Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, February 19th

Tough opener. (11) Tycoon Bec is ready to do something if she’s good enough. She’s had a slow start to the campaign but did hit the line well last start in an easier race and drops 5kg down to 51kg. Her trial in between runs was very good as you’d expect for a fit horse, but importantly she led and now fully fit we may see her adopt similar tactics.

(3) Playoffs was too strong for Unique Artist last start, only 2nd up at 2000m. That horse has run well in SA since, and Playoffs can only be fitter here, mapping for a soft run.

(4) Guizot the old boy is actually going very well. He didn’t have much luck at all in a stronger race last start behind Desert Icon, really flashing home well late. He’s up 6kg in weight dropping from a bm100 here but ran much better than some established borderline listed horses there.

(8) Rosseau was given an outstanding ride last start by Olly to take off mid race and pinch it. This is harder and I doubt he’ll be able to do it again with a more genuine tempo, but he’s a chance.

(7) Red Kelly is an interesting one. He was suited by a fast tempo first up in Australia but did make solid ground and will obviously improve a lot out to 2000m. 2nd up in 2020 (off a 9L defeat to Tiger Moth) he bolted in by 7 lengths. 

Tip: (7) Red Kelly- $10.00 at TopSport

Value: (4) Guizot- $16.20/4.45 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Red Kelly, 0.25 units E/W Guizot

Annoyingly (5) Tuvalu was scratched on race morning a couple of weeks ago after being around $2 into $1.50 and provided he’s ready to go expect something similar. This is a bit tougher but I’m a huge fan of this horse and think he’s got group 1 ability. His win at Warrnambool first up was utterly dominant in very fast time, destroying Zoltan who won his next start. He looks to get a fairly comfortable spot either leading or eyeballing Gentleman Roy and provided he goes an average or above tempo I can’t see how they beat him again. 

(7) Gentleman Roy is a nice horse and has a bit of race fitness over Tuvalu, winning well last start at the mile. That was at The Valley and he got every favour, this will be a tougher 1600m with Tuvalu in it at Flemington, and I think that will be his upper limit. 

(1) High ’n’ Dry looks a big price. He’s racing very well and proven at this level, coming off a strong win over Unanimous in track record time last start. If Tuvalu sets a good pace he’ll be the closer and might pose some threat. 

Not a max bet this time on Tuvalu just with that small setback, but still having a good crack, and High ’n’ Dry looks the one at odds that will be running on and can fill a place.

Tip: (5) Tuvalu- $2.15 at BoomBet

Also Backing: (1) High ’n’ Dry- $17.00/3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Tuvalu, 0.25/0.75 units E/W High ’n Dry

Open race for the mares. One that looks ready now is (4) Modern Millie, 3rd up in Australia. She had a slow recovery first up before improving at The Valley, not suited when the sprint went on off a slow tempo. Her 800-600m split was the race fastest before sustaining a good run to the line. She meets the winner 3kg better and gets Jmac on. My query with her is a good track- she’s had 9 starts on good overseas and only managed one 3rd. 

(5) Yonce is hard to knock having won 3 from 3. She was backed as if unbeatable last start but did have to fight late to win. Out to 1600m will definitely suit her and the market has her going to a good level. 

(1) Centimental had the heavy bias in her favour last start at Rosehill but did brain them. This will be a different test at the mile, a traditionally tough mile to lead and win.

(2) Americain Angel was given a great ride by Kah last time to get moving off a slow speed and come home strongly. She’s a strong chance again, no knock on her. 

The good track is a significant query with Modern Millie but she’s a big price with Jmac on, ready to peak 3rd up. 

Tip: (4) Modern Millie- $12.00/3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Modern Millie

Siding with the Sydney form here in the form of (4) Rakomelo who just had no hope against the bias at Rosehill last time out. He was back and off the fence the entire race but got into 2nd late off the back of a very nice trial. He gets the blinkers on first time here and this looks a last ditch effort to get him into a Blue Diamond. 

(12) Waltz On By had a good run on debut but did well to finish 4th behind Miss Roseiano who has run very well since behind Revolutionary Miss, which in turn ties in some of the Sydney fillies form. 

(14) I’mlovinya was good late in the same race as Waltz On By, getting a long way back and pulling up with a slow recovery. Her late splits were quite strong and if she can settle closer down the straight she’s a big chance. 

