Kilmore Racing Tips: Sunday, November 22nd

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: February 5, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

The day starts off with some pretty average maidens, and this is one of them. Most of these runners have had their chance to show something, with only a couple coming in with reasonable form. It’s that time of year where we see some Spring horses continue on, and some Summer horses start their campaigns.

One that has been up and running for a while is the Maher/Eustace filly (12) Kiani. She has raced with some larger than normal gaps between subsequent races, resulting in four runs over five months. She comes into this maiden after a poor performance at Kyneton where she had breathing issues.

Prior to that run, she looked like she would be breaking her maiden after three places (two second and a third). With excuses last time out she can get back on track today against this sub-par field. The query is whether there are any lingering issues.

The danger is (8) Jamella who offers a double-figure price. 

Tip: (12) Kiani $4.20 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: February 2, 2021, 7:36pm (AEDT)

At the risk of being predictable, the top selection here is another Maher/Eustace trained runner, this time a gelding out of Fiorente, (2) Lorente. He has had start for a very close second, and could have easily been out of this grade already. The increase in distance is a positive, and John Allen gets the ride. The middle gate should work out favourable, so there aren’t any knocks here. The price is a touch skinny, but that’s to be expected. Keen to have something decent on this one, and should anchor a few of the multiples. 

Tip: (2) Lorente $2.15 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

There are two runners that slightly stand-out here, in what is a pretty even race, and they are both from the Price/Kent stable. (6) Exalted Crown comes here after winning a maiden over the same distance, where he had building towards a win quite nicely. He is hitting his straps now and has every chance to go on with it. He is obviously stepping up in class a touch, so this will be the toughest field he has faced.

The stable mate (4) Bet Red has been racing in bm64 grade searching for another win—placing 3^rd, 2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd, and 2^nd. He keeps finding one better, but should be able to take this next step. The fact the stable has Damian Oliver on board is enough to have me leaning towards him here.

(8) Lobster Noodles was disappointing last start, and should be improved, however she may have already peaked following six starts over the past few months—happy to risk. However, her name does make me hungry.

Tip: (4) Bet Red $2.70 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

There is one here at odds that looks like a nice each-way play, (4) Gingerson. Scratched from Terang earlier this week, he has been held-over for this race. And it looks a touch easier. He drops in grade from an Open over 1300 metres where he come 4^th top Titan Blinders—the horse who went around in the last at Ballarat and burned them off to win at $9.00. He was 3.7 lengths off him that day, which would have put him in the places yesterday. This field is much weaker than that, so he gets every chance here. Daniel Stackhouse is riding in reasonable form (albeit a little inconsistent), and despite the wider gate he has the speed to get to the font pairing.

The obvious risk is (2) Shifty Shamus, who comes here after a win in bm58 grade. He lumped the 60.5kgs that day; and was running in up to bm70 grade last preparation; however that win wasn’t super convincing. At the early price (of around $5.50) he looked a good play, but at the shrinking $3.20, he has lost some appeal (but clearly there has been some support). At the price differential, a double play could be the way to go here (Shifty as a saver).

Tip: (4) Gingerson $8.00 Palmerbet

Also backing: (2) Shifty Shamus $3.20 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

 

A great field clash here in the Kilmore Cup! Last start (3) Power Scheme somehow came second in a Group 3 at Sandown—beaten by So Si Bon over the 1800 metres. He looked the winner in that race, which would have been three consecutive wins after he won a bm80 then a bm90. The impact of dropping back to 1600 metres is open for debate, but if he maintains the standard of racing he has already shown, he is going to be very hard to beat. He does have a solid record at this distance, with nine starts for four wins and three places. He has a change in jockey, with the in-form Jye McNeil being replaced by Jamie Mott. Looking at the speed-map, he will get back towards mid-field and most likely land somewhere along the fence due to the inside draw—which could prove sticky to get out.

(12) Rainbow Thief, (14) Sikorsky and (15) Beehunter all ran against Power Scheme this preparation, none of them getting by him in their meetings. Beehunter would arguably be the most competitive of that bunch when looking at those form lines. (1) Haripour also recently competed in a Group 3 but finished last well-behind the winner Junipal. He gets the appropriate blow-out odds here.

The one that can take it to Power Scheme is (10) Tavidance, who has an enviable record of nine starts for four wins. First-up he went around behind subsequent winner Outrageous, but his 12^th was not without merit. He was jammed up behind the leaders and never got-off-heels. He looked like he had plenty to give, and realistically, he was a winning chance. That’s been factored into this market already unfortunately, and he comes in as favourite. His final run last preparation was in a bm84, and he absolutely brained them by 6 lengths (and was letting up). A repeat of that run would see him win here. He has the master jockey, Damien Oliver, on board, so let’s hope he gets a better chance today. Similar to Power Scheme, he may find himself a little further back in the field, but he should at least have an outside lane presented.

If Jamie Mott rides aggressive early in this race, than he can put Power Scheme into a better position compared to where Tavidance will be. If that occurs, Power Scheme is going to be tough to get past. And realistically he meets an easier field today than what he had met last start. The threat is Tavidance, who can take it out if Power Scheme gets caught up. Both fantastic horses worth backing—but Power Scheme deserves another win.

Tip: (4) Power Scheme $4.50 Sportsbet

Quinella: Power Scheme & Tavidance

 

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

There is an early caveat on this race, which is we need to factor in how the track is playing. Track bias is a very real thing, and if the leaders are getting away with easy sectionals, than there is one runner that looks likely here.

The Waterhouse/Bott gelding (5) Abiding can jump from mid-field and cross over to get a comfortable lead. Ethan Brown will ensure, in this smaller field, that luck is not an issue. If the track is not playing to advantage the leaders, than Abiding is vulnerable.

And the likes of (6) Hughes The Boss can push past after getting a nice run in transit. On absolute equal terms, Abiding goes on top.

Tip: (5) Abiding $2.80 TAB

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)