Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 16th

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Two words: Jamie Kah. It is tough to go against her here on (2) Parlophone. Lightly raced and proven first-up, she steps back in grade to what she has been competing in. This preparation she placed sixth in a Group 3 behind Bella Nipotina, before gaining the same result behind September Run. The wide draw may be a good thing, she can drop in behind the speedy (6) Aquagirl and take the outside when needed.

The danger is (7) Tiny who has posted some tidy times winning a BM68 and placing in FMB-78. Second behind a nice one in Subedar reads well.

Tip: (2) Parlophone $2.95 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

At the risk of jinxing her, Jamie Kah gets a great chance here to get the early double. (4) Hasseltoff previously won at this track and distance, and gets a handy draw in this small field. (7) Dance Ready looks the hesitant leader, allowing Kah to gain the cushy one-back inside run. It’s the ideal spot for her, and with her previous closing 600 metre times better than main danger (3) Saccharo, she looks every chance.

The Ellerton/Zahra runner (5) High ‘n’ Dry will also be in the mix. With the bookies offering their promotions in the early races (the best being TAB’s in-venue), I think you’re going to be hard-pressed not to get something back here following the Hoff.

Tip: (4) Hasseltoff $2.20 TAB

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

There are two runners that interest me, the first is (4) Absolute Flirt. Favourite for good reason, she races best first-up and has the Danny O’Brien & Damian Oliver combination. First up last preparation she competed in listed grade and just got done on the line by Sangria. That was also at Flemington. She was competing in Group 3 company early on, which is the only reason she is 2 wins from 14—but she is right up to this FMB-78.

The danger is (7) Modear who faces her own sex and can improve. While (2) Causeway Girl is also right in contention. Will Price will want to continue his winning form from last night.

Tip: (4) Absolute Flirt $2.60 Unibet

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This is a lot tougher. The double-figures of (2) Chequerboard looks appealing here as an each-way play. The Fastnet Rock filly rises in grade from a BM64 and competes over the 2000 metres for the first time. Last start she placed second, we backed her that day and she ran well without winning. Tom Stockdale gets the 2kg claim which helps, but isn’t a huge factor.

The previous win of (4) Swift Sure was pretty good, saluting by over a length in maiden grade. He looks to be a good horse in the making, and he maintains the services of Yendall. Considering the wide race, might be worth playing as a saver. (1) Narvaez the obvious danger

Tip: (2) Chequerboard $10.00 (ew) Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The race favourite (3) Over Exposure is going to be pretty popular here after a solid first-up run at this track over 1400 metres. That day he placed second behind Vassilator, who has since gone onto a better race (and won). Over Exposure was unlucky not to win and you can’t help but feel this one is his race to lose. This really is a pet distance, doesn’t mind the Good or Soft conditions, and maintains the services of Damian Lane. He looks to be the Best Bet on the program.

The race is pretty thin behind him, but the likely threats are those found in the market, (7) Heavenly Emperor & (1) Kentucky Breeze.

Tip: (3) Over Exposure $2.50 TAB

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This is another tough race with a number of runners having form-lines we can line-up, but we’re none the wiser for. I like the omen horse (6) Viral who didn’t win last start but fought on well, and was arguably a touch unlucky. The price is a little short considering he was beaten in that race by (7) Kazio and he is twice the quote.

Kah takes over from Williams on (5) Rule The World who won last start (just). There’s absolutely no reason why he cannot win again. (4) Mr Money Bags has ability and (8) Skyman can fire first-up. The one at odds is (3) Polanco who placed second in a higher grade last start. It’s a dart job! Play conservatory.

The outside lane and booking of Kah has me leaning to the Waterhouse runner.

Tip: (5) Rule The World $4.45 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The Kensington Stakes—a great looking race, and decent field considering the ‘big players’ are not yet back for autumn. (6) Pandemic is quality! Going for three on the trot, has Damian Oliver in the saddle, and a pretty formidable record—11 starts for 5 wins and 2 places. His last start victory he spanked them, coming from seventh in running to win by almost 2 lengths.

(1) Fabergino is the class runner of the field, and accordingly gets the 60kgs—but that shouldn’t be a problem. Last start she lugged weight and came home over the top of them (also from seventh) in nice time to beat (2) Prezado. You’d be brave to think she can’t win—overall record of 16 starts for 10 wins, and importantly 3 from 3 at track and distance.  The other one looking for three straight is (8) Sword Of Mercy, most recently winning a BM84, and gets no weight here, so watch out.

The race looks to be between Pandemic & Fabergino—cannot split them, so taking both.

Tip: (1) Fabergino $3.80 TAB

Also backing: (6) Pandemic $4.40

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Not an easy one to have confidence in, but (2) Long Arm arguably deserves favouritism after a nice win in a BM84 leading into this. The question is the price—for me in such an open race, with many runners and variables, the odds are too short. Keen to find one at better odds.

We backed (4) Influential Girl last time she went around (which was at this track and distance), on that day $15.00, and she put in a nice run to finish second behind Defibrillate. She posted some great finishing sectionals, and was unlucky not to get the prize. Pretty keen on her each-way chances again!

(12) Miss Damita put a couple lengths on them last start over 1700 metres at The Bool. It was a great effort in a higher class than this. At $11.00, Yendall in the saddle, and carrying no weight—great chance too.

Tip: (4) Influential Girl $9.00 (each-way) Bet365

Also backing: (12) Miss Damita $11.00

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This looks a race of two. (4) Terbium won well before having some excuses at Caulfield last start. Happy to forgive and is right in contention again. Absolute pet distance, and gets the claim of Campbell Rawiller. The only query is the sticky gate where he may be forced in behind them with runners either side. But you need to be pretty unlucky not to find room at Flemington.

Then there is (3) Mystery Shot, going for 5 from 5. There is nothing to suggest the Shooting To Win gelding cannot keep it going. The stable has opted for Will Price to take the ride, a good decision—he is in form and gets the claim.

 The smart bet is to play both! I’ll be backing them at 3-1 stake.

Tip: (3) Mystery Shot $3.85 Sportsbet

Also backing: (4) Terbium $4.40