Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, March 5th

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 12:39pm (AEDT)

(1) Mumbai Jewel has the benefit of race experience here and was impressive winning the Pierro up in Sydney. That was a big final 600m and I think they’ve worked out how to ride her. She’s progressive and looks a big chance.

(10) Wee Nessy has a few wraps on her coming off an impressive jumpout win and Jamie Kah is booked for the debut. Really put them away when asked for an effort in that jumpout and she could be anything.

(7) Millane was an expensive purchase and has had the benefit of a few jumpouts. Looked good winning two of those and running 2nd in the other two. Expect the stable have him very forward and ready to fire.

(2) Superset next best.

Tip: (1) Mumbai Jewel - $4.25 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Mumbai Jewel

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 1:14pm (AEDT)

Looking forward to seeing promising stayer (4) Crystal Pegasus step up to this sort of trip for the first time. Was extremely good late on last start to storm home and win when staying at 2000m so everything points to him relishing this trip. He’s unbeaten from two 4th up runs and is at peak fitness now, gets a nice drop in the weights and Jamie Kah jumps on board from a good gate.

(7) Salto Angel can fill a placing here at a big price. Doesn’t win out of turn but is ultra consistent and will be suited onto the big Flemington track.

(5) Tigertiger was a pass mark first up over 2000m with a big weight. That run under the belt should suit and rising in trip is certainly no negative. Knows how to find the line and looks a big threat.

(6) Playoffs is next best and is a winner over 2500m so you can guarantee he will run the trip.

Tip: (4) Crystal Pegasus - $1.90 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Crystal Pegasus

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 1:49pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the chances of (9) Rose Quartz who is absolutely flying this prep. She was unlucky not to win two back but loved having an easy lead last start and bolted in. She takes the logical step up in grade here and she is 2/2 at this track and trip. Maps well and she is going better than most of these. She’s my best on the card.

If there’s a danger it looks to be front-running (7) Bermadez who has proved himself a genuine fresh horse. 3/3 first up off a spell and he does like Flemington. A narrow 2nd to Lighthouse has turned into A grade form. 1200m?

(3) Imperial Lad the best EW chance for mine and first up over 1200m is a pretty good recipe for his success. He’s got genuine speed and he is proven in this grade. I don’t want to lose on him.

(10) Evening Glory is ready to do something 3rd up and form has stacked up around his two runs this prep.

Tip: (9) Rose Quartz - $2.40 at Bet365

Saver: (3) Imperial Lad - $12 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3u WIN Rose Quartz, 0.25u WIN Imperial Lad

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 2:24pm (AEDT)

Tough to split the top two here but I’m going to side with (5) Annavisto who has jumped out really nicely behind Lightsaber in the lead up to this. Flies fresh, looks to get more map favours than key rival and I think she can go to another level this prep.

(3) Sirileo Miss is hard to knock and went through last prep in almost faultless fashion. She’s unbeaten from three first up runs and has also looked good at the jumpouts. Might need a good ride from Linda from the gate.

(4) Zou Dancer probably the main threat to the top two and really liked what she did in a recent trial. She can run time and impressed when winning first up last prep.

Tip: (5) Annavisto - $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Annavisto

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 3:00pm (AEDT)

Think (11) Shadow Devil can run a race here at an EW price. Is unbeaten through two career starts and the last start win was incredible. The stable clearly have an opinion throwing him straight in the deep end and while it’s not easy to jump from 64 grade to this but I think there’s some X factor about him.

Obviously (1) Overpass is the one to beat and there is no knock on him from me. Brings serious form into this and could just win this with a leg in the air. He’s never been one of mine and at the current price I will be leaving him.

(9) Able Willie will be suited getting to 1200m and things just didn’t pan out for him the way the race was run last start. He’s ready to win now.

(4) Sneaky Five has only been beaten once (in a Manikato!) Won twice when fresh and she has flown under the radar in this field for mine.

Tip: (11) Shadow Devil - $7.50 at Bet365

Also Backing: (4) Sneaky Five - $8.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Shadow Devil, 0.5u WIN Sneaky Five

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 3:44pm (AEDT)

No doubt Zaaki will be tough to beat but I think at the price (10) Inspirational Girl can give this a good shake. Down on the 53.5kg, she flies 2nd up winning 3 from 3 while she’s also unbeaten at the mile so the stats are there. She was pretty good fresh considering the slow speed where she flew home running some quick late sectionals. She is ready to win now.

(1) Zaaki is a gun and we saw what he did last prep. Only proven G1 horse in this field and he was a super winner when first up last time in work. Could just be too good for these!

(5) Mr Brightside proved himself to be group-class last prep and it was a very encouraging return from him. He charged late and looks ready for the mile where he is 5 wins from 6 starts.

Tip: (10) Inspirational Girl - $3.95 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Inspirational Girl

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 4:24pm (AEDT)

Having two bets in the feature race of the day.

(2) Captivant is primed to run a peak here 3rd up and has been building very nicely with this race in mind. He was good running home last start with a big weight and up to the mile with Jamie Kah booked is a big tick. Gate 10 keeps him out of trouble and I think the race fitness edge is going to be key to this race.

With that in mind (9) Pinstriped is the other horse I want to have something on. How good is this guy? He’s 3/3 now and has been running serious closing sectionals to win his last couple. Love the upside and X factor about him and guarantee he will be flying late.

No doubt (3) Profondo can win but first up at 1600 I’m happy to let him go around against some of these fitter horses. He’s proven himself as one of the best colts in the country and will be right in this.

(1) Hitotsu was as good a Vic Derby win as you’ll see at the end of last prep and while he might be better over further you cannot count this stable out for getting them ready for this big ones.

(7) Lightsaber the value for me with a complete forgive run last start when missing kick in Orr. First up run was very good and he’s unbeaten 3rd up. If he jumps with them he can be the speed horse that could get away with this.

Tip: (2) Captivant - $7.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (9) Pinstriped - $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Captivant, 1u WIN Pinstriped

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 5:04pm (AEDT)

I’ll put (2) Brooklyn Hustle on top who just never seems to help herself with racing pattern, but the talent is there. Was extremely unlucky not to win Oakleigh Plate first up last prep and was good here over 1400 at the end of that prep. She deserves another win.

(12) It’s Me looks a big price coming down from Sydney. That was her first run in a long time when first up following a few issues. She’s unbeaten at 1000m and that run under the belt might have done a world of good. I like the Sydney Form as a point of difference.

(9) Sword Of Mercy is a much better horse 2nd up and the two horses that beat beat her home last start have franked the form since. She can win!

(4) Malkovich is speedy and there’s no real knock on him besides the price. Can’t get him that short in comparison to a few of these.

Tip: (2) Brooklyn Hustle - $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (12) It's Me - $15/$4.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Brooklyn Hustle, 0.5/1u It's Me

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2022, 5:39pm (AEDT)

(10) Yonce has proven herself to be a very versatile horse with the way she’s put together four straight wins. I don’t see any reason to jump off her here depending how bad this rain hits. If we’re racing on a 6 or better she looks hard to beat. Maps well from 2 and is airborne.

Speaking of airbone, (1) Gentleman Roy knocked off the smart Tuvalu last start, taking his record to 4 wins from his last 5 starts. You know what you get with him and he will lead these up and will take some running down.

(12) Savannah Cloud was the last horse to beat Roy and gets a big weight swing in his favour today. Super consistent and dropping in the weights could be key.

(9) Ripper Rita is fitter now and that first up run was good. She’s suited getting to the mile now and looks a good value chance.

No knock (11) Basarwa who is also flying and the win last start was that of a horse who is working it all out now. Tougher here but stable will have him ready.

Tip: (10) Yonce - $3.05 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Yonce