Northam Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 20th

Not much juice in the market here.

(1) Almaher Man showed promise in his first preparation, running two 2nds behind He’s Gold and Far Too Strong. Gets in well with 54kg here after the claim and trialled well enough to suggest he should be very competitive today.

(4) Advanced was $2.40 into $1.70 on debut here a little more than two weeks ago. Sat outside the leader on that occasion and could only manage 4th. A few gear tinkers today with the lugging bit and winkers applied for the first time. Drawn the inside so should get a cozy run and will no doubt be thereabouts.

(5) Ciscojoe trialled nicely and hit the line hard on debut, while (9) Flower In The Wind was good in two starts last prep and trialled well leading into her first up run.

Staying out here.

Tip: (1) Almaher Man $7.00 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

(2) Demerits Pride trialled exceptionally quickly but really got tired late (was entitled to). Pike goes on for the debut here and you’d expect him to go straight to the top. Think he’s hard to beat but I’d be very worried about him being a little squib off that trial.

(8) Hart Trader comes out of the same trial as Demerits Pride and was given a very quiet time of things. Opened $26 which was wrong and is now into $9.00.

(5) Magnificent Andy trialled very well in his only showing this time in. He sat outside the leader and cruised to the line under a stranglehold. Draws well, I suspect they’ll let the speed go and enjoy the sit behind them. Rates very well.

(6) Glacier Miss came from last to win last start, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting. Ends up back there again from the wide gate but gets C Parnham on today. Goes close.

(11) Eevalina is the blowout. She actually ran well first up when she was ridden poorly. Drawn much better here, positive jockey change with McGruddy replacing Lucy Warwick and could even lead from the draw.

Tip: (5) Magnificent Andy $2.40 Ladbrokes

Value: (11) Eevalina $31 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Magnificent Andy, 0.25 units WIN Eevalina

(5) Dais was $10 into $4.60 and was the best thing beat you’ll see last start. She was held up terribly until the final 150m or so and flashed home to be beaten 0.03L. Really should have bolted in with any clear running. Drawn 3 today and probably ends up in a similar spot as she did last start, but with any luck she probably wins.

This isn’t a bad race though and there are other chances.

(7) He’sgotwings has only trialled once but he jumped straight to the front and scored well. Goes forward from barrier 9 to either lead or sit outside the leader and should be there for a fair way.

(6) Catalpa improved at big odds last start and gets blinkers applied for the first time here. Looks a good form reference behind Above The Peg and Electric Rose, the query has to be the awkward gate again.

(9) Rommel’s War comes out of the same race as Catalpa and didn’t get the clearest run late. Draws the inside with 51kg and is a chance at double figure odds.

Tip: (5) Dais $1.95 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

(6) Real Danger went down two starts ago when she was planted three-wide the trip, but bounced back in style last start when able to lead all the way. She dropped them early in the straight and went on to score by 3L. Not sure she’ll lead here with Strike in the race, but can probably land outside the leader and will prove too strong.

(1) Strike is well suited dropping back from a Class 3 to a Class 1, and also dropping from 59kg to 57.5kg. Was only beaten 0.3L over this track and distance first up so with those things in his favour, he should be going close again today. Just don’t think he’s the strongest horse and I think if Pike lands outside him, he’ll fold.

Tip: (6) Real Danger $1.70 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Have kept my powder dry until now but very keen to bet here. This is one of the lowest races and some of the horses are just no good at all.

(5) Rogues Point comes up favourite here and he’s an absolute cat, with just one win from 27 starts. Had all favours and couldn’t win two starts ago, now comes up with an awkward draw so happy to be against.

(1) Sunday Gin did a good job to win despite being lame last start. That was over 2200m and now drops back to 1600m seven weeks between runs.

(10) Bring Euro is a 37-start Class 1.

So that brings me to (7) Lady Of Babylon who is the least exposed horse in the race, having had just three career starts. Came from last and ran home strongly into 5th first up, recording by far the best closing splits of the race. Now gets a low draw and steps up to the mile, so should be well suited despite being a maiden racing in a Class 1. Think she is the horse to beat and happy to have a good bet at the prices.

Tip: (7) Lady Of Babylon $4.20 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Lady Of Babylon

If you backed (6) Beanie last start you would have had a bad time watching the race unfold. He was terribly held up until the 100m mark when it was all too late. Not sure how he likes the wet ground but with any luck he surely goes close today.

(4) Alimentaria gets Chris Parnham booked to ride today. Should roll forward to lead or sit outside the leader from the wide gate and is ready to win now four runs in.

(5) He’s All mighty ran home strongly at Kalgoorlie last start and didn’t get much luck the start prior.

(9) High Mist is the blowout. Would have been well suited to the 1800m this race was originally meant to be run over, but the wet track really brings him into consideration. I’m convinced the horse is going well, he’s just been ridden poorly in his past two starts.

Tip: (6) Beanie $3.30 Sportsbet

Value: (9) High Mist $34 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Beanie, 0.25 units WIN High Mist

Competitive little race this.

I think (8) Main Engine is a bit better than a $10 chance here. He was a sneaky run first up when badly held up for the majority of the straight behind Spritely Star and Buzzoom. That form has been very strong and he should have finished much closer than he did. Going to get back again but should be finishing off.

(4) Expressionist is the most likely winner of the two favourites in my opinion. First three starts last prep were very good before failing to go on with it. Trialled up twice ahead of his return. Will need to be a good effort to win fresh off a year off the track but can win.

(10) Champagne Dame will lead and take catching, (3) Worth A Risk not hopeless at all.

Tip: (8) Main Engine $9.10/$2.45 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Main Engine

We see (10) Mrs America back at the races today after producing an absolute demolition job here on debut. She was $3.60 into $2.40 and came from near last to fly home over the top of her rivals, scoring by 2.1L. She couldn’t have been more impressive. Providing she handles the wet today, she should be winning again.

(4) God Has Chosen makes his stable debut for Lindsey Smith. He won his first two races in Albany before running 2nd to Fangio last time we saw him. Expect him to improve in this stable and that makes for an interesting contest.

(1) Ghost Who Walks has been very well supported in betting and is going well.

Tip: (10) Mrs America $2.10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mrs America