Racing Tips

Canberra Racing Tips: Friday, October 23rd

It’s Waterland Day at Thoroughbred Park in Canberra with an eight race card. Local resident The Horse has taken a look at several of the races to find your best bets—and a value runner paying $51.

by
The Horse
22 October 2020

He’s analysed Race 1, Race 2, Race 3, Race 6 and Race 7.

Race 1

Dz Landscape/Construction-Bm60 (2000m)
1:18pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Dz Landscape/Construction-Bm60 (2000m) 1:18pm (AEDT)
1. Eaglehawk (6) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (60kg) T: L T Hodgson	5	4.8	5.1	5
2. Mohahna (1) J: Brendan Ward (60kg) T: N J Olive	9.5	9.5	8.7	8.5
3. Clever Missile (5) J: Ms Winona Costin (59.5kg) T: Anthony Warren	2.8	2.8	2.7	2.8
4. Little Arnie (9) J: Michael Travers (59.5kg) T: Mitch Newman	11	11	12.2	11
5. Chicansalade (4) J: Ms Alysha Collett (58kg) T: Ms G Markwell	7	7	6.9	7.5
6. Axion (2) J: Mathew Cahill (57.5kg) T: G G Kirkup	23	26	26.5	26
7. Dragon's Shadow (8) J: Blaike Mcdougall (56.5kg) T: Ms K Outtrim	19	18	17.6	19
8. Hallo Poppet (3) J: Tom Sherry (56.5kg) T: Todd Smart
9. Stratum's Rose (7) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (56kg) T: R Weston & J Nisbet	5.5	5.5	4.7	5

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The day kicks off with a 2000 metre bm64 with a number of experienced runners. None of which have really been performing consistently in this grade or higher, which makes it terribly hard to map overall. (3) Clever Missile won pretty impressively two appearances ago, at this track and distance. That performance is good enough to win today. He dropped back to a 1640 metre race last start, which really was an odd choice, so potentially a complete forgive.

(1) Eaglehawk has been racing okay but seems to find one or two better. He has stepped up in distance the race prior but didn’t improve dramatically—unsure whether there is any improvement left, but can still be in the mix. While (9) Stratum’s Rose has strung together two second places, she makes the step in distance here (only twice in thirty runs taking on the 2000 metres overall). So confidence is not high.

Tip: (3) Clever Missile $3.35 Sportsbetting

Race 2

Huon Contractors Pty Ltd-Bm65 (1400m)
1:53pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Huon Contractors Pty Ltd-Bm65 (1400m) 1:53pm (AEDT)
1. Pauldron (7) J: Nick Heywood (60.5kg) T: W A Hudd	12	14	12.8	14
2. Zelago (9) J: Lee Magorrian (60kg) T: B Joseph & P & M Jones
3. American Salute (1) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: Matthew Smith	7.5	7.5	7	8
4. Austreet (6) J: Shaun Guymer (59kg) T: J M Austin	12	12	13.2	12
5. Hard Reality (8) J: Rory Hutchings (59kg) T: Peter Robl	2.8	2.9	2.6	2.7
6. Imitation Game (3) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (59kg) T: Doug Gorrel	17	19	20.5	19
7. Shenandoah (4) J: Blaike Mcdougall (58.5kg) T: K R Dryden	2.35	2.3	2.25	2.3
8. Dip Me Lid (10) J: Jay Ford (57kg) T: K R Dryden	31	34	31	34
9. Zaromatic (5) J: Mathew Cahill (56kg) T: G P Vella
10. Supreme Lad (2) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (55kg) T: Ms K Kulic	41	51	53	41

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Keen to take on the favourite here (7) Shenandoah who previously raced at Rosehill (running 12th in a field of 15 behind Scarleo). Form prior to that run was pretty good, including a victory at this track in a bm60.

The one who has impressed is (5) Hard Reality after two wins in his last three starts, albeit in easier company. Trained by former Jockey Peter Robl, she has a good record at this distance. Technically takes a small step down in grade here, but the competition does look a touch tougher.

If ready, (4) Austreet could get the win at good odds, so might be worth a penny. Either way, happy to take the price on offer for Hard Reality.

