Racing Tips

Geelong Racing Tips: Friday, January 15th

Geelong hosts an eight-race card before we head to the Moonee Valley twilight race meeting. The Horse has found the best bets on the program to get us off to a flying start this weekend.

by
The Horse
14 January 2021

Geelong hosts an eight-race card before we head to the Moonee Valley twilight race meeting. The Horse has found the best bets on the program to get us off to a flying start this weekend. He has profiled Race 3, Race 4 and Race 7.

Race 1

Bet365 Odds Drift Protect Mdn (1147m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Bet365 Odds Drift Protect Mdn (1147m) 1:30pm (AEDT)
1. Amegdul (1) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings	5.5	4.8	5	5
2. Cadboll (11) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3. Cheerful Legend (3) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: J D Sadler	18	19	19.8	21
4. Elteecee (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	9.5	7.5	11.2	7
5. Lightsaber (5) J: Dean Yendall (58kg) T: P G Moody	5.5	6	5.8	6.5
6. Pegasi (10) J: Dean Holland (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	10	10	9	10
7. Saint Tropez (7) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell	23	26	26	31
8. Son Of Akeed (8) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: P L Caboche	101	151	161	126
9. Turnstar (2) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	15	15	15	13
10. Tranquil Bay (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: A & S Freedman	2.3	2.4	2.25	2.4
11. Wedges Are Back (12) J: Daniel Moor (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
12. Loud Attraction (4) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: K L Corstens	61	81	101	71

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Race 2

All Time Plumbing Mdn Plate (1247m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2 All Time Plumbing Mdn Plate (1247m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. Glorious Express (4) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (59.5kg) T: P G Carey	5.5	5.5	4.65	5
2. Big Flash (7) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Ms C Alderson
3. Jungle Jim (3) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: M D Moroney	3.6	4	4.35	4.2
4. Le Chanteur (1) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: L & T Corstens
5. Yorker (5) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	3	3.2	2.45	3.3
6. We Know So (2) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57.5kg) T: L & T Corstens	4.8	4.8	3.15	4.4
7. Loudspeaker (6) J: Jarrod Fry (56kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	6.5	5.5	5.1	5.5

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Race 3

Bennett Racing Mdn Plate (1347m)
2:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Bennett Racing Mdn Plate (1347m) 2:30pm (AEDT)
1. Brazen Bully (6) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: A & S Freedman	5	4.8	4.7	5
2. Cogent (2) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: G Eurell	23	26	26	26
3. Halic (3) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings	9.5	10	9.2	9.5
4. Khaleej (4) J: Jack Hill (58kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi	9.5	10	10	10
5. Magnus Bellagio (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	2.6	2.5	2.65	2.5
6. Schuhbeck (7) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	9.5	10	9.8	10
7. Alverio (9) J: Fred W Kersley (56kg) T: D T O'brien	27	31	32	26
8. Amateurish (10) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: James Cummings	11	8.5	10.4	11
9. Champagne Witness (8) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: M J Williams
10. Mighty Mary (12) J: Zac Spain (56kg) T: G Eurell	51	81	67	81
11. Silverdeel (5) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56kg) T: Julius Sandhu	26	34	29	31
12. Street Glow (1) J: Daniel Moor (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	14	15	14	15

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

This race looks to be between the (5) Magnus Bellagio for the Ellerton/Zahra stable and (1) Brazen Bully for the Freedman stable. Magnus Bellagio was brave in defeat coming second last start at Mornington. He had a tough run yet still came from seventh to finish a touch over a length from the winner. Laura Lafferty gives way to Jamie Kah, and that simply looks like an insurance policy to ensure he wins. He gets a pretty ordinary draw, so she’ll need some luck and at some point is going to need enough left to get over them.

Brazen Bully has been racing on the Heavy and could improve sharply on Good – which makes me a touch nervous not to be backing him. Don’t be afraid to throw him in as a saver. The last start 2^nd was a good run in defeat. (4) Khaleej was in the same race as Magnus Bellagio but looked to be the inferior horse.

Tip: (5) Magnus Bellagio $2.95 Sportsbetting

Race 4

Dmb Contracting Mdn Plate (2270m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Dmb Contracting Mdn Plate (2270m) 3:00pm (AEDT)
1. Honour Of Clare (1) J: Ms Alana Kelly (59.5kg) T: Daniel Kelly	21	20	23	23
2. Irish Pardon (5) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	5.5	5.5	5.9	5.5
3. Kenya Lion (11) J: Jacques Luxe (59.5kg) T: J G Mcarthur	126	151	161	151
4. Lean Thy Arms (10) J: Dean Holland (59.5kg) T: P A Preusker	6	6.5	6.2	6
5. Pommetier (6) J: Jordan Childs (59.5kg) T: A W Noonan	15	15	14.6	15
6. Praise The Power (4) J: Matthew Allen (59.5kg) T: Susie Wells	20	19	19.6	17
7. Redabout (7) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (59.5kg) T: G R Webb	61	61	63	51
8. Stephen's Green (9) J: Daniel Moor (59.5kg) T: Anthony Cosgriff	151	151	161	126
9. Twilight Zone (13) J: Michael Carson (59.5kg) T: B I Stanaway	251	151	301	151
10. Dot (12) J: Noel Callow (57.5kg) T: A H Parker	27	34	32	34
11. Dreambound (2) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	3.6	3.6	3.55	3.6
12. Peace Process (3) J: Neil Farley (56kg) T: Archie Alexander	3	2.9	2.9	3
13. Breaking Loose (8) J: Jye Mcneil (59.5kg) T: N A Blackiston

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

The maiden over 2270 metres brings together an ordinary field who have had their fair share of ‘near misses’, ‘excuses’ and ‘bad luck’. The reality is, this is simply a weak race. There are a number you can draw a line through quite easily, and the market tells that story in spades. Everything over 20-1 looks extremely unlikely to cause an upset, leaving only a few with a genuine chance. At the top is (12) Peace Process who has favouritism, and deserves it after a few improving runs. The last two runs he placed 2^nd and 3^rd respectively. The 3^rd behind Feuermond was arguably the better run, while the 2^nd behind Chaparral Belle also bodes well for this race.

(4) Lean Thy Arms and (11) Dreambound look to be the threats, while (6) Praise The Power is the one at odds.

Tip: (12) Peace Process $3.85 Bet365

Race 5

Connect Tel (Bm58) (1147m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Connect Tel (Bm58) (1147m) 3:30pm (AEDT)
1. The Fugitive (2) J: Ms Alana Kelly (64kg) T: S Morrish	21	21	25.5	19
2. Star Selection (6) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (63kg) T: Geon Singh	11	12	11	10
3. Awesome Storm (1) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (62.5kg) T: Chris Calthorpe	11	12	10.2	11
4. Snappy Magnus (7) J: Dylan Dunn (62kg) T: Ms D Chapman	5.5	5	5.9	5.5
5. Fi Style (5) J: Dean Holland (61.5kg) T: Ms H White	6	6.5	6.6	6.5
6. Gimme The Goss (9) J: Zac Spain (61.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.8
7. Trygve (3) J: Fred W Kersley (61kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	9.5	9.5	8.8	10
8. Cardice (4) J: Patrick Moloney (60kg) T: C W Little	4.5	4.8	4.55	4.6
9. Bon's Ghost (8) J: Will Gordon (57.5kg) T: Kevin Adcock	67	81	83	71

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Race 6

J. T. Dixon (Bm58) (1547m)
4:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6 J. T. Dixon (Bm58) (1547m) 4:00pm (AEDT)
1. Quail Hollow (10) J: Jamie Mott (63kg) T: M D Moroney	5	5	5	4.6
2. Atone (9) J: Ms Alana Kelly (62.5kg) T: N J Dyer	19	18	21	18
3. Mutanaaseq (6) J: Dylan Dunn (62.5kg) T: Ms J Beriman	41	41	53	34
4. The Mood I'm In (4) J: Jack Hill (62.5kg) T: V L Malady	5.5	5	5.2	5.5
5. Stoney Vista (8) J: Rhys Mcleod (61.5kg) T: C W Mcdonald	15	16	15.6	15
6. American Flyer (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse (61kg) T: L & T Corstens	2.4	2.3	2.35	2.3
7. Ocean Dew (3) J: Jye Mcneil (61kg) T: A & S Freedman
8. Tyrannto (2) J: Patrick Moloney (60.5kg) T: C W Little	35	41	40	41
9. Great Ambition (7) J: Fred W Kersley (59.5kg) T: Yoshitomo Shima	5.5	6	5.3	6
10. Hurricane Jack (5) J: Dean Holland (55kg) T: R J Linnell	35	51	43	41

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Race 7

Jack Rabbit Vineyard (Bm58) (1765m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Jack Rabbit Vineyard (Bm58) (1765m) 4:30pm (AEDT)
1. Shoot For Coomaah (8) J: Ms Alana Kelly (65kg) T: Richard Laming	3.5	3.4	3.35	3.5
2. Victime De L'amour (6) J: Zac Spain (65kg) T: C W Mcdonald
3. Bakery Hill (4) J: Ms Mikaela Lawrence (64kg) T: Amy Mcdonald	26	21	26.5	19
4. Plunger Charlie (11) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (63.5kg) T: Peter Hardacre
5. Real Thinker (7) J: Unknown (63kg) T: E V Musgrove	5.5	6	5.6	6
6. Express Raider (3) J: Dylan Dunn (62.5kg) T: Nicholas Roe
7. Achaeus (1) J: Matthew Allen (62kg) T: Susie Wells	7	6.5	6.8	7
8. Lord Lennox (10) J: Jye Mcneil (62kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	2.8	3	2.7	2.9
9. Acropolis Hill (9) J: Noel Callow (61.5kg) T: Tara Taggart	8.5	8	9.4	7
10. Hurricaine (2) J: Jarrod Fry (59.5kg) T: Amy Mcdonald	201	201	281	151
11. She Zed So (12) J: Samuel Payne (56kg) T: Peter Krikas	35	41	41	41
12. Cheners (13) J: Unknown (57kg) T: E V Musgrove	51	51	55	51
13. Royal Rue (5) J: Unknown (54kg) T: D J Cannon	81	151	111	126

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

A race of two horses here. But will it be the horse that has been racing in the best company (1) Arctic Wolf, but who gets back and carries the big weight—or is the horse that gets an inside draw and likes to lead (4) Yulong Island, but who has been in weaker company and goes up in distance?

Arctic Wolf has been up against the likes of Mystery Shot & Right You Are in Open grade. It’s pretty good company when dropping back to BM58. He is first-up here, at which he goes well, and has the services of Noel Callow. He will drop back from the wide gate and look to swamp them late. If they are going hard-up front, than he comes right into contention. The main threat will be the likely leader, Yulong Island, who comes here after a solid 3^rd place after a previous (and expected) maiden win at short odds. Last start he raced over 1200 metres and he looked to drop-off a little, so it’s an interesting decision to jump him up in distance. And this could be his undoing. Conversely, if he is fit enough and gets an easy time of it, than he may get away with it.

It’s going to be based on how this race is run, so playing both options – with the best horse, Arctic Wolf, on top. And Yulong to get my stake back.

Tip: (1) Arctic Wolf $4.40 Bet365

Also backing: (4) Yulong Island $2.75

Race 8

Elephant & Castle Hotel (Bm58) (1347m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Elephant & Castle Hotel (Bm58) (1347m) 5:00pm (AEDT)
1. Arctic Wolf (11) J: Noel Callow (64kg) T: M D Moroney	1.9	1.9	1.92	1.9
2. Gun Bolt (10) J: Mrs Jackie Horner (62kg) T: Ms J Beriman	61	67	81	61
3. Jessica Rae (8) J: Ms Alana Kelly (62kg) T: G M Begg	10	11	10.6	11
4. Yulong Island (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (62kg) T: M M Laurie
5. Bartender Blues (2) J: Jye Mcneil (61.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	9.5	8.5	9.1	8
6. Industrial (9) J: Jack Hill (61.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	6.5	6	6.1	6.5
7. Kashiwa (5) J: Ms Mikaela Lawrence (61.5kg) T: S A Beani	13	13	13.2	13
8. Deep Mirror (7) J: Ms Kiran Quilty (60.5kg) T: S P Nichols
9. Barangaready (6) J: Zac Spain (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	6	5.5	5.5	5
10. Spears (1) J: Dylan Dunn (59kg) T: David & Coral Feek
11. The Mitre (3) J: Dean Holland (55.5kg) T: W P Cerchi

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.