The build up to the Sydney Autumn carnival heats up at Rosehill this Saturday as a host of elite horses resume in the day’s feature, the Group 2 Expressway Stakes.
The two-year-old features see the fillies do battle in the Group 3 Widden Stakes, while the colts and geldings line up in the Group 3 Canonbury Stakes.
Tim Geers has provided his preview and betting tips for all nine races below, with his best bet coming up in the Canonbury Stakes, and his best value bet lining up in Race 6.
Best Bet: Race 3 – (9) Home Affairs
Best Value: Race 6 – (12) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster
Race 1
Tab Highway Plate (C3) (1500m)
1:15pm (AEDT)
Race 1Tab Highway Plate (C3) (1500m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Al Mah Haha
J: Jay Ford (59kg)
T: Tash Burleigh |
1.9 | 1.95 | 1.94 | 1.9 | ||
2. Lord Heron
J: Robbie Dolan (59kg)
T: Allan Kehoe |
23 | 21 | 24 | 23 | ||
3. Toro Toro
J: Tom Sherry (59kg)
T: S C Jones |
9.5 | 11 | 10.6 | 11 | ||
4. Loafing
J: Nash Rawiller (59kg)
T: K R Dryden |
21 | 26 | 21.5 | 21 | ||
5. Rich And Shameless
J: Chris Williams (59kg)
T: S I Singleton |
||||||
6. War Deck
J: Hugh Bowman (59kg)
T: John Bateman |
||||||
7. Baileys
J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg)
T: G L Payne |
||||||
8. Sebago
J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg)
T: Matthew Dale |
||||||
9. Proven Class
J: Ms Winona Costin (57kg)
T: James Ponsonby |
6.5 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 6 | ||
10. Timerox
J: Ms Rachel King (56kg)
T: Melanie O'gorman |
||||||
11. Propose A Toast
J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg)
T: N E Layt |
13 | 13 | 12 | 13 | ||
12. Perfect Pitch
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg)
T: K R Dryden |
7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | ||
13. Dancing Dollar
J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg)
T: Sam Kavanagh |
23 | 31 | 25.5 | 23 | ||
14. If You Think So
J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg)
T: J A Sylvester |
27 | 31 | 29 | 34 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
(1) Al Mah Haha is one of the best placed horses of the day at Rosehill. This is a horse who won the Goulburn Cup four starts ago, beating Chat and Handle The Truth (a Kosciusko winner) despite sitting three-wide the trip. He then raced in The Gong (where he once again sat wide), before finishing 2.3L off Greysful Glamour in the G2 Villiers Stakes. Last time out he struck a heavy track and now drops back massively in class to a Class 3 Highway Handicap. Carries top weight but surely proves too good for this lot.
(3) Toro Toro and (9) Proven Class both placed in Highways last start and can be competitive.
Tip: (1) Al Mah Haha $1.90 Sportsbetting
Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Al Mah Haha
Race 2
Widden Stakes (1100m)
1:50pm (AEDT)
Race 2Widden Stakes (1100m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Mallory
J: Jason Collett (54.5kg)
T: G Ryan & S Alexiou |
4.2 | 4.2 | 4.45 | 3.9 | ||
2. Vianello
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
3.6 | 3.7 | 3.75 | 3.8 | ||
3. Total Babe
J: Tim Clark (54.5kg)
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott |
3.9 | 4 | 4.05 | 4 | ||
4. Excela Bella
J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg)
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott |
14 | 15 | 13.8 | 15 | ||
5. Divina
J: James Mcdonald (54.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
||||||
6. Mikasa
J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg)
T: John Thompson |
21 | 21 | 18.2 | 23 | ||
7. Northuldra
J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg)
T: Annabel Neasham |
7 | 7 | 7.1 | 7 | ||
8. Zentime
J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg)
T: Mark Newnham |
11 | 12 | 10.6 | 11 | ||
9. Perfect Darling
J: Regan Bayliss (54.5kg)
T: J G Sargent |
26 | 26 | 26 | 31 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
The two-year-old fillies do battle here in the Widden Stakes.