Tip: (5) Hard Reality $3.00 Palmerbet

Race 3

Valley Landscapes Mdn Plate (1400m)
2:28pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Valley Landscapes Mdn Plate (1400m) 2:28pm (AEDT)
1. Clem Fandango (13) J: Nick Heywood (59kg) T: Matthew Dale	31	34	29.5	34
2. Gambler's Quest (8) J: Jay Ford (59kg) T: K R Dryden	7.5	7.5	7	8
3. Underthespotlight (10) J: Ms Alysha Collett (59kg) T: Todd Smart	31	31	28.5	31
4. Diamond Affair (11) J: Michael Travers (57kg) T: D J Rolfe	81	101	121	101
5. La Reconquista (9) J: Robbie Dolan (57kg) T: J A O'shea	3.8	3.8	3.55	3.9
6. Let's Runaway (5) J: Aaron Sweeney (57kg) T: Anthony Warren	101	151	141	126
7. Remember Me (2) J: Chad Lever (57kg) T: Tash Burleigh	151	151	221	151
8. Wandonna (6) J: Blaike Mcdougall (57kg) T: K R Dryden	2.6	2.5	2.65	2.4
9. Windlass (1) J: Jeff Penza (57kg) T: L T Hodgson	126	201	191	151
10. Grazie (12) J: Tom Sherry (56.5kg) T: G Portelli	6.5	6.5	6	6
11. Wingman (4) J: Michael Heagney (56.5kg) T: J M Cleary	201	201	381	151
12. Lovely Spirit (7) J: Ms Jess Taylor (55kg) T: J G Sargent	81	151	91	151
13. Luftwaffe (3) J: Shaun Guymer (55kg) T: Richard Litt	7.5	6.5	7.6	7.5

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Here’s a race where an upset looks on the cards. Favourite (8) Wandonna is chasing its maiden win after 14 starts and seven places. It’s a pretty complicated race to feel confident in, as like many maidens, with a few runners coming from different form lines.

Former French galloper (5) La Reconquista has not shown much since coming to Australia, both in trials and her first race.

(3) Underthespotlight seems to be always around the mark, and is progressing to the 1400 metres for the first time. With three places from six starts, the odds of $18 look like a pretty tempting each-way option. The times he has been posting at the shorter trips signify that he should be competitive in this race.

However there is one here that performed well at Queanbeyan over the same distance—for which you can be getting $51. (4) Diamond Affair took off mid-race and circled a couple of the lead runners, doing some pretty hard work three-wide, and still had the ability to close on the eventual winner. It was a good run, and while she admittedly meets better opposition in this maiden, the odds look overs. So this humble Horse will be taking it each-way.

Tip: (4) Diamond Affair $51 E/W Unibet

Also backing: (3) Underthespotlight $18 Bet365

Race 4

Tr Civils (C1) (2000m)
3:03pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Tr Civils (C1) (2000m) 3:03pm (AEDT)
1. Bouddi (3) J: Nick Heywood (59kg) T: K P Weir	31	34	43	34
2. Gunaluva (10) J: Koby Jennings (59kg) T: J G Sargent	3.9	3.8	3.5	3.7
3. Lord Tropicana (6) J: Tom Sherry (59kg) T: G Portelli	1.75	1.8	1.72	1.8
4. Oliver Skoona (5) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (59kg) T: J M Cleary	34	34	43	34
5. Pont De Cirou (8) J: Brock Ryan (59kg) T: N E Layt	71	101	101	101
6. Sir Winzalot (12) J: Ms Amy Mclucas (59kg) T: S W Coady
7. Princess Kalli (1) J: Ms Winona Costin (57kg) T: P J Korn	51	61	63	51
8. Bannahagh Son (4) J: Chad Lever (56.5kg) T: G W Murray	101	101	101	151
9. Jophiel (11) J: Mathew Cahill (56.5kg) T: G G Kirkup	10	11	9	9.5
10. Sir Gunsen (9) J: Blake Spriggs (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith	14	14	12.8	13
11. Tactical Ploy (2) J: Aaron Sweeney (56.5kg) T: Steven Cummins	51	61	63	61
12. Hamilton Place (13) J: Jay Ford (55kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	16	18	15.4	17
13. Pheidippides (7) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (55kg) T: Doug Gorrel	91	151	151	151

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 5

Waterland Pty Ltd Mdn Hcp (1200m)
3:38pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Waterland Pty Ltd Mdn Hcp (1200m) 3:38pm (AEDT)
1. Rebel Bro (10) J: Scott Pollard (60kg) T: Matthew Smith	3.3	3.5	3.2	3.4
2. Budderoo Blitz (1) J: Brock Ryan (58kg) T: Joseph Ible	3.5	3.7	3.4	3.6
3. One Man Band (11) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (56kg) T: Matthew Dale	14	13	12.8	13
4. Jac The Great (7) J: Robbie Dolan (55.5kg) T: Matthew Dale	10	9.5	8.8	9.5
5. Currawar (6) J: Jeff Penza (55kg) T: M C Lynch	23	26	23.5	26
6. Elani Rose (3) J: James Innes Jnr (55kg) T: Mitch Newman	8	8	8.6	8
7. Feeling Friskee (16) J: Unknown (55kg) T: N J Osborne
8. Fleetingly (18) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
9. Gracious Knight (4) J: Ms Amy Mclucas (55kg) T: E & L Longmire	201	151	361	151
10. Iz A Gem (2) J: Ms Nyssa Burrells (55kg) T: J W Van Duren	126	151	191	151
11. Kermatin (17) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: K R Dryden	9	9.5	8.8	9.5
12. Millime (8) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (55kg) T: Scott Collings	61	81	83	81
13. She Can Talk (13) J: Tom Sherry (55kg) T: G Portelli	13	12	11	12
14. Silica Sand (14) J: Mathew Cahill (55kg) T: F S Cleary	31	34	41	26
15. Old Man Emu (15) J: Ms Winona Costin (55.5kg) T: N J Osborne	46	34	53	51
16. Bayness (5) J: Ms Robyn Freeman-Key (55kg) T: T Sergi	91	151	131	126
17. Jolie Colleen (9) J: Unknown (55kg) T: John L Morrison
18. Gambler's Quest (12) J: Jay Ford (55kg) T: K R Dryden

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 6

Tab Federal (Bm70) (1600m)
4:13pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Tab Federal (Bm70) (1600m) 4:13pm (AEDT)
1. Gunga Din (7) J: Ms Madison Waters (64.5kg) T: K R Dryden	6	5.5	6.1	5
2. Express Courier (3) J: Blaike Mcdougall (62.5kg) T: K R Dryden	3.2	2.9	3	3.1
3. Black Wand (1) J: Adrian Layt (60.5kg) T: Kurt Goldman
4. Royal Thunder (8) J: Bobby El-Issa (60kg) T: Matthew Dale	3.8	3.7	3.55	3.8
5. Balonne (6) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (59.5kg) T: K R Dryden	10	11	11.2	10
6. Clergyman (5) J: Lee Magorrian (58kg) T: Ms L Davies	6	5	6.1	5.5
7. Fox Beat (4) J: Koby Jennings (58kg) T: Luke Pepper	8.5	10	8.4	9.5
8. Trying (2) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (55kg) T: N F Gardner	26	41	27	31

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

We find what is probably the best bet of the day running in this bm70 over 1600 metres. (3) Express Courier is one of two Keith Dryden runners in the race, both with genuine chances. His lead jockey Blaike McDougall takes the steer of Express Courier while apprentice Madison Waters gets the ride of (1) Gunga Din—happy to take that as a lead.

Luke Pepper has (7) Fox Beat going around and his runners are always in the mix.

Express Courier has raced twice in this grade for two wins, has five wins overall from 16 starts, and three from nine at this track. The big question is whether he prefers the softer going, whereas the stable mate clearly performs bets on the firmer tracks. Either way, based on performances leading into this match-up, he goes on top.

Tip: (2) Express Courier $2.50 Bluebet

Race 7

Peet Limited Hcp (C1) (1200m)
4:48pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Peet Limited Hcp (C1) (1200m) 4:48pm (AEDT)
1. Azoustic (1) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (59kg) T: John Bateman	10	10	10	10
2. Vendome (13) J: Rory Hutchings (59kg) T: Edward Cummings	15	15	13.6	15
3. Cavalier Charles (14) J: Nick Heywood (58kg) T: Matthew Dale	4.8	4.8	4.25	4.2
4. Francisco Pizaro (4) J: Blaike Mcdougall (57.5kg) T: Joseph Ible	5.5	5.5	5	5.5
5. Add On (9) J: Aaron Sweeney (56.5kg) T: Andrew Sheahan	35	51	43	41
6. Deterge (8) J: Michael Travers (56.5kg) T: T Sergi	7.5	7	7.6	8
7. Exotic Deel (7) J: Jeff Penza (56kg) T: N J Olive	2.8	2.7	2.75	2.7
8. Fifi Girl (5) J: Michael Heagney (55kg) T: Fiona Schneiders	101	151	161	151
9. Buddabadah (6) J: Tyler Schiller (55kg) T: A L Mcrae	20	21	25	21
10. Uno Tops (10) J: Ms Winona Costin (55kg) T: P J Korn	61	81	79	71
11. Alla Capella (2) J: Ms Amy Mclucas (55kg) T: E & L Longmire	101	151	141	151
12. Roy John (11) J: Ms Nyssa Burrells (55kg) T: John L Morrison	151	151	201	151
13. Opposite (3) J: Mathew Cahill (55kg) T: D J Rolfe	81	71	73	101
14. Seawatch (12) J: Brendan Ward (55kg) T: B W Draper

