Caulfield Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 16th

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(7) Ord does look well placed to break his maiden, but he’s becoming a bit hard to trust, and he’s into odds on now. He had every chance at Pakenham but couldn’t quite reel in one who had a perfect run. The step up to 1440m does look ideal, and he draws perfectly in barrier 4. I’d want at least $2.20+ to get involved, so wait and see closer to jump time.

 

(3) Bury Road is on debut for the Mick Price yard and Olly is booked to ride. The trial was okay, but Ord was beaten by a debutant from the same yard last start.

 

Tip: (7) Ord $1.90 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Don’t mind (7) Limpet here for a bit of value. He comes here first up after a winless three start winter campaign. His debut run behind So Let’s Toast was good, importantly on a good track. The two subsequent runs were solid on soft tracks, and being by a son of Deep Impact, I’d expect a firmer deck to suit.

 

(4) Real Gun is the horse to beat. I’m still reeling after he was run down at The Valley last start at $14, but he was given a 10/10 ride there to find the 1-1. He’s an obvious chance but I don’t want to take $2.25 about him this start.

 

Tip: (7) Limpet $10.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Limpet

 

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(5) Winsum looks hard to beat and should be justifying favouritism. It was only a 2L win last start, but he did it under hands and heels and could’ve won by space. 1200m is definitely going to suit, and he has run at Caulfield on debut behind Hanseatic as a 2yo which should home him in good stead. Looks one of the better bets on the day.

 

(9) Impecunious makes her Australian debut after a dominant 4L win during the winter in NZ. She won a jumpout nicely at Cranbourne but was beaten on debut (albeit over 800m) on a good track, whereas her win was on a heavy deck.

 

Tip: (5) Winsum $2.5 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Winsum

 

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

One of the toughest races of the day. (1) Chequerboard was beaten 5L but did run 2^nd to Arabian Hussey last start. By Fastnet Rock, I’d expect the 1600m to suit, but she’s got a big weight. She narrowly beat a few of these home last start, but there isn’t much between them.

 

(2) Sea Princess was one of those and should be suited by 1600m but does draw a bit awkwardly.

 

(7) Shezadandi is one that brings different form and could measure up. She’s been solid in two career runs and is definitely looking for further. By Dandino (a world class stayer), 1600m will be short of her best in time, but Willo takes the ride here and she’s not hopeless.

 

(8) Tarantello was desperately unlucky two back but had every chance Friday night at The Valley and was a bit weak late in my opinion. Funnily enough she’s also by Dandino, but I don’t want to back her off that effort.

 

Tip: (7) Shezadandi $7.5 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(9) Kurabui does look well placed to make it 2/2. A half-sister to Surprise Baby, she was very impressive on debut at Pakenham. She didn’t beat much, but she did it easily and scored by 2.5L, with another 4.75L back to 3^rd. The best part about her win was the last 200m where she really drew clear from the favourite, and 1600m will suit now. The $3.00 looks a fair price for a horse with far more upside than these.

 

(10) Mostly Sunny could be the danger. She jumped a bit awkwardly last start at The Valley but ran on well for 3^rd behind Ocean’s Thirteen. That’s strong form for a Wednesday race, and she normally races closer to the speed.

 

(2) Dance Ready next best.

 

Tip: (9) Kurabui $3.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Kurabui

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

The $8.00 about (7) Konkalikon looks a good bet. He won two starts back over 1600m, beating Mellors, who subsequently ran 2^nd to (6) Playoffs, who is $5.00 here. Konkalikon then stepped up to 1800m at Sandown and ran 3^rd to Tralee Rose and Influential Girl, which is the strongest form for this in my opinion. That was a strongly run race, and the set up looks ideal here- 4^th up, off 3 weeks, up to 2000m. 4^th up last prep, whilst he didn’t win, was Konkalikon’s best run of the prep in a bm78, racing wide without cover and running 2^nd with some handy horses in behind.

 

(2) Humble Pie was a strong winner two back at The Valley before getting a bit further back at Pakenham and running on well for 4^th behind Zachaz. He gets a negative jockey change with Melissa Julius taking the ride, but the 3kg claim obviously helps.

 

(4) Astraeus has to be respected. He got everything in his favour two back over 1600m but did bolt in and was solid on speed over the mile again at Pakenham last start. Not sure about a strong 2000m, especially as he’ll have (3) Lord Bouzeron keeping him company on speed.

 

Tip: (7) Konkalikon $8.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Konkalikon

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

No doubt that (6) Cabinho is the best horse in this race. He took a while to hit his straps last prep, but finally led all the way to break his maiden comfortably at Seymour. His run before a spell in the Silver Bowl Final at Flemington was excellent, coming from near last to run 5^th, beaten 2.65L by Walking Flying. A repeat of that run would see him closer to $2.00 than $5.00 here, but it’s dependent on fitness levels really. I’ll be waiting to see if Mick Price has anything to say (as he’s usually right) and watching the market late.

 

(3) Campese just got too far back last start in an on pace race but was good the two starts prior and can bounce back.

 

(4) Turbeau brings strong form this prep around the likes of Chief Altony. The run last start was good when unsuited behind Just Folk and Caffrey.

 

Cabinho on top, and if he’s firm in the market he’s definitely a play.

 

Tip: (6) Cabinho $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Cabinho

 

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Saved the best value until last, because I think (9) Tea Tales is over the odds here. She draws very wide which is never good at this T/D, but I liked the first up run at Warrnambool when running on from last to just miss Uptown Lola, who led all of the way. She was really starting to hit her straps at the end of last prep, culminating in a dominant 2.75L win at Flemington. As I write there’s still $31 around which is a big price.

 

(8) Maggie Miss isn’t hopeless either, coming down from Sydney. She’s run 2^nd at all three 2^nd up starts, the most recent coming behind Jay Jay D’ar and beating home Threeod.

 

(7) Brazen Song steps up in grade but is racing well, with the Fundraiser form stacking up nicely.

 

(2) Witchfulthinking is flying and makes her own luck on speed but will have plenty of company here.

 

(5) Quantum Mechanic is a good mare and pulled up with EIPH first up last prep before coming out and winning her next start. Barrier one could be a bit tricky, but she’s got the runs on the board.

 

Tea Tales will be the best result at the odds, but I do think we can get a result by backing Maggie Miss and Quantum Mechanic too.

 

Tip: (9) Tea Tales $31.00 TAB

Dangers: (8) Maggie Miss $9.50 TAB & (5) Quantum Mechanic $7.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Tea Tales, 0.5 units WIN Maggie Miss, 0.5 units WIN Quantum Mechanic