Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, February 19th

Good luck betting early here with a Highway containing a full field of 18 runners.

(1) Commando Hunt carries the top weight of 59kg here but isn’t without a hope at nearly 20/1. He ran first up here two weeks ago and never saw daylight in the straight, beaten just 2.65L. Kathy O’Hara on from barrier 18 isn’t great but he’s big odds for a horse that won a race like this at the same stage last prep.

(8) Markievicz hasn’t done much wrong, winning his last three starts, including one in this class over 1500m here at Rosehill last start.

(11) Shelby Sixtysix is another out of the same race as Commando Hunt last start, and he also had no luck in the straight with seemingly lots to offer. Drawn off the track and doesn’t win often but has to be included.

Chances don’t end there.

Tip: (1) Commando Hunt $20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Just the six runners here but anything could win this.

(6) Gravina returns as a gelding this time around with Tommy Berry booked to ride. The soft conditions will really bring him into it given his three career wins have all come on rain-affected ground, from just four goes.

(1) Rule Of Law isn’t doing much wrong with four wins from as many starts this preparation. He did win on a very biased track last start which is the only query but it’s hard to knock a horse in his sort of form.

(3) Mr Mosaic would be the one I’d be keen to oppose. He’s won his first two starts this prep but he’s never run a place from three attempts when third up from a spell.

Tip: (6) Gravina $6.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Gravina

(2) Military Expert was slightly disappointing first up but really does find another suitable race here. Up in trip second up with Berry sticking, looks the horse to beat.

(1) Casino Mondial is value at double figure odds. He did very little first up but that was a significantly harder race than this behind the likes of Maotai and Silent Impact. Down in grade heavily to a Midway and while he’s better over a little bit further than this, he can be competitive.

(9) French Emperor was very ordinary as favourite in a similar race last start. Jury is out.

(12) The Fossil next best and ready third up.

Tip: (2) Military Expert $2.70 BlueBet

Value: (1) Casino Mondial $18 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Military Expert, 0.5 units WIN Casino Mondial

(3) Expat returns after a freshen up, having last raced to victory in the G3 Belle Of the Turf Stakes at Gosford at the end of December. Has trialled since then and comes into this with the blinkers back on. Loves the conditions and loves the distance so should be hard to beat.

(2) Rocha Clock resumes and might just find this one run too early. She typically goes better second and third up but she has had two trials and Tommy Berry is a good lead. Not hopeless at all and looks a decent each way bet with just eight runners in the race.

(4) Matchmaker returns from a bleed while (1) Krone at her best would win this but some query whether she is, especially having to carry weight here.

Tip: (3) Expat $2.95 BoomBet

Also Backing: (2) Rocha Clock $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Expat, 0.5 units WIN Rocha Clock

Great little race but an impossible one to bet in.

(2) Nasturtium has been impressive in three career starts but we’re about to find out how good he really is. He won a maiden and then a class 1 before leading all the way at Canterbury last start. Always advantageous to be in that position at Cantebrury so was his performance a little bit flattering? We’ll find out.

(7) Minsk Moment is still a colt and is unbeaten from two first up runs. They threw him in the Coolmore at the end of last prep so they must have a decent opinion of him.

(6) Able Willie finished well at Canterbury first up and will no doubt give this a shake, while (1) MAzu was last seen winning the Brian Crowley Stakes and now returns as a gelding.

Throw in (9) Zapateo who has two wins and two 2nds beaten less than 0.5L. Been trialling well and no surprise if she rolls the lot of them.

Tip: (2) Nasturtium $3.70 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

(14) Ebhaar started the even money favourite when running second-last in the G3 Widden Stakes last start. Raced far too keenly in the run and spent all its tickets before the home straight. Worth respecting her starting price there because we’re getting more than 5X the price here.

(15) Cythera made a good impression on debut in the Lonhro Plate, holding off lady laguna and Spacewalk. Draws softly for a good run here and can measure up.

(13) Queen Of The Ball draws the inside so should find the front just as she did in the Widden Stakes when she walked in by 3.75L.

(2) Best Of Bordeaux waltzed in by 4.6L on debut in the Canonbury Stakes and although it was only a small field, it was hard not to be impressed.

Tip: (14) Ebhaar $10 TAB

Also Backing: (15) Cythera $7.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ebhaar, 0.5 units WIN Cythera

(8) Mightybeel is my best of the day here. He ran first up over the mile after an eight-week let up and only beat three home, but the run was much better than it looked. He settled last and ran the second-fastest final 200m and the fastest final 400m, so I think from the better draw and with the step up to 1900m he should be spot on.

(13) Toomuchtobear has done very little wrong in his career, with five wins and four placings from 10 starts. He’s a month between runs after saluting over 2000m last start, but he’s had a trial to keep the legs ticking over since. 53kg and barrier 1, plenty to like.

(11) No Compromise draws wide but loves the wet and should be suited third up and up in distance.

Tip: (8) Mightybeel $4.00 TopSport

Saver: (13) Toomuchtobear $5.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mightybeel, 0.5 units WIN Toomuchtobear

(1) Anamoe will be out to atone for his first up defeat in the Expressway Stakes when he struck an awfully rail-biased track. His run for 3^rd was sound given what he came up against and I’m sure he can make up for it with victory here. Up to 1400m suits.

(2) Converge ran 2^nd to Paulele in the Eskimo Prince, followed by (5) Ranch Hand and (4) Hilal. All will be suited by the rise in trip, more so Converge and Hilal. Interesting to see how they ride Converge from the wide gate given the stable also has Silent Impact drawn wide.

Pretty confident Anamoe takes care of them.

Tip: (1) Anamoe $1.65 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Very trappy sort of race but if the track is in the soft range, (7) Dream Circle becomes an each way bet. He gets up to 1400m now, a distance he’s won three times over. He’s had 17 goes on good ground for zero wins, while he’s had 19 starts in the wet for six wins and four placings. Drawn well carries 52.5kg and should be in the money.

(6) New Arrangement won first up last preparation and gets Tommy Berry on from a good draw.

Not many others stand out as horses you’d be desperate to back.

Tip: (7) Dream Circle $7.50/$2.60 Neds

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Dream Circle

(3) Dajraan made a big impression on his Australian debut, backed into $1.65 before scoring by 1.5L at Warwick Farm. The form out of that race isn’t impressive but he draws barrier 1 here and will be better suited getting up to 1400m so he looks the horse to beat.

(10) Sindacato makes his Australian debut as a lightly-raced 6YO. He had five starts in New Zealand and now joins Chris Waller with Hugh Bowman booked. Ran on Boxing Day over 1500m and returns over 1400m here having trialled once since arriving. Draws ideally and no doubt can go to a new level, but might be chasing a smart one.

(4) Ulysees can feature third up from a spell after not having a great deal of luck last start.

Tip: (3) Dajraan $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dajraan