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Matthew Dale is arguably the form trainer based in Canberra and he saddles up the progressive
(3) Cavalier Charles here. Second favourite in the market, probably due to the better gate draw of his main competition (7) Exotic Deal, he is yet to win in Canberra as he bagged his maiden in Wagga last prep. He does carry an extra two kegs compared to Exotic Deal, but that’s really elementary. He has the speed to come across from the wider gate and sit alongside the leader. If he drops one back, then he’ll be tracking his main rival into the straight.

The one at odds could be (6) Deterge, but he simply is not a winner. So I can’t see him, or any of the others, upsetting the main two in the market.

Tip: (3) Cavalier Charles $3.20 Bet365

Race 8

Biajag Construction Hcp (1200m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Biajag Construction Hcp (1200m) 5:25pm (AEDT)
1. Stephan (4) J: Rory Hutchings (63.5kg) T: G P Vella	15	17	13.8	15
2. Bombdiggity (7) J: Nick Heywood (59.5kg) T: Scott Collings	8	8	8.6	7.5
3. Demonstrate (1) J: Mathew Cahill (59kg) T: G G Kirkup	11	11	10	11
4. Howlowcanyougo (10) J: Chad Lever (59kg) T: A D Bourke	9.5	9	9.6	9
5. Cash Crisis (8) J: Ms Winona Costin (58kg) T: R T Stubbs	26	34	30	26
6. Who's Knocking (2) J: Richard Bensley (58kg) T: T J Mcilrick	15	16	15.2	17
7. Eve's Miss (14) J: Jay Ford (55.5kg) T: K R Dryden	10	10	9.4	11
8. Perfect Pitch (13) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55kg) T: K R Dryden
9. Bellegano (6) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: G Backhouse	8.5	9	8.2	9
10. Contaminated (16) J: Brendan Ward (55kg) T: N J Olive	21	31	21	23
11. Kanerupt (5) J: Aaron Sweeney (55kg) T: G P Vella	12	14	10.4	11
12. Exaggerate (11) J: Ms Kayla Nisbet (55kg) T: Doug Gorrel	23	21	23	26
13. Akeed (3) J: Jeff Penza (55kg) T: Jamie Stewart	10	9	9	10
14. Wichita Warrior (9) J: Tyler Schiller (55kg) T: K R Dryden	5	4.8	5.6	5
15. Tessera (12) J: Tom Sherry (55kg) T: Richard Litt
16. Concrete (15) J: Ms Jess Taylor (55kg) T: J M Cleary	31	34	28	34

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 9

Territory Horticulture (Bm60) (1000m)
6:05pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Territory Horticulture (Bm60) (1000m) 6:05pm (AEDT)
1. Major Time (1) J: Richard Bensley (62.5kg) T: G P Vella	4.6	4.6	4.85	4.8
2. Equaspecial (6) J: Unknown (62kg) T: Brooke Somers
3. Cattledog Cod (15) J: Ms Megan Creed (61.5kg) T: K P Weir
4. Shores Of Avalon (3) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (61.5kg) T: K R Dryden	3.1	2.9	2.75	2.6
5. Charm Offensive (13) J: Ms Alysha Collett (60.5kg) T: Ms G Markwell
6. Carruthers (14) J: Brendan Ward (60kg) T: N F Gardner	21	20	19.6	23
7. Deviate (7) J: Ms Amy Mclucas (60kg) T: Anthony Warren	15	17	17.2	17
8. Flight Commander (4) J: Jeff Penza (58.5kg) T: N J Olive	7.5	7.5	7.3	8
9. Grand Exit (10) J: Shaun Guymer (57.5kg) T: M D Kelley	46	61	61	61
10. Mouse Almighty (12) J: Nick Heywood (57.5kg) T: G Dimitropoulos
11. Social Smile (2) J: Mathew Cahill (57kg) T: F S Cleary	13	14	13.2	13
12. Byblos Boy (9) J: Aaron Sweeney (56kg) T: P J Korn	31	34	35	34
13. Fantasy Belle (11) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: Tash Burleigh	5	5	4.65	5
14. Enigami (5) J: Ms Winona Costin (55kg) T: T & P Vigouroux	61	81	93	71
15. Excitable (8) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Ms K Kulic	18	19	17.4	19

Odds Last Updated: October 24, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.