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Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 27th

Sydney hosts its first Group 1s of 2021 at Randwick this Saturday and Tim Geers provides his tips for every race below.

Colette-Randwick

Sydney hosts its first Group 1s of 2021 at Randwick this Saturday, with the Chipping Norton Stakes and Surround Stakes headlining a nine-race card.

We see a number of horses out of the Apollo Stakes meet again in the Chipping Norton, while the three-year-old fillies clash in the Surround.

Track conditions will be all important; the track is currently rated a Soft 7 but that could improve if the minimal amount of rain misses Randwick.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his betting tips below – his best bet comes up in Race 8, while his best value is in Race 7, which is the Surround Stakes.

Best Bet: Race 8 – (10) Great House

Best Value: Race 7 – (7) Never Talk

0

Race 1

Tab Highway Hcp (C2) (1000m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tab Highway Hcp (C2) (1000m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

1. Leo (8) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: Mark Schmetzer
77776.46.5
2. Mr Magical (10) J: Tom Marquand (58.5kg) T: Jamie Stewart
1010101110.810
3. Standing Bear (6) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: A P Ball
4. Washington Towers (16) J: Billy Owen (58.5kg) T: Todd Smart
2726313128.531
5. Last Chance Dance (15) J: Billy Cray (57kg) T: S I Singleton
1616161815.615
6. Water Dove (3) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: B F Cavanough
2.352.42.42.32.52.4
7. Superior Witness (13) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: Luke A Thomas
1212121212.612
8. Qadira Star (1) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Sally Taylor
2326212626.523
9. Tango Stepz (4) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: R P Northam
1111111110.811
10. Pee Dee (7) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: P M Farrell
354141413441
11. Military Bay (5) J: James Innes Jnr (55.5kg) T: Mark Schmetzer
313134343334
12. Married (14) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (55kg) T: Ben Blay
262626262426
13. Social Smile (2) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: F S Cleary
464151415141
14. La Cronica (12) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Shannon Manwarring
15. Quideem (11) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: J W Marzol
617191817981
16. Stunning Mosa (9) J: Sam Clipperton (54kg) T: Mark Schmetzer
1718191916.219

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Geez I hate betting into Highway races but I’m going to break my rule of avoiding them because there is just so much to like about (6) Water Dove here. She won her first two career starts, which included a dominant first up display, before running 2nd to Art Cadeau over 1100m here in a very similar race last start. Art Cadeau then came out and won the Goulburn qualifier for the Country Championships, taking his record to four wins and six 2nds from 10 starts. I think that’s a very reliable form line. The blinkers go on Water Dove for the first time here, she’s won on soft ground previously and should be right up at the pointy end of the field from the good draw. She wouldn’t have to improve much to be winning this.

(1) Leo won a harder race than this first up last preparation on a wet track. She then went on to run 4th to It’s Me which is a very hot formline. Has to carry extra weight but Bowman booked first up is a positive lead.

(2) Mr Magical went very close first up and should run well again.

Tip: (6) Water Dove $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Water Dove

0

Race 2

Precise Air Skyline Stakes (1200m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Precise Air Skyline Stakes (1200m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

1. Shaquero (1) J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
3.63.62.353.43.453.4
2. Captivant (2) J: Tom Marquand (55.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
3.63.63.43.83.853.4
3. Head Of State (4) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
4. Sing A Love Song (8) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: J A O'shea
111021119.911
5. O'president (9) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
8.58.57.598.79
6. Hilal (6) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
33.353.23.23.4
7. Seething Seb (5) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg) T: Ms K Owen
126126151201191126
8. Tristate (3) J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings
262681312926
9. Sir Rastus (7) J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg) T: Jason & Lucy Attard
126126101201161151

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think (1) Shaquero is very short here off the back of his win in the Gold Coast Magic Millions. I query the strength of that form and there’s a few horses here with plenty of ability.

(6) Hilal was very heavily backed on debut and came from a near impossible position to win. It was only a midweek race and the margin was small, but with any luck at all he would have gapped them.

(2) Captivant won on debut before running 4th in the Golden Gift. He’s trialled very well leading into his reappearance today. My query is James McDonald rode him in both trials but commits to riding a Waller horse here, while Jason Collett rode him in both race starts but takes the ride on John O’Shea’s horse here. Tom Marquand picks up the ride, the blinkers go on for the first time and it will be very interesting to see what the market does with him.

(4) Sing A Love Song is the horse Jason Collett rides and he brings solid form behind the likes of Rocket Tiger, Zethus and Home Affairs. Blinkers go on first time and he certainly isn’t hopeless.

