Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, February 27th

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Does look a race in two here. (5) Tycoon Humma was a very nice winner on debut at Bendigo, pushing into the clear late and extending late to come away from them. I don’t think she beat much there but the sectionals were good and there were big gaps back to the field. Drawn out wide here we should get to see her build momentum a bit earlier. I think she’ll drift a bit from the opening quote, but I’ve got her on top.

 

(1) Kallos is the benchmark. He was caught wide on debut at The Valley and battled well for 4^th behind Telluride, and then backed it up with a good 4^th behind General Beau and Anamoe. That’s clearly the strongest form but I just wonder about his run in isolation there. He got absolutely every favour and was really struggling late- his final 200m was the 4^th slowest of the race, and the horses with slower final sections were being eased out of the race. I think he might’ve just been in the right spot, and if they went another 50m his 4^th placing becomes a 9^th placing.

 

(8) Wanaroo got a mile back at The Valley but stormed home late to run 4^th. She might be completely out sped again but the straight should definitely suit better.

 

(6) To The Moon Alice ran 2^nd in that race and was unlucky. She gets J Kah on and wouldn’t shock.

 

Backing Tycoon Humma but I do think we’ll get closer to $3 so hold off.

Tip: (5) Tycoon Humma- $2.70 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tycoon Humma (BSP/Top Fluc)

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Skymax is the favourite down from Sydney and looks short enough. He led all the way with the light weight at Warwick Farm but the horses behind him were a bit average. Wolfe was beaten easily last start in Melbourne and Skymax jumps up to 58kg here.

 

(1) Nelson is the best horse in the race off his international form. It was in 2018 but 4.3L off Enable in an Arc would win this by a furlong. I didn’t mind his run at The Valley first up when getting back in a strange race dominated by Starcaster who sat OSL. His last 200m especially was quite strong and with that run under his belt he can definitely improve, especially getting to Flemington over The Valley which can often help imports.

 

(2) Mosh Music is one of mine but gee she was disappointing last start in the same race. She was hammered in betting to start $2.90 favourite and had to work early out wide, finally getting into the 1-1 after 1000m, which isn’t her go. We saw at Flemington 3^rd up she doesn’t like being ridden close to the speed, so I’d expect her to be ridden back again. Her win at Sandown was very good where she powered home late to beat Stars Of Carrum, who ran 2^nd in the Starcaster race.

 

(5) Stars Of Carrum had every chance last start and whilst he ran another good race, he’s still stuck on 1 win from 26 starts, yet is the same price as Mosh Music here who beat him fair and square at Sandown.

 

Skymax is a hope but he looks far too short coming off just average Sydney staying form. Nelson looks a good bet at $8 and Mosh Music when she’s ridden properly for her is better than all of these (bar Nelson’s overseas form). Back to a bigger track, ridden cold, she can continue her trend of bouncing off a poor run to put in a big one.

 

Tip: (1) Nelson- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Mosh Music- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nelson, 1 unit WIN Mosh Music

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Very tough with a couple of dual acceptors. (1) I Am Superman has trialled very well (as he usually does) and his 1400m record is excellent. The draw is sticky as he usually settles on speed and there’s plenty drawn inside him that will kick up.

 

(2) The Harrovian just has this outstanding will to win and he’s going for his 12^th straight. This is his hardest test yet- away from Queensland, with 59kg and Brad Stewart on, but he’ll give his all and it wouldn’t shock to see him win again.

 

(7) Morvada could be the value with 54kg. He battled well behind Regardsmaree and Buffalo River last start, beaten 1.1L. Either of those horses would be favourite here. Three starts ago he was a nose off Sansom, who he meets 1.5kg better, and he gets D Lane replacing Will Price. He’s ultra-consistent and the $13/3.40 just seems a big price for a horse likely to find the front.

Bam’s On Fire is heading to Sydney so I’m happy to just play Morvada at the odds.

Tip: (7) Morvada- $13.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 unit EW Morvada

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Laverrod is the horse to beat. He carried top weight first up at this T/D and never got any peace in a similar race. He was sharing the lead in the middle of two horses who kept bumping him but fought on well for 3^rd, with the top 2 coming from off the speed much wider. That was his first run for 10 weeks, and 2^nd up last prep he denied Oakleigh Plate winner Celebrity Queen as a $7.50 chance. Olly takes over from Stockdale, which is a huge tick, he draws out wide and has the straight track experience.

 

(4) Defiant Dancer is the danger. His two wins to kick off the prep were very good, including a 3L demolition of Riding The Wave at this T/D. He then went to the Standish and started favourite, only beaten 1.4L by Sirius Suspect. I like the freshen up for the Stokes’ camp, he gets Rawiller’s 3kg claim and despite barrier one I think he’s a good play.

 

(6) Subedar drops back to 1200m which seems odd off a very good first up run at 1400m behind All Time Legend. That’s definitely good enough to win this and he finds J Kah, but I’d want him up to 1600m not back in trip. He likely gets back to last and might find these too sharp.

 

(7) I’m Telling Ya beat Laverrod last start but that was his 5^th win in 50 starts and he got a beautiful ride. I think Laverrod turns the tables with an easier run.

Tip: (3) Laverrod- $4.20 at TAB

Value: (4) Defiant Dancer- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Laverrod, 1 unit WIN Defiant Dancer

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Great race over 1000m, dominated by two very fast WA sprinters. (2) Fabergino is 3/4 at this T/D, the only unplaced effort coming last start in the Group 1 Lightning, beaten 2.5L by Nature Strip and crossing the line with Bivouac, whilst doing it solo out wide. If she brings that run, she could just be way too good for these. My only query is that was 2 weeks ago, and she generally has her runs spaced apart to keep her fresh. If she handles the smaller gap between runs, she’s clearly the horse to beat and should be under $3.

 

(4) Indian Pacific is no slouch and gets in with 55.5kg here. His 1000m record is outstanding with 5 wins from 6 starts, and he’s 3/3 first up, coming off 6 weeks between runs here. Brad Parnham makes the trip over to ride him and he’ll be in this for a long way.

 

(10) Muntaseera is a clear 3^rd pick. She’s trialled outstandingly heading into this and did win first up last prep before running 2^nd to Swats That which ties in Fabergino. She’s going to be the big closer late out wide, but these leaders will carve out some seriously fast mid race sectionals, so she’ll need to withstand that pressure between the 600-400.

 

(8) All Banter is way too short at $4.20. She’s won 3 in a row this prep but has beaten absolutely nothing and fell in after leading at Caulfield last start. I’d be laying her the place at anything around even money- I don’t think she troubles the top 3.

 

Very scared of Muntaseera but I’m backing the two proven 1000m speedsters who could just run these into the ground. If Fabergino was fresh for this she’d be a big bet, but I’ll be hedging the two and confident we get a result. Outlaying a fair bit but I think there’s value here and I’m attacking it.

Tip: (2) Fabergino- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Indian Pacific- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Fabergino, 2 units WIN Indian Pacific

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

An All Star Mile slot is up for grabs here, with (11) Buffalo River the clear favourite and perhaps more importantly, the clear leader. I just can’t see any serious pressure for the front so he should be able to own this race from barrier 6 with 55kg. The first up run when just getting run down by Regardsmaree, conceding him 5kg, was excellent, and 2^nd up last prep off a similar run he ran 2^nd to Mr Quickie in a Toorak at $4.80. Put simply, if Kah rates him well, he’ll be winning.

 

(7) Star Of The Seas was definitely a pass mark first up in Sydney behind Savatiano and Kolding. 2^nd up last prep he beat home Verry Elleegant in a George Main, on a good track. The extra trip will suit although he is 1200 up to 1600m, I just wonder where he gets to on the map. Waller drawing wide often means they go back, and if that’s the case I think he’ll struggle to give Buffalo River 5-6L head start. If they go forward and slot in it should be a great finish.

 

(9) Mahamedeis could be the blowout at big odds. He wasn’t bad first up behind Buffalo River, finishing 4L away and running the fastest last 200m of the entire meeting. His 2^nd up record is very good with 3 wins from 6 starts and although he’s probably better over 2000m, his 1600m record is quite good. Go back to the Spring of 2019 and he ran 2^nd to Homesman at 1600m in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes, beating home Surprise Baby, Fifty Stars and Best Of Days, the latter two he meets here. At $41/8.5 he’s a good e/w chance.

 

(6) Mystic Journey has been rolled at prohibitive quotes her last two in Tasmania. She loves this T/D, but I can’t see how you could back her off the last effort where she was off the bit a long way out and beaten 3.8L by Newhart.

Tip: (11) Buffalo River- $2.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Mahamedeis- $41 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Buffalo River, 0.25 units E/W Mahamedeis

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview and betting strategy for the Group 1 Australian Guineas, please follow the link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/australian-guineas-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

 

 

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Tricky race down the straight. (3) Rocketing By has won his last three, including last start over the likes of Prime Star, Ole Kirk and Dame Giselle. He’s got a great turn of foot which he might need because barrier one looks a bit sticky. If he’d drawn out, I’d be keener but in a fairly thin race I think he’s the horse to beat.

 

(6) Bella Nipotina was specked in that race to start $16, and I thought she battled on well, 2.4L off Rocketing By. I think she’s much better suited back to 1100m and has run well down the straight before, including a 0.9L 4^th to Written Beauty at this T/D last prep. She’s drawn out wide which could be the advantage.

 

(13) Celestine was 3^rd in that Red Roses and did win her only other run down the straight. She has to be respected here first up.

 

(10) Written Miss is unbeaten from 3 starts and likely leads here. She fell in over 1200m down the straight last prep, and I think 1100m is probably her limit at this stage of her career.

Tip: (3) Rocketing By- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) Bella Nipotina- $8.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rocketing By, 0.5 units WIN Bella Nipotina

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Open race for the mares. (2) Greysful Glamour looks to lead and is a horse I have plenty of time for. Her 1400m record is solid and first up last prep she was 1.1L off Dreamforce in the group 2 Tramway. My query is the Melbourne way of going- her last 4 runs in Melbourne have all been awful, although she has had excuses. Two were on soft ground which she simply hates, and the other two she pulled up with lameness or EIPH. She’s got an All Star Mile slot, so I’d expect she’s fairly forward for this. Currie is riding very well at the moment and she could run these into the ground.

 

(11) Chaillot will be one of the big closers late, so this could be track pattern dependent. She won first up at this T/D last prep, coming from last to run down Titan Blinders. Her run in the Empire Rose was very good, 4^th beaten 0.8L by Shout The Bar, who she meets 3kg better here.

 

(4) Affair To Remember has never been one of mine but for a mare who often gets a long way back, she’s still won 25% of her races. I think she’ll get better with racing- it took her a couple of runs last prep to really hit her straps and although she might be more forward this time in looking for an ASM slot, I think she might just be flashing late.

 

(8) Snapdancer hasn’t done much wrong and was well backed against Probabeel last start over 1200m. Not sure about the 1400m for her off that run but she’s going well.

 

(6) In Good Health came of age last prep and ran very well in stronger races against the boys. 1400m is as short as she wants it but she wouldn’t shock completely.

 

The map for Greysful Glamour has me swinging her way despite her recent Melbourne record. She should be forward enough to win this and a repeat of her first up run last prep probably does. Something on Chaillot who I think will be the best closer at 1400m.

Tip: (2) Greysful Glamour- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (11) Chaillot- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Greysful Glamour, 1 unit WIN Chaillot