Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, November 27th

(1) Brereton has the race experience and will be hard to beat. Just nosed out on debut at this T/D, he then nosed out Renosu down the straight. He draws soft and it’ll take a good debutant to knock him off.

(6) Ebhaar does look the most likely danger. She’s trialled very well in Sydney and has a strong sprinting pedigree. Small query where she gets to from the wide draw- I expect she’ll go back. 

(9) Moko next best on debut who has jumped out well.

Tip: (1) Brereton- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Brereton

Strange race with last start 16 length winner (2) True Marvel dropping from 3800m to 3200m. He’s an absolute stayer up in class and it’ll be interesting to see if he can measure up. 

(4) Accountability should get firm ground which he needs. He was no match for Team Captain (ex. Yulong Captain) last start but still beat home some good horses including Adelaide Cup winner Good Idea. The inside draw is ideal for him and the weight scale suits too. Hard to beat.

(8) Lion’s Share has found some form her last two. She was good in a fast race two back, just missing Nobel Heights who was dominant in Adelaide last week. Accountability beat her fair and square last start but there was only 2.2L between them and she can run well.

Not a big betting race but I think True Marvel is too short up in grade and back in trip despite his dominant win last start.

Tip: (4) Accountability- $2.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Lion’s Share- $17.00/3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Accountability, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Lion’s Share

(1) Decent Raine was a deserved winner last week at Ballarat, recording a dominant victory. Different set up this week drawn wide in a bigger field and likely getting back. She’s been up a long time and now on the back up, I think she can be beaten.

(2) Star Of Chaos has the all-important Espiona form. Okay she was beaten 6.5L but it was a good effort to hold down 2nd and still beat home a lot of city grade competitive fillies. She’s racing well and gets a nice map.

(3) Lady Of Honour was a tough winner last start at Sandown, leading and kicking to hold them off. She probably leads again from barrier 1 and won’t be easy to get past.

Don’t love the draw for (9) Allegretta but she resumed with a good maiden win sitting OSL and looks to have come back well. She wasn’t far off Elusive Express on debut last prep and looks progressive enough to be competitive here.

Tip: (2) Star Of Chaos- $5.50 at TopSport

Also Backing: (3) Lady Of Honour- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Allegretta- $17.00/4.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Star Of Chaos, 0.5 units WIN Lady Of Honour, 0.25 units E/W Allegretta

Great little 1000m race. Not dropping off (7) Curran who comes out of a very strong race behind Quantico who recorded some big figures. Curran was backed into $3.60 there and potentially didn’t run out a very strong 1200m. His run prior at 1000m on an unsuitable soft track was very good in a harder race, and he beat Yulong Command over 955m first up in a great chase. Loves Caulfield, hard to beat.

(6) Streetcar Stranger is a massive price for a horse of his ability. He was very plain first up but did race wide and got very keen. He’s also never performed well first up but generally improves 2nd up. He was deeper in the prep but did win at this T/D at $2.90 last prep.

(9) Enthaar is the tricky one. She wasn’t fast away first up down the straight but wasn’t bad behind Profiteer. She had ear muffs on there and reportedly had her head down at the start which can’t have helped. They come off for the race and we know her best 1000m form as a 2yo is very good, including a dominant win at this T/D over Ingratiating. Barrier 12 makes things interesting. She’d need to jump and muster to cross a few fast horses.

(13) Yulong Command had every chance to beat Curran first up when leading but did run very well and atoned for it with a comfortable win over another 955m race last start. This is much harder but he’s a fast horse and will be there for a long time.

Main bet Curran, small result Enthaar because she’s too good to lose on, and Streetcar Stranger looks the roughie.

Tip: (7) Curran- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) Streetcar Stranger- $34.00/8.50 at Bet365

Saver: (9) Enthaar- $4.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Curran, 0.5 units WIN Enthaar, 0.25 units E/W Streetcar Stranger

Missed the price about (9) Steinem who looks very well placed. She comes out of the Empire Rose where she got back to last and ran on for 9th, beaten 3L by Colette. She’s the one to beat with 56kg but she’s going to get back and need the right run.

(1) Quantum Mechanic was very good in the Toorak two back, 2L off I’m Thunderstruck, but a bit plain last start in the Cantala. Her best is good enough but she’s had two 1600m group 1 races and might be feeling it, especially with 59kg.

