Cranbourne Racing Tips: Saturday, November 13th

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Tough race with most of the field on debut, and the ones that have had a run not showing a whole lot. The well named (12) You Ess Ess Are (by Russian Revolution) has jumped out well over the short course. Looks a fast early horse that will be hard to beat on debut.

(8) Greyt Mumma has also showed plenty of speed in jumpouts and expect her to be right there early.

Big watch on (6) Taut You Could on his home track with Damian Lane booked, who very rarely rides for the Greg Eurell stable. Expect him to be wound up to win on debut.

 

Tip: (6) Taut You Could- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Pretty low race here for the 3yo’s over 2025m. (1) Blushing Tycoon was only narrowly beaten by Spirit Of Gaylard last start at Flemington which is clearly the best form line. He had every chance there and did start $18 but looks hard to beat.

(2) Station One did start $5.50 in the same race, leading and dropping out to be beaten 9L by Blushing Tycoon. That was only his 2nd start and they went above benchmark early, copping plenty of pressure. The debut win at this track, on a soft 7, was dominant and he meets Blushing Tycoon 5.5kg better at the weights. He can turn the tables.

Blushing Tycoon has come out leaving Station One around $1.50. Should win but I was keener to take on the favourite.

Tip: (2) Station One- $3.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Station One

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Tough race. (1) Scissor Step clearly brings the best form having chased home Generation last start in fast time. Barrier 1 and a heavy track are queries but he’s the class horse.

(7) Riduna is the one that should handle the wet. She’s had one go on a heavy track on debut and was only beaten 0.3L by Ashema and Yearning, who has gone on to be a pretty handy filly. Two starts ago she was good in the Reginald Allen, beaten 2.8L by Fangirl. Forgive last start when she jumped awkwardly and settled a long way back. She was beaten 8.3L but the winner, Espiona, is a proper group 1 horse, and Riduna’s last 600m was 2nd best of the race. Maps better here, should get through the conditions and run well.

(9) Video won well on debut at Horsham and gets in with 51kg after the claim which can be very potent on wet tracks.

Video has also come out and with a few more scratchings Riduna looks a good bet.

Tip: (7) Riduna- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Riduna

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

On a tough card I’ve made (12) Audrey Girl my best value of the day. She comes out of the Group 2 Wakeful over 2000m where she was outclassed beaten 6L, but the start prior over 1600m was very good behind Rhinoceros, with the Oaks 2nd placegetter Douceur back in 6th. The start prior Audrey Girl won her maiden on a heavy 8 so the conditions should be fine. Back in trip I like, with 53kg, she can run well.

(3) Real Sensation comes out of the best race at Flemington which was the Country Final, beaten 3.1L. He has run well in a weird race at The Valley one day which was a soft 6 but likely much wetter in a real slog. Don’t want to lose on him.

(4) Our Lone Star was solid first up off the back of some very good trials leading in. 1500m will suit and he’s in the game.

Tip: (3) Real Sensation- $2.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Real Sensation

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Many will have (6) April Rain as their best of the day. She’s been desperately unlucky in both runs this prep, first up behind Quantico who has since won very nicely again at Flemington, and last start she was beaten 5.7L but was never tested. Her soft track record reads well on paper, but I’m a firm believer she’s better on top of the ground and a proper heavy track isn’t to her liking. That being said, she’s got a class edge on these and that will take her a long way.

(10) Maybe The Best is unknown on wet tracks but racing well. She has trialled well on heavy tracks before and maps well- if April Rain doesn’t handle it she might be the one to just keep kicking.

(3) Brazen Song doesn’t mind it wet and is racing well. She had no peace up front in the Tristarc on a soft 7 two back, beaten 6L by Colette, but she was very brave last start in the Country Final at a big price over 1600m. I prefer her at 1400m and she can try to run these into the ground back in trip on the quick backup.

(2) Belle Plaisir was good in the April Rain race last start and she’ll swim in the conditions. 3rd up now she should be primed, and she’s 2/2 on heavy in New Zealand. Currie takes the ride, she can run well.

Tip: (3) Brazen Song- $8.00/2.25 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Belle Plaisir- $11.00/2.85 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/1.25 units E/W Brazen Song, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Belle Plaisir

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

(2) Dexelation is flying having won his last two, the latest at The Valley when coming from well off the speed in a very good performance. I think they’ve figured out this prep that he is an 1000m, get back, run on sprinter, and a heavy track is no issue for this horse. Deserves to be favourite, will be hard to beat.

If this were 1200m I’d be incredibly keen on (7) Sir Kalahad who is a very good wet tracker. He did beat Dexelation on a heavy 10 during the winter over 1200m by 3.5L, it’s just his 1000m record. Don’t think he has the speed to lead over 1000m but I hope he can because he’ll relish the conditions.

(4) Bless Her can improve around a bend and on a wet track. She was going well before last start when failing at Flemington and if you forgive that she’s right in this, but the market hasn’t missed her.

If Sir Kalahad runs a place we profit on the race, but I think he and Dexelation are a good two bet play.

Tip: (2) Dexelation- $3.20 at Bet365

Value: (7) Sir Kalahad- $13.00/3.40 at BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Dexelation, 0.5 units WIN Sir Kalahad, 1 unit PLC Sir Kalahad

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Feature of the day is the Cranbourne Cup, run over 1600m this year. (1) Buffalo River comes out of the Cantala where he was attacked for the lead and well beaten, but that was on a good 3 and he’s just so much better on heavy ground. He’s 2/2 on heavy, has never missed a place on soft, and hasn’t seen a heavy since May 2020. Keen to see him on a proper bottomless track, the 60kg at 1600m isn’t ideal but I think he leads and a few of these behind will be struggling in the conditions when he runs them along.

(10) King Magnus is flying and beat Buffalo River home in the Cantala by 4.6L. It was a swooper’s race and he came from the back so I think he was advantaged, but he’s so consistent and hard to knock. Buffalo River did beat him fair and square on a soft 7 over 1400m two back but he should handle heavy and is so consistent.

(2) So Si Bon found the track a bit too firm last start at The Valley and I think he can run well on a heavy. He hasn’t seen one in a while but I think he’s looking for it now.

(11) Our Playboy loves it wet and won well last week at Flemington but I thought he was short enough getting a long way back in a harder race.

Tip: (1) Buffalo River- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (2) So Si Bon- $21.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Buffalo River, 0.25 units WIN So Si Bon

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

If (3) Mankayan is ever going to win a race in Australia this will be it. He’s become very costly but clearly comes out of the best form beaten 0.75L in the Hotham by Great House in a very fast race. The query is a heavy track- his only go on it overseas he was beaten 123 lengths and yet somehow still beat 3 home. In Australia he’s seen a soft 7 and was a big run at Kembla when too far back. If he handles the conditions he’ll go very close.

(8) Indiana Lily loves it wet coming off a heavy 10 win in the Kyneton Cup. This is harder but she’s flying and will eat up the conditions.

(5) Accountability is going well but a wet track is a query. From 8 starts on rain affected ground he’s only won once, and never placed in the others.

Mankayan on top but he’s not the sort of horse I want to really launch. Just a small bet because he’s got the class edge.

Tip: (3) Mankayan- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mankayan

Odds Last Updated: November 13, 2021, 5:50am (AEDT)

Looks a pretty hot tempo. (14) Sweet Sixteen will be back in the field and hopefully getting to the outside. She was solid first up at Sale and should improve into this. She’s run fairly well on wet tracks and gets D Lane on replacing Jack Hill.

(1) The General will be up on speed and likes it wet, but he’s going to cop plenty of pressure with the 62.5kg. He does love it here at Cranbourne.

(3) Imperial Hilton is first up but strung a couple of wins together early last prep and will be back and charging.

Going to have something small on (2) Alsvin who I prefer over a tough 1300m than a mile. He was solid on a heavy track in a fast race last start behind a very promising US import. Prior to that he was only 1.5L off Akacheta who won last night and he’s rock hard fit, gets the 3kg claim, should sit OSL and run a race.

Tip: (2) Alsvin- $21.00/4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Alsvin