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Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, February 27th

The Group 1 Australian Guineas headlines a huge day of racing at Flemington and Trent Crebbin has you covered with his race by race preview.

flemington racing tips

A huge 9 race card at Flemington on Saturday, headlined by the Group 1 Australian Guineas. 

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 2 metres- perfect punting conditions. 

Trent Crebbin is buying into the West is Best theory, with his Best Bet coming up in Race 5.

Best Bet- Race 5 (2) Fabergino & (4) Indian Pacific

Best Value- Race 6 (9) Mahamedeis

 

0

Race 1

Very Special Kids Plate (1000m)
12:20pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Very Special Kids Plate (1000m)
12:20pm (AEDT)

1. Kallos (4) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
444.84.84.24
2. Gummy Bear (5) J: Teodore Nugent (57kg) T: Tim Hughes
2012018181221151
3. Dollar Chaser (9) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: Bill Papazaharoudakis
2726212128.526
4. Decent Raine (1) J: John Allen (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
885.55.58.68
5. Tycoon Humma (8) J: Jamie Mott (55kg) T: John Mcardle
2.42.452.92.92.32.5
6. To The Moon Alice (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: Daniel Bowman
11108.58.511.210
7. Zanzibar Gem (6) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
1211151511.411
8. Wanaroo (7) J: Craig Williams (55kg) T: G Eurell
11125.55.513.211
9. Extassy (3) J: Daniel Stackhouse (55kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
212113132019

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Does look a race in two here. (5) Tycoon Humma was a very nice winner on debut at Bendigo, pushing into the clear late and extending late to come away from them. I don’t think she beat much there but the sectionals were good and there were big gaps back to the field. Drawn out wide here we should get to see her build momentum a bit earlier. I think she’ll drift a bit from the opening quote, but I’ve got her on top.

 

(1) Kallos is the benchmark. He was caught wide on debut at The Valley and battled well for 4th behind Telluride, and then backed it up with a good 4th behind General Beau and Anamoe. That’s clearly the strongest form but I just wonder about his run in isolation there. He got absolutely every favour and was really struggling late- his final 200m was the 4th slowest of the race, and the horses with slower final sections were being eased out of the race. I think he might’ve just been in the right spot, and if they went another 50m his 4th placing becomes a 9th placing.

 

(8) Wanaroo got a mile back at The Valley but stormed home late to run 4th. She might be completely out sped again but the straight should definitely suit better.

 

(6) To The Moon Alice ran 2nd in that race and was unlucky. She gets J Kah on and wouldn’t shock.

 

Backing Tycoon Humma but I do think we’ll get closer to $3 so hold off.

Tip: (5) Tycoon Humma- $2.70 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tycoon Humma (BSP/Top Fluc)

0

Race 2

Roy Higgins Qlty (2600m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Roy Higgins Qlty (2600m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

1. Nelson (3) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: Symon Wilde
7.56.57.57.56.66.5
2. Mosh Music (6) J: Mark Zahra (59kg) T: Archie Alexander
4.85.54.24.25.65
3. Skymax (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58kg) T: Mark Newnham
34.22.92.94.64.2
4. Sin To Win (2) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
157.515157.17.5
5. Stars Of Carrum (7) J: Jye Mcneil (55.5kg) T: P G Moody
55554.855
6. Good Idea (8) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: P Stokes
7.57.57.57.57.47.5
7. Rudimental (5) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
172618182326
8. Ripcord (1) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: P A Preusker
1317121217.616

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Skymax is the favourite down from Sydney and looks short enough. He led all the way with the light weight at Warwick Farm but the horses behind him were a bit average. Wolfe was beaten easily last start in Melbourne and Skymax jumps up to 58kg here.

 

(1) Nelson is the best horse in the race off his international form. It was in 2018 but 4.3L off Enable in an Arc would win this by a furlong. I didn’t mind his run at The Valley first up when getting back in a strange race dominated by Starcaster who sat OSL. His last 200m especially was quite strong and with that run under his belt he can definitely improve, especially getting to Flemington over The Valley which can often help imports.

 

(2) Mosh Music is one of mine but gee she was disappointing last start in the same race. She was hammered in betting to start $2.90 favourite and had to work early out wide, finally getting into the 1-1 after 1000m, which isn’t her go. We saw at Flemington 3rd up she doesn’t like being ridden close to the speed, so I’d expect her to be ridden back again. Her win at Sandown was very good where she powered home late to beat Stars Of Carrum, who ran 2nd in the Starcaster race.