(1) Mallory ran 2nd to Enthaar in the Gimcrack which obviously looks the supreme formline for the juveniles at this stage. She ran home well from the back of the field on that occasion, and if she repeats that sort of run she’ll take plenty of beating here. She does look short enough at $2.50 though.
I’m very interested to see how (7) Northuldra lines up for Tommy Berry and Annabel Neasham. Berry jumps off one of the Waterhouse/Bott horses to ride her, though he does the bulk of the riding for the stable. Drawn barrier 1, she should get a gun run throughout and at $11, she catches my interest.
(2) Vianello is the race-fit horse and draws well in 3.
Tip: (7) Northuldra $11.20 Sportsbetting
Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Northuldra
Race 3
Canonbury Stakes (1100m)
2:25pm (AEDT)
Race 3Canonbury Stakes (1100m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Readily Availabull
J: Regan Bayliss (57.5kg)
T: J G Sargent |
10 | 11 | 12.4 | 10 | ||
2. Conexy
J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
||||||
3. Construct
J: Jason Collett (54.5kg)
T: P & P Snowden |
||||||
4. Zethus
J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
6.5 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 5.5 | ||
5. Sing A Love Song
J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg)
T: J A O'shea |
12 | 12 | 12.6 | 13 | ||
6. Montana Flash
J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg)
T: M, W & J Hawkes |
20 | 21 | 20 | 21 | ||
7. Bullpen
J: Tim Clark (54.5kg)
T: P & P Snowden |
18 | 19 | 18.2 | 18 | ||
8. Giannis
J: Sam Clipperton (54.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
6.5 | 7 | 6.7 | 7 | ||
9. Home Affairs
J: James Mcdonald (54.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
2.45 | 2.5 | 2.45 | 2.5 | ||
10. Retrieval
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
||||||
11. Surplus Value
J: Robbie Dolan (54.5kg)
T: Annabel Neasham |
6.5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
Tipping the Canonbury Stakes for the two-year-old colts and geldings to be dominated by Chris Waller.
(9) Home Affairs won his trial easily with Sam Clipperton aboard, coasting home by 2L. James McDonald goes straight on for race day, indicating it’s probably the stable’s top seed. Draws well in barrier 5 and looks hard to beat.
Sam Clipperton instead picks up the ride on the stablemate (8) Giannis and this horse was subject to market support as soon as markets opened. He opened $15 and was straight into about $8.00. Both trials have been good and when there’s smoke, there’s normally fire with this stable so I’ll be taking that into account.
(3) Construct has the run on the board, finishing 2nd to subsequent Magic Millions winner Shaquero. Has had two trials to prepare him for his resumption today and draws well in barrier 2.
Don’t be surprised to see (11) Surplus Value run a race at $51.
Tip: (9) Home Affairs $3.30 TAB
Value: (8) Giannis $8.00 TopSport
Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Home Affairs, 0.5 units WIN Giannis
Race 4
Anz Bloodstock News (Bm78) (2000m)
3:00pm (AEDT)
Race 4Anz Bloodstock News (Bm78) (2000m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Vadiyann
J: Sam Clipperton (61kg)
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott |
6 | 6 | 6.6 | 6 | ||
2. Word For Word
J: James Mcdonald (60kg)
T: C J Waller |
5.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 6 | ||
3. Harpo Marx
J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
7 | 7 | 7.3 | 7 | ||
4. On The White Turf
J: Chris Williams (58kg)
T: R & M Freedman |
12 | 12 | 12.2 | 12 | ||
5. Amoretti
J: Tom Sherry (57.5kg)
T: G Portelli |
||||||
6. Tochi
J: Jason Collett (56kg)
T: R & L Price |
||||||
7. California Longbow
J: Nash Rawiller (56kg)
T: P & P Snowden |
||||||
8. Great House
J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
2.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ||
9. Shadow Girl
J: Jay Ford (53kg)
T: A J Cummings |
41 | 41 | 38 | 41 | ||
10. My Demetra
J: Robbie Dolan (52.5kg)
T: P & P Snowden |
7 | 7 | 6.6 | 7.5 | ||
11. First Courrier
J: Ms Kathy O'hara (52.5kg)
T: R & L Price |
18 | 18 | 20.5 | 18 | ||
12. Animalia
J: Ms Winona Costin (52kg)
T: Matthew Dale |
34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
(8) Great House made an encouraging Australian debut at Flemington over 1600m when working home to finish 3rd behind Hasseltoff. This is a horse that debuted over 1900m before winning his maiden over 2400m, so the step up to 2000m is definitely a major positive. Tommy Berry takes the ride at 53.5kg and he should be very hard to beat.
