Cox Plate Day Racing Tips: Saturday, October 24th

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Keen to see (2) Ancestry again here. He’s absolutely bolted in two starts this prep over 1200m and 1000m and looks set to justify the short quote again. He easily accounted for a number of his rivals in the Apache Cat Classic last start, absorbing pressure in front but booting clear to win by 3.3L eased down. He’s adept on wet tracks and should be winning. If you manage to get $2, he’s a max bet play, and even at around $1.85 I could be interested.

If it’s a very heavy deck (1) Jungle Edge obviously comes into play and does look the quinella horse.

(7) Free Of Debt looks short for mine first up. He has run 2^nd on a soft 7, splitting Super Seth and Dalasan, but I think he’s better on firm decks and his Gawler trial was awful, hard ridden and beaten 10L. He’s $1.80 to place which looks layable, so that could be an angle if interested.

If Ancestry gets out in the market, I’m happy to play but otherwise we’ll save some units for later.

Top Pick: (2) Ancestry – $1.65 at Bet365

Betting Strategy:  No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

A huge field of 2yos, most on debut. Two that have raced before come out of a good race won by Fake Love.

(4) Hardware Lane missed the start there and was very green, ducking back to the inside but running on okay to finish 9^th, just behind (8) Tatsuro. Both get significant jockey bookings, with Jmac taking the ride on Hardware Lane and Olly on Tatsuro.

Of the debutants I thought (6) River Views jumped out well and looked like a nice speedy 2yo for the Dabernig/Hayes camp. He draws wide here but that’s not a huge concern from the 1000m chute and at the odds he could run a race. Two Maher/Eustace newcomers do look to have some talent.

The inform Zahra takes the ride on (7) Son Of Mercury and Jamie Kah pilots (14) Sneaky Five. Both have serious claims here, but at the odds I’ll side with River Views.

Top Pick: (6) River Views – $15 at Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN River View

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Happy to side with (7) Bella Nipotina here. She was outclassed and had a hard run in the Moir at WFA but bounced back with a good 3^rd behind Swats That and Muntaseera last start when leading. She gapped 4^th by 2.75L there, and I like the map for her again.

She should either lead or sit outside fairly easily, which looks better than the scenario for (5) Portland Sky. He was only 1.5L off September Run (who narrowly beat Swats That) last start down the straight, but barrier 1 here looks a bit sticky with 3 back the fence looking a likely position in running. I’ve also got queries on him on a wet track, as he’s only seen synthetic or good surfaces, whereas Bella Nipotina has won on soft and run 2^nd to Prime Star on a heavy track.

(1) Valaquenta was awful down the straight behind Portland Sky last start but did beat him home the start before. Not sure what to make of him, perhaps he just didn’t handle the straight, but a soft track is a big query with him too.

(2) Free To Move won a fairly average race at this T/D last start. He’s not the worst but I don’t think he has the class of a couple of these. Taking on Portland Sky from the map and especially the prospect of soft ground. Bella Nipotina looks the bet.

Top Pick: (7) Bella Nipotina – $4.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Bella Nipotina

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Tricky race, with the market dominated by two fillies coming out of the Thousand Guineas.

(2) Ecumenical had a tough run but kept coming out wide to run 4^th, beating (1) Thermosphere home by 2.5L. Thermosphere did start half the price of Ecumenical there, draws much better here and loves wet ground, so there is a case to be made that she can turn the tables, but she’s had 5 runs this prep and that last run could be a sign she’s had enough for the prep.

One at odds that can run well outside of the favourites is (3) Miss Inbetween. She raced last Wednesday at Caulfield and led the field, eventually running 2^nd to Embolism. I don’t mind that form, and the 3^rd horse Confrontational came out and won the Geelong Classic the week after. She ran 2^nd to Annavisto (albeit beaten 3L) on a soft 7 first up, so I don’t think wet ground will pose much of an issue, and she maps beautifully from barrier 4. With the two favourites set to dominate the market, you should continue to see a big price about Miss Inbetween and on a tough day for real roughies, I thought she was a touch of value.

Top Pick: (3) Miss Inbetween – $13 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Miss Inbetween

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

If (10) Paradee had drawn a gate here I’d be chips in, but I still think she’s the horse to beat. She was 7 weeks between runs last start and the market was firmly suggesting she wasn’t there to win, but I thought she stuck on very well, beaten less than a length. Her first up run over 1400m was huge, sitting 3 wide no cover and going down by 0.3L with 59kg.

With that run under her belt, and with a very handy 5kg weight swing on the favourite/winner of that race (3) Sovereign Award I’m pretty keen she turns the tables. Sovereign Award is flying and can’t be underestimated. She’s 3/4 at the T/D and maps for a nice run on speed again. Sovereign Award has the better soft track stats although I think Paradee should be fine, having run a close up 3^rd on a soft 7 behind Selica. Her heavy track run in the Adrian Knox was inconclusive when wide without cover behind Colette.

If we’re somehow on a good surface (2) Greysful Glamour is a huge chance, but she just doesn’t go on wet ground and can’t win here unless it’s a good 4.

 Top Pick: (10) Paradee – $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Paradee

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Very keen on (6) Young Werther here. A combination of greenness and an average steer got him beat last start, but once clear and balanced he motored home in the fastest last 200m of the race to just miss. He started $2.60 on that occasion and with the added race experience at just start number 3, he’s going to be very hard to beat. I can’t see wet ground being an issue whatsoever for this son of Tavistock, and I think he’ll be a clear favourite for the Derby after the race.

Albarado ran 3^rd there and came out and won a handy Derby lead up last week, and the winner (1) Khoekhoe was the beneficiary of a beautiful ride by Kersley. With even luck I’m very confident Young Werther turns the tables.