 

(5) Stars Of Carrum had every chance last start and whilst he ran another good race, he’s still stuck on 1 win from 26 starts, yet is the same price as Mosh Music here who beat him fair and square at Sandown.

 

Skymax is a hope but he looks far too short coming off just average Sydney staying form. Nelson looks a good bet at $8 and Mosh Music when she’s ridden properly for her is better than all of these (bar Nelson’s overseas form). Back to a bigger track, ridden cold, she can continue her trend of bouncing off a poor run to put in a big one.

 

Tip: (1) Nelson- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Mosh Music- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nelson, 1 unit WIN Mosh Music

0

Race 3

The Tab Shaftesbury Avenue (1400m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3

The Tab Shaftesbury Avenue (1400m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

1. I Am Superman (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
64.86.54.84.44.6
2. The Harrovian (3) J: Brad Stewart (59kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
4.854.65.55.64.8
3. Platoon (6) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
7.587.58.58.68
4. Sansom (9) J: Ben Allen (56.5kg) T: P Stokes
998.59.599.5
5. Bam's On Fire (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6. Sierra Sue (2) J: Michael Walker (54kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
7.55.57.55.55.65.5
7. Morvada (8) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: P W Jolly
1261066.16
8. Never Again (5) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: C W Mcdonald
273426313034
9. Rich Itch (7) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Shawn Mathrick
15161151615561
10. Holbien (1) J: William Pike (54kg) T: S J Richards
149129.58.39.5

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Very tough with a couple of dual acceptors. (1) I Am Superman has trialled very well (as he usually does) and his 1400m record is excellent. The draw is sticky as he usually settles on speed and there’s plenty drawn inside him that will kick up.

 

(2) The Harrovian just has this outstanding will to win and he’s going for his 12th straight. This is his hardest test yet- away from Queensland, with 59kg and Brad Stewart on, but he’ll give his all and it wouldn’t shock to see him win again.

 

(7) Morvada could be the value with 54kg. He battled well behind Regardsmaree and Buffalo River last start, beaten 1.1L. Either of those horses would be favourite here. Three starts ago he was a nose off Sansom, who he meets 1.5kg better, and he gets D Lane replacing Will Price. He’s ultra-consistent and the $13/3.40 just seems a big price for a horse likely to find the front.

Bam’s On Fire is heading to Sydney so I’m happy to just play Morvada at the odds.

Tip: (7) Morvada- $13.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 unit EW Morvada

0

Race 4

World Horse Racing (Bm90) (1200m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

Race 4

World Horse Racing (Bm90) (1200m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

1. Mystyko (5) J: Liam Riordan (60kg) T: T Rogers
202019193131
2. Groundswell (8) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
7.57.5886.67.5
3. Laverrod (14) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: S & J Casey
4.24.23.93.95.55
4. Defiant Dancer (1) J: Campbell Rawiller (58.5kg) T: P Stokes
7.57.57.57.55.35.5
5. Hi Stranger (10) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: S Fliedner
1212121214.614
6. Subedar (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
3.73.73.83.84.54.2
7. I'm Telling Ya (12) J: Jye Mcneil (54.5kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
1414141411.89.5
8. Marcel From Madrid (2) J: Declan Bates (54.5kg) T: P A Preusker
232620203334
9. Zakat (9) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: James Cummings
10. Street Icon (6) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: K L Corstens
181817171818
11. Mystery Love (13) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
12. Legionnaire (4) J: Teodore Nugent (54kg) T: J F Moloney
1111111188.5
13. Leiter (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: M D Moroney
14. Onslaught (7) J: Will Price (54kg) T: Shawn Mathrick

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Laverrod is the horse to beat. He carried top weight first up at this T/D and never got any peace in a similar race. He was sharing the lead in the middle of two horses who kept bumping him but fought on well for 3rd, with the top 2 coming from off the speed much wider. That was his first run for 10 weeks, and 2nd up last prep he denied Oakleigh Plate winner Celebrity Queen as a $7.50 chance. Olly takes over from Stockdale, which is a huge tick, he draws out wide and has the straight track experience.

 

(4) Defiant Dancer is the danger. His two wins to kick off the prep were very good, including a 3L demolition of Riding The Wave at this T/D. He then went to the Standish and started favourite, only beaten 1.4L by Sirius Suspect. I like the freshen up for the Stokes’ camp, he gets Rawiller’s 3kg claim and despite barrier one I think he’s a good play.

 

(6) Subedar drops back to 1200m which seems odd off a very good first up run at 1400m behind All Time Legend. That’s definitely good enough to win this and he finds J Kah, but I’d want him up to 1600m not back in trip. He likely gets back to last and might find these too sharp.

 

(7) I’m Telling Ya beat Laverrod last start but that was his 5th win in 50 starts and he got a beautiful ride. I think Laverrod turns the tables with an easier run.

Tip: (3) Laverrod- $4.20 at TAB

Value: (4) Defiant Dancer- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Laverrod, 1 unit WIN Defiant Dancer

0

Race 5

Ata/Bob Hoysted (1000m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Ata/Bob Hoysted (1000m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

1. Hey Doc (5) J: Luke Currie (63kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
262119212319
2. Fabergino (11) J: Michael Poy (59.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
2.92.92.933.153
3. Prezado (3) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
1616181713.615
4. Indian Pacific (8) J: Brad Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
998.59.59.68.5
5. Bons Away (10) J: Teodore Nugent (55kg) T: Ms W Kelly
514151513541
6. Usmanov (4) J: Damien Oliver (55kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
2631312628.526
7. Humma Humma (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (54kg) T: John Mcardle
1919201918.619
8. All Banter (6) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: R & C Jolly
8.58.588.59.18
9. Fine Dane (2) J: William Pike (54kg) T: J F Moloney
677167815361
10. Muntaseera (12) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.23.23.43.33.23.5
11. Lashes (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: Matthew Smith
465151514941
12. Propelle (7) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
678191917181

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Great race over 1000m, dominated by two very fast WA sprinters. (2) Fabergino is 3/4 at this T/D, the only unplaced effort coming last start in the Group 1 Lightning, beaten 2.5L by Nature Strip and crossing the line with Bivouac, whilst doing it solo out wide. If she brings that run, she could just be way too good for these. My only query is that was 2 weeks ago, and she generally has her runs spaced apart to keep her fresh. If she handles the smaller gap between runs, she’s clearly the horse to beat and should be under $3.

 

(4) Indian Pacific is no slouch and gets in with 55.5kg here. His 1000m record is outstanding with 5 wins from 6 starts, and he’s 3/3 first up, coming off 6 weeks between runs here. Brad Parnham makes the trip over to ride him and he’ll be in this for a long way.

 

(10) Muntaseera is a clear 3rd pick. She’s trialled outstandingly heading into this and did win first up last prep before running 2nd to Swats That which ties in Fabergino. She’s going to be the big closer late out wide, but these leaders will carve out some seriously fast mid race sectionals, so she’ll need to withstand that pressure between the 600-400.

 

(8) All Banter is way too short at $4.20. She’s won 3 in a row this prep but has beaten absolutely nothing and fell in after leading at Caulfield last start. I’d be laying her the place at anything around even money- I don’t think she troubles the top 3.

 

Very scared of Muntaseera but I’m backing the two proven 1000m speedsters who could just run these into the ground. If Fabergino was fresh for this she’d be a big bet, but I’ll be hedging the two and confident we get a result. Outlaying a fair bit but I think there’s value here and I’m attacking it.

Tip: (2) Fabergino- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Indian Pacific- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Fabergino, 2 units WIN Indian Pacific

0

Race 6

Darley Blamey Stakes (1600m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Darley Blamey Stakes (1600m)
3:25pm (AEDT)

1. Fifty Stars (10) J: John Allen (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
12129138.311
2. Mirage Dancer (2) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
911014110141101
3. Neufbosc (1) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
616751714971
4. Irish Flame (4) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: Brett Scott
414134413334
5. Best Of Days (9) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
55655.65
6. Mystic Journey (7) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: Adam Trinder
8.595.596.27.5
7. Star Of The Seas (8) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: C J Waller
3.83.873.97.33.9
8. Funstar (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55kg) T: C J Waller
9. Mahamedeis (5) J: Jamie Mott (55kg) T: Nick Ryan
314151314934
10. Vassilator (3) J: Craig Williams (55kg) T: C W Little
313134263334
11. Buffalo River (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: M D Moroney
2.82.73.12.83.152.8

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

An All Star Mile slot is up for grabs here, with (11) Buffalo River the clear favourite and perhaps more importantly, the clear leader. I just can’t see any serious pressure for the front so he should be able to own this race from barrier 6 with 55kg. The first up run when just getting run down by Regardsmaree, conceding him 5kg, was excellent, and 2nd up last prep off a similar run he ran 2nd to Mr Quickie in a Toorak at $4.80. Put simply, if Kah rates him well, he’ll be winning.

 

(7) Star Of The Seas was definitely a pass mark first up in Sydney behind Savatiano and Kolding. 2nd up last prep he beat home Verry Elleegant in a George Main, on a good track. The extra trip will suit although he is 1200 up to 1600m, I just wonder where he gets to on the map. Waller drawing wide often means they go back, and if that’s the case I think he’ll struggle to give Buffalo River 5-6L head start. If they go forward and slot in it should be a great finish.

 

(9) Mahamedeis could be the blowout at big odds. He wasn’t bad first up behind Buffalo River, finishing 4L away and running the fastest last 200m of the entire meeting. His 2nd up record is very good with 3 wins from 6 starts and although he’s probably better over 2000m, his 1600m record is quite good. Go back to the Spring of 2019 and he ran 2nd to Homesman at 1600m in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes, beating home Surprise Baby, Fifty Stars and Best Of Days, the latter two he meets here. At $41/8.5 he’s a good e/w chance.

 

(6) Mystic Journey has been rolled at prohibitive quotes her last two in Tasmania. She loves this T/D, but I can’t see how you could back her off the last effort where she was off the bit a long way out and beaten 3.8L by Newhart.

Tip: (11) Buffalo River- $2.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Mahamedeis- $41 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Buffalo River, 0.25 units E/W Mahamedeis

0

Race 7

Kennedy Australian Guineas (1600m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Kennedy Australian Guineas (1600m)
4:05pm (AEDT)

1. Ole Kirk (15) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
777.57.57.57.5
2. Tagaloa (10) J: Luke Currie (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
3.33.43.53.63.43.6
3. Aysar (2) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
665.565.45.5
4. Cherry Tortoni (17) J: Billy Egan (57kg) T: Patrick Payne
10101010109
5. Dom To Shoot (7) J: William Pike (57kg) T: S & J Casey
109101010.611
6. Lunar Fox (6) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: P A Preusker
251301201251301251
7. Grandslam (16) J: John Allen (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
818181817781
8. Poland (1) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: M D Moroney
9. Beltoro (3) J: Jack Hill (57kg) T: Robert Hickmott
151126151151141101
10. Embolism (14) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: D T O'brien
817181818171
11. It'sourtime (12) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: D T O'brien
917181919361
12. Jet Propulsion (11) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
353434313434
13. Cambourne (9) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
414151314141
14. Ironedge (5) J: Michael Walker (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
151151151151151151
15. Here To Shock (4) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: Brent Stanley
9191811019581
16. Zou Dancer (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: L & T Corstens
4.84.84.654.854.8
17. Lofty Star (13) J: Beau Mertens (57kg) T: Julius Sandhu

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview and betting strategy for the Group 1 Australian Guineas, please follow the link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/australian-guineas-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

 

 

0

Race 8

Inglis Dash (1100m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Inglis Dash (1100m)
4:45pm (AEDT)

1. Larimer Street (9) J: Mark Zahra (58.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
343434413331
2. The Bopper (14) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: K A Lees
4.854.65.54.955.5
3. Rocketing By (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58kg) T: David Pfieffer
4. Alleboom (11) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: R & C Jolly
1618161915.813
5. Japery (4) J: Billy Egan (58kg) T: Patrick Payne
182118211716
6. Bella Nipotina (15) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
969.56.59.56
7. River Twain (8) J: Michael Walker (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
1834183116.823
8. Lord Olympus (5) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: Mark Newnham
16813814.86
9. Rising Sphere (2) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: P Stokes
61101511014171
10. Written Miss (3) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Caroline Jennings
1210129.5127.5
11. Diamonds Inthe Sky (6) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: P G Moody
213421312119
12. Joviality (12) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: C J Waller
13. Celestine (7) J: Luke Currie (55kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
86968.45
14. Miss Bosetti (13) J: Michael Dee (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
414131413041
15. Capriccio (10) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: Daniel Bowman
674161615941

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Tricky race down the straight. (3) Rocketing By has won his last three, including last start over the likes of Prime Star, Ole Kirk and Dame Giselle. He’s got a great turn of foot which he might need because barrier one looks a bit sticky. If he’d drawn out, I’d be keener but in a fairly thin race I think he’s the horse to beat.

