Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 27th

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Importantly, the rail is in the C+3 position tonight, which often plays heavily in favour of those drawn on the rail, particularly barrier 1. That’s where the favourite (4) Ever Force starts from and he gets the services of Zac Purton for the first time tonight. He was brave last start when having to do a bit of work to get outside the leader, fighting on to be beaten less than a length in 4th. He should get a lovely suck run from the inside pole tonight and with the rail out, he should be very hard to beat.

Tip: (4) Ever Force $2.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Ever Force

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Once again, barrier 1 over the 1000m with the rail out should provide (3) Whiskey Neat every opportunity to go one better tonight. I think he is quite clearly the horse to beat, but he’s short enough now at $2.40 so I’ll be backing him as a saver in the hope that a couple at longer odds can run him down.

(1) Nextmodel is the winner of just one race but it did come over this track and distance and in this grade, where he trounced his rivals by 2.8L. He started from barrier 12 that night, and then got beat less than a length following that when starting from barrier 11. That was the last time he ran in this class – his four subsequent runs have all been in higher class. He drops back to Class 4 tonight and although the draw is a negative, he does get Christophe Soumillon on board. He looks a good price at $8.50.

(2) Moment Of Power has been running dreadfully but he also gets a drop in class tonight and gets Zac Purton booked to ride. This is his first time racing in Class 4 since June 2016! He might well just be completely cooked, but at $21 I have to have something small on.

Tip: (1) Nextmodel $8.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Moment Of Power $21 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Nextmodel, 0.5 units WIN Whiskey Neat, 0.25 units WIN Moment Of Power

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Open contest here over the 1000m and there’s two horses I’m keen to back, one at $7.00 and one at $5.50.

We’re getting a luxury price for (3) Flying Genius here after his failure last start, but you can put a line through that. He completely bombed the start by about 3L and over 1000m, it’s mission impossible when that happens. Prior to that he won here over track and distance by 1.8L, and the horse he beat then came out and bolted in at its next start. Providing he jumps cleanly tonight, he should give us a good run for our money at $7.00.

(6) Kurpany was the horse Flying Genius beat two starts ago, and he followed that with a dominant victory of his own, scoring by 3.5L last time out. He goes up 5.5kg in the weights tonight and draws terribly in barrier 11, but that might not be enough to prevent him from winning again. This is only his fourth run of the prep and he’s got better with each run, so I’m keen to follow up on him again tonight.

Tip: (3) Flying Genius $7.00 Bet365

Also backing: (6) Kurpany $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.75 units WIN Flying Genius, 0.75 units WIN Kurpany

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Pretty tough race to close out the card but $8.00 about (3) World Famous is appealing. He was beaten 24L when tailed off last at his latest run, but he pulled up with substantial blood in the trachea. Prior to that he ran 3rd over this track and distance. He gets the all-important inside barrier tonight, and if you look at all his runs here at Happy Valley, he is rarely far away. If you ignore his first run at this track, his past four runs here have resulted in a win (1.3L), a 4th (0.8L), a 5th (1L) and a 3rd (1.75L). His best form would see him be competitive in this and with each way odds available, I’m keen to have a little nibble.

Tip: (3) World Famous $8.00/$2.80 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W World Famous