Connect with us

Racing Tips

Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 27th

Hong Kong racing continues at Happy Valley tonight and Tim Geers has picked out four races to bet into at the city course.

Happy Valley Racing Tips

Hong Kong racing continues at the city course tonight, with nine races scheduled at Happy Valley!

Tim Geers has picked out four races he’s keen to bet into: Race 4, Race 5, Race 7 and Race 9.

Find his analysis and tips below!

Best Bet: Race 4 – (4) Ever Force

0

Race 1

Murray Hcp (C5) (1200m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Murray Hcp (C5) (1200m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

1. Noble Man (7) J: A Hamelin (60.5kg) T: J J Size
151315
2. Fantastic Fabio (11) J: Z Purton (60kg) T: C H Yip
9109.1
3. Great Son (5) J: Jerry Chau (59.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan
5.54.84.95
4. Tiger Glare (12) J: Alex Lai (59.5kg) T: L Ho
126151121
5. Vital Spring (3) J: C Y Ho (59kg) T: K W Lui
5.555.5
6. Well Dragon (2) J: T Piccone (58kg) T: W Y So
161415.4
7. Alloy Star (1) J: M Chadwick (57kg) T: T P Yung
111612.2
8. Great Harvest (9) J: A Badel (56kg) T: K L Man
666.1
9. Who's Horse (8) J: K Teetan (56kg) T: A S Cruz
232623.5
10. Tinker Belle (10) J: C Schofield (53.5kg) T: D Ferraris
151151141
11. Tigerlad (4) J: J Moreira (52kg) T: A T Millard
4.44.84.55
12. Show Mission (6) J: M F Poon (51.5kg) T: C W Chang
4641

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

0

Race 2

Queensway Hcp (C5) (1650m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Queensway Hcp (C5) (1650m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

1. Humble Steed (4) J: H T Mo (58.5kg) T: T P Yung
675161
2. California Legend (3) J: C Soumillon (57.5kg) T: A S Cruz
3.943.9
3. Great Smart (5) J: M Chadwick (57.5kg) T: K L Man
171516.6
4. Tailor Made (2) J: M F Poon (57.5kg) T: C W Chang
109.510.2
5. Virtus Star (8) J: A Badel (57.5kg) T: F C Lor
151214.2
6. Even Keel (6) J: C Schofield (56.5kg) T: A T Millard
111311.8
7. Lucky Victor (12) J: M L Yeung (56kg) T: K H Ting
201201201
8. Nitro Express (7) J: J Moreira (55.5kg) T: D Ferraris
8.599
9. Vega Rhythm (11) J: N Callan (55.5kg) T: L Ho
126101121
10. Happy Hour (1) J: Z Purton (54.5kg) T: C H Yip
2.452.62.5
11. General Castledale (9) J: K Teetan (53.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan
344134
12. Strapping Bauhinia (10) J: C Y Ho (53.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
918191

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

0

Race 3

Ice House Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Ice House Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

1. Sprint Forward (10) J: Jerry Chau (60.5kg) T: D A Hayes
2. Jazz Steed (3) J: A K Chan (60kg) T: C Fownes
3. California Levee (11) J: M Chadwick (58.5kg) T: A S Cruz
4. Hero Time (1) J: N Callan (57.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
5. Very Sweet Orange (8) J: T Piccone (57kg) T: Y S Tsui
6. Moonluck (12) J: C Y Ho (56.5kg) T: K W Lui
7. My Ecstatic (6) J: J Moreira (56.5kg) T: F C Lor
8. The Anomaly (2) J: M L Yeung (56.5kg) T: K H Ting
9. Won Ball (7) J: M F Poon (56.5kg) T: D J Hall
10. Good Luck Money (9) J: K C Leung (54.5kg) T: C H Yip
11. Courageous Dragon (4) J: K Teetan (52.5kg) T: W Y So
12. Lucky Ruby (5) J: A Badel (51.5kg) T: K L Man

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

0

Race 4

Ice House Hcp (C4) (1200m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Ice House Hcp (C4) (1200m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

1. Champ Patrol (6) J: A K Chan (60.5kg) T: C Fownes
8.588.1
2. Top Score (10) J: A Badel (60kg) T: C W Chang
151414.4
3. Phenomenal Combo (5) J: H N Wong (57.5kg) T: C H Yip
353434
4. Ever Force (1) J: Z Purton (57kg) T: C S Shum
1.82.11.98
5. Helaku Knight (8) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: D A Hayes
191717.2
6. Noble Boyz (4) J: K Teetan (57kg) T: D Whyte
131212.2
7. Sacred Giant (11) J: T Piccone (57kg) T: K W Lui
1018183
8. Win Tech (2) J: K C Leung (57kg) T: P D O'sullivan
614151
9. Peak To Peak (9) J: J Moreira (56kg) T: F C Lor
86.57.2
10. Romantic Trove (12) J: C Y Ho (56kg) T: W Y So
412639
11. Cigar Buddies (3) J: M F Poon (55kg) T: P Yiu
182118.6
12. Happy Tango (7) J: H T Mo (52.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
171616.4

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Importantly, the rail is in the C+3 position tonight, which often plays heavily in favour of those drawn on the rail, particularly barrier 1. That’s where the favourite (4) Ever Force starts from and he gets the services of Zac Purton for the first time tonight. He was brave last start when having to do a bit of work to get outside the leader, fighting on to be beaten less than a length in 4th. He should get a lovely suck run from the inside pole tonight and with the rail out, he should be very hard to beat.

Tip: (4) Ever Force $2.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Ever Force

0

Race 5

Glenealy Hcp (C4) (1000m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Glenealy Hcp (C4) (1000m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

1. Nextmodel (11) J: C Soumillon (60.5kg) T: T P Yung
65.55.6
2. Moment Of Power (9) J: Z Purton (60kg) T: P D O'sullivan
413141
3. Whiskey Neat (1) J: J Moreira (58.5kg) T: C Fownes
2.52.82.6
4. Harmony Fire (8) J: Jerry Chau (57kg) T: D Whyte
131513.4
5. My My My (3) J: K Teetan (57kg) T: F C Lor
6.566.5
6. Off The Reel (7) J: K C Leung (57kg) T: P Yiu
233126
7. Viva Chef (5) J: M F Poon (56kg) T: L Ho
91010
8. Forza Angel (2) J: H N Wong (55.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
9.57.58.7
9. Gouten Of Garo (12) J: A Hamelin (55.5kg) T: D Ferraris
352634
10. Sea Monarch (4) J: M L Yeung (55.5kg) T: W Y So
11. Carry The Diamond (6) J: M Chadwick (54kg) T: Richard Gibson
151816
12. Dr Proactive (10) J: C Y Ho (52.5kg) T: K H Ting
465145

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Once again, barrier 1 over the 1000m with the rail out should provide (3) Whiskey Neat every opportunity to go one better tonight. I think he is quite clearly the horse to beat, but he’s short enough now at $2.40 so I’ll be backing him as a saver in the hope that a couple at longer odds can run him down.

(1) Nextmodel is the winner of just one race but it did come over this track and distance and in this grade, where he trounced his rivals by 2.8L. He started from barrier 12 that night, and then got beat less than a length following that when starting from barrier 11. That was the last time he ran in this class – his four subsequent runs have all been in higher class. He drops back to Class 4 tonight and although the draw is a negative, he does get Christophe Soumillon on board. He looks a good price at $8.50.

(2) Moment Of Power has been running dreadfully but he also gets a drop in class tonight and gets Zac Purton booked to ride. This is his first time racing in Class 4 since June 2016! He might well just be completely cooked, but at $21 I have to have something small on.

Tip: (1) Nextmodel $8.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Moment Of Power $21 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Nextmodel, 0.5 units WIN Whiskey Neat, 0.25 units WIN Moment Of Power

0

Race 6

Lambeth Hcp (C4) (1650m)
12:15am (AEDT)

Race 6

Lambeth Hcp (C4) (1650m)
12:15am (AEDT)

1. Divine Unicorn (10) J: Jerry Chau (60.5kg) T: W Y So
171617
2. Charizard (4) J: C Soumillon (59.5kg) T: D Ferraris
4.53.94.35
3. Play Wise (2) J: M F Poon (59kg) T: C H Yip
7.587.5
4. V Chevaliers (6) J: A Badel (59kg) T: K L Man
5.55.55.3
5. Monster Kaka (12) J: C Y Ho (58kg) T: D J Hall
262023
6. Star Of Red (1) J: H N Wong (57.5kg) T: K H Ting
313134
7. Daily Beauty (9) J: J Moreira (56.5kg) T: C Fownes
787
8. Dream Warriors (8) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: A S Cruz
5.55.55.5
9. Shanghai Grace (11) J: Z Purton (55kg) T: Y S Tsui
7.55.57.3
10. Good Days (3) J: A Hamelin (54kg) T: C S Shum
161518.2
11. Mister Monte (5) J: M Chadwick (53kg) T: C W Chang
181421
12. Har Har Heart (7) J: M L Yeung (52kg) T: T P Yung
514151

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

0

Race 7

Connaught Hcp (C3) (1000m)
12:45am (AEDT)

Race 7

Connaught Hcp (C3) (1000m)
12:45am (AEDT)

1. Kai Xin Dragon (2) J: K Teetan (60.5kg) T: D A Hayes
776.9
2. Saul's Special (10) J: T Piccone (60.5kg) T: C W Chang
343131
3. Flying Genius (7) J: Z Purton (60kg) T: A S Cruz
54.85.5
4. We The South (3) J: C Soumillon (60kg) T: F C Lor
44.44.35
5. Harmony And Rich (5) J: C Wong (59kg) T: Y S Tsui
7.56.56.6
6. Kurpany (11) J: A Badel (58.5kg) T: C Fownes
5.555.4
7. Young Passion (12) J: B Shinn (58kg) T: D J Hall
126151121
8. Fabulous Eight (6) J: J Moreira (56kg) T: P Yiu
5.55.55.5
9. Man Star (4) J: C Schofield (56kg) T: K H Ting
232123.5
10. Nordic Wellstar (8) J: Jerry Chau (56kg) T: D Whyte
464141
11. Orion Patch (1) J: M F Poon (56kg) T: K W Lui
515143
12. Wild West Wing (9) J: A Hamelin (53.5kg) T: J J Size
181515.2

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Open contest here over the 1000m and there’s two horses I’m keen to back, one at $7.00 and one at $5.50.

We’re getting a luxury price for (3) Flying Genius here after his failure last start, but you can put a line through that. He completely bombed the start by about 3L and over 1000m, it’s mission impossible when that happens. Prior to that he won here over track and distance by 1.8L, and the horse he beat then came out and bolted in at its next start. Providing he jumps cleanly tonight, he should give us a good run for our money at $7.00.

(6) Kurpany was the horse Flying Genius beat two starts ago, and he followed that with a dominant victory of his own, scoring by 3.5L last time out. He goes up 5.5kg in the weights tonight and draws terribly in barrier 11, but that might not be enough to prevent him from winning again. This is only his fourth run of the prep and he’s got better with each run, so I’m keen to follow up on him again tonight.

Tip: (3) Flying Genius $7.00 Bet365

Also backing: (6) Kurpany $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.75 units WIN Flying Genius, 0.75 units WIN Kurpany

0

Race 8

Chater Hcp (C2) (1650m)
1:15am (AEDT)

Race 8

Chater Hcp (C2) (1650m)
1:15am (AEDT)

1. General's Delight (9) J: C Soumillon (59kg) T: D Whyte
1099.1
2. Star Shine (6) J: A Hamelin (59kg) T: K W Lui
131513.4
3. Solar Wai Wai (1) J: K Teetan (57.5kg) T: F C Lor
655.5
4. Sunshine Warrior (8) J: Z Purton (56kg) T: A S Cruz
444.1
5. Magnificent (10) J: C Y Ho (56kg) T: K H Ting
111010.2
6. Reel Bizzy (5) J: M F Poon (56kg) T: C S Shum
232123.5
7. Bear Again (3) J: A Badel (55.5kg) T: D Ferraris
262626
8. Alpha Hedge (4) J: Jerry Chau (55kg) T: K W Lui
8.57.58.6
9. Delightful Laos (2) J: K C Leung (54.5kg) T: A S Cruz
4.54.84.5
10. Invincible Missile (11) J: M L Yeung (54kg) T: W Y So
516151
11. The Rock (7) J: J Moreira (53.5kg) T: C Fownes
6.566.6

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

0

Race 9

Des Voeux Hcp (C3) (1650m)
1:50am (AEDT)

Race 9

Des Voeux Hcp (C3) (1650m)
1:50am (AEDT)

1. Cinquante Cinq (4) J: Jerry Chau (60.5kg) T: T P Yung
4.84.64.6
2. Noble Steed (7) J: N Callan (60kg) T: K W Lui
101010
3. World Famous (1) J: K C Leung (59kg) T: P Yiu
877.5
4. Royal Bomb (2) J: C Soumillon (58kg) T: C Fownes
44.64.55
5. Helene Wisdom Star (10) J: Z Purton (56kg) T: A S Cruz
88.58.5
6. Beauty Spark (3) J: M F Poon (55.5kg) T: F C Lor
191817.8
7. Surrealism (5) J: A Hamelin (55.5kg) T: D Ferraris
171917.2
8. Savaquin (11) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: J J Size
5.55.55.5
9. Kasi Farasi (8) J: C Wong (54kg) T: C H Yip
262025.5
10. King's Capital (9) J: C Schofield (54kg) T: D A Hayes
232622.5
11. Cable Speed (12) J: H T Mo (52.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
201201201
12. Farshad (6) J: C Y Ho (52.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
97.58.5

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Pretty tough race to close out the card but $8.00 about (3) World Famous is appealing. He was beaten 24L when tailed off last at his latest run, but he pulled up with substantial blood in the trachea. Prior to that he ran 3rd over this track and distance. He gets the all-important inside barrier tonight, and if you look at all his runs here at Happy Valley, he is rarely far away. If you ignore his first run at this track, his past four runs here have resulted in a win (1.3L), a 4th (0.8L), a 5th (1L) and a 3rd (1.75L). His best form would see him be competitive in this and with each way odds available, I’m keen to have a little nibble.

Tip: (3) World Famous $8.00/$2.80 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W World Famous

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

Advertisement Moneyball
Advertisement WinnersBet
Advertisement BetDeluxe

More in Racing Tips