Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 15th

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 12:37pm (AEDT)

Siding with (5) Maximillius on debut. I’ve liked both jumpouts at Cranbourne, both under little riding. He won the first, extending well through the line to beat Bonheur, who was well respected and ran well in what looks a strong 2yo race at Caulfield. The 2nd she was just as good, again under little riding, extending past the one that stuck to the fence after the post. With Kah on expect him to get every chance.

(7) English Riviera has jumped out in a different fashion- ridden out quite strongly at Terang but he did come away from them after a bit of encouragement. No shock to see him wind up and charge to the line.

(1) Jamarra did well to run 2nd to Jacquinot last start who looks well above average. The race experience will count for a fair bit.

(4) Lofty Strike has jumped out well, firstly behind Maximillius and then winning one himself. Drawn the rails, he can run well on debut at a price. 

Not a big bet by any means, but I do want to have something on Maximillius who looks to have plenty up his sleeve off the jumpouts. 

Tip: (5) Maximillius- $3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Maximillius

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 1:12pm (AEDT)

(1) Decent Raine was a moral beaten last start when unable to get clear running. She ties in easily through Treporti who was no match for Squid Game on debut. She’s been up a long time but keeps running well.

(4) Attractable has looked good winning two this prep in good times. She was given a great ride last start from a wide gate and whilst she didn’t beat much in a class 1, it was a good win.

(3) Philadelphia Storm was too good at this T/D last start in this grade, which was a solid rating performance. He’s up 3kg in weight but no reason to knock him with a good map.

Squid Game came out as I was typing this on Thursday afternoon and I’m happy to stay out now.

Tip: (1) Decent Raine- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 1:47pm (AEDT)

I think (7) Somerset Maugham is the one to beat, but I do think we might get a slightly better price because he hasn’t been missed by the market. He should’ve won last start when badly held up and the extra 100m is only going to help. Down on 53kg, with even luck he should be going close. 

(1) Dark Dream is a tricky one. He was very good last week in a high rating race, but that 2000m and now he drops back to what looks a moderately run 1700m race. Not sure he’ll be able to sprint as effectively with 60kg given the set up.

(2) Pancho might need one more but wasn’t too bad first up over an unsuitable 1400m. 2nd up last prep he ran okay over a mile behind Degraves but he is up to this class. 

(8) Under My Spell is racing well and rushed home last start from a long way back. She’s been reported to be racing in foal, which is never a good sign for a mare and I’m happy to oppose given that. 

Tip: (7) Somerset Maugham- $2.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Somerset Maugham (Betfair Starting Price)

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 2:22pm (AEDT)

(2) Fighting Arrow will need tempo on but looks to get it. He was dominant at Geelong three back before struggling in a very slowly run race at The Valley. He got the blinkers added last start, settled a bit closer and bolted in again against the older horses. He should appreciate Flemington and will be strong late.

(4) Dunkerry got things to suit last start at Stony Creek, leading all the way but doing it easily to win by 5.5L. Drawn barrier 11 with Linda on, he should roll to the front again and go along at a decent clip. 

(5) Elzamee was a tough winner on debut when wide and sticking on. Up to 2000m should suit and he gets Kah on. 

(7) Emerging will be strong late dropping back in trip from 2400m. The run prior behind Salto Angel was good. 

Tip: (2) Fighting Arrow- $7.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Fighting Arrow

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 2:57pm (AEDT)

(4) Not To Be Mist looks well placed here on the minimum. He carried the same weight last start in listed grade and raced wide in a race where they went 4.5L above average early, only beaten 1.45L by Lighthouse. His win over It’sourtime prior was good and if he maintains that form he’s the one to beat. 

(7) Fundraiser was excellent first up down the straight, running the fastest last 600m of the race with 61kg. He’s much better suited at 1400m 2nd up, dropping 7kg and drawing well. His one go in open grade he was well beaten in a stronger race but 2nd up last prep he did hit the line well behind Corner Pocket. 

(3) Morrisy is ready to go forward now. He worked through the okay in a fast run 1100m behind Marabi last start and should be ready 3rd up where he’s never missed a place. He looks well placed, again on the minimum given he’s a 90 rater and has won an open handicap before. If this were at Caulfield I’d be very keen, but I still think he’s overs.

(2) Blazejowski isn’t racing badly but has had his chances and I’m jumping off.

With Fundraiser out, having an extra 0.5 units on Not To Be Mist.

Tip: (4) Not To Be Mist- $3.40 at Ladbrokes

Value: (3) Morrisy- $18.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Not To Be Mist, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Morrisy

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 3:32pm (AEDT)

Big field, interesting race. (1) Over The Sky has a good first up record and has jumped out well. He’s well up to this grade, Stockdale just needs to keep him out of trouble and find the running line.

(8) Field Of Roses resumed well with a nice win at Sandown, coming from near last to win well. The race didn’t rate very well but she can go better than that.

(9) Fiery Red might be overs. 2nd up off a 6 week let up, he stuck on very well in a race dominated by the swoopers at Caulfield last start in a bm78. He goes up 2.5kg but the middle draw gives Teo options to sit behind the speed, potentially even 1-1. 

(18) Worthily is an interesting one. He’s only had three starts and the 2nd was in the English Derby, so he’s clearly shown plenty of talent. He’s jumped out well enough but 1400m is obviously going to be short of his best. 

Tip: (9) Fiery Red- $20.00/5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Fiery Red

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 4:12pm (AEDT)

Feature of the day is the Standish Handicap. (5) Mileva is an interesting one. She’s flying but 1200m is a query. She was too good in the Kensington over 1000m and rock solid prior in a high rating race over 1100m, but her last 200m was the 6th fastest of the race after putting in a very good 400-200m split. 

(8) Munitions looks a bit of value. His run at this T/D during Cup week was good, only beaten 3L by Quantico in a very high rating race. The two runs since have been good, beaten 4L by Marabi on Boxing Day. The inside draw isn’t ideal but $26 is a fair price.

(10) It’sourtime is on the backup from last week where he battled well up the inside with 59.5kg. Up to 1200m looks ideal and he drops 5.5kg. 

(1) The Astrologist is so hard to knock down the straight and will just keep kicking. He’s a group 3 winner and group 2 placed at this T/D and despite the weight will be hard to get past. 

(2) Halvorsen might now be looking for 1200m after hitting the line well behind Mileva in the Kensington with 60kg. His record at the T/D isn’t great but he did win this race in 2020 and he’s back in form now. Drops to 56kg and Kah takes the ride from a suitable wide barrier. 

Incredibly open but Halvorsen can win this race again, he looks well placed dropping in weight and drawn wide. Munitions is the blowout. 

Tip: (2) Halvorsen- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Munitions- $26.00/5.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Halvorsen, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Munitions

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 4:52pm (AEDT)

Open race again. (4) Brasada ran well last start, his first go at 2000m but Unique Artist was far too good in a fairly high rating race. He’s drawn very wide this time but will be better for that run.

(5) Convict Sam was the better closer in that race after being restrained at the start. Josh Richards replaces Alana Kelly and perhaps he’ll be a bit more aggressive early. If that’s the case, he can settle just off midfield and be hard to hold out.

(3) Nerve Not Verve can run well at odds. She’s down in grade from a bm84 which went above standard despite the bunched finish and was only 2nd up there. Back to a bm70, she can roll forward and be in this for a long way.

(15) Benefactress is the other blowout chance. She missed the kick but did a good job to win last start at Geelong, beating Irish Playboy. She’s on a 9 day back up, D Lane sticks which is a huge tick given his record on her, and now fully fit she can run well.

Tip: (4) Brasada- $9.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (3) Nerve Not Verve- $23.00 at TAB

Value: (15) Benefactress- $31.00 at Sportsbet

Saver: (5) Convict Sam- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Brasada, 0.25 units WIN Convict Sam, 0.25 units WIN Nerve Not Verve, 0.25 units WIN Benefactress

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2022, 5:37pm (AEDT)

(1) Flandersrain wasn’t bad first up in a stronger race, a bit tight for room in the straight and not beaten all that far. 2nd up last prep off a similar first up run she bolted in by 4.25L and then went on to beat Imperial Lad in a bm78. She can box seat from barrier 1 and run well.

(6) Mrs Sippy should’ve won last start if not 3 wide no cover the trip, just missing Stay Gold who snuck up the fence. If this were 1400m I’d be keener to back her again, just not sure about her at the mile.

(3) Modern Millie is a UK import having her first run for Waller. The 1600m suits and if there’s market support be wary. The trials have been okay without raving, the latest working through the line fairly well.

(10) Picaroon brings different form from SA and is racing well. 

Tip: (1) Flandersrain- $15.00/4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Flandersrain