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Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, February 19th

Tim Geers previews all 10 races at Rosehill on Hobartville Stakes day!

RosehillRaceCourse

The Sydney Autumn Carnival continues to build with a triple-header of Group 2s at Rosehill this Saturday!

The Hobartville Stakes, Silver Slipper Stakes and Millie Fox Stakes headline the 10-race card.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail in the true position, but there is a slight chance of more rain.

Tim Geers has previewed all 10 races below with his tips and best bets.

His best bet comes up in Race 7 and his best value bets go around in Race 6.

Find his full race-by-race preview for Rosehill below!

Best Bet: Race 7 – (8) Mightybeel

Best Value: Race 6 – (14) Ebhaar & (15) Cythera

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209726

Race 1

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1400m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1400m)
12:25pm (AEDT)

1. Commando Hunt (18) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (59kg) T: Cameron Crockett
191916.4
2. Absolute Trust (5) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: Tim Mcintosh
717173
3. Arctic Wolf (8) J: Jay Ford (58.5kg) T: B J Dodson
201922.5
4. Royal Exit (24) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: Mark Schmetzer
131311
5. Steplee (21) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: R P Northam
7.57.56.6
6. Golden Point (10) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: Stirling Osland
99.59.4
7. King's Trust (19) J: Tom Sherry (56.5kg) T: T J Robinson
171914
8. Markievicz (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: B J Ratcliff
8.59.59.6
9. Circularity (16) J: Joshua Parr (55.5kg) T: William Freedman
343131
10. Foodie King (17) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: M R Mulholland
343137
11. Shelby Sixtysix (22) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: D A Williams
131411
12. Danzadel (2) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: T J Robinson
7.57.57.4
13. Off Her Roca (20) J: (54kg) T: Glen Hodge
14. Haven (6) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: William Freedman
262625
15. Nic's Hero (14) J: (54kg) T: Gary Colvin
16. Surf Sonic (9) J: Brock Ryan (54kg) T: R P Northam
161316.8
17. Bella Broadway (4) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: D A Williams
343440
18. Shen Gui (3) J: Chad Schofield (54kg) T: Lou Mary
9.5910
19. Hard To Dismiss (1) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: S I Singleton
131313.2
20. Zaidin (12) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (54kg) T: D S Smith
817175
21. Daksha (11) J: Ms Cejay Graham (54kg) T: Lyle Chandler
514137
22. Danza In The Dark (13) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: Stephen Meyer
414131
23. Flying Pretty (23) J: (54kg) T: P A Smith
24. Charlemagne (15) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Jean Dubois
616147

Good luck betting early here with a Highway containing a full field of 18 runners.

(1) Commando Hunt carries the top weight of 59kg here but isn’t without a hope at nearly 20/1. He ran first up here two weeks ago and never saw daylight in the straight, beaten just 2.65L. Kathy O’Hara on from barrier 18 isn’t great but he’s big odds for a horse that won a race like this at the same stage last prep.

(8) Markievicz hasn’t done much wrong, winning his last three starts, including one in this class over 1500m here at Rosehill last start.

(11) Shelby Sixtysix is another out of the same race as Commando Hunt last start, and he also had no luck in the straight with seemingly lots to offer. Drawn off the track and doesn’t win often but has to be included.

Chances don’t end there.

Tip: (1) Commando Hunt $20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

209726

Race 2

Schweppes (Bm94) (1100m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Schweppes (Bm94) (1100m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

1. Rule Of Law (4) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker
2.42.252.35
2. Shadow Crush (7) J: Tom Sherry (58kg) T: Mark Newnham
4.44.64.65
3. Mr Mosaic (1) J: Reece Jones (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
444.05
4. Emanate (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: James Cummings
111210
5. Never Talk (2) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: K A Lees
171916.2
6. Gravina (6) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: James Cummings
6.56.55.7
7. Dream Circle (3) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54kg) T: David Payne

Just the six runners here but anything could win this.

(6) Gravina returns as a gelding this time around with Tommy Berry booked to ride. The soft conditions will really bring him into it given his three career wins have all come on rain-affected ground, from just four goes.

(1) Rule Of Law isn’t doing much wrong with four wins from as many starts this preparation. He did win on a very biased track last start which is the only query but it’s hard to knock a horse in his sort of form.

(3) Mr Mosaic would be the one I’d be keen to oppose. He’s won his first two starts this prep but he’s never run a place from three attempts when third up from a spell.

Tip: (6) Gravina $6.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Gravina

209726

Race 3

Midway (Bm72) (1500m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Midway (Bm72) (1500m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

1. Casino Mondial (7) J: Ms Madi Derrick (63kg) T: Ms K Buchanan
181919.2
2. Military Expert (5) J: Tommy Berry (59.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
32.82.75
3. Mccormack (3) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: T J Bartley
999.6
4. Miss Redoble (6) J: Reece Jones (58.5kg) T: T J Bartley
171617.2
5. Always Sure (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58.5kg) T: G W Moore
121310.8
6. The Guru (2) J: Brock Ryan (58kg) T: Ms T Bateup
192121.5
7. Olympic Gaze (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57kg) T: P M Perry
10110173
8. Free State (4) J: Tom Sherry (55.5kg) T: Brad Widdup
171714.2
9. French Emperor (10) J: Keagan Latham (55kg) T: David Payne
4.854.55
10. Remus (11) J: Sam Clipperton (54.5kg) T: J M Austin
121212.2
11. Sally Pops (13) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (53kg) T: Robert Quinn
212626.5
12. The Fossil (12) J: Ms Alysha Collett (52.5kg) T: Sam Kavanagh
192019.6
13. Weekend Affair (1) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: J C Coyle
171716.2

(2) Military Expert was slightly disappointing first up but really does find another suitable race here. Up in trip second up with Berry sticking, looks the horse to beat.

(1) Casino Mondial is value at double figure odds. He did very little first up but that was a significantly harder race than this behind the likes of Maotai and Silent Impact. Down in grade heavily to a Midway and while he’s better over a little bit further than this, he can be competitive.

(9) French Emperor was very ordinary as favourite in a similar race last start. Jury is out.

(12) The Fossil next best and ready third up.

Tip: (2) Military Expert $2.70 BlueBet

Value: (1) Casino Mondial $18 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Military Expert, 0.5 units WIN Casino Mondial

209726

Race 4

Rosehill B.C. Millie Fox Stks (1300m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Rosehill B.C. Millie Fox Stks (1300m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

1. Krone (4) J: Hugh Bowman (58kg) T: T J Gollan
54.85.4
2. Rocha Clock (2) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: J A O'shea
665.5
3. Expat (8) J: Tom Sherry (55kg) T: Mark Newnham
3.53.33.55
4. Matchmaker (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55kg) T: C J Waller
131310.4
5. Bring The Ransom (7) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
121111.8
6. Belluci Babe (3) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.24.43.7
7. Le Lude (1) J: Brock Ryan (54kg) T: John Thompson
999.6
8. Nicci's Fling (6) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: G Portelli
212120

(3) Expat returns after a freshen up, having last raced to victory in the G3 Belle Of the Turf Stakes at Gosford at the end of December. Has trialled since then and comes into this with the blinkers back on. Loves the conditions and loves the distance so should be hard to beat.

(2) Rocha Clock resumes and might just find this one run too early. She typically goes better second and third up but she has had two trials and Tommy Berry is a good lead. Not hopeless at all and looks a decent each way bet with just eight runners in the race.

(4) Matchmaker returns from a bleed while (1) Krone at her best would win this but some query whether she is, especially having to carry weight here.

Tip: (3) Expat $2.95 BoomBet

Also Backing: (2) Rocha Clock $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Expat, 0.5 units WIN Rocha Clock

209726

Race 5

Ned Whisky (Bm78) (1100m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Ned Whisky (Bm78) (1100m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

1. Mazu (5) J: Sam Clipperton (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
5.55.54.95
2. Nasturtium (3) J: Tim Clark (58.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
3.23.33.35
3. Kinloch (10) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: K A Lees
414131
4. Sixgun (1) J: Joshua Parr (57.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
312623
5. Fox Fighter (9) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: David Payne
212117.6
6. Able Willie (7) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
3.23.33.2
7. Minsk Moment (8) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
6.58.56.6
8. Eyewitness (6) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Ms K Buchanan
614157
9. Zapateo (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: James Cummings
76.57.6
10. All Machiavellian (2) J: Brock Ryan (54kg) T: R & L Price
15191101

Great little race but an impossible one to bet in.

(2) Nasturtium has been impressive in three career starts but we’re about to find out how good he really is. He won a maiden and then a class 1 before leading all the way at Canterbury last start. Always advantageous to be in that position at Cantebrury so was his performance a little bit flattering? We’ll find out.

(7) Minsk Moment is still a colt and is unbeaten from two first up runs. They threw him in the Coolmore at the end of last prep so they must have a decent opinion of him.

(6) Able Willie finished well at Canterbury first up and will no doubt give this a shake, while (1) MAzu was last seen winning the Brian Crowley Stakes and now returns as a gelding.

Throw in (9) Zapateo who has two wins and two 2nds beaten less than 0.5L. Been trialling well and no surprise if she rolls the lot of them.

Tip: (2) Nasturtium $3.70 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

209726

Race 6

Fujitsu General Silver Slipper (1100m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Fujitsu General Silver Slipper (1100m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

1. Shalatin (13) J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
6.56.57.1
2. Best Of Bordeaux (7) J: Sam Clipperton (56.5kg) T: Kacy Fogden
87.59.1
3. Athletica (12) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
817153
4. Emperor (10) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: M J Dunn
817183
5. Zambezi River (9) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
676755
6. Spacewalk (15) J: Glyn Schofield (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
202020
7. Nolan (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
1269175
8. Boyfriend (3) J: Chad Schofield (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
202121
9. Magic (11) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
343431
10. Psychiatrist (4) J: Jay Ford (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
11. Ojai (6) J: Tim Clark (54.5kg) T: James Cummings
88.57.8
12. Miss Hellfire (14) J: (54.5kg) T: Peter & Paul Snowden
13. Queen Of The Ball (1) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
2.72.72.4
14. Ebhaar (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
101110.6
15. Cythera (2) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
7.57.56.5

(14) Ebhaar started the even money favourite when running second-last in the G3 Widden Stakes last start. Raced far too keenly in the run and spent all its tickets before the home straight. Worth respecting her starting price there because we’re getting more than 5X the price here.

(15) Cythera made a good impression on debut in the Lonhro Plate, holding off lady laguna and Spacewalk. Draws softly for a good run here and can measure up.

(13) Queen Of The Ball draws the inside so should find the front just as she did in the Widden Stakes when she walked in by 3.75L.

(2) Best Of Bordeaux waltzed in by 4.6L on debut in the Canonbury Stakes and although it was only a small field, it was hard not to be impressed.

Tip: (14) Ebhaar $10 TAB

Also Backing: (15) Cythera $7.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ebhaar, 0.5 units WIN Cythera

209726

Race 7

Parramatta Cup (1900m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Parramatta Cup (1900m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

1. Entente (6) J: Tim Clark (59.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
6.56.56.6
2. Great House (9) J: Chad Schofield (59kg) T: C J Waller
161713
3. Nickajack Cave (8) J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg) T: P G Moody
131313.2
4. Mustajeer (5) J: Jason Collett (58kg) T: K A Lees
141616.2
5. Skyward (3) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: Paul Messara
414141
6. Sheraz (7) J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: C J Waller
414130
7. Parry Sound (13) J: William Pike (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
121210
8. Mightybeel (4) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: C J Waller
4.244.05
9. First In Line (11) J: Glyn Schofield (54kg) T: Matthew Smith
615161
10. Sweet Thomas (2) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Matthew Smith
616161
11. No Compromise (14) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: C J Waller
65.55.6
12. Mubariz (10) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: C J Waller
141411.4
13. Toomuchtobear (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (53kg) T: C J Waller
5.555.6
14. True Marvel (12) J: Tyler Schiller (53kg) T: Matthew Smith
343441

(8) Mightybeel is my best of the day here. He ran first up over the mile after an eight-week let up and only beat three home, but the run was much better than it looked. He settled last and ran the second-fastest final 200m and the fastest final 400m, so I think from the better draw and with the step up to 1900m he should be spot on.

(13) Toomuchtobear has done very little wrong in his career, with five wins and four placings from 10 starts. He’s a month between runs after saluting over 2000m last start, but he’s had a trial to keep the legs ticking over since. 53kg and barrier 1, plenty to like.

(11) No Compromise draws wide but loves the wet and should be suited third up and up in distance.

Tip: (8) Mightybeel $4.00 TopSport

Saver: (13) Toomuchtobear $5.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mightybeel, 0.5 units WIN Toomuchtobear

209726

Race 8

Petaluma Hobartville Stakes (1400m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Petaluma Hobartville Stakes (1400m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

1. Anamoe (9) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
1.751.751.78
2. Converge (11) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
665.3
3. Alegron (4) J: Glyn Schofield (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
917159
4. Hilal (1) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
111210.2
5. Ranch Hand (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
99.58.6
6. Giannis (10) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Chris Waller
7. Mana Nui (14) J: Chad Schofield (56.5kg) T: Chris Waller
8. Royalzel (3) J: Brock Ryan (56.5kg) T: G Portelli
126101101
9. Raging Bull (6) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: David Payne
12610189
10. Maurice's Medad (5) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
2626.5
11. Silent Impact (13) J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
777.1
12. Subterranean (12) J: Sam Clipperton (56.5kg) T: M J Dunn
616161
13. Kiss Sum (2) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: T J Bartley
616159
14. War Eternal (15) J: (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
15. Flying Crazy (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
616147

(1) Anamoe will be out to atone for his first up defeat in the Expressway Stakes when he struck an awfully rail-biased track. His run for 3rd was sound given what he came up against and I’m sure he can make up for it with victory here. Up to 1400m suits.

(2) Converge ran 2nd to Paulele in the Eskimo Prince, followed by (5) Ranch Hand and (4) Hilal. All will be suited by the rise in trip, more so Converge and Hilal. Interesting to see how they ride Converge from the wide gate given the stable also has Silent Impact drawn wide.

Pretty confident Anamoe takes care of them.

Tip: (1) Anamoe $1.65 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

209726

Race 9

Chandon (Bm100) (1400m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Chandon (Bm100) (1400m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

1. Groundswell (11) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: A & S Freedman
6.56.57.1
2. Sky Lab (10) J: Hugh Bowman (60kg) T: P M Perry
9.599.6
3. Zeyrek (8) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
131411.2
4. Dealmaker (12) J: Tyler Schiller (55kg) T: C J Waller
414132
5. Morrissy (1) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: L & T Corstens
161714.8
6. New Arrangement (4) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: C J Waller
9.598.3
7. Dream Circle (3) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: David Payne
997.9
8. Ranch Hand (7) J: (54kg) T: Chris Waller
9. Giannis (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: C J Waller
7.586.6
10. Mana Nui (2) J: (54kg) T: Chris Waller
11. Matowatakpe (6) J: Ms Rachel King (52.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
6.577.1
12. Invinciano (9) J: Ms Alysha Collett (52kg) T: Joseph Pride
5.55.55.6
13. Bergen (13) J: Brock Ryan (52kg) T: G W Moore
101010.2

Very trappy sort of race but if the track is in the soft range, (7) Dream Circle becomes an each way bet. He gets up to 1400m now, a distance he’s won three times over. He’s had 17 goes on good ground for zero wins, while he’s had 19 starts in the wet for six wins and four placings. Drawn well carries 52.5kg and should be in the money.

(6) New Arrangement won first up last preparation and gets Tommy Berry on from a good draw.

Not many others stand out as horses you’d be desperate to back.

Tip: (7) Dream Circle $7.50/$2.60 Neds

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Dream Circle

209726

Race 10

Xxxx (Bm78) (1400m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 10

Xxxx (Bm78) (1400m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

1. Impasse (15) J: Sam Clipperton (62kg) T: M J Dunn
212123.5
2. Casino Mondial (12) J: (60kg) T: Kristen Buchanan
3. Dajraan (1) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
2.82.62.95
4. Ulysses (6) J: Reece Jones (60kg) T: R & M Freedman
131212.2
5. Bullfinch (10) J: Chad Schofield (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
191817
6. Tamerlane (9) J: Glyn Schofield (58kg) T: James Cummings
8.597.8
7. Centimental (11) J: Tom Sherry (57kg) T: C J Waller
8. Military Expert (7) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
9. Crosscheck (5) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: G W Moore
131314.2
10. Sindacato (4) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C J Waller
786.6
11. Steel Diamond (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
887.9
12. War Eternal (2) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
9.5108
13. Finepoint (8) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: C J Waller
111010
14. Flying Crazy (13) J: (54kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
15. Kennedy Choice (14) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54kg) T: David Payne
414131

(3) Dajraan made a big impression on his Australian debut, backed into $1.65 before scoring by 1.5L at Warwick Farm. The form out of that race isn’t impressive but he draws barrier 1 here and will be better suited getting up to 1400m so he looks the horse to beat.

(10) Sindacato makes his Australian debut as a lightly-raced 6YO. He had five starts in New Zealand and now joins Chris Waller with Hugh Bowman booked. Ran on Boxing Day over 1500m and returns over 1400m here having trialled once since arriving. Draws ideally and no doubt can go to a new level, but might be chasing a smart one.

(4) Ulysees can feature third up from a spell after not having a great deal of luck last start.

Tip: (3) Dajraan $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dajraan

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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