Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, October 9th

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 12:36pm (AEDT)

We kick off the day with the Highway, with a full field of 16 set to line up and a market which is $5 the field.

(3) Proven Class is a blowout chance here at $26/$7.50. Resumed on a heavy track at Goulburn which she isn’t suited to. She has a terrific second up record with a win and two 2nds from three starts. Two wins from three starts at the distance, back onto a firm track suits and with any luck from the wide gate, can run a cheeky race.

(1) Whatsin continues to run well and didn’t get any luck last start. Went close in a similar race two starts ago, Bowman back on today and draws well.

Tip: (3) Proven Class E/W $26/$7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Proven Class

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 1:11pm (AEDT)

The Highway is followed by the Midway which isn’t any easier.

(12) Akhtar will be popular here for Annabel Neasham and Tommy Berry, after beating subsequent midweek winner Dufresne last start. The decision to ride the colt quieter paid dividends so expect similar here from barrier 10.

(6) Noble Soldier hasn’t done much wrong to warrant being big odds here. Not much luck twos tarts ago in a similar race and then went to Hawkesbury and won last start. Needs a good ride more than anything.

(1) Catapult is hard to trust but his form might be a touch better than what it looks on paper. He hasn’t had much luck in his past four starts, struggling to get any clear running in each of them. He can be thrown in at big odds.

(10) Different Strokes is building a nice record and comes off a dominant win at Wyong. This is harder.

Tip: (12) Akhtar $7.00 Ladbrokes

Value: (6) Noble Soldier $17 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 1:46pm (AEDT)

(7) Solar Apex has made a faultless return to racing this prep, with back-to-back wins at Gosford to open his campaign. This is no doubt a step up in class but these Waller horses can just keep improving and JMac sticks with him.

(2) Herman Hesse comes up to Sydney after wins at Warracknabeal and Mornington. Draws ideally in barrier 1 and can lead or box seat from there. Loves good ground which is what he will get here and it’s a good chance for Laura Lafferty to notch up a metropolitan winner in NSW.

(3) Yiyi is yet to run a bad race this prep. Struck a terribly biased track two starts ago when 3^rd to Toomuchtobear but atoned for that with victory at Rosehill last start. Up in the weights now with 59.5kg and a slightly tricky draw in barrier 9, but she’ll be right around the mark come the finish.

Tip: (7) Solar Apex $4.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Solar Apex

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 2:21pm (AEDT)

I struggle to see (2) Coastwatch getting beat here and he’s my best bet of the day at Randwick. He won the G3 Ming Dynasty two starts ago before a very sound effort to run 3^rd in the Group 1 Golden Rose. He was favoured somewhat by the way the track was playing on Golden Rose day, but he still finished off well behind two very smart horses in In The Congo and Anamoe, in a race that was run at high pressure. The 1500m will be no issue for that reason, he draws well and JMac jumps back on. Just looks better than the rest of these.

(6) Cotehele might pose the biggest threat, coming off a dominant win first up in a BM64 at Goulburn, and that tells you what you need to know about Coastwatch’s opposition.

(4) Brigantine beat Super Effort two starts ago and then ran 2^nd in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Should go well.

Tip: (2) Coastwatch $2.05 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Coastwatch

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

I think (2) Paulele is the horse to beat here but I’m not desperate to go hard at the $2.30 on offer (shorter elsewhere). He was dominant first up and then bumped into a couple of smart ones in In The Congo and Home Affairs, and his run from off the speed behind Home Affairs in particular was very good. He might end up back there again though and there’s a couple of unknowns in this race so he’s about his right quote.

(6) King Of Sparta ran really well last start behind Home Affairs, in my opinion. I thought his effort to finish as close as he did was very good considering the pattern of the day, which favoured those on speed and on the rails. Prior to that he was good without luck and before that he broke the track record at Kembla.

(3) O’president resumes from a spell with just one trial under the belt but he showed some class as a juvenile and makes his own luck out front.

(1) Sword Of State had excuses first up when trapped wide throughout. Can improve sharply with the good draw today.

Tip: (2) Paulele $2.30 Bet365

Value: (6) King Of Sparta $9.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

(1) Amarelinha didn’t get much go her way first up when she copped a bump on jumping, settled last the fence and then had to chase in traffic up the straight. The form out of that race has been very strong with Private Eye and Aramayo running the quinella in the Epsom. JMac back on Amarelinha today, back on firm ground, looks suited.

(3) Kiku was a sneaky run first up at Rosehill on a day that was heavily biased to those on speed and on the rails. She settled worse than midfield and ran into traffic everywhere until the 150m mark, where she eventually got clear running and finished off well. She should have finished much closer to the winner and it’s worth noting she started $5.00 in that race. She won three of her four starts last prep and can give this a good shake.

(8) Grace And Harmony can also improve second up while (10) Outback Diva is the blowout at big odds, back onto a firm track with a good draw and frontrunning jockey Tim Clark booked.

Tip: (1) Amarelinha $4.40 TAB

Value: (10) Outback Diva $21 TAB

Saver: (3) Kiku $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Amarelinha, 0.5 units WIN Kiku, 0.25 units WIN Outback Diva

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Amish Boy just always seems to find a few too good for him but he looks to find a very good race here in the Silver Eagle. He gets a wide draw but James McDonald is a positive booking and he drops out of Group 1 company back to a set weights and penalties race against his own age group. Two starts ago he ran 2^nd to Masked Crusader, who won impressively last weekend. With any luck he goes very close.

(8) Count De Rupee was dominant resuming at Kembla. Obviously this is a much stiffer test but he’s progressive.

(1) Exoboom didn’t do much first up but he settled last and that was a bad day to be back off the speed. Should improve sharply second up back on firm ground with a low draw.

(10) Blondeau is flying and should have won last start and probably the start before that too. He’s flying this horse and can be very competitive at double figure odds.

(11) Equation is another that can improve sharply off the first up run, where he settled a long way back and was in an impossible position at the top of the straight given the pattern of the day.

Tip: (4) Amish Boy $7.50 Bet365

Value: (10) Blondeau $17 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Amish Boy, 0.5 units WIN Blondeau

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

Sticking with (1) Head Of State here who was the last-start winner of the Gloaming Stakes, where his professionalism just got him over the line ahead of (2) Profondo. They meet again here and while Profondo will no doubt improve with that experience from the Gloaming, I thought Head Of State should be favourite.

(5) French Emperor is worth including at big odds. I was keen on him in the Gloaming but he did absolutely nothing and finished second-last, beaten 8.75L. The blinkers come off today and it’s worth noting he started $5 in the Gloaming. We’re getting four times the price today so worth having a mental health bet at those odds.

(11) Never Been Kissed was the big odds winner of the Flight Stakes last weekend and backs up quickly into the Spring Champion here. Three of the last five Spring Champion’s have been won by fillies and this stable will have her ready to go again. Can win.

Tip: (1) Head Of State $3.90 Bet365

Value: (5) French Emperor $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Head Of State, 0.25 units WIN French Emperor

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

I thought the price about (8) Tricky Gal here was way off the mark. She looks a great each way bet at $23/$6. She has an outstanding first up record with three wins and a 2^nd from four starts. That 2^nd came first up last prep behind Tailleur, which is a good form reference. Has a good record at this distance and can go on all track conditions. Just needs a good ride from the wide gate.

(1) Sweet Deal is a Group 1 performer resuming in Group 3 company so despite the weight and the wide draw, she should be competitive.

(4) Madam Legend is flying but both win have been on wet tracks and this will be rock hard on Saturday. Her record on firm ground is nowhere near as good so I’d be opposing her.

(5) Minhaaj resumes from a spell and has her first start for John O’Shea with James McDonald booked to ride, which is a great lead. Has a good first up record and I’d expect a good run here.

(10) Great News never runs poorly and will be thereabouts at the finish.

Tip: (8) Tricky Gal $23/$6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Tricky Gal

Odds Last Updated: October 9, 2021, 6:06pm (AEDT)

(5) Kinloch has trialled up twice and gets the blinkers on first up for O’Shea and Bowman. Went close first up last prep before beating Sixgun over this distance second up. Expecting a big run fresh.

JMac keeps the ride on (3) On The Lead third up. Did a good job to finish as close as he did last start after sitting wide on the speed and should be right in the finish again.

(12) Marnix draws the inside and has had two recent trials in readiness for this. Hasn’t won since his debut at Geelong which is a concern.

Tip: (5) Kinloch $4.40 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Kinloch