4^th in that race was (7) Johnny Get Angry who came from a long way back and kept making ground. He’ll appreciate 2040m and is a good place hope.

Not sure what to make of (3) Cherry Tortoni who was very solid in betting in the Spring Champion and didn’t really finish off. Maybe he’s better on a soft track and back to Melbourne, but I think you can risk him coming off that run. He does have the track experience though whereas Young Werther is perhaps better suited at Flemington. Either way I think talent gets him home here and despite the early backing by punters (me included) I think he’s the best of the day.

Top Pick: (6) Young Werther – $2.30 at TAB (BEST BET)

Danger: (7) Johnny Get Angry – $23 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Young Werther, 0.5 units WIN Johnny Get Angry

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Gee this is a tough race. With the prospect of a soft track I’m happy to bin (8) Chief Ironside. I think he’s going really well and did win this race last year, but he just doesn’t go on wet tracks and anything worse than a soft 5 is going to really test him.

Most of (6) Age Of Chivalry’s form is on good tracks and I do think he’s better on firm surfaces. He’s not hopeless on soft but a testing 1600m perhaps isn’t his go.

Not sure what to do with (2) Kings Will Dream who drops back from the Turnbull. He was just fair there but was a forgive in the Makybe Diva when hampered by Gatting, and his fresh run in the Lawrence was very good over 1400m. Waller loves a 2000-1600m drop, and a wet track will be no issue, as he finished alongside Melody Belle in a Doncaster on heavy ground. That was off a similar scenario, dropping from a disappointing run in an Australian Cup.

Rodd on probably isn’t ideal, especially as Jmac is on the other Waller horse (4) Olmedo. He’s a very interesting runner, having only had the one start in Australia, which was a poor run in an Ajax behind Imaging on wet ground when fading late to be well beaten. His overseas form was miles better than this- his 4^th to Circus Maximus in France is world class 1600m form. He has handled soft ground overseas so I’m not sure what to do with him here, first up at 1600m off two fairly quiet trials. Any market support for Olmedo and he’ll run very well.

The other chance is (1) Homesman who comes here fresh with no public jumpouts. His fresh record is very good, with a dominant win at this T/D in a Feehan first up this time last year. He ran a narrow 2^nd in a Caulfield Cup on a soft 6, but I don’t think he wants it any wetter than that. His first up run last prep was a 7^th in a Chipping Norton, beaten 2.5L by Te Akau Shark and Verry Elleegant.

I’m going to take on Olmedo at this stage with so many unknowns despite the booking of Jmac terrifying me. It looks a set play for Kings Will Dream who has run very well off a similar set up and is suited at the weights, and I could save on Homesman who is very good fresh.

Top Pick: (2) Kings Will Dream – $6.10 at Sportsbetting

Saver: (1) Homesman – $4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Kings Will Dream, 0.5 unit WIN Homesman

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

He’s become an absolute tease, but this race looks ideal for (4) Shared Ambition to get his first win of the preparation. The talent is clearly there, but he just hasn’t had the races run to suit. Last start in the Bart Cummings he had to make a long, sustained run around the outside of the field into the strong wind, whereas the winner Persan and 2^nd placed (7) Sound had much better runs nearer the inside.

Shared Ambition just peaked on his run late, which is evident in the sectionals. He ran the fastest last 1200m of the race, the 3^rd fastest last 800m, and the 7^th fastest last 400m. Despite that he stuck on very well and still came home in the 5^th fastest last 200m of the race. Also in that race was Steel Prince, who faced the breeze and was truck loaded in betting to win the Geelong Cup. With the 2500m run under his belt and a more economical run from barrier 8, Shared Ambition looks perfectly primed to record his first win of the prep with Jmac reuniting with the horse. Sound is obviously a chance and gets Zahra on board from barrier 2.

The improver on wet ground will be (12) Polly Grey. She ran well in the Cranbourne Cup and with three 2000m races under her belt she should be fit enough to tackle the 2500m here, a distance she hasn’t seen before.

Top Pick: (4) Shared Ambition – $4 at Sportsbet

Danger: (12) Polly Grey – $13 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 3.5 units WIN Shared Ambition, 0.5 units WIN Polly Grey

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The Cox Plate is one of the most-highly anticipated races of the year and Tim Geers has gone the distance with his runner-by-runner preview for the big race. Check out his preview and Cox Plate tips below:

2020 Cox Plate Runner-by-Runner Preview & Betting Tips

Odds Last Updated: October 25, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Current favourite Written Beauty will be racing Friday night, so the market is going to change drastically come scratching time. With her out, I’m pretty keen on (8) La Mexicana. If this track is very wet and worn out after 17 races in two days, she’ll be heavily advantaged. She won on debut on a heavy 8 and bolted in by over 4L last start at Cranbourne on a soft 7, beating a decent bm64 field. With the speedster coming out, I think La Mexicana can sit outside the lead fairly comfortably and from there she’ll be hard to beat.

She beat (3) Maha home down the straight and had the SP that day, with that filly coming out and running 2^nd to September Run, which is the best 3yo filly we have at the moment.

(1) Minhaaj has finished close up to September Run in both starts this prep and has bolted in a soft 6, but since her debut all her form is down the straight which is a slight knock. She is the danger for mine, but I think La Mexicana will be better suited here.

(4) Highly Discreet can improve off last start behind Swats That after over racing badly, but barrier 1 is a big knock. Happy to be with La Mexicana, who should come into around $4 after deductions.

Tip: (8) La Mexicana – $5 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN La Mexicana