Sha Tin Racing Tips: Sunday, November 22nd

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Open race over 2000m to kick off the card and it’s not a great one to bet in.

I thought (8) Family Leader could go well at each way odds. He’s only won twice from 27 starts so he doesn’t win out of turn, but he’s been right around the mark all prep. He won first up, and has been beaten 2.5L, 2L and 2.5L in three subsequent starts. He now gets up to 2000m and the key here is the inside draw, which should give him every chance.

(12) Sky Gem is another who doesn’t win out of turn. I was very keen on him last week but he missed the jump, travelled poorly and Moreira never really got very desperate on him. He’s up in class today but he drops to 51.5kg, so he won’t know himself given he’s carried 60.5kg in his past four starts.

Tip: (8) Family Leader E/W $7.00 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Pretty keen to be on (8) Harmony N Blessed here. He was due to run last week but he was scratched at the gates, and providing he’s taken no harm from that, this looks a good race for him. He’s trialled well leading into his debut, he should get a good run from barrier and this looks a winnable race for him.

I think the danger is (1) Classic Posh who drops back into Class 4 and with Jerry Chau’s claim, gets in well with 57.5kg. He was beaten a neck in this class three starts ago, and prior to that ran 2nd to Sky Field, which is a great form reference. He draws well and should go very close.

Pretty happy to be against (2) Everyone’s Delight at $3.80, who is shorter in the market than Classic Posh. He won on debut and then ran 2nd last start, but he was beaten more than 5L. The horse he beat on debut was (7) Hard Promise, who then ran 7th last start, so I have a big query on that form of Everyone’s Delight, who also has barrier 12 to contend with.

Moreira goes on (5) Charity Grace at double figure odds, so I’d watch the market there.

Tip: (8) Harmony N Blessed $2.65 Pointsbet

Saver: (1) Classic Posh $4.40 Pointsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The first of the G2s is the Jockey Club Mile.

We see the most exciting horse in HK in the form of (2) Golden Sixty, who made it 12 wins from 13 starts in the G2 Sha Tin Trophy last start. The margin only says he won by half-a-length, but he had plenty up the sleeve. Drawn barrier 1 today and priced like a good thing at $1.22. No need to get involved at that price but sit back and enjoy the watch.

The horse that adds a bit of interest to the race is (7) Mighty Giant who himself has an outstanding record, with six wins and two 2nds from nine starts. He took a couple of decent scalps last start in the form of Sky Field and Lucky Express. He can lead or take a sit so tactics will be interesting here. Excited to see how he measures up to Golden Sixty.

(3) Ka Ying Star was the horse that tested Golden Sixty last start. He fought on tenaciously after Golden Sixty went past him, and he came back to be beaten half-a-length. However I think Golden Sixty had a bit in the locker still. Ka Ying Star can run well again though.

(1) Southern Legend next best.

Tip: (2) Golden Sixty $1.22 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(13) Wonder Express can improve here at each way odds with barrier 1 in his favour. He went very close over this same track and distance last time he drew barrier 1, so I’m hoping the good draw can once again give him a chance to break through for his second career win. He just got way too far back last start, coming from last at the 400m to be beaten 1.8L. His final 400m and 800m were bettered only by the winner.

(1) Hall Of Champ has a fair bit of ability and he looks very well-placed today dropping down to 57.5kg with the claim of Jerry Chau. He ran well for 2nd first up over the track and distance when carrying 60.5kg, so with that weight relief and a good draw, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be going very close here.

Three that you can include at big odds are (4) Galactic, (5) Big Luck Champ and (10) Super Ten, all at $20+.

Tip: (13) Wonder Express $7.50 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

If (1) Hot King Prawn turns up, he should be winning this under the set weights conditions. He was a touch plain first up but he carried 60.5kg that day and he drops to 56kg today, getting a 7kg weight swing on the likes of Computer Patch. He’s won four of his five starts when second up from a spell, he’s had another two trials since that first up run and on his best form, he’s clearly the one to beat here.

(7) Computer Patch is flying and the big plus for him today is drawing barrier 1, which is always advantageous over 1200m on this course. The negative is he’s not as well in at the weights today as what he’s been in his previous two starts when carrying 53kg. He has to race at set weights today and the classier horses might just have his measure under the race conditions.

(2) Big Tim Baby goes well at the track and distance and did run 2nd in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint back in April, where he finished ahead of Hot King Prawn, but he comes into this having had surgery after that last start.

(8) Fat Turtle can be included fresh, while I think the blowout is (10) Stronger who recorded a good win first up over the 1000m. Jumps from a Class 2 to a G2 and meets them at level weights but he’s returned in good order.

Tip: (1) Hot King Prawn $2.70 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(4) Lakeshore Eagle was a touch disappointing first up but he gets the blinkers on for the first time today and that could bring about the required improvement. He’s drawn in barrier 1 for a good run and I’d be disappointed if he couldn’t give this a real shake. Karis Teetan jumps off the stablemate to keep the ride on him so he looks like their top elect.

That stablemate is (7) Packing Waltham, who made a sound Hong Kong debut over 1800m at Happy Valley. With Teetan jumping off, Vincent Ho picks up the ride. Barrier 11 is a touch tricky but it was an encouraging debut and getting to Sha Tin for the first time is likely to suit him.

(8) Tianchi Monster looks a good price at $8.50. He’s going to really appreciate getting back to Sha Tin after finishing midfield at Happy Valley last start. He finished one placing behind Packing Waltham but his form prior to that over this track and distance was good and he’s certainly not hopeless.

(5) Righteous Doctrine is the other one that I have interest in. He dropped back to 1650m on the dirt last start but getting back to 1800m on turf should be a much better fit for him. His efforts over this track and distance prior to last start were good and his overall record at the track and distance is also good. Drawn well in barrier 4 and he should go very close.

The Fownes/Moreira runner (11) Winning Delight is the one that scares me. He returns first up after bleeding from both nostrils last time we saw him. Always have to respect this combination in any race as they’re absolutely flying.

Good race! Will watch the market closer to the race but likely to back Lakeshore Eagle, Righteous Doctrine and then monitor what prices Packing Waltham and Tianchi Monster get to.

Tip: (4) Lakeshore Eagle $4.45 Sportsbetting

Also backing: (5) Righteous Doctrine $6.50 Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The final G2 on the card is the Jockey Club Cup over 2000m, and I expect (1) Exultant to bounce back today. He was defeated first up in the G3 Ladies’ Purse (1800m) but he was giving a huge amount of weight away to every other horse that day, and he gets in much better under today’s conditions. He lost that same race first up last prep before coming out and winning this race second up. His record at this track and distance is outstanding and he should be winning today.

(3) Furore was the horse that beat Exultant last start, running straight past him in the straight. The lead was there as Joao Moreira jumped on him, and he stays on him today. He’s got a great third up record and he draws well in barrier 3 but the challenge for him today is meeting Exultant 3kg worse at the weights and stepping up to a distance that suits Exultant better.

(8) Columbus County is a huge price at $21. He might be outclassed in this company but his first up win was very good and he’s got plenty of talent.

Tip: (1) Exultant $2.00 Bet365

Value: (8) Columbus County $21 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is wide-open. (2) Roman Turbo was very good on his Hong Kong debut, finishing 3rd beaten less than a length despite sitting wide. He draws barrier 1 which is the best barrier over this track and distance, so I expect him to be going very close.

(4) Tornado Twist has a great record at this track and distance, with three wins from four starts. He ran at Happy Valley last time out but back to his pet track and distance and back into Class 3, he should run well at around $17.

(9) Mighty Valour bolted in first up but he did that first up last preparation too, and then lost second up. At the current prices and with the depth there is in this race, I’ll be playing around him.

(6) Winning For All and (11) Biz Power are both just about ready to win.

Tip: (2) Roman Turbo $6.00 Bet365

Value: (4) Tornado Twist $17 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a lottery. (3) Lucky Patch remains undefeated after winning his Hong Kong debut on the all-weather track. He’s drawn a touch awkward in barrier 9 today and he carries more weight, but if he improves on that first up run, he might just win again.

Purton goes on (2) Circuit Six who also ran well on his Hong Kong debut, finishing 4th to Winning Dreamer, who I expect to win the last. That’s a solid form reference and Zac takes over from Derek Leung so at $8.00 he’s certainly not the worst chance.

(5) Heza Beauty is flying and (6) Taking Aim is nearing a win.

Tip: (3) Lucky Patch $6.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Circuit Six $8.00 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 23, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(10) Winning Dreamer faces his stiffest test to date but he’s passed every test with flying colours so far. He’s undefeated from four starts and although his last win was only by half-a-length, he did it with top weight. He rises in class now and drops down to 55.5kg, and barrier is the real positive for him here. I expect him to win again.

(3) Duke Wai ran well first up and is undefeated second up from a spell, so expect him to improve quite sharply. He’s got a terrific record at the track and distance and draws well so he’s more than capable of being right in the finish at each way odds.

(2) Victoriam is big odds at around $17. He failed in Group 3 company last start but back into a Class 2 with Purton back aboard, he can outrun his quote.

Tip: (10) Winning Dreamer $2.20 Bet365

Value: (2) Victoriam $17 Bet365