Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 27th

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Geez I hate betting into Highway races but I’m going to break my rule of avoiding them because there is just so much to like about (6) Water Dove here. She won her first two career starts, which included a dominant first up display, before running 2^nd to Art Cadeau over 1100m here in a very similar race last start. Art Cadeau then came out and won the Goulburn qualifier for the Country Championships, taking his record to four wins and six 2nds from 10 starts. I think that’s a very reliable form line. The blinkers go on Water Dove for the first time here, she’s won on soft ground previously and should be right up at the pointy end of the field from the good draw. She wouldn’t have to improve much to be winning this.

(1) Leo won a harder race than this first up last preparation on a wet track. She then went on to run 4^th to It’s Me which is a very hot formline. Has to carry extra weight but Bowman booked first up is a positive lead.

(2) Mr Magical went very close first up and should run well again.

Tip: (6) Water Dove $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Water Dove

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think (1) Shaquero is very short here off the back of his win in the Gold Coast Magic Millions. I query the strength of that form and there’s a few horses here with plenty of ability.

(6) Hilal was very heavily backed on debut and came from a near impossible position to win. It was only a midweek race and the margin was small, but with any luck at all he would have gapped them.

(2) Captivant won on debut before running 4^th in the Golden Gift. He’s trialled very well leading into his reappearance today. My query is James McDonald rode him in both trials but commits to riding a Waller horse here, while Jason Collett rode him in both race starts but takes the ride on John O’Shea’s horse here. Tom Marquand picks up the ride, the blinkers go on for the first time and it will be very interesting to see what the market does with him.

(4) Sing A Love Song is the horse Jason Collett rides and he brings solid form behind the likes of Rocket Tiger, Zethus and Home Affairs. Blinkers go on first time and he certainly isn’t hopeless.

Tip: (6) Hilal $4.80 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Hilal

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Happy to just sit and watch this race as I don’t have a decent read on it.

The favourite (5) Four Moves Ahead couldn’t have been more impressive on debut, sitting wide without cover throughout before bursting clear to win by a space. She’s had a small setback leading into today’s run though, which always rings alarm bells for me.

(1) She’s All Class was well backed to win the Magic Millions 2YO Classic on the Gold Coast but had a fairly ordinary run throughout, sitting four-wide the trip. She was still only beaten 2.5L in 3^rd, and her win in the Wyong Magic Millions before that was huge. No doubt she can bounce back if she brings her best.

(3) Mallory impressed me with her victory first up and back in 3^rd was Vianello, who then came out and ran a luckless 2^nd to Stay Inside. The map is the difficult thing for Mallory here and she may just find one too good, but I think she’s a serious chance here and if I were to bet in the race, she’s probably the way I’d lean.

(2) Nice For What next best.

Tip: (3) Mallory $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think (10) Criaderas is probably the best horse in the race and so I’m backing him accordingly. He’s undefeated first up from a spell, gets in light with 53kg and the track should pose no problem for him. If he can sit a touch closer than what he’d been doing last prep, he’d be very hard to beat.

(2) Trumbull has an outstanding first up record with four wins from six starts. He’s won two from three at the track, James McDonald is booked first up, and he’s undefeated on soft ground. The gate is a bit awkward but I think the $8.00 is a good price.

(5) Think It Over is likely to need 2000m later this prep but he’s an enormous price at $61 fresh here. He’s actually undefeated at this distance and he’s finished in the top two in four of his five starts when first up.

(1) Greyworm next best.

Tip: (10) Criaderas $4.40 TAB

Value: (2) Trumbull $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Criaderas, 1 unit WIN Trumbull

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I don’t think I’ve ever had this horse on my side but I really think (6) Emeralds is a bet today. Her first up run behind Savatiano and Kolding was very good and she’s won two of her three starts when second up from a spell.

(5) Bam’s On Fire didn’t get a great deal of luck behind Probabeel first up, and that horse then came out and won a G1 at her next start, so the form looks very solid. James McDonald jumps aboard today, she’s placed in every start on soft ground and at her best, she’d be very competitive.

(7) Icebath and (9) Tricky Gal met first up behind Tailleur, where Tricky Gal had the measure of Icebath even after racing wide throughout. Her second up record isn’t as strong as her outstanding first up record, so that’s some query, while Icebath will be suited getting up to 1400m but I might just watch her once more before backing her.

(4) Sweet Deal finds a very suitable race in terms of quality, but it’s interesting to note she resumes over 1400m this time in, compared to when she’s won over the shorter trips first up in her past two campaigns.

Tip: (6) Emeralds $6.50 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Emeralds

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

The first Group 1 on the card is the Chipping Norton Stakes and the track rating at this time of the day will prove critical. Assuming we’re on a rain-affected track, I think (7) Colette can win again and follow up on her first up victory in the Apollo Stakes. She faces a trickier map from barrier 8 but she might well be the best wet tracker in the country. She’s undefeated from five starts in the wet, which includes a G3, G2, G1 and a Golden Eagle.

(6) Verry Elleegant gets the good draw second up and stepping up to the mile, so might be able to sit a bit closer. She’s also a very good wet tracker but I thought Colette had her covered first up and Colette might be just as suited stepping up in distance as Verry Elleegant is.

I think the sneaky chance in the race, and the value, is (8) Funstar. She was outclassed first up in the Apollo but if she’s ever going to win one of these races, something like this set up is what she needs. She has an outstanding second up record, with three wins and a 2^nd from four starts. She has a terrific record at Randwick, has never finished out of the top two from three starts at the track and distance, goes well in the wet, and might be able to take up a position right on speed with no tempo on paper.

If the track ends up a Good 4 or Soft 5, (1) Kolding almost becomes the horse to beat.

Tip: (7) Colette $3.30 Sportsbetting

Value: (8) Funstar $12 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Colette, 0.25 units WIN Funstar

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

The second Group 1 is the Surround Stakes for the three-year-old fillies.

I’ve got a lot of time for (7) Never Talk, who was one of the runs of the day last start in the Light Fingers Stakes. She came from the back of the field and hit the line powerfully to be beaten the narrowest of margins, despite encountering traffic problems in the straight. Add to that the fact she was vetted behind the gates pre-race, and it makes her effort very admirable. Prior to that she had no luck at all at Rosehill, and that followed a dominant win on wet ground three runs back. I think she’s a decent price here at $9.00.

If the track dries out, I think (3) Dame Giselle becomes a major player. Even at a Soft 5, she’s right in this. She travels so well into her races and has an electric turn of foot, but she’s at her best on the firmer surfaces. The gate is a little bit tricky but if she gets across and lands on speed, she’ll give this a major shake.

(1) Montefilia returns first up off an Oaks campaign, which I’m always a very harsh marker of. She’s obviously got the ability but I personally don’t like the fillies resuming over 1400m after running over 2500m at the end of last prep.

(5) Hungry Heart was sacked after her first up run but JMac sticks and Waller will have her spot on for her Group 1 assignment here. Suddenly she goes around at double figure odds so she’ll probably pop up and win.

(9) La Mexicana is five from seven in her career, which has all been done in Melbourne. She’s undefeated on wet tracks and we have seen horses come through the Kevin Hayes Stakes before winning this in the past.

Tip: (7) Never Talk $9.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (3) Dame Giselle $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Never Talk, 0.5 units WIN Dame Giselle

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Best bet of the day comes up here in the form of former European import (10) Great House. He’s had two starts in Australia, with a sound effort first up over the mile followed by a dominant display when stepped up to this distance last start. He came from back in the field and put the race to bed very quickly, eased down to win by 2.8L. He remains at 2000m today and although he’s drawn out wide, it’s less of an issue given he goes back anyway. Rises in grade but carries 53kg and if he improves on what he did last start, I don’t see him getting beat.

His logical danger looks to be (13) Sky Lab who is flying. He’s now won three races on the bounce and he steps up to 2000m for the first time here. While I think he’ll handle that step up in distance, the difference between him and Great House is the other horse has ticked that box. He’s likely to be back in the field as well so we may see them pair off to fight it out.

Tip: (10) Great House $2.60 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Great House

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Won’t be getting involved in the last race here.

(5) Zakat should be winning after a brave first up run down the straight at Flemington. Returns to Sydney now and two of his three career wins have come second up from a spell. He’s got a great record at this distance, JMac goes on and he appreciates a bit of sting out of the track. He is a horse that can run a placing so I think he’s short enough.

He’s the only horse I’d be interested in backing but there’s no value in the current market.

Tip: (5) Zakat $2.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet