Caulfield Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 13th

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

(6) Lady Audrey on top in the opener. Jamie Kah booked on debut always piques my interest, and the jumpouts certainly indicate talent. She looks a fairly speedy filly, and barrier 4 should see her settle right on speed.

 

(9) Tiz My Bay has jumped out well and could be the value. The stable are flying and the jumpout was soft. I’d expect she goes back from the wide draw and should be running on well.

 

(1) Crazy Ladies has got the race experience, running 2^nd to Picarones on debut. I don’t think that’s the strongest 2yo form line, but the run was sound, and she should be better for that.

 

Tip: (6) Lady Audrey $4.85 Sportsbetting

Value: (9) Tiz My Bay $17.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Lady Audrey, 0.25 units WIN Tiz My Bay

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Tough race. (2) All Stardom is favourite, coming off a good run first up. He had to work to find the lead and wasn’t suited by the track pattern, with plenty of winners coming from off the speed out wide. He gets Kah on and should be able to find the front from barrier 2.

 

(5) South Parade has form around some handy horses from last prep. He was only 3.5L off Cherry Tortoni at Flemington over 1420m. The 1100m is perhaps a bit short but he’ll be hitting the line strongly.

 

(7) Medic was slow away and ran on strongly for 3^rd first up. The blinkers go on which looks to be a big tick, although barrier one could be a bit tricky.

 

Tip: (2) All Stardom $2.45 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN All Stardom

 

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

(7) Palace Whisper looks suited stepping up to 1200m. She was strong to the line over 1000m first up, where the leaders got an easy time of it. The winner of that race was only beaten 4L on Saturday at Flemington, with excuses. Lane replaces Kah which is no knock, and she can be handier from barrier 2.

 

(4) Just Malcolm ran 2^nd in the All Stardom race, so we’ll get a guide on that form. He’s third up now and should be right on speed and trying to pinch a break.

 

(6) Glitzy Girl is an interesting one. She started $5.50 in a strong maiden on debut but raced wide without cover and dropped out to be beaten nearly 7L by Chequerboard. That was on a heavy track, and I think she can improve on a drier track with natural improvement. Olly sticks with her off some solid jumpouts and I think she can be included.

 

(2) I’m Thunderstruck has jumped out well and should be competitive. I’d expect him to get over further ground in time.

 

Tip: (7) Palace Whisper $4.10 Sportsbetting

Danger: (6) Glitzy Girl $6.40 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Palace Whisper, 0.5 units WIN Glitzy Girl

 

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Plenty of speed here over the 1000m, but I’m with (3) Elderflower who has the fitness to outlast them all. She needed the run first up and ended up 3 and four wide without cover on speed, beaten 5.2L by Miss Albania, which is very strong form. She then ran against Miss Albania again and was beaten 2.6L over 1100m. I like her coming off that run back to the 1000m, where all 3 career wins have come. Her one run at this T/D was an enormous 3^rd in a very fast race in much stronger company. Campbell Rawiller sticks which is perfect, and I think she’s a great bet at $4.60.

 

(10) Frederick The Dane is first up, and his only win was on synthetic. The form around Muntaseera from his last run reads well but I can’t have him shorter than Elderflower.

 

With The Mobot coming out, I’m even keener on Elderflower, although some deductions will apply.

 

Tip: (3) Elderflower $4.60 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Elderflower

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Pretty low race over 1800m. (5) Evie Girl was given a beautiful ride last start at Mornington as favourite. The start prior over 1600m she split Make Mine Hennessey and Night Passage which is good form for this.

 

(8) Perennial looks the danger. She was well beaten but did run 2^nd to White Hibiscus last start at Sandown. There was good pace on which suited there and there isn’t a stack of speed here. She doesn’t have much early speed so will need a few things to go her way.

 

(10) High Done has 3L to make up on Evie Girl but goes Jarrod Fry to Jamie Kah, with a 2.5kg weight swing for good measure. There looks a real opportunity to go forward from the wide gate and Kah will know this, having ridden her on speed two starts ago. I could entertain something very small on her late the exchange.

 

Tip: (10) High Done $13.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25 units WIN High Done

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Open race for the girls. (14) Shojiki is lightly raced and could easily go to this level here. She was a good winner on debut at Morphettville before failing as favourite at start 2. The jumpouts have been good and she’s got more upside than anything in the field.

 

(6) Des Moines is consistent and brings the best form, having finished less than a length off Score and Need New Friends. She hasn’t won for a while which is the knock, but a repeat of last start makes her very competitive.

 

(13) Storming The Seas was okay behind Malicorne last start at The Valley and has to be respected.

 

(9) Zoujea is an interesting one. She started $201 first up for the new stable and easily outran the SP, splitting Evening Glory and Housay. She’d done nothing for 4 runs with the O’Brien camp, but her best form definitely puts her in this.

 

Tip: (14) Shojiki $7.10 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Shojiki

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Open race. (4) Smart Elissim probably brings the best form into the race, having finished 3^rd to Hidden Legend last start, and an unlucky 6^th, beaten 1.9L by Bandersnatch the start prior. The knock is that he’s only won 4 from 25, but this does look a nice race for him stepping up to 1200m.

 

(9) Charleise is a handy mare resuming. She’s got the class but 1200m is the worry. Her first up run last prep was a win over Hidden Legend and Fundraiser, which reads very well. That was over 1300m and she did get the run of the race there. She’s jumped out well and it wouldn’t shock to see her win.

(7) Dirty Deeds is perhaps better on a soft track but put in a very consistent prep during the winter.

 

(8) Zoushack was given a great ride last start and won well. He steps up in grade and whilst he’s racing well and an obvious chance, I thought he was short enough.

 

I would’ve been keen on Seven Castles due to the map, but it’s come out this morning, so I’m happy to leave this alone.

 

Tip: (4) Smart Elissim $5.5 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 14, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

The most interesting runner of the day in Heart Of Puissance has been scratched which is disappointing.

 

That leaves (4) King Magnus very hard to beat. He’s found his level and looks well placed back to bm70 grade, drawn perfectly in barrier 2. I thought his run at this T/D last start was very good, copping a stack of pressure for the lead but kicking strongly to be beaten 1.55L by Rule The World and Grinzinger Allee. He should get every chance to atone here in a race that lacks the depth of last start.

 

(12) Tycoon Bella was unlucky last start and is progressing nicely. She takes on the boys here but does get in with 56.5kg.

 

(10) Flandersrain brings some solid 3yo form into this first up run. She’s better over further but has won at the 1400m and can run a race fresh.

 

Tip: (4) King Magnus $3.30 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN King Magnus