Geelong Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 20th

(7) Nobel Heights looks ready to win 3rd up coming out of a very fast run race last start at Mornington. He chased well there for 2nd, the 2400m looks ideal now given this horse did place in an SA Derby last year and if it weren’t for the import I think he’d have everything in this field covered.

(10) Point Nepean does look the only danger having his first run in Australia. His maiden/debut win was over 2615m where he ground away well before starting $7 and failing in listed company at his next start. The market is almost the only guide we’ve got with these Williams’ imports. If he’s backed, he’ll be hard to beat.

Tip: (7) Nobel Heights $3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Nobel Heights

(12) Vitruvius goes on top. He looks ready for 1700m 3rd up after a very good effort last start in the worse ground nearer the inside. That was another fast run race in the middle sections and he kept coming late to be beaten less than a length by two much wider than him. The draw isn’t ideal but Prebble sticks with him and he’s got upside.

(1) Coolth is the most talented horse but I can’t back him. He was going well earlier this prep and looked perfectly primed last start at Flemington but didn’t give a yelp over 2500m. He’s been freshened and back in trip, has a stack of gear changes and draws an awkward barrier 1.

(4) Highland Jakk is flying having recorded two good wins in a row. He has to be respected now that he’s found some form.

Tip: (12) Vitruvius $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Vitruvius

Having something on (1) Kazio who is an absolute number but looks well placed here. Both runs this prep have been good and the race he comes out of last start has proved to be a strong form reference where he finished off in the 3rd best last 400/200m of the race. He’s never missed the top 3 when 3rd up despite not winning, 1400m is his trip and although he’ll get back, I do think he’s better than bm64 grade.

(13) Derive is the other at odds I’m backing. I thought she was good from a long way back first up at Mornington and she’s much better 2nd up, having won and run 2nd at two starts. Another that draws awkwardly but we did see her 2nd up last prep go forward from a wide gate and control the race so tactics will be interesting.

(12) Part Time Lover is going well and the 2nd to Saltpeter last start reads well but she does struggle to win.

Tip: (1) Kazio $19.00/5.50 at TopSport

Also Backing: (13) Derive $13.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Kazio, 0.5 units WIN Derive

Can’t understand the price discrepancies here. (8) Unanimous finished 0.2L off the favourite when they met at Wangaratta and should’ve beaten it home with even luck coming from a long way back. He was then beaten 2.2L on a heavy track which I doubt suited, now meets the favourite 2kg better at the weights and is $9.50 here, which looks overs.

(2) Coolshot is the favourite and a winning chance, but both career wins have been on heavy tracks and he absolutely fell in over 1100m last start at Murtoa. He’ll probably lead which gives him the advantage, but he’s short enough on a dry track at the trip.

(11) Impressive Lass has some strong formlines in NSW. Not sure about her at 1100m but the Stokes camp seem to have turned the corner recently, especially with their fresh horses.

Tip: (8) Unanimous $9.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Unanimous

(6) Crestani gets his chance here. He raced wide without cover in that strong form race behind Dirty Thoughts last start and did well to be beaten just 1.2L. The win prior over Narvaez was solid, he races well fresh, should get a decent run midfield and looks hard to beat.

(8) Platini is the value. He won two in a row to start last prep and took on some stronger races including a 3rd to Fighting Harada and Imperial Lad. Potentially wants a wet track but he gets a nice run with 54kg from barrier 5 and at $21 I’ll be on.

Tip: (6) Crestani $3.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Platini $21.00/4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Crestani, 0.25 units E/W Platini

Geelong Classic for the 3yo’s- not sure the Derby winner is here but an interesting race nonetheless. I like one at big odds here in (10) Shabalala who looks a real stayer and suited to 2200m. He was beaten a long way by Micro on debut at 1400m but I thought his run in Adelaide over 1550m wasn’t bad, working home to be beaten 2.5L by Max Fire, who has since run 3rd in the Hill Smith stakes over 1800m and is $7.50 here. It’s not a good platform but the O’Brien stable can do this and at $31 I’m having something on.

(4) Character is the horse to beat in my opinion. He comes out of the best lead up which was the Super Impose at Flemington and despite having every chance there he battled on well to be beaten 2.8L by El Patroness, with Gunstock in 3rd. He’s got a good platform having gone 1600-1600-1800 and now up to 2200m and by Teofilo I’d expect the trip to suit.

(5) King Of Pharaohs destroyed a very weak field two back at Coleraine but ran well in a fast 2000m race against the older horses last start. Character did beat him home when they met at The Valley but he looks ideally suited up in trip and has only had 4 starts.

(1) Tutukaka will keep grinding away up on speed and did start $6 in the Super Impose but was well beaten by Character.

Tip: (10) Shabalala $41.00/$10 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Character $6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.5 units E/W Shabalala, 0.75 units WIN Character

Good edition of the Geelong Cup. (14) Hasta La War is a very good stayer and I think he can win this. He was very good in the Herbert Power behind Delphi who started $5.50 in the Caulfield Cup, only beaten 2L. The win prior in Adelaide, whilst only a bm76, was dominant with 60.5kg and he had no platform to do that. Go back to 2019 this horse was $2.50 in Adelaide Cup all in markets before being injured, but he looks back to his best. He gets a great map, there’s full intent here because he’ll need to win to make the Melbourne Cup field and he’s a chance of upsetting the favourite.

(8) Tralee Rose is easily the horse to beat. She’s been excellent in three runs this prep and is easy to tie in with Hasta La War through Delphi, having also run 3rd to him in the Naturalism when not in the best ground. Her 2nd in the Bart Cummings in a fast race was excellent and she maps very well again. Interesting they’ve decided to run- she’s all but guaranteed a Melbourne Cup run off the latest news and she can attract a weight penalty for this, so I do wonder whether there’s 100% intent.

(4) Knights Order sat outside the strong tempo in the Bart Cummings and was beaten 9 lengths, but the stable did win this race with Runaway a couple of years ago who went straight to the front and kept kicking. He looks the leader again and can give some cheek.

(5) Amade was another well beaten in the Bart Cummings but if he could reproduce his Flemington win over Persan he’d be a strong contender.

Tip: (14) Hasta La War $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Hasta La War

(3) How Womantic does look the obvious. She’s come back well, hitting the line hard over an unsuitable 1000m behind Esta La Roca first up. Out to 1200m suits and if she reproduces her Hareeba 2nd to Laverrod last prep she’ll be hard to beat.

(5) Cordilla has the class but generally improves with a run under her belt, and potentially at 1400m.

She ties in (10) Rainbiel who was solid behind Lombardo last start at The Valley, beaten 4.2L. She draws wide but is very adaptable.

(8) Best Stone is an interesting one. She drops back from 1400m behind Still A Star where she started $101 but ran very well on speed for 4th. I do note the market absolutely smashed Pride Of Jenni in the Tristarc who was nearly an identical run to Best Stone. Don’t mind her at 1200m.

Tip: (8) Best Stone $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Best Stone

Very tough finish. (8) Legend Of Zorro is ticking over okay for this 3rd up run. He comes out of a very strong race behind Sirileo Miss and Frankie Pinot. He gets a nice map from barrier 5.

(7) Rainbow Thief should’ve finished a touch closer to He’s The Real Deel last start at The Valley. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal and he’d maybe want it wetter but he’s going well.

(3) Fifth Position has talent better than this level but hasn’t really shown it in Australia. He’s a horse with issues that needs a wet track to let down.

Tip: (8) Legend Of Zorro $9.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet