Gold Coast Racing Tips: Saturday, January 16th

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Near on impossible race to kick off the Magic Millions card, 16 maiden runners who have all been set for this race. (16) Newsreader comes here first up off some good trials. I think she brings the best form from Sydney- she was held up and only finished 1.3L off Forbidden Love in a stakes race at Randwick. She gets in with 54kg and maps nicely off the speed with Avdulla on.

 

(5) Adelaide’s Light is an interesting runner. I thought his run at Warwick Farm was very good. He had to do a bit of work to sit just outside/behind the leader and battled on well, only beaten 0.8L by the swoopers whilst the leader was another 3.2L away. The winner, Fifteen Aria, was heavily backed and a touch unlucky in a solid bm72 next start. The 2^nd horse Flexible bolted in with her maiden next start, and the 3^rd horse Vanderland was heavily backed and was a big run when wide no cover for 2^nd. Adelaide’s Light gets Jmac on, comes back to 1200m which looks suitable, and is double figures with some bookmakers.

 

(9) Hey Big Splenda was strong late on debut at Ipswich and Fradd chooses to stick with him. He looks a good chance for the locals at big odds.

 

(8) For Valour will go forward for Nash/Waterhouse&Bott from barrier 1 and is an obvious chance coming off a solid Canterbury placing.

 

Adelaide’s Light looks the value to my eye and will be the way I’m playing a tough opening race.

 

Tip: (5) Adelaide’s Light $10 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Adelaide’s Light

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Looks a real race in two here between last week’s The Wave quinella. (3) Paradee got a dream run on the back of the leader and peeled out at the perfect time to put the race to bed. The set up here is different, drawn out wide in barrier 11. I’d expect Willo to go forward and if he finds a spot, she should be hard to beat again.

 

(5) Frosty Rocks led and was run down by Paradee last week. I’ve still got a slight query on him at 1800m, but he draws perfectly in barrier 3, Nash sticks, and he gets a fairly significant 4kg weight swing on Paradee.

 

(11) Wapiti ran 3^rd to the pair of them last week and gets down to 54kg. I think he’s got a few lengths to find to beat them but can run a place again.

 

(2) Skate To Paris comes out of some different form and wasn’t beaten far by The Harrovian and Niccanova last start.

 

Pretty confident Paradee and Frosty Rocks run the quinella again. I definitely think Paradee is the better horse, and the way the market is trending, especially on betfair, it looks like we’ll get $3+ about her. I think the backup suits her well, and she’s very adaptable in her racing pattern. Frosty Rocks will look the winner until the 100m mark where it puts in the short steps and Paradee should be able to get over the top again.

 

Tip: (3) Paradee $2.90 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Paradee

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Ballistic Boy started $5 and wasn’t disgraced behind Paradee and Frosty Rocks last start. His last 200m was good and whilst he steps straight up to 2400m, this does look to have been the target. He has to carry the 59kg but he’s the best horse in the race. His win over 2200m in the group 3 Rough Habit was excellent coming from a long way back, and a repeat of that performance makes him very hard to beat here.

 

(3) Primitivo looks the danger. He wasn’t far off Spirit Ridge at Randwick last start and the 2400m will suit. The issue is where he gets to from barrier 2 as he usually gets back.

 

(5) Elaborate will appreciate getting up to 2400m after plugging away over 2206m at Eagle Farm last start.

 

(6) Skiddaw looks the weak point in the market. He’s coming out of a very fast race at Flemington and I know he’s with Danny O’Brien, but the step up from 1600m to 2400m off a 4 week break just seems a bridge too far. I’m not sure he’ll even get the trip- his only good run over 2000m+ was a win in an abysmal race as a 3yo over Coin Collector.

