Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, January 30th

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(3) Sensationalisation on top in the opener. Barrier one didn’t do her any favours last start when caught behind the leader and unable to build momentum until late. Whether she’d have won I’m not sure, but she was only getting warmed up through the line and should get every chance from barrier 6.

 

(6) Shojiki is the danger bringing the different form. She drifted heavily first up but still ran okay, getting the run of the race but just battling over the last 100m when having every chance. This is a big tougher race again, but she does have upside.

 

(4) Vespertine was a touch wide last start but finished off well, only a head off Sensationalisation. I’d expect her to go forward which can be tough at the 1400m start.

 

Tip: (3) Sensationalisation $3.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Sensationalisation

 

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Very open race with a few usual suspects. (6) Aussie Nugget loves to find one or two better. He was probably the run of the race last start when making up ground from a long way back, but I’d have preferred him up in trip now 4^th up.

 

(2) Think ‘n’ Fly was in the same race and also a very good run. He finished ahead of Aussie Nugget the start prior in a fast run race. How far back he gets from barrier 11 is an issue.

 

(5) High ‘n’ Dry is the in-form horse, having won two of his last three. He bolted in last start to bring his 1600m record to 3 wins from 5 starts. He draws a bit awkwardly in barrier 8 but is the hardest to beat.

 

(1) Dubai Dominion has won his last two, the latest in the Koroit Cup over Duke Of Plumpton, who ran 2^nd here on Tuesday. He gets the 3kg claim for Campbell Rawiller and maps to land right on speed.

 

(4) Strategic Phil looks ready to win and brings some different form. He ran well behind Viral and Rule The World last start and was wide and good two back behind Vassilator. I think the open handicap form could be a touch better than the bm78 form, and Strategic Phil looks perfectly suited here 4^th up at the 1600m, both of which he has a good record at. At this stage of last prep he ran 2^nd to Holbein which is good form.

 

Tip: (4) Strategic Phil $10.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy – 0.5 units WIN Strategic Phil

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

On a tough day, (3) Hasseltoff looks one of the better bets of the day. He was truck loaded in betting last start to start $2.25 and found all sorts of bad luck from barrier one, only getting out late when the race was over. He was beaten 2.8L but you can make the case he should’ve won there. The win two back over 1700m was dominant, and the step back up in trip looks ideal. He should get the run of the race from barrier 3 and be very hard to beat.

 

Main danger Great House has been scratched, leaving me all the keener on Hasseltoff.

 

(2) Upswing was a strong winner first up and should have improvement to come with a good 2^nd up record.

 

(10) War Critic was good last start and won the start prior. He loses nothing with D Lane taking over and is some hope from a wide barrier.

 

Tip: (3) Hasseltoff $3.20 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy – 3 units WIN Hasseltoff

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(2) Enthaar is all the rage here after a spectacular debut win in Sydney, sitting wide but powering away to win by 3L in fast time. She’s looked the number one 2yo seed since then, and the Werribee trial was very good. Can’t take $1.30 but she should be winning.

 

(1) Ingratiating beat General Beau on debut which has worked out to be good form with that horse winning the Preview on Tuesday. He then went under as the odds on favourite to Finance Tycoon who beat the MM winner Shaquero.

 

Can’t see any of the debutants challenging the two in the market.

 

Tip: (2) Enthaar $1.30 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

The feature, and easily best race of the day is the Manfred Stakes for the 3yos, with this field all males. Blue Diamond winner (1) Tagaloa resumes after jumping out well. He ran first up at this T/D last prep with 59.5kg and as he usually does, battled strongly to run a narrow 3^rd to the swoopers. He’s still penalised being the only group one winner in the field but ticks a lot of boxes here. He’s run 1.8L 2^nd to Farnan on a soft 7, so I wouldn’t expect a wet track to be a huge issue.

 

(3) Aysar resumes after a big 3yo Spring, running 2^nd in the guineas and 2^nd in the Carbine Club. He should have some residual fitness from that but hasn’t jumped out which seems odd. He’ll be better up to 1600m again I think but is an obvious chance here.

 

(4) Dickin Medal has won both career starts in fast time, but these are much better horses he’s up against. He does have race fitness on his side which will take him a long way.

 

(6) Zion pulled up with cardiac arrythmia last start when $4.20 behind Dickin Medal. He should’ve won the start before, but if I’m taking on Dickin Medal it’s hard to get involved with Zion coming off a concerning run.

 

Tip: (1) Tagaloa $4.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Tagaloa

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

If this was 1000m I’d be launching at (1) Elderflower for the third time in a row, because she’s absolutely flying, having bolted in by 2.8L and 3.5L at her last two starts. She’s only had two starts beyond 1000m, one at 1200m at start 2 where she ran 3^rd, and 2^nd up this prep where she ran 5^th to Miss Albania at this T/D. She has run 2^nd on a heavy 10 in weaker grade but would prefer a dry track.

 

(2) Hidden Legend produced a big run at this T/D last start to beat Paperboy. This is a higher benchmark race, but the field is no stronger and a wet track will be no issue. If Elderflower is stopping over the last 50m, he could be the one to run her down.

 

(3) Montenegro Man is racing very well and whilst I think he’s better over 1200m, the form around Bandersnatch and Riding The Wave from his last two starts read well for this. Kah keeps the ride and he’s another that will be charging late.

 

(9) Ginger Jones races well fresh and at 1200m. A very wet track might be an issue but anything in the soft range should be fine. Barrier one could be an issue if the inside is chopping out.

 

Tip: (2) Hidden Legend $6.50 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

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Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(4) Yulong Captain looks set to peak here 4^th up and gets a lot in his favour. He was unlucky here 2^nd up over 2000m behind Takumi, who won again on Australia Day, and put in a huge run from last at Flemington behind Coolth, comfortably running the race fastest splits. With two 2000m runs under his belt, he’s got the perfect platform to step up to his preferred 2400m, and Lane keeping the ride from a much kinder middle barrier all points to him being very hard to beat.

 

(1) Long Arm is the obvious danger. The import was a strong winner first up over 1600m, when the very fast tempo obviously suited. Whether that left him a bit flat 2^nd up or the more even tempo was against I’m not sure, but he seemingly had every chance sitting in the 1-1. Yulong Captain was clearly the better run, visually and sectionally, although I’d expect Long Arm to bounce back from that. He did start 1/3 of Yulong Captain’s price and is now longer in the market. To counter that, he’s never seen a wet track and barrier two looks a bit sticky.

 

Pretty confident the winner comes from the two mentioned, with obvious knocks on the rest of the field. (3) Tarn’s Prince was a good winner last start but that was a very poor race, and he had every chance.

 

Happy to back Yulong Captain, and could save on the quinella with Long Arm who looks the only danger.

 

Tip: (4) Yulong Captain $3.70 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Yulong Captain

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(9) Charleise on top here. Her 2^nd up record isn’t great, but all of her 2^nd up form is in group/listed company, mainly as a younger horse. I think she’s developed into a fairly consistent mare now, and I didn’t mind the first up run over an unsuitable 1200m, running the race fastest last 400m and 200m behind Open Minded and Zoushack. She’s better suited at 1400m and a wet track only enhances her chances. She gets in well with 56kg and if she can get off the fence from barrier two, I think she’ll be in the finish.

 

(2) Hasstobegood was an enormous winner at Flemington last start, winning by 4L. Her form prior was consistent but that was a huge spike and I have to wonder if she’ll rate down quite significantly. Barrier 10 at the Caulfield 1400m as opposed to a middle draw at Flemington is a big change too.

 

(7) Need New Friends is racing very well and a soft track will be fine, but she was out on her feet late last start and barely clung on over 1300m, so the 1400m has to be a query.

 

(10) Sky Horse will get over further but likes wet tracks and has some decent 3yo form from last prep.

 

Tip: (9) Charleise $6.50 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Charleise

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(3) Defibrillate is clearly the horse to beat in the final race, having won his last two in impressive fashion. The form out of those races is clearly the strongest here, with Paradee winning twice at the Gold Coast and Mosh Music and Double You Tee running the quinella at Sandown last week. He draws barrier 11 here which means he likely gets a long way back, and I found it interesting that he drops back to the 1800m 4^th up, rather than staying at 2000m or stepping up in trip again. I’m inclined to wait and see what the market does with him, because $3.00 would be a bet but $2.50 is just a bit short.

 

(6) Pancho wasn’t far off the favourite two back in the Lord Stakes but failed last start when sent out at $5.50. Perhaps he didn’t run the 2000m there, so the drop in trip and 3kg weight swing should be in his favour.

 

(9) Heavenly Emperor is racing very well and often fights out the finish due to his racing pattern and grit. He’s never seen 1800m which is a concern, but a soft track should be fine, and 54kg with Kah on should see him competitive.

 

(2) Blenheim Palace is making his Australian debut and the international form reads very well. He ran 4^th to Latrobe in a group 3 at his second start, and 3^rd to Norway and Buckhurst just two starts ago. The 1800m will likely be a bit short of his best and he had to be scrubbed along in the 900m trial to hold down a narrow 2^nd.

 

Tip: (3) Defibrillate – $2.60 at TopSport

 

Betting Strategy – No Bet