Tip: (6) Hilal $4.80 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Hilal

0

Race 3

Drinkwise Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Drinkwise Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

1. She's All Class (14) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
4.84.64.64.84.64.8
2. Nice For What (6) J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1517101919.215
3. Mallory (12) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
554.64.84.854.8
4. Sliders (8) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
5. Four Moves Ahead (7) J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg) T: J G Sargent
2.72.73.32.72.82.7
6. Robodira (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: J A O'shea
1918181917.818
7. Jamaea (1) J: Brock Ryan (55.5kg) T: R & L Price
1012131112.211
8. Hi Hi Hi (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg) T: G Portelli
171920192019
9. Mistaken Identity (5) J: Glen Boss (55.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
10110134101111126
10. Collier Bay (3) J: Andrew Adkins (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings
10110181101101126
11. Testimonial (13) J: Tom Marquand (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
12. Centro Storico (4) J: Robbie Dolan (55.5kg) T: Richard Litt
15112671151161201
13. Emerald Bay (11) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
464134413351
14. Northuldra (9) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
1617181616.218
15. Cap Estel (15) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Happy to just sit and watch this race as I don’t have a decent read on it.

The favourite (5) Four Moves Ahead couldn’t have been more impressive on debut, sitting wide without cover throughout before bursting clear to win by a space. She’s had a small setback leading into today’s run though, which always rings alarm bells for me.

(1) She’s All Class was well backed to win the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast but had a fairly ordinary run throughout, sitting four-wide the trip. She was still only beaten 2.5L in 3rd, and her win in the Wyong Magic Millions before that was huge. No doubt she can bounce back if she brings her best.

(3) Mallory impressed me with her victory first up and back in 3rd was Vianello, who then came out and ran a luckless 2nd to Stay Inside. The map is the difficult thing for Mallory here and she may just find one too good, but I think she’s a serious chance here and if I were to bet in the race, she’s probably the way I’d lean.

(2) Nice For What next best.

Tip: (3) Mallory $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 4

Quayclean Liverpool City Cup (1300m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Quayclean Liverpool City Cup (1300m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

1. Greyworm (8) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
6.56665.55.5
2. Trumbull (11) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: Ms K Waugh
665.5665.5
3. Deprive (4) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: James Cummings
1313131412.813
4. I Am Superman (7) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: P & P Snowden
5. Think It Over (1) J: Glen Boss (57kg) T: K J Parker
515167615961
6. All Saints' Eve (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: J A O'shea
1918171918.417
7. Looks Like Elvis (2) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: J M Austin
353434413534
8. Reloaded (3) J: Tom Marquand (54kg) T: C J Waller
1718181919.219
9. Brave Song (6) J: Robbie Dolan (53.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
10. Criaderas (5) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: James Cummings
2.92.92.932.952.9
11. Discharged (9) J: Tim Clark (53kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
3.944.443.94.2

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think (10) Criaderas is probably the best horse in the race and so I’m backing him accordingly. He’s undefeated first up from a spell, gets in light with 53kg and the track should pose no problem for him. If he can sit a touch closer than what he’d been doing last prep, he’d be very hard to beat.

(2) Trumbull has an outstanding first up record with four wins from six starts. He’s won two from three at the track, James McDonald is booked first up, and he’s undefeated on soft ground. The gate is a bit awkward but I think the $8.00 is a good price.

(5) Think It Over is likely to need 2000m later this prep but he’s an enormous price at $61 fresh here. He’s actually undefeated at this distance and he’s finished in the top two in four of his five starts when first up.

(1) Greyworm next best.

Tip: (10) Criaderas $4.40 TAB

Value: (2) Trumbull $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Criaderas, 1 unit WIN Trumbull

0

Race 5

Guy Walter Proven Tbred Stks (1400m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Guy Walter Proven Tbred Stks (1400m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. Funstar (2) J: Tommy Berry (58kg) T: C J Waller
2. Greysful Glamour (4) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Mark Newnham
3. Reelem In Ruby (7) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
1817111917.416
4. Sweet Deal (3) J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg) T: John Thompson
3.23.26.53.23.13.2
5. Bam's On Fire (5) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
5.55.5855.45.5
6. Emeralds (10) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: J G Sargent
8.598.58.58.38.5
7. Icebath (6) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Brad Widdup
44.24.84.44.254.2
8. Krone (9) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: T J Gollan
1616201818.216
9. Tricky Gal (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: Matthew Smith
6.566.566.26
10. Helga (1) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: L J Bridge
10110181101141126

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I don’t think I’ve ever had this horse on my side but I really think (6) Emeralds is a bet today. Her first up run behind Savatiano and Kolding was very good and she’s won two of her three starts when second up from a spell.

(5) Bam’s On Fire didn’t get a great deal of luck behind Probabeel first up, and that horse then came out and won a G1 at her next start, so the form looks very solid. James McDonald jumps aboard today, she’s placed in every start on soft ground and at her best, she’d be very competitive.

(7) Icebath and (9) Tricky Gal met first up behind Tailleur, where Tricky Gal had the measure of Icebath even after racing wide throughout. Her second up record isn’t as strong as her outstanding first up record, so that’s some query, while Icebath will be suited getting up to 1400m but I might just watch her once more before backing her.

(4) Sweet Deal finds a very suitable race in terms of quality, but it’s interesting to note she resumes over 1400m this time in, compared to when she’s won over the shorter trips first up in her past two campaigns.

Tip: (6) Emeralds $6.50 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Emeralds

0

Race 6

Tab Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Tab Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

1. Kolding (2) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: C J Waller
4.54.454.44.054.6
2. Avilius (7) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: James Cummings
2021152121.519
3. Southern France (3) J: Jason Collett (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8191818110181
4. Master Of Wine (9) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2021122120.521
5. Prince Fawaz (1) J: Tom Marquand (59kg) T: A J Cummings
12615181201181151
6. Verry Elleegant (4) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
2.32.32.72.32.42.3
7. Colette (8) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: James Cummings
3.63.733.83.853.6
8. Funstar (5) J: Glen Boss (57kg) T: C J Waller
1614111516.212
9. Toffee Tongue (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: C J Waller
515126516351

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

The first Group 1 on the card is the Chipping Norton Stakes and the track rating at this time of the day will prove critical. Assuming we’re on a rain-affected track, I think (7) Colette can win again and follow up on her first up victory in the Apollo Stakes. She faces a trickier map from barrier 8 but she might well be the best wet tracker in the country. She’s undefeated from five starts in the wet, which includes a G3, G2, G1 and a Golden Eagle.

(6) Verry Elleegant gets the good draw second up and stepping up to the mile, so might be able to sit a bit closer. She’s also a very good wet tracker but I thought Colette had her covered first up and Colette might be just as suited stepping up in distance as Verry Elleegant is.

I think the sneaky chance in the race, and the value, is (8) Funstar. She was outclassed first up in the Apollo but if she’s ever going to win one of these races, something like this set up is what she needs. She has an outstanding second up record, with three wins and a 2nd from four starts. She has a terrific record at Randwick, has never finished out of the top two from three starts at the track and distance, goes well in the wet, and might be able to take up a position right on speed with no tempo on paper.

If the track ends up a Good 4 or Soft 5, (1) Kolding almost becomes the horse to beat.

Tip: (7) Colette $3.30 Sportsbetting

Value: (8) Funstar $12 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Colette, 0.25 units WIN Funstar

0

Race 7

Cellarbrations Surround Stakes (1400m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Cellarbrations Surround Stakes (1400m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

1. Montefilia (11) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: David Payne
661066.26
2. Away Game (14) J: Glen Boss (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
151681615.212
3. Dame Giselle (9) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
4.84.84.654.954.8
4. Every Rose (16) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Mark Newnham
171718161517
5. Hungry Heart (17) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
991098.39.5
6. Forbidden Love (3) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
1110149.510.210
7. Never Talk (7) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: K A Lees
7.57.59.57.57.87.5
8. Vangelic (8) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
313119312734
9. La Mexicana (10) J: Tom Marquand (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
10106111110
10. Thermosphere (5) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: James Cummings
212116212126
11. Elizabeel (13) J: Robbie Dolan (56kg) T: J G Sargent
262621262526
12. Joviality (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: C J Waller
616734616571
13. Philizzy (2) J: Andrew Adkins (56kg) T: A J Cummings
91101818197126
14. Love Sensation (1) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: K L Corstens
414141414341
15. Miravalle (6) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Mark Newnham
2726262627.526
16. Eight Diamonds (12) J: Jay Ford (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
515181615151
17. Pippali (15) J: Unknown (56kg) T: J C Coyle

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

The second Group 1 is the Surround Stakes for the three-year-old fillies.