(15) Zennzella has jumped out very nicely at Cranbourne, easily accounting for Le Gagneur who did run 3rd to Renosu on debut. Jmac booked, expect her to run very well. 

Tip: (4) Rakomelo- $13.00/4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 units E/W Rakomelo

Couldn’t believe (5) Barb Raider went up $6 after sitting around $3.50 in the futures market all week. She had a super first prep and was arguably the run of the race in the Thousand Guineas, sitting 3rd in run and finishing 3rd, whereas 1st, 2nd and 4th came from 13th, 11th and 10th at the 400m respectively. Her recent trial was outstanding, sitting back and rounding them up nicely. My only query is she has concussion plates on, which I don’t believe were on in the trial. 

(4) Socialist has had a freshen since a career peak in the MM 3yo Guineas, running 3rd to King Of Sparta. Her form prior was solid without raving and I think she’ll regress, but if she runs close to that level she’ll be very hard to beat.

(8) Finepoint has a very strong SP profile. She went out on a win over the older horses at $1.65 and Jmac sticks with her off just one quiet trial. 

(1) Cardigan Queen won well first up and should improve off that. She looks the best of the Melbourne fillies that have been racing through the Summer. 

Tip: (5) Barb Raider- $6.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Barb Raider

(3) Lightsaber is interesting. I thought he’d run a good race in the Orr last week but he completely blew the start and it was race over from there. I like the decision to back him up given he basically just trialled last week, and if he jumps as usual he can control this. His only run at this T/D was an easy win in the Sires as a 2yo and Nolen on is a positive.

(4) Zethus ran very well first up off a long break. They went slowly early and he came home well behind the speedy Generation, supposedly with good improvement to come. Olly goes on now and he’s always shown plenty of talent but has had a few issues.

(10) Linas Legend comes out of the same race and I couldn’t believe how well backed he was there, around $15 into $6 SP. He kept coming through the line and is clearly looking for 1400m. Bit of a tricky draw but I’d expect they roll forward and try to land in the first 6. 

(1) Captivant is classy and was okay first up behind Paulele. He’ll be better 3rd up at 1600m in the Guineas and his 2nd up record leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s good enough to win. 

Tip: (3) Lightsaber- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Zethus- $13.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Linas Legend- $13.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Lightsaber, 0.25 units WIN Zethus, 0.25 units WIN Linas Legend

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(5) Groundswell was solid first up behind Open Minded and Lighthouse with 59kg. That form has turned out quite well with Lighthouse running 2nd in the Orr and More Than Exceed also winning a listed race in Tasmania. He’s got a good 2nd up record (5:2-0-1) and has jumped out well down the straight behind Nature Strip since. There is pressure here which is a query- he’s much better when able to control the race but he’s a decent price.

(1) Elephant is unbeaten fresh, including his one fresh run in Aus, which was a strong bm84 win before taking on some stronger races and more than holding his own. His target is the All Star Mile, which he’s made the field for, so with 60kg fresh there probably isn’t full intent.

(9) Cherry Tortoni can be hard to catch but did run a super race first up at this T/D last prep, beating home Ayrton. He’ll need luck from barrier 2 and hasn’t trialled all that well, although he’s been given plenty of hitouts so should be quite forward.

Tip: (5) Groundswell- $12.00/3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Groundswell

(10) The Garden was well backed first up and ran well, perhaps just peaking on her run late. Up to 1200m will suit and she’s a progressive horse on the up. The straight is unknown but she’s drawn well out wide and will take plenty of running down.

(3) Pioneer River is the danger. He’s become basically a straight track only horse, having won 3 from 5 at this T/D, including two of his three last runs where he sat on speed out wide and controlled the race. He looks to be able to do so again here. His last effort behind In The Boat at The Valley was good enough to suggest he can win here.

(11) Rose Quartz ran well and was a touch unlucky behind The Garden last start. She was fresh off 7 weeks into that although I think with the race fitness The Garden will prove too strong for her again.

(7) Irish Songs might be the blowout. He runs well down the straight and although a bit in the wilderness he’s been freshened and looked to go well in a recent Canberra trial. Prebble on, drawn to get to the outside and let rip.

Backing Pioneer River, saving The Garden, something very small on Irish Songs.

Tip: (3) Pioneer River- $6.00 at TopSport

Value: (7) Irish Songs- $51.00/10.00 at Bet365

Saver: (10) The Garden- $2.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pioneer River, 0.5 units WIN The Garden, 0.2/0.3 units E/W Irish Songs