 

Tip: (1) Ballistic Boy $3.70 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Ballistic Boy

 

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Great race! There’s plenty of speed here which should allow (13) King Of Hastings to slot in midfield. He was solid first up when a drifter in betting, beaten 2.9L by Pandemic. That resulted in him being sent out at $13 in a bm88 at Randwick last Saturday, where the effort to win was huge. He sat 3 wide no cover on speed, working the entire but kept kicking to beat a fairly handy field. He gets a big jockey upgrade with Bossy taking over from Chris Williams, and the quick backup should hold him in good stead for what I predict to be a fast run race.

 

(7) Jonker is hard to knock. His win first up for the Gollan camp was outstanding from the front, winning by 4.5L and looking like a completely different horse. He started even money last start and was only run down late. He’ll go forward from the wide gate and it’ll be interesting to see how much pressure he cops.

 

(5) Sansom is one of the horses who will apply the pressure and could even try to hold the lead from barrier 5 with Nash on. He had to carry 61.5kg in the Pandemic race and was only run down late. He tries his heart out every start- a quality which is often underestimated.

 

(4) Bella Vella is the group one winner of the field, at 1200m. She’s a gun fresh, but I definitely prefer her over 1000m. Her Sangster win was in a slowly run race where she got an easy lead on a fairly rail biased day. A fast run 1200m could see her out, but she’s probably the best horse in the field.

 

(6) Hightail could be the knockout chance. He was okay first up at Canterbury in a fast race, gassing out a bit late. He’s generally very good 2^nd up, and did win the guineas at this T/D when 2^nd up last prep. With Bowman taking over from Reith and drawn beautifully in barrier 6, the $34 looks a big price.

 

Could’ve still missed the winner in a very open and fantastic race. King Of Hastings on top, Hightail the value.

 

Tip: (13) King Of Hastings $9.00 Bet365

Value: (6) Hightail $34.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN King Of Hastings, 0.25 units WIN Hightail

 

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

I’ve got this as a race in two between a couple of mares in very good form. (2) Athiri has won her last two, the most recent coming at Eagle Farm when she powered away over the last 200m. Nash sticks and from barrier 5 she should get a lovely run just off the speed.

 

(9) Snapdancer is the clear threat. She bolted in first up at Ballarat and repeated the dose at Randwick, actually running an identical time (1:07.64) as Athiri on the same day. Athiri did have 3.5kg less that day, running a faster last 600m after going slower early. Snapdancer gets in with 1.5kg less here, which is effectively a 5kg swing from their Randwick runs on the same day. The recent trial for Snapdancer was good, trucking through the line under a hold after settling near last.

 

(5) Wild Vixen was good late behind Athiri last start but has to find a length or two.

 

There’s very little between the two of them, but at the prices I have to narrowly side with Snapdancer.

 

Tip: (9) Snapdancer $3.75 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Snapdancer

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The feature of the day is the Magic Millions 2yo classic. We’ve got a field of 16 and the map is interesting with the pre post favourite (11) She’s All Class drawing the carpark. She absolutely bolted in with the Wyong Magic Millions, powering away to win by 4.8L. Jmac sticks, but she’ll need a good ride from the barrier.

 

(12) Swift Witness was left standing by She’s All Class at Wyong but improved sharply at start number 2 with the blinkers on here at the Gold Coast, winning very impressively. Despite being well beaten by She’s All Class on debut, natural improvement cannot be underestimated with young horses.

 

(17) Ranch Hand has gained a start and looks a major player. He was dominant on debut over 1000m at Warwick Farm, before starting $1.40 at Eagle Farm last start. He got shuffled back on the turn but presented as the winner when clear, just run down late by one out wide. He should get a good run just off the speed from barrier 3.

 

(1) Alpine Edge has done nothing wrong in two starts at Eagle Farm, winning both and looking professional and adaptable in the pair of wins.

 

(14) Miss Hipstar didn’t have the best of runs behind Swift Witness last start- she got into an awkward spot and then had to sharply ease off heels at the top of the straight, losing all momentum. She was never troubling the winner but ran on well and I think the wide draw could suit her as she looks a rangy sort of filly that can sustain a sprint. She gets the blinkers and visors replacing the winkers and looks set to run a big race.

 

Very tough race and not a whole lot would shock. Going to have something small on Miss Hipstar each way who started $4.20 against Swift Witness last start but comes up $18-19 here after having a less than ideal run.

 

Tip: (14) Miss Hipstar $19.20 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Miss Hipstar

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Time for the 3yo’s to take to the track for the guineas, and again it really does look a race in two. (13) Isotope is the favourite coming off two spectacular wins at Doomben, the first by 3L over Gotta Kiss at $1.55, and last start at $1.50. She gets in with 54.5kg, maps well midfield and will be hard to hold out late.

 

(3) Away Game looked a winner for all money last start against Isotope but couldn’t quite repel that filly’s last 200m which was electric. Away Game was only first up there whereas Isotope was 3^rd up, so you’d expect Away Game has far more improvement to come. It’s hard to discount a filly who is 4 from 9, ran 2^nd in a Golden Slipper to Farnan, and won a group 2 over some very good fillies including three time group 2 winner Dame Giselle. Bossy has come out and said Isotope won’t beat Away Game again given she was only first up. Whilst that’s typical Bossy hyperbole, I think there’s a case to be made, especially at the prices and with their racing patterns, that Away Game is the bet here.

 

(12) Forbidden Love is the obvious 3^rd pick coming off a strong Gosford guineas win when a well backed $2 favourite. She’s group 1 placed over 1600m so the step up in trip suits. She’s perhaps more effective on wet ground but definitely not hopeless on a good track and should have every chance on speed.

 

Tip: (3) Away Game $4.20 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Away Game

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Great race. I’ve been with (3) Eleven Eleven all prep and see no reason to jump off. He was good first up sitting outside the lead behind Pandemic and elevated nicely 2^nd up to win the Wyong Magic Millions 3&4yo, racing wide without cover for the trip but still going straight past (12) Yao Dash who had every chance. Eleven Eleven repeated the dose at Canterbury when coming from a long way back to get up on the line in an impressive performance. I think he’s looking for the 1400m now, and I think Nash will really suit the horse as he does take a bit of strong riding to wind up. Drawn barrier 5 he can position midfield and be very strong late.

 

(9) Discharged ran 2^nd in the Canterbury race and was very good all things considered. He was first up there and did more than his fair share of early work. He’s definitely better over 1400m and does get 2kg off Eleven Eleven for a 0.2L defeat. He’ll go forward and be hard to run down.

 

(1) Soxagon is the best local hope, coming off two straight wins. He was dominant at Eagle Farm over 1400m last start and with clear air from barrier 3 will be in the finish.

 

Backing Eleven Eleven confidently and making Discharged a small result at the prices.

 

Tip: (3) Eleven Eleven $5.60 Sportsbetting

Danger: (9) Discharged $7.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Eleven Eleven, 0.5 units WIN Discharged

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Very tough end to the card. (6) Boomtown Lass ran 2^nd to Athiri last start which looks good form. She’s very consistent having placed in over 70% of races. She should go forward and with cover will be in the finish.

 

(9) Beaufort Park looks suited here 2^nd up, where he’s got a good record. The first up run with 58kg was good and he should be fitter stepping up to 1300m. He’s trained here and has won two from four at the track. He’d won 4 on the bounce before the recent let up including a 3.8L and 2.5L win here. He maps to do no work just off the speed and drops down to 54kg.

 

(10) Yamazaki has a booming finish on her day but looks short enough here given that racing pattern. Barrier one is definitely against her and she’d need a Bossy special to get clear.

 

(2) The Odyssey ran a narrow 2^nd to a fresh Roheryn last start which is good enough for this. He has to carry the 59kg but does like it here and I don’t think 1300m will be a major issue.

 

(4) Macewen beat Beaufort Park last start so has obvious claims. He maps rearward and meets that horse 2kg worse off.

 

Tip: (9) Beaufort Park $7.50 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Beaufort Park