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Horses to follow: Saturday, October 9th

Tim Geers and Trent Crebbin provide their horses to follow and horses to sack from Caulfield and Randwick.
anamoe-caulfieldguineas

We saw four Group 1s across two States on Saturday, with the highlight being Anamoe stamping his claim for the Cox Plate with a comfortable victory in the Caulfield Guineas. I’m Thunderstruck atoned for a luckless run in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes with victory in the Toorak Handicap, courtesy of a peach from Jye McNiel, while Zaaki went down at $1.24 in the Might And Power Stakes, adding plenty of interest to the Cox Plate in two weeks.

At Randwick, $1.9million colt Profondo delivered on his hype – and his price tag – with a powerful display in the Spring Champion Stakes, notching up a Group 1 at just his third start. He won’t press on to the Cox Plate, with connections instead opting to put him straight in the paddock.

Tim Geers and Trent Crebbin review the action with horses to follow and horses to sack from Caulfield and Randwick below.

TAB Sky Racing

Caulfield

HORSES TO FOLLOW

Spinning (R4) – She was one of a few very unlucky runners in this race and had no room until very late in the race. She started a big price here and was a very hidden run so we should get a decent price next start.

Brooklyn Hustle (R7) – She should’ve won here. The ride wasn’t great and was only beaten 1.8L going to the line under a hold. The thing to note is she’s been off the map in both runs this prep. I know her racing pattern attracts bad luck, but she just needs clear air in a race.

Forgot You (R8) – He’s the #1 seed for the Derby and is absolutely crying out for 2000m now. His last 200m was 2nd only to Artorius and basically identical to Anamoe’s. He keeps hitting flat spots in his races at these shorter trips and given Profondo isn’t coming for the Derby he deserves to be favourite.

Embolism (R9) – I like how the market has been with him both runs this prep since being gelded. He raced wide in a fast race first up and stuck on well, and to be only beaten 2.5L in a very fast run Group 1 handicap just 2nd up is a good effort. Given I’m Thunderstruck, Tofane and potentially Superstorm won’t be in the Cantala, I’m keen to spec him in futures markets at $34.

HORSES TO SACK

Buffalo River (R2) – Makes me very sad to put him in the forget file, so I’m doing it with an asterisk- he needs a wet track to perform at his best. He’s a very difficult horse to ride and is a group 1 horse when everything goes his way, but he’s becoming very costly and although not running badly here he had his chance.

Newhart (R2) – Thought he would improve in a faster run race but he was disappointing again after racing keenly which isn’t what you want to see. Given Buffalo River was made to work and lead him, yet beat him home 6L doesn’t bode well. Might be back to Tassie and the drawing board.

September Run (R5) – Might have already put her in here but she’s completely unbackable away from Flemington, and even then I’m not sure she’s going well enough to win a race down the straight. She had every chance here and whilst not beaten far, for a horse of her quality, she should’ve been running over the top of them.

Randwick

HORSES TO FOLLOW

Amarelinha/Grace And Harmony (R6) – Thought the run of Amarelinha was full of merit after sitting wide throughout and still battled on well to be beaten 2L. She started $4.80 so respect her going forward, she can bounce back. Grace And Harmony was another good run and looks right on track for a 2000m race next start. Plenty of good runs out of this race.

Count De Rupee (R7) – His run to finish within 0.6L of the winner was super. He got completely skittled on the turn as a result of the horse that broke down, which spat him sideways. Picked himself up and finished well, he’s going super.

Tricky Gal (R9) – Ran extremely well first up as expected as our best value bet of the day. Just found one too good in the form of Minhaaj but Tricky Gal was the run of the race. Her first up record is better than her second up record, but she’s going to be hard to beat wherever she goes next start.

Leo (R10) – Surprise packet this horse, graduating from a Highway Handicap to a BM78. He’s no superstar but he put away a decent field with ease, showing a dynamite turn of foot. In similar company next start he can certainly win again.

HORSES TO SACK

Sword Of State (R5) – Pretty ordinary effort all things considered from the Kiwi, who may have had excuses first up but not on the weekend. Not sure what race it wins over here but won’t be winning anything if he keeps facing similar horses to what he did on the weekend.

Amish Boy (R7) – Time for me to jump off this boy, who I’ve given plenty of chances to. He doesn’t run many bad races, but he doesn’t win either. Now the winner of just one from 19 starts. Started $6 on the weekend in a race that looked very suitable and failed to make much of an impression. The horse that broke down caused chaos but he actually avoided most of the carnage, so there were no excuses for him.

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