(2) Word For Word is ready to win now with JMac back on from barrier 4. Her first two runs of the prep were good before pulling up with a slow recovery last start.
(7) California Longbow won at this stage last preparation and gets the blinkers on again today with Nash Rawiller booked to ride. All signs point to a big run.
Chances don’t end there.
Tip: (8) Great House $3.20 TAB
Value: (2) Word For Word $7.50 TAB
Betting strategy: 1.25 units WIN Great House, 0.5 units WIN Word For Word
Race 5
Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm72) (1400m)
3:40pm (AEDT)
Race 5Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm72) (1400m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Starla
J: James Mcdonald (60kg)
T: C J Waller |
||||||
2. Matowatakpe
J: Joshua Parr (59.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
||||||
3. Bluff 'N' Bluster
J: Unknown (58kg)
T: J C Coyle |
||||||
4. Oscar Zulu
J: Jason Collett (57.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
6.5 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6 | ||
5. Derbari
J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg)
T: Joseph Pride |
7 | 7 | 7.1 | 7 | ||
6. Marsannay
J: Tim Clark (56.5kg)
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott |
2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ||
7. Tycoonist
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
11 | 11 | 11.2 | 10 | ||
8. Street Dancer
J: Regan Bayliss (56kg)
T: A J Cummings |
31 | 34 | 35 | 34 | ||
9. Bazooka
J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg)
T: David Payne |
10 | 10 | 9.7 | 10 | ||
10. Return With Honour
J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg)
T: Annabel Neasham |
||||||
11. Shaik
J: Tommy Berry (55kg)
T: M, W & J Hawkes |
3.6 | 3.7 | 3.65 | 3.9 | ||
12. Brazen Gem
J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
This is one of the more open races on the card. (6) Marsannay has been good without much going right in his first two runs back this preparation. First up he drew wide and came from near last to run 3rd behind Forbidden Love, and then last start he sat three-wide the trip on speed when running 3rd to Yao Dash at the Gold Coast. With even luck, he will take some beating today.
(4) Oscar Zulu is another that returns from Queensland, having run 3rd to Apache Chase in a G3 last start. That followed a first up win in this grade at this track. Drawn ideally and should be very competitive.
(1) Starla is a bridesmaid with 12 placings from 24 starts. She carries top weight here but does drop back to a BM72 having run in BM88 and BM78 company all prep. Her best racing might be done on firm ground but she has to be an each way chance here.
(11) Shaik started $2.30 last start but could only manage 3rd.
Tip: (6) Marsannay $3.65 Sportsbetting
Betting strategy: No bet
Race 6
Schweppes (Bm78) (1400m)
4:20pm (AEDT)
Race 6Schweppes (Bm78) (1400m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Cognac
J: Tommy Berry (60kg)
T: R & M Freedman |
7.5 | 8 | 7.7 | 8 | ||
2. Ulysses
J: Chris Williams (60kg)
T: R & M Freedman |
||||||
3. Juventus
J: Hugh Bowman (59.5kg)
T: K A Lees |
||||||
4. Starspangled Rodeo
J: James Mcdonald (59.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
||||||
5. Canasta
J: Joshua Parr (58kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
5.5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.5 | ||
6. Charretera
J: Tom Sherry (57.5kg)
T: P & P Snowden |
4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ||
7. Cuban Royale
J: Jay Ford (57.5kg)
T: R & L Price |
12 | 13 | 13.2 | 13 | ||
8. Off Shaw
J: Tim Clark (57.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
||||||
9. Moana Jewel
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg)
T: T J Bartley |
7 | 7 | 7.1 | 6.5 | ||
10. General Soho
J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg)
T: P M Perry |
7.5 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.5 | ||
11. Matowatakpe
J: Jason Collett (56.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
||||||
12. Bluff 'N' Bluster
J: Ms Rachel King (55kg)
T: J C Coyle |
3.7 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 4 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
I missed the early price with $18 bet early, but (12) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster is my best value bet of the day with $8.00 still available. He will relish the track conditions today. He’s yet to win from 12 starts on good ground but he has three wins from four starts on soft tracks, including two starts ago over this distance at Randwick. He’s never finished out of the top two over 1400m and this is the sort of race he can be very competitive in.
(2) Ulysees has had five runs this prep and has’t finished further back than 1.3L off the winner, which includes two wins of his own. He should lead from the inside and will run his usual honest race.
(4) Starspangled Rodeo gets JMac on for Bjorn Baker. He went back to last first up and ran home strongly to be beaten less than 2L. Expect a more positive ride today and it won’t be any shock to see him right in the finish.
Tip: (12) Bluff ‘N’ Bluster $8.00 TopSport
Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Bluff ‘N’ Bluster
Race 7
Iron Jack Expressway Stakes (1200m)
5:00pm (AEDT)
Race 7Iron Jack Expressway Stakes (1200m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Kolding
J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
9 | 9 | 8.5 | 8 | ||
2. Star Of The Seas
J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 | ||
3. Standout
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58.5kg)
T: G Ryan & S Alexiou |
||||||
4. Southern Lad
J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg)
T: J A O'shea |
||||||
5. Savatiano
J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
2.05 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.1 | ||
6. Flit
J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
4.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | ||
7. Mizzy
J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg)
T: A J Cummings |
9.5 | 10 | 9.6 | 10 | ||
8. Emeralds
J: Jason Collett (56.5kg)
T: J G Sargent |
23 | 19 | 26.5 | 19 | ||
9. Ole Kirk
J: Tommy Berry (55kg)
T: M, W & J Hawkes |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
No surprise to see (9) Ole Kirk on the drift here. He might just find the 1200m a touch sharp first up from a spell. That’s not to say he can’t win, but I expect he’ll continue to drift.
(6) Flit appears slightly underrated to my eye. She’s normally sharp over 1200m and has won fresh at this distance on soft ground in the past. The gate is slightly awkward but against a few horses who may be unsuited at the distance, she seems to be flying under the radar at each way odds.
(2) Star Of The Seas is versatile and adaptable and did win first up over 1100m on soft ground two preps back. He loves the wet and has finished in the top two in five of his six starts when first up from a spell. He has to be a betting proposition at $6.00.
(5) Savatiano has a phenomenal first up record with five wins from eight starts and she handles soft ground, but 1200m is an interesting distance for her. She resumed with a Group 2 win at 1400m first up last prep, but whether she is as good at 1200m is the small query.
Tip: (6) Flit $8.10 Sportsbetting
Also backing: (2) Star Of The Seas $6.10 Sportsbetting
Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Flit, 0.5 units WIN Star Of The Seas
Race 8
Sky Racing Active (Bm88) (1500m)
5:40pm (AEDT)
Race 8Sky Racing Active (Bm88) (1500m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Frosty Rocks
J: Tom Sherry (60kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
3.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | ||
2. Mount Popa
J: Tommy Berry (59kg)
T: M, W & J Hawkes |
||||||
3. True Detective
J: James Mcdonald (58kg)
T: C J Waller |
7.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.5 | ||
4. Yonkers
J: Hugh Bowman (58kg)
T: C J Waller |
10 | 12 | 11.2 | 11 | ||
5. Betcha Flying
J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
T: C J Waller |
4.4 | 4.4 | 4.35 | 4.4 | ||
6. Mccormack
J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55kg)
T: T J Bartley |
23 | 21 | 23.5 | 23 | ||
7. Ulysses
J: Ms Rachel King (55kg)
T: R & M Freedman |
||||||
8. Starspangled Rodeo
J: Tim Clark (54.5kg)
T: Bjorn Baker |
||||||
9. Pandano
J: Jay Ford (53kg)
T: P M Perry |
14 | 15 | 15.2 | 15 | ||
10. Brutality
J: James Innes Jnr (52.5kg)
T: Joseph Pride |
7.5 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 7.5 | ||
11. Above And Beyond
J: Robbie Dolan (52kg)
T: G Portelli |
7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.5 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
(10) Brutality must be some sort of chance here with the track predicted to be wet. He’s never won from five starts on good ground but has three wins and three placings from seven starts on wet ground. Two starts back on a wet track he came from last to be beaten less than a length. He gets the blinkers back on today, carries 52.5kg and should relish the track conditions. Over the odds at $12.
(2) Mount Popa is the huge X-factor horse here. He was very firm in betting first up last prep on his Australian debut, where he bounded at the start and was still only beaten 1.25L. He then stepped straight up to 2000m and bolted in. He’s only had one trial after a 33-week break but it wouldn’t shock me to see him just come out and win this.
(5) Betcha Flying is flying and gets barrier 1 which should suit her. Goes well in the wet and can’t be dismissed off her past three runs.
(1) Frosty Rocks drops back in grade and looks the horse to beat.
Tip: (10) Brutality $12 Bet365
Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Brutality
Race 9
50 Years Atc Members (Bm88) (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)
Race 950 Years Atc Members (Bm88) (1200m) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. Southern Lad
J: Chris Williams (62kg)
T: J A O'shea |
12 | 12 | 11.8 | 11 | ||
2. Albumin
J: Jay Ford (59.5kg)
T: G Ryan & S Alexiou |
||||||
3. Big Parade
J: Joshua Parr (59kg)
T: Mark Newnham |
2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||
4. Tahitian Dancer
J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg)
T: Joseph Pride |
35 | 34 | 41 | 41 | ||
5. Mo's Crown
J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg)
T: J C Coyle |
4 | 4.4 | 4 | 4.4 | ||
6. Handspun
J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
23 | 20 | 27.5 | 21 | ||
7. Masked Crusader
J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
T: M, W & J Hawkes |
||||||
8. Thermosphere
J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg)
T: James Cummings |
7.5 | 8 | 8.1 | 8 | ||
9. Somals
J: Unknown (54kg)
T: Cody Morgan |
||||||
10. Lillemor
J: Ms Rachel King (53.5kg)
T: J A O'shea |
5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | ||
11. I'm Telling Ya
J: Robbie Dolan (52kg)
T: Amy & Ash Yargi |
12 | 14 | 12.4 | 13 |
Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)
I feel like this is déjà vu from last preparation and it didn’t end well on that occasion, but I’ve made (7) Masked Crusader my best of the day. I’m not convinced they went all out to win first up last prep on the heavy track, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him ridden far more aggressively today, just as he was in his recent trial. That was a superb bit of work, where he went straight to the front and cruised home by 2L under a hold. If the track were to get to the heavy range it would be some concern, but I think he’s much better than a BM88 horse and I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t the winner here.
(2) Albumin has been good in two starts back from a spell and can be included at big odds. He’s currently a $26 chance which looks over the odds.
(3) Big Parade loves the soft ground and is racing well. He was beaten by King Of Hastings and Bandersnatch last start, with the 2nd horse since coming out and winning to frank the form.
(5) Mo’s Crown loves the wet and gets the bar plates off and JMac on, so has to be watched very closely here.
Tip: (5) Mo’s Crown $4.40 Ladbrokes
Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mo’s Crown
Racing Tips
Sha Tin Racing Tips: Sunday, May 15th
Feature Races
2022 Doomben 10,000 Runner-by-Runner Preview & Tips
Racing Tips
Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Saturday, May 14th
