Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, January 8th

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 12:47pm (AEDT)

(4) Philosopher has been well supported into even money early off the back of some good jumpout wins against experienced horses. Expect he gets every chance up on speed from barrier 2.

(6) Bonheur has also jumped out very well, the latest clearing out by 7 lengths. She looks every bit a group class filly.

(8) Jewellery in for 3rd, who again has been good on speed in her jumpouts at Flemington.

Not keen to bet in a 2yo race with no exposed form but this could potentially be a good form race- Philosopher and Bonheur particularly look quite talented.

Tip: (6) Bonheur- $4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 1:22pm (AEDT)

(7) Packers Bond can run well here at a price. He was far too good at Kilmore two runs back before having no luck at The Valley last start where he should’ve finished much closer to Daqiansweet Junior, who has won again in a blanket finish, beating home The Awesome Son. Can’t see the 2400m being an issue and at double figures he should go well.

(2) The Awesome Son is the obvious and did hit the line well in that blanket go last start. He looks like the extra trip will suit given he just always grinds away and takes a long time to pick up. He’s up in the weights now but this race lacks a bit of depth and he can win again.

(5) Ruru will go forward and be handy which could make a lot of difference. He was found out a bit last start in a very fast run race but he should at least be 100% fit and if he can get a softer time on speed he’ll give them something to chase.

Tip: (7) Packers Bond- $11.00/3.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Packers Bond, 1 unit PLC Packers Bond

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 1:57pm (AEDT)

Found this quite tough in what will likely be a tactical affair. (3) Jagar is coming out of slowly run races but looks ready for 1400m. She was the best last 600/400/200m of the race last start but the overall time wasn’t great.

(1) Lavish Girl was too good last start dropping back to this grade after a solid showing in stakes grade before. She’s right up in the weights now and meets Luna Cat 4.5kg worse, but maps for a very soft run again and did beat her relatively easily.

(2) Luna Cat as mentioned gets a 4.5kg weight swing for a 1.5L defeat last start. The win prior over 1200m at The Valley was dominant although she does draw a touch awkwardly here.

 (4) Russians won well at Canterbury last start and looks suited to 1400m. 

Couldn’t split most of these. With little confidence I’ll put Lavish Girl on top because she gets the best map.

Tip: (1) Lavish Girl- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 2:32pm (AEDT)

Good little clash. (5) Marine One did a fair bit wrong but was far too good at Pakenham over 1000m. He’s had a very quiet jumpout in between runs but he did work to the line well under a tight hold despite finishing near the back. The query with him is a strong 1100m- all his form is at 1000m aside from the 1200m Coolmore, where he was simply outclassed. Prepared to think with Maher/Eustace he can get the trip.

(2) In The Boat is hard to knock, having won his last two leading all the way. He was able to cross from a wide gate two back over 1300m and it’ll be interesting to see if he can do so here from the carpark at 1100m. Sitting wide at this course isn’t necessarily a bad thing however.

(1) Florescent Star takes on the boys but won well last start down the straight and has run well at this T/D in higher grade, albeit against her own sex. Top weight against a couple of handy males will be tough.

 (9) Wilmot Pass will be running on as he always does, but he’ll need luck from barrier 1.

Tip: (5) Marine One- $3.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Marine One

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 3:07pm (AEDT)

(3) Dirty Deeds had no luck last start at Flemington, trapped 3 wide no cover throughout and then in restricted room late. The effort to stick on, only beaten 3.1L was quite solid and she can settle close from barrier 1 up in trip, with a positive jockey switch to Josh Richards.

(7) Reliable Dude was badly held up in the same race and flashed late in a real ‘back me next start’ sort of run. He doesn’t have any form past a mile but as an older horse now the 1800m looks okay, and he was only 2nd up last start. 

(5) Curly Burgin blew the start and it was race over last start at Flemington. He ran on well all things considered, but will get back again and it’ll be a tricky ride for Logan McNeil.

(2) The Regiment is honest and I prefer him back to 1800m. He can land leader’s back from barrier 2 and be thereabouts again.

Tip: (3) Dirty Deeds- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dirty Deeds

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 3:47pm (AEDT)

Annoyingly Criaderas has come out because I thought there was a good bet in (9) Excelman here who we’ve taken a very good price about in the Premium Discord group. He won well first up in the grey’s race before a slow start cost him 2nd up in a group 3 dominated by those on speed. He should be ready to do something here and gets in with just 51kg 3rd up with a good draw. 

(4) Holbein led all the way for us last start at $17 and will lead and rail again from barrier 1. Big query is 2000m for him with a weight increase but he’s racing very well and if he can get some cheap sectionals he might be able to pinch it again.

The problem for Holbein is (7) Starcaster who typically goes out very keen in the lead. He did that last start and fell in after going out 15L above average for Werribee 2000m races. Linda sticks which is ideal, it’ll just depend how tractably he races.

(5) In A Twinkling will appreciate the 2000m after chasing well behind Holbein last start. A faster run race will also suit. 

Tip: (9) Excelman- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Excelman

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 4:27pm (AEDT)

Keen to back two here. (2) Open Minded should be ready to peak 3rd up after sticking on very well last start in a genuinely run race behind Second Slip and Blazejowski. He’s 2/2 at Caulfield and I’ve got no issue with him at 1400m, especially as he maps for a beautiful run either leading or just behind. 

(4) Neighbourhood struggles to win but was good late in the same race as Open Minded. It’ll be a tricky ride for Neindorf but the horse is bursting to put a winning performance together.

 (3) Curran has drifted early which doesn’t shock me, as the 1400m is unknown territory. He did run fairly well behind Marabi over 1100m last start but I thought his run in Cup Week in a fast 1200m really saw him out, so the trip is a worry.

No knocks on (6) Sig Positano other than the price which looks quite short. He’s up in grade but racing very well and hasn’t had the best of luck. A definite winning chance, I just can’t get him $2.30.

Tip: (2) Open Minded- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (4) Neighbourhood- $9.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Open Minded, 0.5 units WIN Neighbourhood

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 5:07pm (AEDT)

Good race. (9) It’sourtime looked home last start but was just nailed on the line with 2.5L back to 3rd. Don’t mind him back to 1100m or back around Caulfield where he’s run very well in the past. He maps for a decent run midfield. 

(15) Scorched Earth returned with a bang over 1000m down the straight, showing a nice turn of foot to win comfortably. This is harder but she may have just come back very well as a more experienced filly. 

(11) Yulong Command was no match for Scorched Earth but does meet her much better at the weights, and will be much better suited around a bend. Drawn 1, he’s very quick and should be able to lead on the fence. I do prefer him at 1000m but 1100m isn’t too bad. 

(13) Calypso Reign is racing well in SA at listed level. He’ll get back but there looks strong tempo. 

Tip: (9) It’sourtime- $4.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN It’sourtime

Odds Last Updated: January 8, 2022, 5:47pm (AEDT)

(10) Vespertine flew late first up down the straight to just miss in a very good return. I would’ve loved to see her at 1200m now but she’s clearly come back very well and was a horse to follow. 

(6) Award Winner was rock solid in the same race and is 1/1 at this T/D, beating Florescent Star. 

(16) Jezoulenko was too good on speed over this T/D last time. She takes on the older mares here but has upside. The race didn’t rate all that well last start.

(4) Cloudy drops in grade from a bm88 in Sydney last start. A firmer track may help.

Typically impossible fillies and mares race. Vespertine on top but she’ll need a bit of luck from barrier 3 and staying at 1100m is a slight knock, so not going crazy.

Tip: (10) Vespertine- $6.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Vespertine