Connect with us

Racing Tips

Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 18th

Racing at Flemington on Saturday and Trent Crebbin has previewed every race in depth.

Melbourne Cup Day Flemington

Racing at Flemington again this Saturday for a competitive card.

Trent Crebbin has done the form for every race and his best bet is currently $5.00.

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 3 metres.

Best Bet- Race 6 (1) Blazejowski

Best Value- Race 3 (4) Blenheim Palace

TAB Sky Racing

205121

Race 1

Tab Trophy (Bm70) (1400m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tab Trophy (Bm70) (1400m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

1. Luna Cat (1) J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
3.63.73.75
2. Lavish Girl (7) J: Teodore Nugent (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.53.73.6
3. Destiny Diamond (3) J: Joe Bowditch (56.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
121212.2
4. Honeycreeper (2) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
3.43.43.35
5. Lady Adelaide (4) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
6. Allegretta (6) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: Peter Moody
7. Charm And Disarm (9) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: L Smith
131314
8. Seonee (5) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Patrick Payne
9. Jenniferenti (8) J: Jye Mcneil (54.5kg) T: E Jusufovic
7.57.57

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 12:42pm (AEDT)

Going with the NSW visitor in (4) Honeycreeper in the opener. She didn’t have much luck at Warwick Farm first up from an inside gate, held up for half the straight before being forced back to the inside. She got through the line well and can only be fitter. Drawn soft at 1400m with Olly on looks a good recipe against a few exposed fillies.

(1) Luna Cat was dominant at The Valley last start. She had a nice trail but sustained a run and powered away. Not sure she beat much but 1400m should be no issue.

(2) Lavish Girl has been solid her last two at 1400m in listed races but her last race wasn’t much different ability wise to this and she’s had her chances.

(8) Seonee has started heavily odds on at both runs this prep. She was too good with a gap to 3rd to break her maiden last start, with the 2nd horse winning her maiden easily next time out. She’s a big threat.

 

Tip: (4) Honeycreeper- $4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Honeycreeper

205121

Race 2

Lexus Holiday Plate (Bm70) (1200m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Lexus Holiday Plate (Bm70) (1200m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

1. Brother's Shadow (3) J: Jamie Mott (60kg) T: Travis Doudle
2. Squid Game (6) J: Michael Dee (57.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
22.052.05
3. Umgawa (8) J: Ethan Brown (57.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
171919.2
4. Crystal Vain (4) J: Damien Thornton (57kg) T: M J Ellerton
10109.1
5. Kyokushin (2) J: Ms Alana Kelly (57kg) T: G A Osborne
182121.5
6. Murrami Express (5) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: D T O'brien
5.55.55.2
7. Capo Strada (1) J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
5.55.55
8. Media Empire (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
121313.2

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 1:22pm (AEDT)

(1) Squid Game was a soft winner of a strong form maiden on debut. He sat outside the leader and was nursed along, winning hands and heels. He’s had a soft jumpout in between runs.

(7) Capo Strada won well first up to break his maiden before an even effort in a fairly deep race at Canterbury last start. Barrier 1 down the straight will be interesting.

(6) Murrami Express was good in some strong races last prep. He’s got early speed and has jumped out well for the new stable.

Tip: (1) Squid Game- $2.70 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Squid Game

205121

Race 3

Schweppervescence (Bm100) (2600m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Schweppervescence (Bm100) (2600m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

1. Future Score (4) J: Dean Yendall (58kg) T: Matthew Cumani
786.7
2. In A Twinkling (6) J: Jarrod Fry (58kg) T: L Smith
3. Double You Tee (9) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
141512.8
4. Blenheim Palace (8) J: Craig Robertson (55.5kg) T: Simon Ryan
171916.4
5. Long Arm (2) J: Craig Newitt (53.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
554.55
6. High Emocean (1) J: Josh Richards (53kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.93.83.95
7. Fanciful Toff (5) J: Daniel Moor (53kg) T: Matthew Cumani
182121.5
8. Skelm (7) J: Michael Poy (53kg) T: T D Kelly
4.655.1
9. Wyclif (3) J: Jye Mcneil (53kg) T: D T O'brien
5.55.55.8

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 1:57pm (AEDT)

(4) Blenheim Palace looks a bit of value here. I backed him at odds last start in the Werribee Cup and he ran well, boxing on behind a strong tempo. He was only 2nd up for the new stable there and might be ready to show his best in Australia, because his overseas form would win this.

(6) High Emocean was poor last start in the St Leger at Randwick but was good in the Ansett Classic prior. She can mix her form a bit but if she turns up at her best with 51kg she’ll be very hard to hold out.

(5) Long Arm is slowly working himself into form, okay two back over 2800m but a good run in the Pakenham Cup last start, beaten 4.7L by Smokin’ Romans.

(9) Wyclif should be ready now 3rd up but might need one more at the long trip.

Tip: (4) Blenheim Palace- $21.00/4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Blenheim Palace

205121

Race 4

Rubaroc (Bm70) (1200m)
2:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Rubaroc (Bm70) (1200m)
2:30pm (AEDT)

1. Dunbrody Power (7) J: Campbell Rawiller (62.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
91010
2. Iknewshewasmine (6) J: Josh Richards (60kg) T: Jerome Hunter
314140
3. Dee Keepa (11) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: L Smith
151515.6
4. Lady D'oro (13) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
5.566
5. Enigma (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
6.56.56.9
6. Starden Lass (4) J: Ms Alana Kelly (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
101010.6
7. Rose Quartz (2) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: G M Begg
43.83.9
8. Gloves Are Off (10) J: Jake Noonan (58kg) T: K Hann
9. Madam Superior (5) J: Jason Maskiell (58kg) T: M Cornish & Ms D Gaskin
212618.4
10. Queen Zyrah (3) J: Joe Bowditch (57kg) T: Symon Wilde
11. Wegobam (12) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: L & T Corstens
4.854.45
12. Roma's Wish (9) J: (56.5kg) T: Leanne Doyle
13. Martini Special (1) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Jerome Hunter
212120.5

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 2:32pm (AEDT)

(6) Starden Lass is racing well, her last two especially. She’s up in grade but gets some weight relief.

(5) Enigma has won her last two nicely. She has to extend to 1200m but drops 4kg and gets Kah on.

(3) Dee Keepa was poor last start when well respected in the market. Perhaps the quick backup was to blame there. She was good over 1400m the start prior.

(7) Rose Quartz next best.

Not much would shock here.

Tip: (5) Enigma- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

205121

Race 5

Myer Giftorium (Bm70) (1400m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Myer Giftorium (Bm70) (1400m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

1. Dirty Deeds (3) J: Ms Alana Kelly (61.5kg) T: Simon Zahra
161816.2
2. Nordic (4) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: M D Moroney
131612.8
3. Garimpeiro (13) J: Craig Newitt (60kg) T: L Smith
414143
4. Litchfield County (9) J: Luke Currie (60kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
212118
5. Savannah Cloud (5) J: Zac Spain (60kg) T: P Stokes
3.43.43.35
6. Visinari (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (60kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
7. High Cost (10) J: Rhys Mcleod (59.5kg) T: Andrew Homann
151101161
8. Dimaggio (1) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: K L Corstens
314135
9. Basarwa (2) J: Brett Prebble (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
76.56.2
10. Comte (7) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
616167
11. Mrs Sippy (14) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
161918.8
12. Gentleman Roy (12) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
555.1
13. Standoff (11) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: G & P Dalziel
14. Way To Go Paula (6) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: P Stokes
4.84.85.1

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 3:07pm (AEDT)

(5) Savannah Cloud looked in strife on the turn last start at The Valley but found another gear to win fairly comfortably. His only run at 1400m was in a Guineas Prelude when very well backed and beaten 3.3L by Crosshaven. I think he’s looking for the trip now and he gets a soft run.

(12) Gentleman Roy was well backed first up and won well in good time. 2nd up last prep (off a placing to Ayrton) he started $1.95 and was okay behind Mahashakti. He draws wide here but should be respected.

(13) Standoff saves her best for this T/D. Her run in the grey’s bm90 here was very good and she arguably wins with clear air earlier. Her win at this T/D last prep was excellent and she’s a big price here.

(14) Way To Go Paula had excuses after racing wide at Pakenham, fading over the last 100m. Her run behind Duchess Of Dorset two back was good from a long way back.

Backing Savannah Cloud with the map advantage and getting to 1400m, small result Gentleman R0y

Tip: (5) Savannah Cloud- $3.80 at TAB

Also Backing: (12) Gentleman Roy- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Savannah Cloud, 0.5 units WIN Gentleman Roy

205121

Race 6

Kennedy Hcp (1400m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Kennedy Hcp (1400m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

1. Blazejowski (2) J: Josh Richards (58.5kg) T: G Eurell
4.85.55.6
2. Odeon (5) J: Jamie Mott (57kg) T: Simon Zahra
111210.2
3. Mask Of Time (6) J: John Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
616147
4. Tavidance (7) J: Damien Oliver (55kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
6.576.6
5. Second Slip (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54.5kg) T: Will Clarken
2.42.352.45
6. Open Minded (8) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: A & S Freedman
8.58.57.3
7. Yes Baby Yes (9) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (54kg) T: L & T Corstens
212121.5
8. Neighbourhood (3) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: E Jusufovic
10119.9
9. Guizot (1) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: Aaron Purcell
414135

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 3:42pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with (1) Blazejowski here who ticks a lot of boxes. He’s got an excellent 3rd up record with 3 wins from 4 starts, and he also races very well over this T/D, including a group 3 win over Age Of Chivalry and Morvada. He was solid over an unsuitable 1000m fresh before working home well with 59kg at Pakenham last start. He gets in well after the claim with 56.5kg and just needs a touch of luck from barrier 2.

(8) Neighbourhood was good in the same race weaving through traffic. She did a bit wrong there and the winkers come off. She’s run well over 1400m and might be ready to do something.

(5) Second Slip has been mixing distances, taking on the Toorak three runs back in a solid effort, before failing in the Gawler Cup and then being freshened back to 1200m last start running okay after settling midfield in a busy finish. Not sure what to make of him here after an awkward prep, but at his best he’d be hard to get past.

(4) Tavidance is a horse I have plenty of time for but is a risk here. He was good here first up on a track with a bit of give in it before pulling up with EIPH in the Sale Cup. He’s won a 1200m jumpout under no riding since but we could be on a good 3 in the hot conditions and that’s a big query for him despite his talent.

Tip: (1) Blazejowski- $5.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (8) Neighbourhood- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Blazejowski, 0.25 units WIN Neighbourhood

205121

Race 7

Furphy Festive Sprint (Bm84) (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Furphy Festive Sprint (Bm84) (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. More Than Exceed (7) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (64.5kg) T: P Stokes
345139
2. Zipping Boy (3) J: Matthew Cartwright (62kg) T: Jerome Hunter
314136
3. Ranting (11) J: Damien Oliver (61kg) T: L & T Corstens
111311.2
4. Exeter (4) J: Ms Alana Kelly (60kg) T: D T O'brien
131312.4
5. It'sourtime (8) J: Fred Kersley (59kg) T: D T O'brien
3.53.53.35
6. Polanco (6) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: Shea Eden
7. The Gauch (10) J: Josh Richards (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
555.3
8. Not To Be Mist (9) J: Rhys Mcleod (58.5kg) T: Nick Ryan
191921
9. Sig Positano (5) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
10. Free To Move (1) J: Craig Newitt (56kg) T: K & K Keys
416145
11. Sixbysixtythree (2) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
2.62.72.55

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

(5) It’sourtime was simply too good first up over 1100m here, chasing well to deny Duchess Of Dorset who has won easily since. He’s had 40 days between runs but I think he’s better than benchmark grade and drops 1kg off last start. I like the wide draw and think he can win and target some of the listed summer sprints.

(11) Sixbysixtythree is undefeated from three career starts and has shown plenty of tactical versatility, leading two back before settling midfield last start at Pakenham. He gets in on the minimum and if the inside is okay he’ll be in the finish.

(1) More Than Exceed looks the value. His first up record is excellent with 3 wins and a 2nd from 6 starts. He’s got a big weight but given he’s an open class winner he’s not too poorly off after the claim.

(7) The Gauch is incredibly consistent and will run well again.

Keen on It’sourtime who is very progressive and More Than Exceed is the blowout.

Tip: (5) It’sourtime- $3.30 at Sportsbet

Value: (1) More Than Exceed- $31.00/7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN It’sourtime, 0.25 units E/W More Than Exceed

205121

Race 8

Lovethehorse Trophy (Bm84) (1600m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Lovethehorse Trophy (Bm84) (1600m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Akecheta (4) J: Ms Alana Kelly (59.5kg) T: P G Moody
898.2
2. Black Sail (6) J: John Allen (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
171817
3. Vungers (11) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: B C Hearps
343135
4. Somerset Maugham (1) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: D T O'brien
151613.8
5. Legionnaire (2) J: Jarrod Fry (55.5kg) T: J F Moloney
141511.8
6. Darlamax (8) J: Luke Currie (55kg) T: Andrew Homann
344135
7. Bea Tempted (9) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (54.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
212122.5
8. Tatunka (3) J: Dean Yendall (54.5kg) T: R F Donat
131212
9. High 'N' Dry (7) J: Matthew Cartwright (54kg) T: M J Ellerton
3.33.33.2
10. Nordic Pride (5) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: Ben Brisbourne
131514.8
11. Real Sensation (10) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Luke Oliver
3.43.43.3

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

Found it very tough to split the two favourites, and for that reason I’m going to spec (3) Vungers at huge odds who is ready to do something. He was solid first up without much fresh form, trapped 3 wide no cover on speed in the Donald Cup 2nd up, doing well to only be beaten 2.5L and a complete forgive last start on a heavy 10. He hasn’t won in over a year but Childs on is a positive and at $41/10 he’s not the worst given he’ll be on speed whereas the favourites get back.

(11) Real Sensation was good here in the Country Final from a long way back before a forgive run on the bottomless Cranbourne track. He hit the line well over 1400m at Pakenham last start and looks primed stepping back up to the mile.

(9) High ‘n’ Dry stays at the mile which is my tiny knock- I would’ve loved to see him at 1800/2000m now. He chased home the in form Lyrical Lad at Pakenham last start and drops heavily in weight. If he can settle in front of Real Sensation he’ll be hard to beat.

(1) Akecheta is flying and did a good job to lead at a fast tempo in the Wodonga Cup last start. He started $3.00 there to Vungers’ $7.00 but clearly handled the heavy track much better.

Tip: (3) Vungers- $41.00/10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Vungers, 0.5 units PLC Vungers

205121

Race 9

G.H. Mumm Christmas Plate-Bm78 (1000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 9

G.H. Mumm Christmas Plate-Bm78 (1000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Alleboom (4) J: Ms Alana Kelly (62kg) T: R & C Jolly
66.56.8
2. Yulong Command (1) J: Matthew Cartwright (61kg) T: A & S Freedman
3.73.93.4
3. Galenus (3) J: Brett Prebble (58.5kg) T: Scott Brunton
88.58.6
4. Easy Single (10) J: J Allen (57.5kg) T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
5. Winsum (12) J: Ben Allen (57.5kg) T: K & K Keys
6. Snapper (9) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: M D Moroney
111210
7. Scorched Earth (8) J: Damien Oliver (55kg) T: J F Moloney
3.93.94.05
8. Sweetzou (7) J: Josh Richards (55kg) T: John Sadler
9. High Risk (6) J: Teodore Nugent (54.5kg) T: Ms S Trolove
141514.8
10. Mr Moppett (11) J: Dean Yendall (54.5kg) T: Phillip Sweeney
11. Miss Divine Em (2) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
555
12. Aqua Lady (5) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: Saab Hasan

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 5:42pm (AEDT)

Strong 1000m race to finish. (5) Winsum was an impressive first up winner at Pakenham. The overall time was solid and his late splits were quite good. 2nd up last prep over 1100m at Caulfield he started $4 to Yulong Command’s $20 and easily beat him home. I think they’ve realised he’s best kept to 1000m and the wide draw suits.

(2) Yulong Command is racing well and comes out of a stronger race behind Enthaar. He’s run down the straight twice and whilst he’s run okay, I prefer him around a bend where he can lead and kick. He also loses D Lane and draws barrier 1 which may not be ideal. That being said, he’s very fast and will take plenty of catching.

(3) Galenus is a horse I have plenty of time for. He was lucky to win over 1000m first up last prep over an unlucky Ocular, but has a very good fresh record and overall winning record.

(9) High Risk was solid first up at The Valley and has run well down the straight. She drops 7.5kg off that effort and 2nd up last prep at this T/D she was only beaten 0.5L by Express Pass in this grade which is solid form.

Tip: (5) Winsum- $4.00 at TAB

Value: (9) High Risk- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Winsum, 0.25 units WIN High Risk

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

Advertisement Moneyball
Advertisement WinnersBet
Advertisement BetDeluxe

More in Racing Tips