Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, May 22nd

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 12:05pm (AEDT)

The WA filly (2) Snickerdoodledandy goes on top. She was a pass mark first up in a hot race behind Ayrton and Curran, running on well for 4th, beaten 6.7L. She did still split a couple of handy males and the key here is 1400m 2nd up, both of which she’s unbeaten at. 2nd up last prep she beat a good field in the listed Burgess Queen Stakes, and she gets stable rider Nolen replacing Hefel. Plenty to like.

(3) Pride Of Jenni was good first up, only run down by Agreeable, and was a clear forgive last start when missing the start, ending up back and wide, and pulling up with EIPH. She can bounce back.

(4) Electric Belle is airborne and you wouldn’t have known she was a $41 shot the way she won last start, flying late.

(6) Sweet Sixteen is racing well and gets Kah. The 1400m is a small query but she closed well last start.

Tip: (2) Snickerdoodledandy- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Snickerdoodledandy

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

Seems almost a repeat of the race won by (2) Holbein at Caulfield. He found the right race there and broke through for an easy win despite copping a bit of pressure mid race. Gets in with 54.5kg and will be hard to beat again but Flemington 1600m might be a touch different and he has only won once here.

(7) Surreal Image should lead over Holbein and gets in with 52.5kg. He can mix his form but the win two back in SA was good over Shop Till I Drop, who then ran 2nd in a group 2. He was outclassed in the Hawkesbury Cup, and I can forgive the run at Caulfield prior when the same price as Holbein and pulling up with mucus.

(10) Ocean Miss was unlucky last week but was good the start prior behind Good And Proper. She might be looking for further now but with 51kg she should run well 

(9) Sentimentalist next best, should be hitting the line first up.

Holbein clearly hard to beat but $1.80 is poison. Surreal Image can give some cheek from the front.

Tip: (7) Surreal Image- $14.00/3.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Surreal Image

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

Happy to be with (2) Lina’s Legend who comes out of a strong race on debut, splitting Generation and Spinning. The winner looks very smart there and his sectionals home were the 2nd fastest of the race. 1400m looks to suit off that and Kah takes the ride from barrier 3.

(1) Blushing Tycoon comes out of the highest class of race, getting nabbed on the line by Biscayne Bay in the Sires Produce at Morphettville. He’s got the 1400m run under his belt and will run well again.

(3) Deprivation was too strong on speed on debut at Donald and should improve off that.

(9) Mangani has jumped out well.

 

Tip: (2) Lina’s Legend- $3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lina’s Legend

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

Surely, surely, surely this is the day for (2) Heart Of Puissance. He’s clearly got the most upside and talent in the race. The win three back in Sydney was dominant, he was given a very quiet ride in the Terang Cup at $1.70, and should’ve won the Warrnambool Cup when he just had nowhere to go from barrier 1, playing bumper cars for 200m before flashing home for 2nd. Draws barrier 4 at Flemington and gets J Kah which all points to clear air and a win and given his profile and ‘flashing light’ run last start I’m surprised he’s not shorter.

(5) Moonlight Maid wasn’t far off the favourite in the Warrnambool Cup and meets him 4kg better at the weights, but given how unlucky Heart Of Puissance was it’s hard to see her turning the tables.

(1) Fanciful Toff was a forgive last start dropping back to 2000m when missing the start and pulling up poorly. Back up to 2500m suits but Kah jumps off to ride Heart Of Puissance.

(6) Converging was supposed to be retired after last start but ran so well in the Port Adelaide Cup that she comes here with a decent chance.

Tip: (2) Heart Of Puissance- $2.35 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Heart Of Puissance

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Tough race down the straight. Going for one at monstrous odds in (11) Well Sprung at $81+. He ran well first up at Pakenham with 59kg and has never won first up from 9 starts, but his 2nd up record is his best with 3 wins from 8 starts. He’s a bit hit and miss and getting on in age but does have some straight track form in the past that reads well. Nolen is a big jockey booking and probably the best rider this horse has had in years.

(2) Express Pass races very well first up and is probably the best horse in the race, although the barrier is a bit tricky if they’re coming wide, which they didn’t do here last meeting. He’s jumped out better in the past but the stable are flying.

(12) Kalkarni Royale looks ready to win coming off a 2nd to Ocular where she was well backed. She split Paul’s Regret and Macroura at this T/D in December which is solid form.

(7) Fight is one to include at big odds. He comes out of one of the main form references won by Whipcracker Way, but I liked his last 200m when getting back in a fast run race and he gets in better at the weights here. 1100m will suit and 2nd up last prep he ran a narrow 3rd to Bumper Blast down the straight in a bm90.

Backing Well Sprung and Fight at big odds.

Tip: (11) Well Sprung- $81.00/19.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Fight- $41.00/9.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Well Sprung, 0.25 units E/W Fight

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 2:52pm (AEDT)

(7) All Of Brighton on top. I like him back to 1100m and at Flemington after stretching out to 1200m last start and finding a race with a tearaway leader where he had to chase from the back for a long way. He started $2.90 there, Dee has trialled the horse since and he draws to get to the outside.

(6) Thudson looks the leader and did run 2nd to Valaquenta last start which ties in All Of Brighton, who beat that horse home easily when they met, although Valaquenta was unlucky. He got a bit lost late last start which worries me stepping up to 1100m and down the straight.

(3) River Twain bolted in last start at Morphettville and was around the mark in similar races here prior. Gets J Kah on and is hard to knock but this is very open.

(8) Dickin Medal has plenty of upside and won well twicein good time last prep, including in a very similar race at Caulfield before bumping into Portland Sky and Tagaloa where he raced keenly and was only beaten 2.45L. That’s clearly the best form in the race given Portland Sky dead heated an Oakleigh Plate. Barrier one is tricky but he could end up being the best horse out of this race.

 

Tip: (7) All Of Brighton- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Dickin Medal- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN All Of Brighton, 0.5 units WIN Dickin Medal

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 3:32pm (AEDT)

Had him as a horse to follow and this looks an ideal race for (7) Redwood Shadow. He’s been close up in all races this prep and I don’t think he quite had the platform for such a brutally run race last start at Caulfield when only 3rd up. He was also tight for room on the inside which I don’t think is his go, and getting to Flemington, 4th up, with the fast run 2000m under his belt all look very attractive. One of the better bets of the day.

(4) Horrifying was unusually given none by J Kah in the same race when $3.60 favourite, ending up wide without cover from barrier 5. The run prior was basically the same as Redwood Shadow’s but I think Redwood Shadow has a bit more improvement to come.

(5) Reuber beat them both home last start and was a touch unlucky. He’s very consistent but did have the better platform for that race given he was back in trip from 2400m and 2200m. Will run well again no doubt.

(3) Our Lone Star beat Redwood Shadow and Horrifying here last start but does rise sharply in the weights. Makes his own luck which can’t be said for the other two which will see him win races even if the other two are better horses.

Keen on Redwood Shadow- he’s had the perfect platform to explode here at Flemington. Looks a place moral at $2.20 and I’m keen to have a good bet on the win and the place.

 

Tip: (7) Redwood Shadow- $5.50/2.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Redwood Shadow, 2.5 units PLC Redwood Shadow

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 4:12pm (AEDT)

Feature of the day down the straight in a tricky and open race. The form of (6) Pandemic obviously reads very well and I like him down the straight. His racing pattern attracts bad luck, but he was very good behind Goodwood winner Savatoxl last start when that horse got an easy lead. His one run down the straight was excellent over 1000m when starting $3 and hitting the line very well behind Fabergino. 1200m suits him better and Olly takes the ride.

(10) Riding The Wave was desperately unlucky in the Wangoom, never getting clear air. Has won down the straight and has upside to come, but away from The Bool where it would’ve been set to win is some query.

(14) Ocular has a big turn of foot and showed it at The Bool as favourite, getting a gap and sprinting well. Up to 1200m suits and he pulled up lame down the straight 2nd up last prep when favourite.

B finally struck some form last start, hitting the line well over 1000m behind Sartorial Splendor. Pandemic had his measure when they met down the straight but he is proven at 1200m.

B flies 2nd up and covered ground in the Wangoom. My query is a good track with him but he races well down the straight. Not out of it but he’d want rain.

 

Tip: (6) Pandemic- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Pandemic

Odds Last Updated: May 22, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

Very tough finish. (5) Spring Choice was very good winning at Sandown last start coming from last. He goes up in the weights and draws the carpark which is a query, but he’s in form.

(4) Somerset Maugham was just fair in the same race but can improve 3rd up. Once he got fit last prep he strung together some wins, including one at this T/D.

(9) Maseratie Bay looks to have returned very well, hitting the line to just miss at Caulfield first up. Up in trip will definitely suit and he’s a stayer on the rise.

(12) Zachaz was very good first up behind Blue Ocean and Excelman which reads well. He’s won 2 from 3 when 2nd up and gets J Kah.

If Somerset Maugham got out to 20’s on the fair I’d be entertained because I can see him improving lengths here, but he’s probably around his right price at $13.

Tip: (4) Somerset Maugham- $13.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet