Cranbourne Racing Tips: Thursday, October 29th

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2020, 12:03am (AEDT)

It’s a pretty tough maiden to start off proceedings, where the favourite (7) Ain’t She Cute looks a touch vulnerable. The 1000 metre race she competed in at Bendigo was taken out by the progressive horse Far Enough where she placed fourth in a field of eight. Her first preparation she raced once and ran second in an average maiden.

(1) Changing Tracks is probably the form horse out of this bunch, but there is a question on her race pattern. She gets back and today draws the inside gate. It might land her in a real sticky position, so the race intentions play a major role here.

(3) Quality Diamond is the other one in the market, and conversely, she can jump and lead but finds herself in an outside gate. I think all three can be in the finish. The sensible approach here is playing the best priced runner each-way, so Changing Tracks goes on top.

Tip: (1) Changing Tracks $6.00 / $2.20 E/W Bet365

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

There is a field of eleven here in the second, a maiden over 1600 metres. The track is a Soft 5 at the time of writing so we can assume that it’ll be in that same range. If the rain comes things may get easier, with a number of the runners with exposed Heavy form.

(8) Newzeel Deal has raced on Heavy twice this preparation and placed second both times. The runs were meritorious, and if he handles any condition, than he will go a long way towards winning this. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace in the field, so arguably they’ll all get their chance.

(3) Captain Canuck is the main rival in this field; the Maher & Eustace runner draws a touch wider, but has been running reasonably well on the Soft. The pair of them have posted competitive times for this race, so while any market moves might assist in separating the two, for now we have Newzeel Deal on top.

Tip: (8) Newzeel Deal $2.70 Tab

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2020, 12:03am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2020, 12:03am (AEDT)

We have had (6) Prosecutor as a top selection a couple times now, and he has proven costly. Not sure if punters have had enough of the Star Witness gelding, but it is hard to ignore six seconds from nine starts. Proven on Soft ground is a plus. Pretty comfortable to give him one more chance—not sure if taking the blinkers off for the first time will make the difference, but it’s worth trying.

If he manages to find another one that is a touch better it could be (13) Prince Romany who has early favouritism in the market.

(8) Maree De Lune has performed satisfactory to date, and can be in the places once again.

Tip: (6) Prosecutor $3.10 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 9, 2021, 12:52am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2020, 12:03am (AEDT)

 

The top weight (1) Chief Altony has been racing convincingly in this grade and is close to another win. Placing second in his last two outings, he has not missed a place in any of his five starts. He lugs the heaviest weight but Michael Rodd’s quality should be enough to offset it. He has raced on Soft three times and performed well on each occasion. The step up in distance is a positive considering the way he has been closing out races. Comfortable to be backing him.

(5) Baglioni has shown some promise while (4) Tsugaru could be the one with the most upside.

(3) New Choice broke his maiden this track last race, but uncertain whether he can win again against a stronger line-up.

Tip: (1) Chief Altony $2.70 Bet365

 

Odds Last Updated: January 9, 2021, 12:52am (AEDT)

When assessing this race (4) Smart Design looked like he should be favourite, despite stepping slightly up in grade. He has had nine starts for two wins and seven places, and he should be very competitive again in this field. The other positives; he has been tested on all track conditions, gets Campbell Rawiller in the saddle, and has some serious race fitness.

The market, at the moment, has (3) Our Musketeer ahead of him, who likewise, is slightly stepping up in class (after winning first-up). He also has been tested on all track conditions.

Admittedly it is tough to split them, with them being drawn alongside each-other, so we’ll soon know which one is the better horse. The map could see Our Musketeer fighting for the lead, where Smart Design can get alongside or drop-in just behind him—either way he is likely to get the gun run.

At the odds, Smart Design gets the nod. Outside the top two, it’s anyone’s guess!

Tip: (4) Smart Design $4.60 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

The race favourite (10) Toffee Doll does look to have some talent, but she hasn’t been overly convincing this preparation. Her best effort was placing third at Echuca in a bm64, so pretty keen to take her on today. There are a couple of other runners that are priced well, so we’ll be playing them.

(12) Ringfort hasn’t had a lot of luck, and today gets the inside gate, from where she can make his own luck. The Fastnet Rock mare is currently $18 in the market. This looks like one of those races where the Price & Kent galloper can step-up and take the prize.

The interesting one in this race is (1) Independent Road who has competed in a Group 1. His only win was over this distance, and he can perform reasonably well first-up, despite getting over further late in his campaigns. His last three runs mid-year saw him come in fourth, fourth and fifth, behind the likes of Persan and Right You Are. If he runs up to that grade he should be winning this. He will want the track dry, so the market support may tell the story.

Tip: (12) Ringfort $18 Sportsbet

Also backing: (1) Independent Road $6.50 Sportsbet