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Cranbourne Racing Tips: Saturday, November 13th

Cranbourne Cup day this Saturday and Trent Crebbin’s best bet comes up in the feature.

Cranbourne

Saturday racing heads to Cranbourne in Victoria for their standalone Cup Day.

The feature is over 1600m this year, and will take place on a heavy track. Currently a soft 6, expect closer to a heavy 9 with the rail true.

Trent Crebbin has done the form for every race and his best bet comes up in the Cup with an absolute swimmer.

Best Bet- Race 7 (1) Buffalo River

Best Value- Race 4 (12) Audrey Girl

TAB Play Central

202418

Race 1

Rhino The Wrecker Plate (1000m)
12:35pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Rhino The Wrecker Plate (1000m)
12:35pm (AEDT)

1. Belgian Black (8) J: Lewis German (58kg) T: Jack Laing
3434343428.534
2. El Padrino (12) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
5.55555.65
3. Gracestar (4) J: Will Price (58kg) T: Rodney Foster
919181917181
4. Highland Harley (9) J: Jason Maskiell (58kg) T: Liam Howley
2726262627.526
5. Jamarra (7) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
77676.87.5
6. Taut You Could (2) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: G Eurell
8.58.58.58.588.5
7. Valenconi (5) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
98.58.58.58.58.5
8. Greyt Mumma (6) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
4.84.84.64.44.45
9. Little Strawberry (1) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: Clayton Douglas
10. Prairie Flower (10) J: Blaike Mcdougall (56kg) T: Henry Dwyer
1212121212.212
11. Witness The Dream (11) J: Patrick Moloney (56kg) T: K L Corstens
3126262620.526
12. You Ess Ess Are (3) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
444444.2

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Tough race with most of the field on debut, and the ones that have had a run not showing a whole lot. The well named (12) You Ess Ess Are (by Russian Revolution) has jumped out well over the short course. Looks a fast early horse that will be hard to beat on debut.

(8) Greyt Mumma has also showed plenty of speed in jumpouts and expect her to be right there early.

Big watch on (6) Taut You Could on his home track with Damian Lane booked, who very rarely rides for the Greg Eurell stable. Expect him to be wound up to win on debut.

 

Tip: (6) Taut You Could- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

202418

Race 2

Obrien Real Estate Classic (2025m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Obrien Real Estate Classic (2025m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

1. Blushing Tycoon (3) J: Craig Newitt (60kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
2.052.12.052.22.052
2. Station One (1) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Liam Howley
2.52.52.42.352.452.5
3. The Amazonian (7) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
5.554.84.84.555
4. Sacred Cove (5) J: Will Price (54kg) T: F G Finnegan
2626212626.523
5. Toropeak (2) J: Randy Tan (54kg) T: S C Bottomley
2018171814.817
6. Who Are Those Guys (4) J: Ms Jade Darose (54kg) T: Anthony Cosgriff
717161717361
7. Our Duke (6) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: Shay Keating
919181917781

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Pretty low race here for the 3yo’s over 2025m. (1) Blushing Tycoon was only narrowly beaten by Spirit Of Gaylard last start at Flemington which is clearly the best form line. He had every chance there and did start $18 but looks hard to beat.

(2) Station One did start $5.50 in the same race, leading and dropping out to be beaten 9L by Blushing Tycoon. That was only his 2nd start and they went above benchmark early, copping plenty of pressure. The debut win at this track, on a soft 7, was dominant and he meets Blushing Tycoon 5.5kg better at the weights. He can turn the tables.

Blushing Tycoon has come out leaving Station One around $1.50. Should win but I was keener to take on the favourite.

Tip: (2) Station One- $3.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Station One

202418

Race 3

Frankston Sand Soil Hcp (1200m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Frankston Sand Soil Hcp (1200m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

1. Scissor Step (1) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
333333
2. He's Xceptional (3) J: Thomas Stockdale (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
101010108.710
3. Jigsaw (11) J: Brett Prebble (58.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
5555.55.65
4. Cheerful Legend (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (57kg) T: J D Sadler
1111111110.211
5. Big Apple (10) J: Lachlan Neindorf (54kg) T: M M Laurie
232121212023
6. Chartres (8) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: M M Laurie
1515141411.815
7. Riduna (6) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
6.565.55.55.16.5
8. True Nobility (2) J: Blaike Mcdougall (54kg) T: P A Chow
998.599.18.5
9. Video (5) J: Josh Richards (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1516161616.216
10. Gorgeous Prophet (9) J: Will Price (54kg) T: C W Mcdonald
911018181111101
11. Xtra Gear (7) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: Richard Laming
1920212120.521

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Tough race. (1) Scissor Step clearly brings the best form having chased home Generation last start in fast time. Barrier 1 and a heavy track are queries but he’s the class horse.

(7) Riduna is the one that should handle the wet. She’s had one go on a heavy track on debut and was only beaten 0.3L by Ashema and Yearning, who has gone on to be a pretty handy filly. Two starts ago she was good in the Reginald Allen, beaten 2.8L by Fangirl. Forgive last start when she jumped awkwardly and settled a long way back. She was beaten 8.3L but the winner, Espiona, is a proper group 1 horse, and Riduna’s last 600m was 2nd best of the race. Maps better here, should get through the conditions and run well.

(9) Video won well on debut at Horsham and gets in with 51kg after the claim which can be very potent on wet tracks.

Video has also come out and with a few more scratchings Riduna looks a good bet.

Tip: (7) Riduna- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Riduna

202418

Race 4

Mazda Shooting Star (C3) (1500m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Mazda Shooting Star (C3) (1500m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

1. Mr Pickwick (11) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: Patrick Payne
2121212116.821
2. Lofty Star (2) J: Craig Williams (60kg) T: Julius Sandhu
87656.38
3. Real Sensation (1) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: Luke Oliver
3.63.63.43.43.653.5
4. Our Lone Star (7) J: Teodore Nugent (58.5kg) T: Sean Mott
4.84.84.6554.6
5. Lyrical Lad (6) J: Jamie Mott (58.5kg) T: P Stokes
665.56.55.65.5
6. Comanche Brave (10) J: Beau Mertens (58.5kg) T: Julius Sandhu
1716151513.417
7. Magnus Bellagio (9) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
1514131413.413
8. Oceans Of Stanima (8) J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg) T: P G Moody
2020192121.519
9. Manasa (5) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1818171814.617
10. Mister Me (3) J: Craig Newitt (55kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
129.512139.412
11. The Sentinel (4) J: Ms Rhonda Mangan (55kg) T: Ms R Mangan
12. Audrey Girl (12) J: Josh Richards (53kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1212111112.212

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

On a tough card I’ve made (12) Audrey Girl my best value of the day. She comes out of the Group 2 Wakeful over 2000m where she was outclassed beaten 6L, but the start prior over 1600m was very good behind Rhinoceros, with the Oaks 2nd placegetter Douceur back in 6th. The start prior Audrey Girl won her maiden on a heavy 8 so the conditions should be fine. Back in trip I like, with 53kg, she can run well.

(3) Real Sensation comes out of the best race at Flemington which was the Country Final, beaten 3.1L. He has run well in a weird race at The Valley one day which was a soft 6 but likely much wetter in a real slog. Don’t want to lose on him.

(4) Our Lone Star was solid first up off the back of some very good trials leading in. 1500m will suit and he’s in the game.

Tip: (3) Real Sensation- $2.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Real Sensation

202418

Race 5

Rosemont Stud Pendant (1400m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Rosemont Stud Pendant (1400m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

1. Force Of Will (10) J: Michael Dee (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2326212119.626
2. Belle Plaisir (7) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
11109119.910
3. Brazen Song (8) J: Jamie Mott (57kg) T: S P Nichols
887.57.57.68
4. Paul's Regret (1) J: Damien Thornton (57kg) T: P A Chow
10109.59.58.610
5. Standoff (6) J: Brian Higgins (57kg) T: Grant & Peter Dalziel
2326212625.523
6. April Rain (3) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: C J Waller
1.9522.12.052.12
7. Be Amazing (4) J: Craig Newitt (56kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
12615110110195151
8. Wanalirri (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: P F Ryan
465141413951
9. Way To Go Paula (9) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: P Stokes
232126212323
10. Maybe The Best (2) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
4.24.24.44.43.754.2

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Many will have (6) April Rain as their best of the day. She’s been desperately unlucky in both runs this prep, first up behind Quantico who has since won very nicely again at Flemington, and last start she was beaten 5.7L but was never tested. Her soft track record reads well on paper, but I’m a firm believer she’s better on top of the ground and a proper heavy track isn’t to her liking. That being said, she’s got a class edge on these and that will take her a long way.

(10) Maybe The Best is unknown on wet tracks but racing well. She has trialled well on heavy tracks before and maps well- if April Rain doesn’t handle it she might be the one to just keep kicking.

(3) Brazen Song doesn’t mind it wet and is racing well. She had no peace up front in the Tristarc on a soft 7 two back, beaten 6L by Colette, but she was very brave last start in the Country Final at a big price over 1600m. I prefer her at 1400m and she can try to run these into the ground back in trip on the quick backup.

(2) Belle Plaisir was good in the April Rain race last start and she’ll swim in the conditions. 3rd up now she should be primed, and she’s 2/2 on heavy in New Zealand. Currie takes the ride, she can run well.

Tip: (3) Brazen Song- $8.00/2.25 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Belle Plaisir- $11.00/2.85 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/1.25 units E/W Brazen Song, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Belle Plaisir

202418

Race 6

Procon Apache Cat Classic (1000m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Procon Apache Cat Classic (1000m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

1. Blazejowski (2) J: Jamie Mott (60kg) T: G Eurell
4.44.24.644.454.2
2. Dexelation (8) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: R & C Jolly
333.133.052.9
3. I Am Someone (7) J: Blaike Mcdougall (54.5kg) T: Logan Mcgill
2726313120.526
4. Bless Her (4) J: Luke Currie (54kg) T: Clayton Douglas
3.73.73.93.83.83.5
5. Excess Funds (3) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh
1616161713.416
6. Huffington (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (54kg) T: P Stokes
1413131410.812
7. Sir Kalahad (1) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
121213121013
8. Music Addition (9) J: Craig Newitt (54kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
1818191914.817
9. Fast 'N' Deep (6) J: Lachlan King (54kg) T: Mark Sues
1615161512.414

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

(2) Dexelation is flying having won his last two, the latest at The Valley when coming from well off the speed in a very good performance. I think they’ve figured out this prep that he is an 1000m, get back, run on sprinter, and a heavy track is no issue for this horse. Deserves to be favourite, will be hard to beat.

If this were 1200m I’d be incredibly keen on (7) Sir Kalahad who is a very good wet tracker. He did beat Dexelation on a heavy 10 during the winter over 1200m by 3.5L, it’s just his 1000m record. Don’t think he has the speed to lead over 1000m but I hope he can because he’ll relish the conditions.

(4) Bless Her can improve around a bend and on a wet track. She was going well before last start when failing at Flemington and if you forgive that she’s right in this, but the market hasn’t missed her.

If Sir Kalahad runs a place we profit on the race, but I think he and Dexelation are a good two bet play.

Tip: (2) Dexelation- $3.20 at Bet365

Value: (7) Sir Kalahad- $13.00/3.40 at BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Dexelation, 0.5 units WIN Sir Kalahad, 1 unit PLC Sir Kalahad

202418

Race 7

Tab Cranbourne Cup (1600m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Tab Cranbourne Cup (1600m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Buffalo River (13) J: Jordan Childs (60kg) T: M D Moroney
7.57777.67.5
2. So Si Bon (14) J: Luke Nolen (60kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
2120192018.421
3. Age Of Chivalry (3) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
9.51010108.810
4. Aramayo (9) J: Craig Williams (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
5. Lunar Fox (7) J: Brett Prebble (59kg) T: P A Preusker
1819182016.618
6. Justacanta (4) J: Jamie Mott (58.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
1515151515.215
7. Harbour Views (18) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: M J Williams
8. In A Twinkling (8) J: Craig Newitt (57.5kg) T: L Smith
465151514151
9. No Effort (16) J: Beau Mertens (56.5kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
1516161715.616
10. King Magnus (11) J: Lachlan King (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
77777.17
11. Our Playboy (17) J: Zac Spain (55kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
443.93.94.054
12. Riddle Me That (15) J: Daniel Stackhouse (55kg) T: M M Laurie
2121212017.623
13. Don't Doubt Dory (1) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: J R Welsh
1098.58.59.69.5
14. Winning Partner (19) J: Luke Currie (54kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
15. Holbien (5) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: S J Richards
716761674761
16. Arcadia Prince (12) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: Amy Mcdonald
126126101101131126
17. Imperial Lad (6) J: Ms Alana Kelly (54kg) T: J F Moloney
191817181517
18. Mystery Shot (10) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: L Smith
1111101011.211
19. Barbie's Fox (2) J: Lewis German (54kg) T: Ms L Bonella
414141413141

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Feature of the day is the Cranbourne Cup, run over 1600m this year. (1) Buffalo River comes out of the Cantala where he was attacked for the lead and well beaten, but that was on a good 3 and he’s just so much better on heavy ground. He’s 2/2 on heavy, has never missed a place on soft, and hasn’t seen a heavy since May 2020. Keen to see him on a proper bottomless track, the 60kg at 1600m isn’t ideal but I think he leads and a few of these behind will be struggling in the conditions when he runs them along.

(10) King Magnus is flying and beat Buffalo River home in the Cantala by 4.6L. It was a swooper’s race and he came from the back so I think he was advantaged, but he’s so consistent and hard to knock. Buffalo River did beat him fair and square on a soft 7 over 1400m two back but he should handle heavy and is so consistent.

(2) So Si Bon found the track a bit too firm last start at The Valley and I think he can run well on a heavy. He hasn’t seen one in a while but I think he’s looking for it now.

(11) Our Playboy loves it wet and won well last week at Flemington but I thought he was short enough getting a long way back in a harder race.

Tip: (1) Buffalo River- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (2) So Si Bon- $21.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Buffalo River, 0.25 units WIN So Si Bon

202418

Race 8

Reed Cranes Marathon (Bm84) (2500m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Reed Cranes Marathon (Bm84) (2500m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Starcaster (3) J: Blaike Mcdougall (62kg) T: A & S Freedman
2319181914.618
2. Constantinople (2) J: Thomas Stockdale (60.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
514141514041
3. Mankayan (8) J: Josh Richards (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.12.9332.83
4. Royal Crown (5) J: Mrs Jackie Horner (57.5kg) T: M C Kent
3126262622.526
5. Accountability (9) J: Damian Lane (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
4.443.83.83.74
6. Sous Les Nuages (12) J: Fred Kersley (56.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
7. Yulong Rising (17) J: Will Price (56kg) T: Amy Mcdonald
716151616351
8. Indiana Lilly (11) J: Craig Newitt (55kg) T: Shea Eden
1312121312.412
9. Nobel Heights (4) J: Jordan Childs (55kg) T: Matthew Cumani
10. Primitivo (10) J: Ms Jade Darose (55kg) T: M A Bell
15112610110177101
11. Blandford Lad (14) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
1714131313.214
12. Brawl (1) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: P A Preusker
1513131313.413
13. Brilliant Venture (6) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
6.55.55.55.55.25.5
14. Monmouth (16) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: Ms A Bennett
342626262826
15. Into Rio (7) J: Beau Mertens (54kg) T: C F Hyland
2118171714.417
16. Epsom Days (15) J: Unknown (54kg) T: P G Carey
816151614151
17. True Marvel (13) J: Craig Williams (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
98888.68.5

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

If (3) Mankayan is ever going to win a race in Australia this will be it. He’s become very costly but clearly comes out of the best form beaten 0.75L in the Hotham by Great House in a very fast race. The query is a heavy track- his only go on it overseas he was beaten 123 lengths and yet somehow still beat 3 home. In Australia he’s seen a soft 7 and was a big run at Kembla when too far back. If he handles the conditions he’ll go very close.

(8) Indiana Lily loves it wet coming off a heavy 10 win in the Kyneton Cup. This is harder but she’s flying and will eat up the conditions.

(5) Accountability is going well but a wet track is a query. From 8 starts on rain affected ground he’s only won once, and never placed in the others.

Mankayan on top but he’s not the sort of horse I want to really launch. Just a small bet because he’s got the class edge.

Tip: (3) Mankayan- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mankayan

202418

Race 9

Hertz (Bm70) (1300m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Hertz (Bm70) (1300m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. The General (8) J: Craig Williams (62.5kg) T: Richard Laming
7.57.57.57.56.37.5
2. Alsvin (11) J: Ms Alana Kelly (61.5kg) T: Shea Eden
312131343031
3. Imperial Hilton (12) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (61.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
5.55.5555.65.5
4. High 'N' Dry (7) J: Damien Thornton (61kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
9.59.599.59.49
5. Naval Envoy (1) J: Craig Newitt (60.5kg) T: Ms D Loos
111111111011
6. Mr Roger (14) J: Blaike Mcdougall (60kg) T: Richard Laming
101010108.410
7. Redsnap (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60kg) T: Brett Scott
1413131310.813
8. Cambourne (9) J: Brett Prebble (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
6.56.566.56.66
9. D'jumbuck (13) J: Will Price (59.5kg) T: Brian Mcgrath
1413121413.212
10. Address Melbourne (10) J: Joe Bowditch (58kg) T: B H Anderson
11. Voyage De Lune (2) J: Patrick Moloney (57.5kg) T: Saab Hasan
12. Frankie Two Angels (15) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
1819192020.519
13. Staredown (3) J: Josh Richards (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9.59.599.59.69
14. Sweet Sixteen (5) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
88.58.598.78.5
15. Legenda (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (56kg) T: Jim Cerchi Jnr
10110110110191101

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Looks a pretty hot tempo. (14) Sweet Sixteen will be back in the field and hopefully getting to the outside. She was solid first up at Sale and should improve into this. She’s run fairly well on wet tracks and gets D Lane on replacing Jack Hill.

(1) The General will be up on speed and likes it wet, but he’s going to cop plenty of pressure with the 62.5kg. He does love it here at Cranbourne.

(3) Imperial Hilton is first up but strung a couple of wins together early last prep and will be back and charging.

Going to have something small on (2) Alsvin who I prefer over a tough 1300m than a mile. He was solid on a heavy track in a fast race last start behind a very promising US import. Prior to that he was only 1.5L off Akacheta who won last night and he’s rock hard fit, gets the 3kg claim, should sit OSL and run a race.

Tip: (2) Alsvin- $21.00/4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Alsvin

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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