after racing at Geraldton last prep, so even though he got beat at Kalgoorlie last start I wouldn’t be ruling him out.

(5) Little Flirt tends to mix her form a bit but her best is certainly good enough. Just whether she’d prefer a wet track.

Pike goes on (8) Arnie’s Boy for Ash Maley who comes into this off a run in the Junction Cup. Was contesting harder races before that so does drop in grade but is a hard horse to catch.

Tip: (6) Smashing $1.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet