Canterbury Racing Tips: Friday, January 29th

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Happy to stick with (8) Larkspur Run on the back of a decent debut run. She started the race well out of the gates but couldn’t get an ideal spot, so Kerrin McEvoy just popped her into fifth off the fence. The leader was too far in front on the bend entering the straight for her to catch but he hit the line well whilst going through the line nicely in second, 3.5 lengths off the winner. I think it will be silly of them to go back from the wide gate at Canterbury on a wet track, so I expect them to push forward and play for luck or even head to the front. I hope they read this!

(7) Excela Bella is nominated for Saturday also, so if she doesn’t run here, the speed comes out of the race. Providing she races here; she could get an untested lead and she has already had two runs in her career before heading for a break. She will be fit first-up which is the stable norm and I think she has a better chance running here then Saturday.

(6) Sing A Love Song is another nominated for Saturday who will prefer racing in this race. He has had two runs this preparation for a fourth and third, both in Saturday grade races behind Remarque and Rocket Tiger, so this is a lot easier. Perfect draw to sit a bit closer should they choose and should handle the going.

Tip: (8) Larkspur Run $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

A tough little race which I believe is between two.

(2) Comporta goes on top for me here for the third time in her third start. Two back she was left flat footed in her first race start and went down 2.8 lengths to Virgo before heading to a midweek meeting at Warwick Farm where this time she led but was punished late by Shivani over 1400m. She took the jump from 1100m to 1400m well second-up and managed to beat the rest of the field by 3.8 lengths. She is drawn wide here and with James McDonald aboard, he should assess the situation well and head forward and ride for luck or lead to take away the bad luck. She should handle the step up to 1550m well and does look hard to beat.

(1) Kaptive is the other one. He was well beaten in two starts this preparation and naturally settles back which is going to make his task a touch harder. First-up he met April Rain and went down 3.8 lengths in second before heading to Wyong as a short priced favourite. He was beaten by 3.8 lengths there once again in second and had a task from the get-go. Although he is third-up, nothing indicates to me he will be winning this.

(4) Zudin is probably the best of the rest and one for exotics.

Tip: (2) Comporta $1.82 Sportsbetting

 Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Third-up here, (7) Impressive Lass can run quite a bold race. She tackled a heavy Gosford first-up and made some good headway late despite being beaten 1.2 lengths in fourth behind Expat. From that race, three horses have won the next start and In Flanders has placed twice. She then tackled Gosford again but this time on a good surface and hit the line really well to go down by half a length in second to Heart of Siena. She is drawn much better here and gets Kerrin McEvoy aboard which is good. She should be able to sit just off the leaders or even lead if they like with the little speed in this race and being fit on wet ground is going to be no disadvantage.

(6) Grenado may have to give ground to a couple of these from the draw but will be nice and fit regardless. James McDonald is back on though his past runs on wet ground have been a little less desirable. Maybe the drop back in distance might help.

(4) Rapids is the one I want to see return after being gelded. The relation to Groundswell and Shoals did little on debut before having a break and being gelded. His trial coming into this was plain but we shall see on race day how he returns.

Tip: (6) Grenado $3.00 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

This race is pretty interesting. I have put (6) Mubariz on top here after getting a bit too far back last start at Canterbury. That was his first go at 1900m, but he didn’t help his own cause, running keenly throughout before copping a bump around the 300m mark. He still hit the line superbly, finishing 1.1 lengths back in fifth. He will appreciate the quick back up, especially being on a wet track. He is drawn well to get into a nice position just off the pace and with Tommy Berry taking the reins once again, I expect him to be hitting the line well again.

(7) The Jungle Book has found a lease on life with Claire Cunningham and I expect him to run well again. He doesn’t mind the sting out of the ground but the query for me will be the tight Canterbury track. If he can handle the track, he will be hitting the line once again.

(2) Lando Bay looks to get into prime position on the quick back-up and will be in the finish once again. The ground won’t worry him and with Nash aboard, he will get every chance.

Tip: (6) Mubariz $4.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mubariz B3TSP

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Just the seven runners to go around here and although some speed maps will state there is a bit of pace here, I think it’s all one-way traffic for (2) Vreneli. I have mapped him to get an easy lead from barrier 5 and he has shown in the past he can handle the going. He is going for win number 3 this preparation after a solid all the way win at Warwick Farm last start. There is really only one other runner that could pose a threat to our top pick, so with some cheap sectionals, our bloke can kick away in the straight and be very hard to beat.

(8) Newsreader is coming back from a Gold Coast trip after breaking her maiden status in impressive fashion. The query I have with her is that she has only raced once on a track that was worse than a soft 5 and she finished 11.1 lengths in last. She has no weight here so if she is going to prove she can handle the sting well, she will have to do it here.

(7) Brazen Gem would be the best of the rest here.

Tip: (2) Vreneli $3.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Vreneli B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Going for one at each-way odds here in (5) Get The Idea. He dropped back in grade last start to a benchmark 68 at Kembla Grange where he faced plenty of issues in the straight and not getting clear until the final 100m or so where he really accelerated through the line. Although he is back up in grade, he gets a soft track to suit and a nice draw to be able to get a nice run throughout. He showed on his two starts prior that he can mix it with runners of this class on a wet track, so I expect a bold showing. He is over the odds and we will be playing on the each-way basis.

(4) Foxborough will hope the rains come thick and fast to improve her chances. Completely forget her last run as not much went right in the straight. She will likely head forward from the draw and be a chance in this race for a long way.

(7) Miss Redoble is a terrific each-way chance for your exotics.

Tip: (5) Get The Idea $12.00 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Get The Idea B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Another each-way bet here, and she shouldn’t be the odds she is. (2) Buckin’ Beauty is going to be at the right place at the right time thanks to her racing pattern. She was majorly outclassed last start at Rosehill, finishing fifth by 5.4 lengths. She steps back into a much more suitable grade and gets a wet track also which will give her an enhanced chance. She gets a nice 2kg claim from Chris Williams which brings her right into this and her record at Canterbury is sharp. This mare is a brilliant each-way bet late on the card.

(6) Born A Warrior is returning after a break off a preparation where they finally broke his maiden status. He has only had one trial coming into this, so I think he will be one run off being ready, but I could be wrong. He should be thereabouts, but I don’t expect him to win.

(7) Key Largo is in great form and I am expecting that form to continue here and for him to be flying late.

Tip: (2) Buckin’ Beauty $7.60 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Buckin’ Beauty B3TSP

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Landed with (7) Accelerato here but I do not have a lot of confidence. Last start at Warwick Farm is a total forgive run after racing wide without cover for the entire race and still managing to fight to finish 1.8 lengths back in fourth whilst still managing to beat the rest of the field by 2.3 lengths. He is fighting fit here and he generally relishes the sting out of the ground. He is drawn nicely and gets Avdulla back on which is a positive and I expect him to be in the finish.

(5) Sedition has been racing well and looks to keep up the recent success. He raced well enough to finish third last week at this track and won the start prior over this track and distance. Nash will no doubt give him a peach of a ride and with the sting out of the ground, he should once again be flying home.

(9) Revitup Rednut loves the wet tracks and meets (5) Sedition 4.5kg better off for the run. He loves the sting out of the ground and should be able to sit a touch closer from the draw. Definitely one for the exotics and quaddies.

Tip: (7) Accelerato $4.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet