Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, October 9th

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

(1) Brereton has trialled very nicely leading in, seemingly having plenty to offer. He’s an expensive colt by Zoustar and the early market support has been with him.

(4) Immortality showed speed in a Caulfield jumpout and the Mick Price yard have been on fire with their 2yo’s 

(7) Renosu might be the best roughie. Not often a Godolphin 2yo with Willo on is $34.

Big field with most on debut, happy to leave this alone. If you wanted to spec a roughie Renosu is the way I’d lean, but I don’t like betting in 2yo races generally.

Tip: (7) Renosu- $34.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Couple of old favourites here. (1) So Si Bon wasn’t bad first up in the Testa Rossa won by Chaillot. He was outsprinted in a slowly run race but kept coming, only beaten 1.4L. He won over 1400m 2nd up last prep carrying 60kg and maps just behind the speed from barrier 1.

(2) Buffalo River is definitely one of mine and was okay in the Rupert Clarke first up, copping plenty of pressure and going fast in front but wasn’t beaten all that far, 3.8L off Sierra Sue. Given he was in the worst ground and the swoopers came to the fore, to be just 1.4L off Beau Rossa was a solid effort. His last two 2nd up runs have been a 2L 3rd in a Toorak and a 2L 3rd in a Group 2 Blamey. There’s absolutely no pressure for the lead here and if he’s anywhere near his best he’ll take a power of running down.

(3) Newhart can improve in a faster run race, he got keen in the Testa Rossa and wasn’t too bad.

Tip: (2) Buffalo River- $3.50 at Pointsbet

Also Backing: (1) So Si Bon- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Buffalo River, 0.5 units WIN So Si Bon

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(7) Lombardo is clearly the horse to beat and another one of my favourites, I just think he’s a bit short at $1.80. His last two wins have been utterly dominant in fast time. He had no weight but sprinted very nicely at The Valley last start and I’m confident he measures right up, I just don’t want to take odds on.

(3) Pandemic is a danger and should probably be a bit closer. The leader got away with murder up front on his resumption and he did a good job to get into 2nd.  Given the leader ran the equal fastest last 200m of the race, it was near impossible for him to win given the race shape. Olly has ridden the horse to a good win at this T/D and he drops 2.5kg in weight.

(9) Ocean Beyond was the unlucky runner in that race, going for runs closer to the inside and not really ever seeing clear air. His last 50m and work through the line once clear was a bit hidden and despite meeting Pandemic worse at the weights, I think he’s come back well. The tickover jumpout was good at Coleraine and suggest he’s here to win.

Tip: (3) Pandemic- $9.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (9) Ocean Beyond- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pandemic, 0.5 units WIN Ocean Beyond

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

Fairly keen to back three horses here. The horse to beat is clearly (3) Crystal Bound for mine. I don’t love the race she won first up but the stable and yard watchers said she wasn’t nearly at peak fitness, so to beat a few of the fillies she meets here again was a good effort. 2nd up in her first prep at 1200m she was only just beaten by Jamaea which is good form for this. Drawn 1, she either leads or box seats and should go close.

(11) Spinning is a big price. She was tradesman like at Horsham first up at $1.30 but got the job done, and the horse she beat did win his maiden the other day. Go back to Spinning’s first two runs, she went within a nose of Gimmie Par on debut, who ran very well last week in a Danehill, and then started $2.80 and ran 3rd to Generation, only a head off Lina’s Legend. That all reads well, she’ll get back here but the tempo is strong and at $27 she’s definitely overs given Gimmie Par would be favourite here.

(14) Forever And A Day is the blowout at 100s. Again, I don’t think the race she comes out at Flemington was much good, but she started $3 favourite there over 1000m and battled on for 2nd. Given her two career runs beforehand were over 1200m and 1400m, the effort was solid, and Niccolite has come out of that race and won impressively at Mornington. The winner of that race was New York Baby who is $6 here, yet Forever And A Day started favourite and is $126.

Backing Crystal Bound the win, something 1×2 Spinning who I think will start shorter given her SP profile and form last prep, and a spec each way Forever And A Day.

Tip: (3) Crystal Bound- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (11) Spinning- $27.00/6.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (14) Forever And A Day- $126.00/26.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Crystal Bound, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Spinning, 0.25 units E/W Forever And A Day

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Going to have something on (6) Shaquero who I thought ran well in the Moir first up. He got a nice trail but had to go back to the inside and had Ballistic Lover half laying in on him into the fence late without much room. He was only beaten 2.2L by Wild Ruler, gets out to 1100m and if he can tuck in just behind them again he should be in the finish.

(4) September Run was probably a better run in the Moir, getting to the outside at the 200m and finishing well with not much between her and Shaquero. She is $3.10 here and hasn’t won since the Coolmore and despite running well away from Flemington, she’s not a horse you want to back as favourite away from the straight in my opinion.

(8) Dosh went out quickly and hit a brick wall very late first up. Don’t love that race but she’ll probably lead with 51kg and take a bit of catching.

(1) Savatoxl has the class and a very good first up record. His only miss was last prep but prior to that was undefeated fresh and of course went on to win a Goodwood last prep. His Ararat jumpout was very slick and given his target is a Manikato in two week’s time he’d have to be fairly screwed down.

Tip: (6) Shaquero- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Savatoxl- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Shaquero, 0.5 units WIN Savatoxl

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

(2) Zaaki should be winning again, and likely by a bigger margin this time. He was a bit tradesman like in the Underwood, but they didn’t go out all that hard and Willo was fairly kind to him. There looks better tempo here which should bring out the best horse and this should be a perfect hitout for the Cox Plate.

(5) Probabeel is a small query at a strong 2000m but she’s never seen the distance on a good track which we know she needs, so I think she’s definitely the most likely exacta horse again.

(3) Nonconformist could be value for the trifecta- I really liked his win in the Naturalism over this T/D and that was a strong race. They won’t want to bust him up for the Caulfield Cup next week but he should run well.

(1) Homesman for 4th.

 

Tip: (2) Zaaki- $1.26 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Backing two horses here. (4) Tailleur looks primed 3rd up coming down from Sydney. Her 3rd up record is very strong and both runs this prep have been good. Her run last start in the Sheraco from a long way back was good and she can settle much closer from a good gate.

(1) Brooklyn Hustle is the interesting runner. The market support in the Moir first up was quite astonishing, backed from $18 into $6.50 very late. She was a complete forgive there, running off the track and pulling up with a myriad of issues. 2nd up last prep she was very unlucky in the Newmarket. I like her drawn out, and at 1200m. Given she started $6.50 in a WFA group 1 last start and we’re getting $6.50 here, I have to be with her. 

(6) Chassis is flying and should be around the mark again.

Tip: (4) Tailleur- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Brooklyn Hustle- $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Tailleur, 0.75 units WIN Brooklyn Hustle

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

The day’s feature is the Caulfield Guineas and it’s a cracking race made even more interesting by the barrier draw. (1) Anamoe has drawn wide but I’m prepared to stick with him. I definitely think he’s the best horse in the race- he had a set back going into the prep but still beat them first up over 1200m, and I doubt he had the ideal platform to go into a very fast Golden Rose where he arguably wins on a fairer track. I think he’s got the most improvement coming into this and has always looked like a horse wanting 1600m. The draw isn’t ideal, but James Cummings’ comments have suggested they won’t be negative out of the gates, which I think is a good move. If he can get in with cover, even if it’s 3 wide, he’ll be very hard to beat.

(2) Artorius was huge in the Golden Rose after getting a mile out of his ground and having to navigate around a horse running off the track. He flew home for 4th and that was a run that profiled well for 1600m, but I have two queries with him here. Barrier 2 for mine isn’t a good draw- I don’t know if he has the early speed to hold his spot and best case I think he’s 3 back the fence, maybe worse, with a few roadblocks in front. The other query is the possibility of a more even tempo- all his best runs have been off very fast speeds, notably in the Blue Diamond and Golden Rose. We saw in the Exford Plate in an easier race where they went slow, he loomed into it and couldn’t finish off. I think Anamoe has a better turn of foot and if they don’t go crazy in front, which is a possibility, he might struggle to pick them up.

(6) Lightsaber looks the best of the Melbourne horses. The time of the Prelude wasn’t great, but I think he’s better suited out to 1600m and in a more genuinely run race where he can sit on speed and keep kicking.

(3) Tiger Of Malay ran well in the Golden Rose. No doubt Anamoe and Artorius were better runs, but he draws 1 here and probably lands leader’s back. Can win if the big guns get map issues, which is a real possibility.

Have to be with Anamoe here. My thinking is if he drew barrier 5, he’d be an even money chance. The draw isn’t ideal, but I prefer him drawn out than worrying about 100-1 shots falling back in his lap. If Artorius is held up from 2, I think Anamoe can sit 3 wide and still win.

Tip: (1) Anamoe- $2.70 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Anamoe

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

I’ve made (11) I’m Thunderstruck the best bet of the day. On weights and measures he’s a moral, but of course that doesn’t always mean everything. He was 7 weeks between runs in the Rupert Clarke and probably should’ve won, getting back to last from the outside gate before getting badly bumped at the top of the straight and losing all momentum before charging into 3rd. The market support for him there was incredible, halving in price and starting favourite. He stays on the minimum weight and with even luck from barrier 4 he should be winning. I think he’s got the early speed to hold a spot midfield or just worse rather than out the back.

(6) Dice Roll was very good in the Rupert Clarke and looks the danger here again. He meets I’m Thunderstruck 1.5kg worse at the weights but was closer to the speed last start and kept kicking. He draws 1 here and should be in front of the favourite again.

(2) Superstorm just beat Elephant in the Feehan and only meets him 1kg worse at the weights but is double his price here. If they go very hard in front, which I don’t think is a given, he’ll be steaming late.

(5) Lunar Fox could be the best roughie. He was no match for Elephant at Sandown last start when ridden on speed, but with a colder ride, and better in at the weights he could be the giant killer again. Yes he started $301 in the Australian Guineas and won, but he backed it up with a very solid 4th in the All Star Mile, and this looks the absolute set play here. He gets the blinkers on which the stable did for his guineas win, Prebble sticks and you’ll probably get 100s on betfair.

Tip: (11) I’m Thunderstruck- $2.65 at BoomBet

Value: (5) Lunar Fox- $51.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN I’m Thunderstruck, 0.25 units E/W Lunar Fox (Betfair Starting Price)

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 5:46pm (AEDT)

I’m siding with (5) Delphi at the prices here. I really like this stayer and hope he can get his way into the Cups with a win here. His run in the Naturalism was excellent in a fast race, just missing Nonconformist and being the only horse to break 12 seconds for his last 200m. Getting out to 2400m is ideal, there have been plenty of very good runs out of that race (Grand Promenade, Tralee Rose, Chapada) and he maps beautifully from barrier 5.

(7) Floating Artist is clearly the danger and is very progressive. His win last start at Sandown was dominant and he was very strong late and through the line. If Teo can get across and even potentially lead after the scratching of Fun Fact he’ll be hard to beat. Still no word if he races here or on Wednesday in the Coongy. If he’s not here, Delphi could be an absolute moral, and he’d probably be a moral in the Coongy.

Backing Delphi and if Floating Artist comes out I’ll have another unit on to make it 3.5.

Tip: (5) Delphi- $3.45 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Delphi