Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, January 15th

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Yukon made his Victorian debut at Sandown and ran well for a narrow 2^nd. He maps to lead from barrier one and should be hard to run down, but it was very difficult to make ground that day and he had everything in his favour. The claim is a handy one, but I don’t want to pile in at near even money.

 

(7) Safeeya is the interesting one. She bolted in first up at Cranbourne before running into a potential star in Ayrton at Caulfield. She was beaten 6L but I thought she ran quite well from back in the field. The query here is where she gets to on the map- she’s been ridden cold both starts this prep and if she’s last on the fence from barrier 2 she’ll struggle. If they use her up and try to hold the back of Yukon, I think she’ll win with even luck.

 

Can’t see much else winning. I think Yukon will start in the red just off the map, and I’ll have something small on Safeeya (who I think is the better horse) to knock him off late in the piece, hopefully at a longer price.

 

Tip: (7) Safeeya $3.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Safeeya

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Fighter looks well placed to break the maiden here. He’s become a bit costly, running 2^nd at short odds in all three career starts, but his best run was clearly last start when up in trip. He ran a nose 2^nd to Montelpulciano, with 3L back to 3^rd. That horse was coming off a strong bm70 placing at Flemington behind Beltoro. With any luck from barrier 2 I think he’s the winner.

 

(5) Limpet looks the danger but barrier one is the knock. The camp is flying, 1600m should suit and D Lane takes the ride. The run last start was solid, but it was an average race at Werribee, and she had every chance there.

 

(7) Isolating is racing well and gets back onto a good track. The run three back behind Galactus is good enough to win this and the 1600m should be fine.

 

Tip: (1) Fighter $2.50 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Fighter

 

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Aminatu ran a narrow 2^nd to Zesty Belle on resumption, which looks very strong form with that filly winning impressively at Flemington since. Aminatu then sat 3 wide no cover at Cranbourne after being very strongly backed but couldn’t outlast the two leaders. The carpark draw is an issue as she’s only ever drawn inside.

 

(11) Sweet As Scandi finished 8L off Ayrton first up before running a narrow 2^nd to Alternate at Yarra Valley after leading. She maps well here from barrier 4.

 

(10) Longduan was outclassed behind Zoushine at Caulfield last start and looks better placed here. Her form prior was consistent and puts her in the mix.

 

Pretty weak race here. Aminatu clearly looks the horse to beat, and if she can manage to get cover from the draw, or land outside lead, she should be too strong here.

 

Tip: (1) Aminatu $2.80 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

 

These 3000m races are always fun. (5) Power Of Attorney certainly brings the best form down from Sydney, having won a decent bm78 over 2400m last start. He comes back to a firm deck which is perhaps some query, and the draw hasn’t done him any favours. Drawn barrier 14 I’d expect him to get a fair way back.

 

(6) Anikery is a mare in form and is coming off a 3.2L win at Werribee when able to lead and kick away. The 3000m will be no issue whatsoever, and she gets Will Price’s claim. There isn’t much speed here so expect her to roll to the front and give a massive sight again.

 

(4) Steam Roller won one of these races two back, sitting handy and racing away to win by 3L. He was simply outclassed last start in the Bagot behind Tralee Rose and there were plenty that were beaten a long way.

 

(1) Southern Rock hasn’t done much this prep after a promising first Australian prep. His run last start at Caulfield was improved, despite being beaten nearly 6L. He copped pressure for the lead and the step up to 3000m will suit. He’s got no turn of foot but should be able to grind away from a forward position.

 

Happy to be against Power Of Attorney at the short odds given the map. Anikery is going too well to ignore so she goes on top. Southern Rock finally showed something last start and looks very dour this prep, so the 3000m should suit.

 

Tip: (6) Anikery $7.00 Sportsbet

Value: (1) Southern Rock $11.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Anikery, 0.5 units WIN Southern Rock

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(10) The Mobot looks well placed here. She’s a real speedy type best suited to 1000m in my opinion, so the 955m circuit should suit. She knuckled the start first up and settled midfield which wasn’t ideal but still ran well behind Ididitforlove. The run last start over 1100m was very good when in an awkward spot, finishing 1.9L off Hidden Legend whilst the other leader dropped out to finish last. Drawn barrier 4 here with the 3kg claim, with good intent early I think she can lead this field and be very hard to run down.

 

(4) The Last Napoleon should’ve won comfortably at this T/D last start, only seeing clear air over the concluding stages. He finished a length in front of (7) Mount Mitty, who was the aforementioned last placed leader in The Mobot’s race. The gate for The Last Napoleon likely forces Will Price to go right back and try to loop the field.

 

(3) The Commoner narrowly beat Chevalier D’eon two back and then basically finished alongside her in the All Banter race. Chevalier D’eon who I thought could be the value has been scratched, so happy to just play The Mobot.

 

Tip: (10) The Mobot $5.00 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN The Mobot

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(2) Paddy Mac improved sharply last start and should’ve won at Geelong, when the inside run simply shut on him. For a 5yo he’s still very lightly raced, and up to 2040m should suit now, 4^th up on the quick backup.

 

(5) Muleta was good in a stronger race at Flemington last start. The query is where she gets to on the map from barrier 10.

 

(4) Unrealistic started $201 in the same race and was the better run. His form prior wasn’t flash, hence the SP, but his run over 1600m here three back behind a very promising horse in Loveplanet was good, only beaten 3L.

 

(1) Into Rio can improve 3^rd up out to a more suitable trip but certainly needs to.

 

This is an average race with some real average horses that would be better suited in country bm58’s. The only horse with upside and potential city class talent is Paddy Mac. The rise in trip should be fine and with even luck from a wide barrier he should atone for last start’s horrow show.

 

Tip: (2) Paddy Mac $2.80 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Paddy Mac

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Very tough race. (7) Brazen Song is a consistent mare who wasn’t suited on pace last start at Flemington, with 5/6 horses in the top 6 coming from worse than midfield. She draws wide here and steps up slightly in distance.

 

(8) Gutsy is in form having won his last two, the most recent over 1200 at Mornington. This is a big step up but the horse he beat there, Brazen Princess, does have form that ties some of these in. The quick jump up to 1500m is perhaps some concern, although the map is beautiful, and the Thornton/Ellerton & Zahra combo is airborne.

 

(4) Bianconi Magic maps to do no work although will need some luck from barrier 2. His last run behind Zac De Boss reads fairly well for this.

 

Stack of other chances and not a lot would surprise. Trusting the jockey/trainer combo here with Gutsy, but not getting carried away.

 

Tip: (8) Gutsy $10.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Gutsy

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(13) Real Gun put it all together last start at Caulfield when leading and dictating, winning by 2.75L. The run prior at this T/D was good behind a handy horse in Sayumi. Whether he has the speed to lead from barrier 2 I’m not sure, so he might end up leader’s back but there should be ample opportunity to get off the fence.

 

(12) Jay Gatsby brings some solid 3yo form, but I don’t think he’s quick enough to get across from barrier 9 over 1200m, so the map will be interesting.

 

(6) Delusions is the one that brings Saturday form and should be in the finish. She was strong first up when 2L off Ididitforlove and was held up when trying to build momentum last start at Caulfield. The run was still good when coming from back in the field, but she will be giving Real Gun a head start and need a good ride from barrier 4.

 

(2) Sham I Am beat Sayumi last start which ties in. He did start $51 there but some of his older form certainly suggests it wasn’t a fluke.

Tip: (13) Real Gun $2.90 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet