Flemington Racing Tips: Friday, January 29th

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(6) Oxley Road has jumped out well for his debut run. He’s certainly bred to be fast down the straight, being a full brother to Exceedance. Depending on the rain, I think the wide draws could be beneficial tonight. The early price has gone and at $1.85 he’s short enough.

 

(10) Aniceta ran well first up behind All Stardom and South Parade, which is solid form for a maiden. Kah takes over from Chelsea Hall which is a huge positive, and a wet track will help her case.

 

(3) Akaka Falls beat Aniceta home when they met at Sale last prep. There wasn’t much between them there, but Aniceta has a run under her belt and is $9.00 to Akaka Falls’ $4.40.

 

(14) Prince Of Mercia started $1.80 on debut which always piques my interest. It was only in a Moe maiden last prep, but the winner Twist Of Fury ties in with a few of these. He’s jumped out well and could improve.

 

Specking Aniceta and Prince Of Mercia, but not overly confident.

 

Tip: (10) Aniceta $9.00 TAB

Value: (14) Prince Of Mercia $14.00 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25 units WIN Aniceta, 0.25 units WIN Prince Of Mercia

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(11) Dana Point was an inconclusive run last start here over 1100m, racing solo up the inside rail. The form from her two runs prior has been fairly strong and back to the 1000m could suit.

 

(1) Diesel ‘n’ Dust took on some decent 3yo races last prep and wasn’t disgraced. He hasn’t won at the 1000m but has run 2^nd on three occasions. First up last prep he ran 4^th, beaten 2.4L by Miss Bosetti, only a head off Aysar. Also in that race was Donna Natalina, who Dana Point dead heated with two back. Diesel ‘n’ Dust clearly had her measure then and whilst water has gone under the bridge, he looks the hardest to beat here.

 

(6) All Of Brighton was good late on debut and backed it up last start at $1.35, winning stylishly at Benalla. He beat nothing, but Mcneil goes on and this looks a nice race for him.

 

(4) Jackpot Legend is in a similar boat having won his maiden well last start. He could lead the field and give a bit of cheek.

 

Tip: (1) Diesel ‘n’ Dust $5.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Diesel ‘n’ Dust

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Tricky little race. (10) Modear is the favourite coming off a 3^rd to Absolute Flirt, which does look the strongest form line. She was very well backed that day to start $3.20 and wasn’t given a great ride. Willo goes on which should help, but if we do get rain, I’d be worried- anything worse than a soft 5 and she might struggle.

 

(7) Sapphire Crown is drawn horribly in barrier one, but I’ve always had a bit of time for him. I think he’s a real 1000m horse, and some of his form last prep was quite good. At his most recent start he SP’d $2.60 in a decent 1000m bm78. He’s jumped out well and wouldn’t shock, but I do think he’ll drift from the $5.00.

 

(6) Huffington has won her last two in easier grade but does get D Lane on today. She’s 3/4 for her career, and unbeaten at the 1000m. The straight track will be different ball game as opposed to leading around a bend, but she’s hard to knock.

 

(3) Deep Dive isn’t the most consistent horse but definitely has the talent to win this if he’s ready to go first up.

 

I think the market is about right at the moment, but I can see Sapphire Crown getting out in the market late, and if that’s the case I’m happy to back him despite barrier one.

 

Tip: (7) Sapphire Crown $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Sapphire Crown

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

I’d have preferred him up in trip, but (5) Zipping Boy can win again here. He’s another horse I’ve always had time for and is starting to hit his straps after a luckless first up run when well backed behind Esta La Roca. He went to Sale 2^nd up on a heavy track and bolted in, sitting handy and never looking threatened to win by 2.75L, with big gaps back through the field. If we’re on another soft track he could just win this, because it’s a fairly thin race. Even on a good track, he’s clearly the horse to beat.

 

(2) Dynamic Duo is hard to line up, being a former Queensland galloper. He’s generally quite good first up and gets Kah on, who doesn’t often ride for the stable. That could mean he’s wound up and ready to go.

 

(7) Princess Flagrant hasn’t won in a long time but the run last start behind Elderflower is certainly good enough to win this.

 

(11) Teramia is the fresh horse with upside, only having had two starts. She won dominantly on debut before starting $3.50 against Splendoronthegrass and failing. The camp can often get them to fire fresh, and any market support would be scary.

 

Keen on Zipping Boy, especially on a wet track, so monitor conditions.

 

Tip: (5) Zipping Boy $3.10 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Zipping Boy

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Very tough. (12) Zion is the hardest horse to mark here, because if he’s recovered from last start and at his best, he’d be very hard to beat. He should have won at this T/D two back when given a poor ride behind Written Miss and Pioneer River, which clearly looks the best form. He started hard in the market behind Dickin Medal last start but pulled up with cardiac arrythmia, with that horse nearly favourite in the Manfred Stakes tomorrow. The market could tell us late, but I’m prepared to have him on top. A wet track is unknown, however Rubick progeny tend to handle it okay.

 

(3) Platini looks the danger. The win first up was good, albeit in a Yarra Glen class 1. He won his only 2^nd up start and has performed well on wet tracks in good company.

 

(6) La Bella Costa probably should’ve won here last start over 1100m when held up behind Ididitforlove who has won again since. She started $41 there which is the knock, but her win prior was good and she’s a mare in form that draws well out wide.

 

(4) Bones would appreciate a heavy track and has been very consistent without winning this prep. He gets Kah on from a nice draw and wouldn’t shock.

 

Tip: (12) Zion $5.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Zion

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Was keen on Wilmot Pass, who has been scratched this morning. Looking for value again and I think (9) Merchant Of Venice can run a race first up. 1200m is short of his best trip, but he’s proven on wet tracks and this could be the prep he delivers on some potential. First up last prep he rocketed home from an impossible position behind Challiot and Titan Blinders, off a very long break. Barrier two isn’t ideal but he should be charging late.

 

(11) Japery bolted in here over 1100m last start, getting a cheap run on speed before sprinting away to win by 4L. I’m not sure what to make of that given his form prior, whilst consistent, wasn’t nearly as good. He’s also never seen 1200m and I’m thinking he could rate down.

 

(12) That Girl was good here last start behind Ididitforlove and looks close to a win.

 

(8) Zoushack is racing well and a wet track won’t bother him at all.

 

Similar story for (1) Alburq who brings the best form, handles all tracks and likes the straight but has had ample opportunity to win one this prep and hasn’t.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a bigger price about Merchant Of Venice given his lack of 1200m form, but he can run a race fresh at double figures.

 

Tip: (9) Merchant Of Venice $13.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Merchant Of Venice

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(9) Wide Awake on top in the last. I liked the run first up behind Elderflower, running the 2^nd fastest last 600m of the day to finish 4^th. 2^nd up last prep she split Miss Divine Em and Miss Bosetti, her final 600m only bettered by Brooklyn Hustle over the same trip that day. She’s never been past 1100m but into her 3^rd prep now I think she’ll have no problems, and a wet track won’t worry her.

 

(12) My Best Effort gets Olly on for Waller and ran well down the straight last start behind Zesty Belle. She should handle any wet ground fine also.

 

(6) Sayumi is racing well and I think the straight could suit her, although a wet track would be an unknown.

 

(11) Storming The Seas didn’t have any luck last start but was well respected by the market in a handy race behind Diamonds Inthe Sky, who has won again since.

 

Tip: (9) Wide Awake $6.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Wide Awake