Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, July 24th

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Gee this is a tough opener. (1) Mahamedeis is the class of the field but I’m not sure where he’s at. He was ridden forward last start and didn’t finish off, but the two starts prior were also very average and a proper wet track isn’t ideal.

(7) Reflect The Stars has been solid in two runs back this prep and will be suited getting to 2400m. Another with queries on a heavy track but her best form around the likes of Tralee Rose is strong for this.

(8) Cakewalk Baby comes out of the weak 3yo series but does handle heavy going and her run last start was quite good.

(3) Maseratie Bay was good at Flemington two back but awful at Rosehill on a heavy last start and hasn’t really handled wet tracks in the past.

(6) Auf Weidersehen could be the best roughie because he’ll love the conditions and stay all day, but he gets in awfully at the weights given his rating.

Shouldering arms to this – wouldn’t be shocked if anything won. 

Tip: (1) Mahamedeis - $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

(1) Great Again loves wet tracks and does have a bit of class. Some query going 1000m up to 1400m but he’s with a stable that can do it and he wasn’t suited at 1000m last start. His 1400m record is solid enough.

(3) The Inevitable was a bit plain first up but can improve. Had 8 weeks between runs since then and 1400m is potentially his limit.

(2) Dark Dream is a big watch first up coming back from Hong Kong. Class horse on his day and although 1400m is short of his best but he has trialled well.

(8) Why Choose Her plummets in the weights and wasn’t bad last start behind Lindhout.

Great Again has the class to win this and likely goes straight to the front. His run in the Wangoom first up is good enough to win this, it’s just whether he’s all out at the end of 1400m. The wetter the better and it should be around a soft 7-heavy 8.

Tip: (1) Great Again - $3.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Great Again

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Regulus was good on debut at Flemington, looking a great winning chance but getting a bit lost in the final 200m and peaking on his run late. Would think 1400m will suit and has already run well on a soft 6. Kah jumps off but Willo on is no knock.

Kah sticks with (4) Reynaire who won okay last start at 1200m. Up in trip now but draws awkwardly.

(10) Cherrypick ran quite well on debut in what could be a decent race at Caulfield won by Libiamo. Has to go 1100m to 1400m but if the inside is okay she’ll do no work in the run.

(9) Pammy Joy might be value. The debut run behind Mennea was good, with that horse then starting a well backed $1.90 favourite in the Regulus race. Mennea didn’t show up at all in that race, but if you trust the SP to some extent Pammy Joy has some claims. She’s since come and out and sat 3 wide on speed at Echuca and won easily on a heavy 10. Goes forward, handles wet, might give them something to chase.

Tip: (9) Pammy Joy - $9.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (5) Regulus - $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pammy Joy, 0.5 units WIN Regulus

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 1:51pm (AEDT)

Good little contest. (6) Miss Albania gets a lot in her favour here, it’s just whether she handles a wet track. She ran a narrow 2nd to La Mexicana at this T/D at the end of last prep and gets a large 8kg weight swing from that run. She’s jumped out very well, likely goes straight to the lead and if she handles the track, she should just win.

(1) La Mexicana loves it wet which is the danger. She’s a good filly, unbeaten at 1100m and also at Caulfield. If Miss Albania doesn’t handle the track, La Mexicana probably wins.

(2) Absolute Flirt ran 3rd in that race beaten 0.6L so she’s obviously up to these. The win first up was solid, given an outstanding ride by D Lane. That was on a soft 7 so the track should be fine, although she does lose Lane for Kelly who claims 3kg.

(4) Propelle is going well- she was a narrow 2nd to Absolute Flirt two back and did rip home in the 2nd fastest last 600/400m of the meeting last start behind Red Can Man in a stronger race, only 3L away. Not completely hopeless.

If you knew Miss Albania would handle a heavy track she’d be almost a max bet, but playing a bit more cautiously with the unknown.

Tip: (6) Miss Albania - $2.25 at Bet365

Value: (4) Propelle - $15.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Miss Albania, 0.25 units WIN Propelle

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 2:26pm (AEDT)

Going to follow up with a roughie here in an open race in the form of (3) Easy Beast. I made a case for him at $101 last start and I actually thought he ran okay. He trucked into the race behind the speed nicely, but hit a dead end and was stopped in his tracks. He didn’t do much late, but I think he needs to build momentum rather than sprint quickly. Drops in grade here whilst also dropping in weights due to the claim, and once again maps just behind a hot speed. He’s also very effective on wet tracks and at $41/9 he’s a shout 1×3.

(4) And Beyond is an unbeaten Tasmanian gelding who we have seen in Melbourne once before, beating Curran in a bm64 at Sandown one day. He’s obviously a handy horse and very consistent, coming off a $1.45 SP last start.

(8) Scantoon had every possible in the same race as Easy Beast last start and beat that horse home by 3L. Easy Beast meets him 4kg better at the weights after the claim and is nearly 10x his price here which seems a big discrepancy.

(5) Chassis won well last week, takes on the boys here but likes wet ground and is rock hard fit.

Tip: (3) Easy Beast - $41.00/9.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Easy Beast

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

Interesting little race. (3) Murrumbidgee River was enormous in defeat last start, getting a mile back and charging to the line to just miss over 1800m. Gets to 2400m very quickly at his 3rd ever career start, but the stable are lethal at staying trips, Kah sticks with him, and he’s got so much upside. I think he’ll relish the trip and be very hard to hold out late.

(4) Capricorn Ridge is the query. His last start win was huge, settling back and powering away to win by 6L at Ballarat in a class 1 on a heavy track. He relished a good tempo there but his form prior in SA was just fair. If he can produce a similar run to last start he probably deserves to be favourite, but I think he could regress a touch.

(1) Token Spirit is going very well, is rock hard fit coming off two 2400/2500m wins. Loses Kah but is probably the only horse to take out of those 3yo staying races.

(11) Dubai Moon is still a maiden but plummets in the weights and has had a couple of jumps’ trials so should be hard fit.

Happy to stick with Murrumbidgee River but I doubt he starts much shorter- the market might find Capricorn Ridge off the last start win and take on Murrumbidgee River with the map, but Kah for Maher/Eustace at 2400m might keep it firm.

Tip: (3) Murrumbidgee River - $3.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Murrumbidgee River

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

(4) Sacred Palace is an interesting runner. He promised a bit early this prep but found bad luck, then finally put a good win on the board two back at Bendigo before hitting the line very nicely last start behind Deep Speed, running the 2nd fastest last 200m of the race. Onto a wetter track will only help, and now that he’s found form he should run well again.

(5) Duke Of Neworleans is always a horse I’ve had time for. He was awful first up leading and fading at Moe, but I loved the win last start at Sale. He settled back with the blinkers off and it worked, running the fastest last 600m of the meeting despite being held up for most of the straight. The form out of that race has been solid, he drops 5kg and looks progressive.

(2) The Big Easy got a nice ride in Sydney last start and won quite well. He’s consistent and ties in through the All Of Brighton 3yo form.

(9) Stripped Back gets in with 52kg and has run well in two wet track runs.

Tip: (4) Sacred Palace - $8.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Duke Of Neworleans - $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sacred Palace, 0.5 units WIN Duke Of Neworleans

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

The feature of the day is the Bletchingly Stakes at group 3 level over 1200m. Tricky little race. (5) Red Can Man was a touch disappointing down the straight first up but bounced back with a good win over Malkovich in the lead up. Getting to 1200m suits, but the query is a wet track. Both soft track runs have missed a place and I’m not sure he’s as effective.

(2) Viridine was backed off the map against RCM last start and didn’t have much luck. He got on the back of Order Of Command who took him no where and was forced to go back to the inside, hitting the line well in the race fastest last 200m. He’s unbeaten at the Caulfield 1200m and has no issue with a wet track. Won this race last year and can do so again.

(1) Streets Of Avalon has the class and did beat Viridine first up last prep at 1200m in the Australia Stakes, but Viridine did just get the better of him in this race last year. They were both on good tracks, which Streets Of Avalon doesn’t really handle. If they don’t scratch, I think it’s advantage Viridine on a soft track.

(3) Order Of Command can improve. His 2nd up record is very good but he was plain in the John Monash. 2nd up last prep he ran 2nd, beaten 3.5L by Eduardo in the Galaxy.

No knock on (9) The Astrologist who is very tough and will be on speed.

Tip: (2) Viridine - $5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Viridine

Odds Last Updated: July 24, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

Tough finish. (6) Zesty Belle probably deserves to be favourite after a very good run first up after sitting wide. Gets in with 52kg here.

(8) Bubbly Lass is racing well, likes wet tracks. Don’t think the race she was in last start was very good behind Hai Sun, the run prior behind COmica was good.

(7) Safe Passage won well first up last prep. Did win on a soft 7 on debut in NZ and a win over Don’ttelltheboss reads fairly well.

(9) Continuance is a strange conveyance but may relish a very light weight as she takes a long time to pick up, but does like wet tracks.

Tip: (6) Zesty Belle - $3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet