Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, January 30th

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(1) Al Mah Haha is one of the best placed horses of the day at Rosehill. This is a horse who won the Goulburn Cup four starts ago, beating Chat and Handle The Truth (a Kosciusko winner) despite sitting three-wide the trip. He then raced in The Gong (where he once again sat wide), before finishing 2.3L off Greysful Glamour in the G2 Villiers Stakes. Last time out he struck a heavy track and now drops back massively in class to a Class 3 Highway Handicap. Carries top weight but surely proves too good for this lot.

(3) Toro Toro and (9) Proven Class both placed in Highways last start and can be competitive.

Tip: (1) Al Mah Haha $1.90 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Al Mah Haha

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

The two-year-old fillies do battle here in the Widden Stakes.

(1) Mallory ran 2^nd to Enthaar in the Gimcrack which obviously looks the supreme formline for the juveniles at this stage. She ran home well from the back of the field on that occasion, and if she repeats that sort of run she’ll take plenty of beating here. She does look short enough at $2.50 though.

I’m very interested to see how (7) Northuldra lines up for Tommy Berry and Annabel Neasham. Berry jumps off one of the Waterhouse/Bott horses to ride her, though he does the bulk of the riding for the stable. Drawn barrier 1, she should get a gun run throughout and at $11, she catches my interest.

(2) Vianello is the race-fit horse and draws well in 3.

Tip: (7) Northuldra $11.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Northuldra

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Tipping the Canonbury Stakes for the two-year-old colts and geldings to be dominated by Chris Waller.

(9) Home Affairs won his trial easily with Sam Clipperton aboard, coasting home by 2L. James McDonald goes straight on for race day, indicating it’s probably the stable’s top seed. Draws well in barrier 5 and looks hard to beat.

Sam Clipperton instead picks up the ride on the stablemate (8) Giannis and this horse was subject to market support as soon as markets opened. He opened $15 and was straight into about $8.00. Both trials have been good and when there’s smoke, there’s normally fire with this stable so I’ll be taking that into account.

(3) Construct has the run on the board, finishing 2^nd to subsequent Magic Millions winner Shaquero. Has had two trials to prepare him for his resumption today and draws well in barrier 2.

Don’t be surprised to see (11) Surplus Value run a race at $51.

Tip: (9) Home Affairs $3.30 TAB

Value: (8) Giannis $8.00 TopSport

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Home Affairs, 0.5 units WIN Giannis

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(8) Great House made an encouraging Australian debut at Flemington over 1600m when working home to finish 3^rd behind Hasseltoff. This is a horse that debuted over 1900m before winning his maiden over 2400m, so the step up to 2000m is definitely a major positive. Tommy Berry takes the ride at 53.5kg and he should be very hard to beat.

(2) Word For Word is ready to win now with JMac back on from barrier 4. Her first two runs of the prep were good before pulling up with a slow recovery last start.

(7) California Longbow won at this stage last preparation and gets the blinkers on again today with Nash Rawiller booked to ride. All signs point to a big run.

Chances don’t end there.

Tip: (8) Great House $3.20 TAB

Value: (2) Word For Word $7.50 TAB

Betting strategy: 1.25 units WIN Great House, 0.5 units WIN Word For Word

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

This is one of the more open races on the card. (6) Marsannay has been good without much going right in his first two runs back this preparation. First up he drew wide and came from near last to run 3^rd behind Forbidden Love, and then last start he sat three-wide the trip on speed when running 3^rd to Yao Dash at the Gold Coast. With even luck, he will take some beating today.

(4) Oscar Zulu is another that returns from Queensland, having run 3^rd to Apache Chase in a G3 last start. That followed a first up win in this grade at this track. Drawn ideally and should be very competitive.

(1) Starla is a bridesmaid with 12 placings from 24 starts. She carries top weight here but does drop back to a BM72 having run in BM88 and BM78 company all prep. Her best racing might be done on firm ground but she has to be an each way chance here.

(11) Shaik started $2.30 last start but could only manage 3^rd.

Tip: (6) Marsannay $3.65 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

I missed the early price with $18 bet early, but (12) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster is my best value bet of the day with $8.00 still available. He will relish the track conditions today. He’s yet to win from 12 starts on good ground but he has three wins from four starts on soft tracks, including two starts ago over this distance at Randwick. He’s never finished out of the top two over 1400m and this is the sort of race he can be very competitive in.

(2) Ulysees has had five runs this prep and has’t finished further back than 1.3L off the winner, which includes two wins of his own. He should lead from the inside and will run his usual honest race.

(4) Starspangled Rodeo gets JMac on for Bjorn Baker. He went back to last first up and ran home strongly to be beaten less than 2L. Expect a more positive ride today and it won’t be any shock to see him right in the finish.

Tip: (12) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster $8.00 TopSport

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Bluff ‘N’ Bluster

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

No surprise to see (9) Ole Kirk on the drift here. He might just find the 1200m a touch sharp first up from a spell. That’s not to say he can’t win, but I expect he’ll continue to drift.

(6) Flit appears slightly underrated to my eye. She’s normally sharp over 1200m and has won fresh at this distance on soft ground in the past. The gate is slightly awkward but against a few horses who may be unsuited at the distance, she seems to be flying under the radar at each way odds.

(2) Star Of The Seas is versatile and adaptable and did win first up over 1100m on soft ground two preps back. He loves the wet and has finished in the top two in five of his six starts when first up from a spell. He has to be a betting proposition at $6.00.

(5) Savatiano has a phenomenal first up record with five wins from eight starts and she handles soft ground, but 1200m is an interesting distance for her. She resumed with a Group 2 win at 1400m first up last prep, but whether she is as good at 1200m is the small query.

Tip: (6) Flit $8.10 Sportsbetting

Also backing: (2) Star Of The Seas $6.10 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Flit, 0.5 units WIN Star Of The Seas

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(10) Brutality must be some sort of chance here with the track predicted to be wet. He’s never won from five starts on good ground but has three wins and three placings from seven starts on wet ground. Two starts back on a wet track he came from last to be beaten less than a length. He gets the blinkers back on today, carries 52.5kg and should relish the track conditions. Over the odds at $12.

(2) Mount Popa is the huge X-factor horse here. He was very firm in betting first up last prep on his Australian debut, where he bounded at the start and was still only beaten 1.25L. He then stepped straight up to 2000m and bolted in. He’s only had one trial after a 33-week break but it wouldn’t shock me to see him just come out and win this.

(5) Betcha Flying is flying and gets barrier 1 which should suit her. Goes well in the wet and can’t be dismissed off her past three runs.

(1) Frosty Rocks drops back in grade and looks the horse to beat.

Tip: (10) Brutality $12 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Brutality

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

I feel like this is déjà vu from last preparation and it didn’t end well on that occasion, but I’ve made (7) Masked Crusader my best of the day. I’m not convinced they went all out to win first up last prep on the heavy track, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him ridden far more aggressively today, just as he was in his recent trial. That was a superb bit of work, where he went straight to the front and cruised home by 2L under a hold. If the track were to get to the heavy range it would be some concern, but I think he’s much better than a BM88 horse and I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t the winner here.

(2) Albumin has been good in two starts back from a spell and can be included at big odds. He’s currently a $26 chance which looks over the odds.

(3) Big Parade loves the soft ground and is racing well. He was beaten by King Of Hastings and Bandersnatch last start, with the 2^nd horse since coming out and winning to frank the form.

(5) Mo’s Crown loves the wet and gets the bar plates off and JMac on, so has to be watched very closely here.

Tip: (5) Mo’s Crown $4.40 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mo’s Crown