Racing Tips

Cranbourne Racing Tips: Friday, November 6th

Friday night racing shifts to Cranbourne this week as we prepare for another big day of racing at Flemington on Saturday. The Horse is keen to bet in four of tonight’s races!

by
The Horse
6 November 2020

Friday night racing shifts to Cranbourne this week as we prepare for another big day of racing at Flemington on Saturday.

The Horse is keen to bet in four of tonight’s races – Race 1, Race 3, Race 6 and Race 8. He’s labelled one of them the best bet anywhere today.

Find his analysis below.

Race 1

Ctc Restaurant At Home Mdn (1200m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Ctc Restaurant At Home Mdn (1200m) 5:30pm (AEDT)
1. Assemblywomen (9) J: Joe Bowditch (57kg) T: Chris Calthorpe	61	71	93	61
2. Benefactress (5) J: Unknown (57kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	31	41	28	34
3. Bond Girl (8) J: Craig Newitt (57kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	31	61	36	51
4. Chawinda (3) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: M D Moroney	5.5	5.5	5.1	5.5
5. Jeehaan (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.7
6. Paparazzi Queen (2) J: Michael Poy (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	3.9	3.8	3.55	3.4
7. Pixset (4) J: Jake Noonan (57kg) T: A W Noonan	16	17	14.8	17
8. Semilla (1) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: J C Griffiths	11	13	12.2	12
9. Tarantello (7) J: Rhys Mcleod (57kg) T: Ms C Alderson	8	8.5	7.4	8

Odds Last Updated: November 7, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The first race at the Cranbourne night meeting is a maiden over 1200 metres. There are two clear stand-outs in the market (5) Jeehaan & (6) Paparazzi Queen. Jeehaan has placed twice in the three races. Her second to Sahara Song looks like pretty solid form. The Exosphere filly gets the blinkers on for the first time showing the stable’s intention to sharpen her up – and demonstrates that they feel there is improvement to come (so they are tweaking with the set-up).

Paparazzi Queen was our top selection prior to not running. We liked the look of the Press Statement filly after her form behind the likes of Ringfort – who since won again at generous odds. She has placed on Soft going which may be a factor on race day. Like the favourite Jeehaan, she gets the blinkers on for the first time. Her form looks a touch stronger however, and at the better price, she goes on top.

Outside of the top two the new starter (4) Chawinda comes in after a solid trial. Can surprise and may be worth a play in the exotics.

Tip: (6) Paparazzi Queen $2.60 Sportsbet

Same race multi: Jeehaan (top 3), Paparazzi Queen (top 3) & Chawinda (top 4)

Race 2

Tac Be Races Ready Mdn Plate (1500m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Tac Be Races Ready Mdn Plate (1500m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Evie Girl (13) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M M Laurie	4.2	4.6	4.1	4.2
2. Likiliku (4) J: Arron Lynch (58kg) T: E V Musgrove	21	21	21.5	21
3. Love The Look (8) J: Craig Newitt (58kg) T: Ms W Kelly	14	16	13	12
4. Ninth Avenue (12) J: Ben Allen (58kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	7.5	8	7.4	8
5. Seneca Falls (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: M C Kent
6. Deal Flow (10) J: Jordan Childs (56.5kg) T: G M Begg	7	7	6.1	6.5
7. Eloped (1) J: Michael Walker (56.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	9	9	7.9	10
8. Flying Mascot (15) J: Michael Poy (56.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	4.2	4.6	4	4.6
9. Narrabri Coco (5) J: Campbell Rawiller (56.5kg) T: Keith Rawiller	61	91	97	71
10. Peligro (2) J: Joe Bowditch (56.5kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell	61	91	85	101
11. Rose Dior (9) J: Jason Maskiell (56.5kg) T: Gavin Bedggood	19	20	23.5	23
12. Vida Rose (11) J: Luke Nolen (56.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	14	14	12	12
13. The Alienator (3) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Chris Calthorpe
14. Pure Decision (7) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Saab Hasan
15. New Belle (14) J: Ms Sally Wynne (58kg) T: Ms D Wynne	16	17	18.2	16

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Afc-Peter & Lavella Darose Mdn (2060m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Afc-Peter & Lavella Darose Mdn (2060m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Disco Connolly (11) J: Ms Lucinda Boyd (59.5kg) T: Steven Pateman
2. Grand Quill (5) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	41	51	53	41
3. Handsome Fighter (10) J: Brian Higgins (59.5kg) T: Shawn Mathrick	27	31	32	31
4. Prosecutor (8) J: Noel Callow (59.5kg) T: Shea Eden	5.5	6	5.1	5.5
5. Wellsford (6) J: Rhys Mcleod (59.5kg) T: Jarrod Robinson	4.2	4.2	4.15	4.4
6. Whitchurch (7) J: Campbell Rawiller (59.5kg) T: Jarrod Robinson	61	81	83	71
7. Charging Fire (9) J: Joe Bowditch (58kg) T: Byron Cozamanis	13	13	13.2	11
8. Exalted Crown (2) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	3.1	3.4	3.1	3.3
9. Mr Joobs (3) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: P Stokes	9.5	10	8.4	9.5
10. Casino Princess (1) J: Michael Walker (57.5kg) T: Brett Scott	67	71	97	61
11. If You Leave (4) J: Neil Farley (57.5kg) T: Archie Alexander	5.5	5.5	4.8	5
12. Chomeur (12) J: Liam Riordan (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Similar to the first race there are two main players in the market (4) Prosecutor & (8) Exalted Crown. Prosecutor was another one of our on-top selections recently before being scratched. Six places in nine starts overall, he has been a money-muncher. Unfortunately he is at risk of finding one better again today. So at the likely risk he will prove us wrong – we are jumping off today.

Exalted Crown comes from the quality Price & Kent stable – and they don’t often have maidens hanging around for too long. He has been improving each race and looks to have more improvement here. He went close to winning his maiden last start and has proven ability on all surfaces. The two main chances are likely to lead. It’ll come down to the final test down the straight. If Callow drops Prosecutor in behind Exalted Crown we can expect Childs to slow down the pace and look to try to create a box for his danger.

Tip: (8) Exalted Crown $3.00 Sportsbet

Race 4

Frankston Sand Soil (Bm64) (2060m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Frankston Sand Soil (Bm64) (2060m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Mitrust (9) J: Jason Benbow (61.5kg) T: Richard Laming	6	6	5.6	6.5
2. Zouy's Comet (5) J: Jason Maskiell (61.5kg) T: Shawn Mathrick	6.5	7.5	6.5	7
3. Hazard Ahead (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60.5kg) T: D P Blackshaw	15	16	17.2	14
4. Sleepless (6) J: Neil Farley (60kg) T: Archie Alexander	3.5	3.3	3.65	3.1
5. Chaska (8) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6. Latin Beat (2) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: Saab Hasan
7. Mighty Oasis (7) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	10	12	10.8	12
8. Warrior Woman (3) J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg) T: P Stokes	5	5.5	5.6	5
9. Just A Joke (4) J: Michael Walker (57kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	4.8	4.8	4.45	4.8

Odds Last Updated: November 7, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 5

Obrien Real Estate (Bm78) (1000m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Obrien Real Estate (Bm78) (1000m) 7:30pm (AEDT)
1. Lagerfeld (1) J: Matthew Cartwright (63kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	2.7	2.9	2.6	2.8
2. Seemingly Discreet (7) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P Stokes	2.35	2.4	2.25	2.3
3. Aluf (6) J: Jake Noonan (57kg) T: Jamie Edwards	11	11	11.2	9.5
4. Memphis Rock (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	6	6.5	5.7	6.5
5. Kyzamba (3) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr	12	15	13.2	10
6. Knowles (5) J: Unknown (56kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
7. Gibbon (4) J: Zac Spain (56kg) T: B J Goodwin
8. Getemhel (2) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56kg) T: F G Finnegan

Odds Last Updated: November 7, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 6

Mercedes-Benz Mornington-Bm70 (1400m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Mercedes-Benz Mornington-Bm70 (1400m) 8:00pm (AEDT)
1. Ears The Barman (5) J: Michael Poy (61kg) T: P Stokes	3.1	2.7	3.25	2.7
2. Princeton Spirit (2) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (61kg) T: Julius Sandhu	16	19	15.6	18
3. I Got You (4) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi	16	17	18.2	18
4. O'tauto (3) J: Ethan Brown (60kg) T: G Eurell	5	6	5.1	5.5
5. Triton Rising (7) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	4.8	5	4.65	5
6. Jesta Dreama (1) J: Ben Allen (58.5kg) T: Ms W Kelly	10	12	9.2	10
7. Eagle Ridge (6) J: Jason Maskiell (57.5kg) T: Gavin Bedggood	17	18	17.2	19
8. Seafield Road (8) J: Matthew Cartwright (57kg) T: N J Harnett	6	5.5	6.1	6

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is arguably the best bet today with the consistent gelding (1) Ears the Barman competing in another bm70 grade over 1400 metres. He has recently competed in the same grade (three previous starts) for a win, a second and an unlucky eighth. He beat Metronome in the last start who we had fancied. Today he finds himself in what appears an easier field than his last two starts. He tends to get back but in a small field over the 1400 he’ll have every chance here.

(8) Seafield Road is the one that may challenge with very little weight but it’s a step up in grade.

Tip: (1) Ears The Barman $1.90 TAB

Race 7

De Bortoli Wines Hcp (C1) (1400m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 De Bortoli Wines Hcp (C1) (1400m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Redwood Rising (6) J: Michael Walker (61kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	5	5.5	5.1	5.5
2. Turbeau (10) J: Luke Nolen (61kg) T: D R Brideoake	3.7	3.9	3.55	4
3. Kiptanui (5) J: Craig Newitt (60.5kg) T: Ms W Kelly	7	7	6.1	7
4. Super Yulong (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60.5kg) T: M M Laurie	4.6	4.8	4.3	4.6
5. Big Darryl (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (59kg) T: Andrew Homann	23	20	23	21
6. Daania (3) J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg) T: D Binaisse	6.5	6.5	6.6	6.5
7. Chloe's Day (11) J: Rhys Mcleod (57.5kg) T: P G Carey	10	12	10.2	11
8. Delightful Hustler (1) J: Ben Allen (57.5kg) T: D R Brideoake
9. Fortyfivedegrees (7) J: Harry Grace (56.5kg) T: R J Blacker	19	16	21.5	14
10. Make Mine Hennessy (2) J: Patrick Moloney (56.5kg) T: Saab Hasan
11. Valjeta (9) J: Liam Riordan (56kg) T: Nathan Dunn	46	51	65	41

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Tab Long May We Play (Bm64) (1600m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Tab Long May We Play (Bm64) (1600m) 9:00pm (AEDT)
1. Hunamosa (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse (61.5kg) T: Luke Oliver
2. Legenda (5) J: Michael Poy (60.5kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr	26	20	32	19
3. Facemask (11) J: Luke Nolen (59.5kg) T: P G Moody	2.8	3	2.85	2.9
4. French Bishop (1) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Shea Eden
5. Royal Volley (4) J: Jason Maskiell (59.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield	27	41	34	34
6. Without Excuse (9) J: Liam Riordan (59.5kg) T: L Xuereb	18	17	18.2	16
7. Chairman's List (3) J: Zac Spain (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
8. Abiding (10) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	2.5	2.6	2.4	2.6
9. Muleta (6) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: Brett Scott	7.5	9	7.4	8.5
10. Cyclone Sally (8) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: N J Harnett	12	12	10.8	11
11. Empire Liberty (12) J: Campbell Rawiller (56.5kg) T: Michael Trotter	21	26	19.6	21
12. My Diamonds Galore (2) J: Jordan Childs (56.5kg) T: M D Moroney	23	20	23.5	21

Odds Last Updated: January 9, 2021, 12:52am (AEDT)

Pretty keen to follow the Peter Moody runner (3) Facemask into the future. You would only get a horse named Facemask in 2020 – and while there is plenty going wrong this year – Moody seems to be finding his groove since coming back into the training ranks after his ban for cobalt treatment charges. Facemask won its maiden (first up) over 1400 metres by almost two lengths. He also won a trial leading into that race. Of course he finds a tougher field here in a bm64 – and horses rarely go from a maiden to winning a bm64. And he gets a pretty tough gate. So the question is whether we follow him in this race.

Mare (6) Without Excuse is going for her third win in as many races. Last win was at the same grade and has been tested on all surfaces. She is double figure odds and looks overs in this field. (8) Abiding is a fast starter and is likely to sit alongside Without Excuse in competing for the lead. The Waterhouse & Bott runner is stepping up in grade and will find this one tougher.

Tip: (6) Without Excuse $10 Bet365

Also backing: (3) Facemask $4.00 Bet365

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.