 

(6) Bella Nipotina was specked in that race to start $16, and I thought she battled on well, 2.4L off Rocketing By. I think she’s much better suited back to 1100m and has run well down the straight before, including a 0.9L 4th to Written Beauty at this T/D last prep. She’s drawn out wide which could be the advantage.

 

(13) Celestine was 3rd in that Red Roses and did win her only other run down the straight. She has to be respected here first up.

 

(10) Written Miss is unbeaten from 3 starts and likely leads here. She fell in over 1200m down the straight last prep, and I think 1100m is probably her limit at this stage of her career.

Tip: (3) Rocketing By- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) Bella Nipotina- $8.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rocketing By, 0.5 units WIN Bella Nipotina

0

Race 9

Furphy Ale Frances Tressady (1400m)
5:20pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Furphy Ale Frances Tressady (1400m)
5:20pm (AEDT)

1. Shout The Bar (8) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
1010101010.29.5
2. Greysful Glamour (3) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: Mark Newnham
76.56.56.56.96.5
3. Mamzelle Tess (7) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
343131313031
4. Affair To Remember (17) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
1312131312.812
5. Yamazaki (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: David Pfieffer
414134414141
6. In Good Health (5) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: P G Moody
2731343127.531
7. Great Duchess (15) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: G Eurell
8. Snapdancer (10) J: John Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.56.56.56.56.66.5
9. Starla (12) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: C J Waller
272626262626
10. Paul's Regret (2) J: William Pike (56kg) T: P A Chow
8888.57.78
11. Chaillot (14) J: Declan Bates (56kg) T: Archie Alexander
3.83.73.93.93.853.9
12. Hasstobegood (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: G M Begg
1515171714.814
13. Knowles (11) J: Mark Zahra (56kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
677161616971
14. Need New Friends (13) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: D T O'brien
343134312926
15. Des Moines (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: M D Moroney
126151101151121126
16. Grand De Flora (16) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: D T O'brien
353431312731
17. Love Sensation (9) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: K L Corstens

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Open race for the mares. (2) Greysful Glamour looks to lead and is a horse I have plenty of time for. Her 1400m record is solid and first up last prep she was 1.1L off Dreamforce in the group 2 Tramway. My query is the Melbourne way of going- her last 4 runs in Melbourne have all been awful, although she has had excuses. Two were on soft ground which she simply hates, and the other two she pulled up with lameness or EIPH. She’s got an All Star Mile slot, so I’d expect she’s fairly forward for this. Currie is riding very well at the moment and she could run these into the ground.

 

(11) Chaillot will be one of the big closers late, so this could be track pattern dependent. She won first up at this T/D last prep, coming from last to run down Titan Blinders. Her run in the Empire Rose was very good, 4th beaten 0.8L by Shout The Bar, who she meets 3kg better here.

 

(4) Affair To Remember has never been one of mine but for a mare who often gets a long way back, she’s still won 25% of her races. I think she’ll get better with racing- it took her a couple of runs last prep to really hit her straps and although she might be more forward this time in looking for an ASM slot, I think she might just be flashing late.

 

(8) Snapdancer hasn’t done much wrong and was well backed against Probabeel last start over 1200m. Not sure about the 1400m for her off that run but she’s going well.

 

(6) In Good Health came of age last prep and ran very well in stronger races against the boys. 1400m is as short as she wants it but she wouldn’t shock completely.

 

The map for Greysful Glamour has me swinging her way despite her recent Melbourne record. She should be forward enough to win this and a repeat of her first up run last prep probably does. Something on Chaillot who I think will be the best closer at 1400m.

Tip: (2) Greysful Glamour- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (11) Chaillot- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Greysful Glamour, 1 unit WIN Chaillot

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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