Doomben Racing Tips: Saturday, May 22nd

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 11:36am (AEDT)

Wide-open 2000m race to kick off the card. I was fairly taken by the win of (10) Prince Of Arragon last start. He did enjoy a dream run throughout and saved all the ground on the turn, while all the other horses fanned off the rail, but he was dominant in any case. He won well first up and his win last start suggested he’s come back in career-best form. Not sure he beat a whole lot but he looks hard to beat on what he’s done this prep.

(11) Olympic Class should lead or box seat at worst. He was a good winner first up and was then heavily backed last start when failing on the heavy ground at the Gold Coast. He was also jumping form 1400m to 1800m. Up to 2000m now third up and back on firmer ground, he can be the big improver.

(12) Designs maps very well from barrier 4. Was only narrowly edged out last start over 1845m at Eagle Farm. Two starts ago she was slow away and took no part, and prior to that she was beaten as the odds-on favourite after sitting wide throughout. Damian Lane goes on today and she looks value at $8.50.

Chances don’t end there. Main bet Prince Of Arragon, smaller bets Designs and Olympic Class.

Tip: (10) Prince Of Arragon $3.30 TAB

Also Backing: (12) Designs $8.50 Sportsbet

Value: (11) Olympic Class $9.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Prince Of Arragon, 0.5 units WIN Designs, 0.5 units WIN Olympic Class

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 12:12pm (AEDT)

Another wide-open race here and I’ll be having something small on two at big odds.

(8) Picka Plum is the first, at $21. She’s had two runs back from a spell this time in, but I just don’t think she likes wet ground. She’s yet to in in four attempts on rain-affected ground, with all six career wins coming on good ground. I suspect the track will be much more to her liking today. Maps to get a great run from barrier 3 and she’s proven effective over this track and distance in the past.

(10) Mocambo draws barrier 1, which would probably be an advantage for most other horses at Doomben, but he tends to jump slowly. He won his first start in Queensland, which was here at Doomben. He then ran 2^nd to Firebox, who then came out and won his next start by 2L. Happy to forgive his last start where he struck a soft track – he’s never won in eight starts on soft ground so fair to say he will be much better suited on a good track here.

Plenty of chances in a tough race.

Tip: (10) Mocambo $16 TAB

Also Backing: (8) Picka Plum $21 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mocambo, 0.5 units WIN Picka Plum

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 12:47pm (AEDT)

I think the form of (1) Stellar Magic really stands up here. Two starts ago she beat Invinsible Tears, who then came out and ran 2^nd to Prince Of Boom last weekend. She then ran 2^nd to Miss Hipstar, with Ashema back in 3^rd. Ashema went to Sydney and was narrowly beaten, while Miss Hipstar was a forgive run last weekend. Maps for a good run from barrier 3 and should be right there in the finish.

(2) Rhapsody Rose was a big run in defeat first up in the Ken Russell at the Gold Coast. She sat three-wide the trip and was only beaten 0.5L by Subterranean and Ranch Hand. Her only start here at Doomben was an easy win. Drawn awkwardly again here which is the negative but $13 looks over the odds.

(5) Socialist is the one that brings the different formline. She’s had all four starts in Sydney. Two starts ago she ran 2^nd to Xtremetime, who then came out and won again in Sydney last weekend. She then broke through for her maiden win at Canterbury. Should go forward and be hard to beat.

(7) Dovetail Diva was only beaten a length first up in the Ken Russell on the Gold Coast. She drew wide that day but gets barrier 1 today, which is a big positive for her. Should kick up and lead and will take some catching.

Tip: (1) Stellar Magic $4.00 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Rhapsody Rose $13 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Stellar Magic, 0.5 units WIN Rhapsody Rose

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 1:22pm (AEDT)

(4) Lord Olympus looks crazy over the odds in my opinion. His form all prep has been very good. First up he ran an eye-catching 3^rd down the straight at Flemington, second up he was beaten 3.3L by Isotope after sitting three-wide the trip, third up he won here at Doomben after settling last in the run, and last start he was caught three-wide the trip in the Gold Coast Guineas. He was only beaten 2.5L there, finishing 1.4L behind Kisukano and narrowly ahead of Rocketing By. Both those horses are shorter than him in the market here and I think the discrepancy is wrong. If he gets any sort of good run from barrier 7 here, I think he’ll give this a mighty shake.

(12) Shamaton steps up sharply in grade but might be worth having something tiny on at $51. He’s won his past two starts. Last start he beat Streaka, who had beaten Yis Yup Yay leading into that race, and Yis Yup Yay came out of that and won by 6L. The form stacks up, it’s just whether it measures up in this sort of grade. Maloney and Gollan are always a combination to be wary of and you can never count the stable out of a race in QLD.

(6) Tramonto was only run down late in the Gold Coast Guineas last start. Prior to that he sat three-wide the trip behind Starvirgo, and before that won by 6L. Whether he finds the front form barrier 10 is unlikely but can be included at big odds again.

(1) Wisdom Of Water continues to run well in defeat, while (2) Irish Playboy creates interest first up as a gelding.

Tip: (4) Lord Olympus $10/$$3.30 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Lord Olympus, 0.25 units WIN Shamaton

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the chances of (1) Paradee here. She comes into this fresh off an 11-week break and was last seen running 4^th in the G1 Australian Cup. Prior to that she’d won three on the bounce, including two on the Gold Coast. She carries top weight but I think she’s the best horse in the race, and from barrier 10 she should be able to get across to sit outside the leader. She’ll take a power of beating.

(10) Le Gai Soleil looks the danger and is the other one I’ll be backing. She won well first up at Warwick Farm, and her run in defeat last start was very good given the way the track played. She looks ready to be tested in a race like this.

(9) Gem Of Scotland has been going OK and I think she’ll really appreciate getting back onto firm ground today. She’s finished in the top two in seven of her eight starts on good ground.

(4) Nudge continues to run well but just finds one too good. Likely to get a fair way back from barrier 9 which is a concern, but she’s bound to win one soon.

Tip: (1) Paradee $3.75 Bet365

Saver: (10) Le Gai Soleil $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Paradee, 0.5 units WIN Le Gai Soleil

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

Looks no shortage of speed on here!

(4) King Of Hastings will go back from the wide draw but there may well be enough tempo on for him to run over the top late. He was beaten a nose first up last prep down the straight at Flemington. He went into that run with no public trials under the belt, but resumes today with two in preparation for this. Damain Lane booked, plenty to like.

(14) The Astrologist is another Victorian resuming here. This isn’t a stable I normally find, but the horse bolted in first up last prep and was huge in defeat first up the prep before. Can go forward or back so has options from the wide gate and at double figure odds, certainly isn’t hopeless.

(3) Just Orm was fair first up on the Gold Coast. Maloney sticks and gets barrier 1. Up to 1100m suits and no surprise to see him improve sharply.

Tip: (4) King of Hastings $7.00 TopSport

Value: (14) The Astrologist $10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN King Of Hastings, 0.5 units WIN The Astrologist

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

Not sure how (5) Zaaki got beat two starts ago, but he improved impressively last start to win the Hollindale Stakes dominantly on the Gold Coast. He faces a tougher task here against some legitimate Group 1 horses, but if he improves again, they won’t beat him. The draw makes things slightly tricky but with any luck I think he wins.

I think the blowout chance in the race is (6) Humidor who was OK in the Hollindale. He was first up off a nine-week break on that occasion, and he tends to improve second up. He may well be a long way past his best but at $27 he’s worth a small bet.

(1) Sir Dragonet brings legitimate form lines behind the likes of Addeybb and Verry Elleegant. He was only 1.6L off those two last start and he was a G1 winner over 2400m prior to that. The query has to be the fact his best run this prep clearly came over 2400m.

(2) Mugatoo won the All-Star Mile but I think he’s been a little underwhelming since then, so I’ll oppose here.

(9) Brandenburg is the one that remains a touch unexposed. His first two runs this prep were complete forgive runs and he then won The Coast last start at Gosford. Include in your numbers.

Tip: (5) Zaaki $2.50 TAB

Value: (6) Humidor $27 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Zaaki, 0.25 units WIN Humidor

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

Great race but not an easy one to work out.

(17) Skins gets a run as the first emergency and comes up with barrier 18. That gate makes life extremely tough but this is a very talented horse. He’s won five of his seven starts now and he beat Axe last start, who then came out and won easily last weekend. With any luck from the gate, I think he can go very close.

(4) Ranier is a big price. He ran a bottler first up and can improve with that run under he belt. Up to 1350m suits, this is his best distance, and Hugh Bowman has a terrific partnership with this horse and $16 looks over the odds.

(2) Tofane drops in grade and gets up to her best distance. She’s won two of her four starts when second up from a spell and at her best, she’d be winning this.

(8) Groundswell, (14) Garibaldi and (16) Axe all have hopes.

Tip: (17) Skins $6.00 TopSport

Value: (4) Ranier $16 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Skins, 0.5 units WIN Ranier

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

Market will tell us plenty here with so many Waller runners engaged.

(3) Grace And Harmony has been impressive all preparation and there’s not much reason to believe she can’t win again here. She’s undefeated from three starts this time in and was impressive scoring easily in the Gold Coast Bracelet last start. Just has to overcome the wide draw and should prove very hard to beat again.

(7) Charm’s Star is an interesting runner, having her first start in Australia for Waller, having last finished 2^nd in the NZ Oaks. Meets a good track for the first time in her career.

(10) Signora Nera draws barrier 1 which should give her a great run throughout. She chased home Grace And Harmony last start.

(6) Good Soize next best.

Tip: (3) Grace And Harmony $4.40 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Grace And Harmony