I’ve got a lot of time for (7) Never Talk, who was one of the runs of the day last start in the Light Fingers Stakes. She came from the back of the field and hit the line powerfully to be beaten the narrowest of margins, despite encountering traffic problems in the straight. Add to that the fact she was vetted behind the gates pre-race, and it makes her effort very admirable. Prior to that she had no luck at all at Rosehill, and that followed a dominant win on wet ground three runs back. I think she’s a decent price here at $9.00.

If the track dries out, I think (3) Dame Giselle becomes a major player. Even at a Soft 5, she’s right in this. She travels so well into her races and has an electric turn of foot, but she’s at her best on the firmer surfaces. The gate is a little bit tricky but if she gets across and lands on speed, she’ll give this a major shake.

(1) Montefilia returns first up off an Oaks campaign, which I’m always a very harsh marker of. She’s obviously got the ability but I personally don’t like the fillies resuming over 1400m after running over 2500m at the end of last prep.

(5) Hungry Heart was sacked after her first up run but JMac sticks and Waller will have her spot on for her Group 1 assignment here. Suddenly she goes around at double figure odds so she’ll probably pop up and win.

(9) La Mexicana is five from seven in her career, which has all been done in Melbourne. She’s undefeated on wet tracks and we have seen horses come through the Kevin Hayes Stakes before winning this in the past.

Tip: (7) Never Talk $9.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (3) Dame Giselle $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Never Talk, 0.5 units WIN Dame Giselle

0

Race 8

Heineken (Bm88) (2000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Heineken (Bm88) (2000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Soldier Of Love (8) J: Joshua Parr (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker
415141514734
2. Yonkers (7) J: Hugh Bowman (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
2121212120.523
3. Scarlet Dream (4) J: Sam Clipperton (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
4. Kiss The Bride (11) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
1414141413.614
5. Mohican Heights (10) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
181718191817
6. Trevelyan (5) J: Tom Marquand (56kg) T: Stephen O'halloran
354141414341
7. Kaapfever (1) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
101099.58.99
8. Realm Of Flowers (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: A & S Freedman
181715181814
9. California Longbow (12) J: James Innes Jnr (54kg) T: P & P Snowden
10. Great House (13) J: Tommy Berry (53kg) T: C J Waller
2.62.452.52.52.52.5
11. Lamu (3) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: Ms G Englebrecht
12. Dame Kiri (6) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: A J Denham
1817191919.218
13. Sky Lab (9) J: Robbie Dolan (52kg) T: P M Perry
3.23.23.43.23.153.4

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Best bet of the day comes up here in the form of former European import (10) Great House. He’s had two starts in Australia, with a sound effort first up over the mile followed by a dominant display when stepped up to this distance last start. He came from back in the field and put the race to bed very quickly, eased down to win by 2.8L. He remains at 2000m today and although he’s drawn out wide, it’s less of an issue given he goes back anyway. Rises in grade but carries 53kg and if he improves on what he did last start, I don’t see him getting beat.

His logical danger looks to be (13) Sky Lab who is flying. He’s now won three races on the bounce and he steps up to 2000m for the first time here. While I think he’ll handle that step up in distance, the difference between him and Great House is the other horse has ticked that box. He’s likely to be back in the field as well so we may see them pair off to fight it out.

Tip: (10) Great House $2.60 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Great House

0

Race 9

Acy Securities (Bm88) (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Acy Securities (Bm88) (1200m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

1. Poetic Charmer (5) J: Tom Sherry (60kg) T: P & P Snowden
98.5999.18.5
2. Into The Abyss (1) J: Tom Marquand (57.5kg) T: John Thompson
1917191919.219
3. Lina's Hero (10) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: C J Waller
111111111111
4. Subedar (2) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
5. Zakat (3) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
2.22.22.22.32.22.2
6. Lucicello (4) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: C J Waller
98.5999.18.5
7. He's A Hotshot (7) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
141616151416
8. Bound To Win (11) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: P & P Snowden
5.565.55.55.25.5
9. Philizzy (8) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: A J Cummings
10. Liberty Sun (9) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (52kg) T: G Mcfarlane
1517171816.817
11. Epic Dan (6) J: Andrew Adkins (52kg) T: G D Hickman
353441343841

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Won’t be getting involved in the last race here.

(5) Zakat should be winning after a brave first up run down the straight at Flemington. Returns to Sydney now and two of his three career wins have come second up from a spell. He’s got a great record at this distance, JMac goes on and he appreciates a bit of sting out of the track. He is a horse that can run a placing so I think he’s short enough.

He’s the only horse I’d be interested in backing but there’s no value in the current market.

Tip: (5) Zakat $2.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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