(4) Tricky Gal was solid in Sydney last start and did run a narrow 2nd in this race last year. She’s got a good record at 1600m and draws well.

(11) Perfect World is way up in grade but was completely luckless last start, another victim of barrier 1 at The Valley. She has run a narrow 2nd at stakes level over a mile and looks to have come back well.

Tip: (9) Steinem- $3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

(2) Port Louis is looking for 1600m. His Blue Sapphire run was awful but the runs either side have been very good, the latest at 1400m behind Bend The Knee at Flemington. He’s got 1600m form last prep, backed from $34 into $5 for a Champagne and not beaten far. He beat home Daily Bugle there by 1.5L, who was exactly 1.5L off Brigantine in the Carbine Club. He potentially has more improvement up to the mile, but is going to get back in the field and need a good ride/tempo, which there does look on paper.

(12) Festival Dancer comes down from NSW having won her last 4, all at 1600m. She puts herself on speed and will be hard to get past but this is much harder than her recent races and she looks to cop more pressure.

With Brigantine out Port Louis does look the one to beat.

Tip: (2) Port Louis- $4.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Port Louis

(1) Spanish Mission will deservedly be all the rage coming off a 3rd in the Melbourne Cup to Verry Elleegant, now facing a field of group 3 horses at WFA. Small knocks at the price are back to 2400m which he hasn’t raced at since September 2019, and if the Melbourne Cup took a fair bit out of him with the setbacks, he had leading in. On weights and margins he’s a complete moral but I don’t want to take $1.55.

The one at odds that can at least run a place is (9) Silent Sovereign. She’s completely set to peak here 4th up on the quick backup, which looks an ideal platform. Getting out to 2000m last week helped as she dead-heated a very strong bm84 and her best form is 2400m+, which she hasn’t seen that many times. She gets a soft draw and can run well.

(2) Warning is the obvious out of the Queen Elizabeth, where he led and was too good, now meeting those behind him better at the weights. He’s won his last two and looks the main danger if Spanish Mission doesn’t show up.

Tip: (9) Silent Sovereign- $21.00/3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Silent Sovereign

(6) Our Playboy looks short enough coming out of the heavy 10 Cranbourne Cup. He was very good there and gets in well again but draws sticky in 1, has to extend to 1800m and is back on a dry deck.

(3) Hang Man looks the best roughie in the race. His first two runs this prep have been soild and he should be ready to do something 3rd up. He didn’t have much hope last start in a race dominated on speed, having to run the race fastest last 1000/800m to try and get into it. Caulfield is his track, he’s won at 1800m here before and at $31 he’s worth a ticket.

(9) Bonvicini comes out of the Matriarch behind Zayydani who won the Ballarat Cup last week. She was rock solid there and very good late behind Milton Park the start prior, which ties in a few of these. Don’t mind her back to 1800m because I think 2000m is her upper limit, and she gets a soft map.

(10) Royal Mile is a ripper, having only missed the quinella twice from eleven starts, one in an SA Derby. He’s adaptable and 1800m is probably his sweet spot, having bolted in a listed Port Adelaide Guineas over this trip last prep.

Tip: (10) Royal Mile- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (9) Bonvicini- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Hang Man- $31.00/6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Hang Man, 0.5 units WIN Bonvicini, 0.5 units WIN Royal Mile

Forgive (1) Streets Of Avalon for last start in a VRC Sprint down the straight where he was completely unsuited racing solo and beaten 8L by Nature Strip. His form prior was actually very good- 2.5L off Jonker in a Manikato, 1L off Superstorm in a Feehan, 2.8L off Behemoth in a Memsie. He’s not a group 1 horse but is still a dual group 1 winner at this T/D, so gets in very well under WFA. Finally draws a gate and will run well provided the track is good, which it should be.

(7) I Am Superman was luckless in the Classique Legend last start behind Eduardo and Lost And Running. Some query that he’s never placed from 5 starts when 3rd up and generally does his best racing early in a prep. Like Streets Of Avalon, he needs a good track.

(4) Age Of Chivalry was tough winning for us at Flemington before failing on the heavy ground at Cranbourne. If he’s come through that he can win.

(3) Ranier was good late first up behind Age Of Chivalry and gets a weight swing here. He’s 1/1 at this T/D and will just need some luck from barrier 3.

Tip: (1) Streets Of Avalon- $7.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Streets Of Avalon