Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, December 4th

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(1) Martini Special is also accepted at Pakenham. I’d be keen to back her in either race but must admit this does look a bit easier. Her run last start behind the very classy Passionate Lass was very good, leading and showing great fight late to run 2^nd. She draws barrier one here, which should see her go straight to the front, and if Madison Lloyd rates her well out in front, she’s going to be very hard to run down.

 

(6) Thunder Peak looks the danger. It’ll all depend on how the track is playing, but if they can run on (which we won’t know at this stage) she’ll be in the finish, coming off a good win as a $2 favourite. She did run 2^nd to La Mexicana on debut earlier in the year which is strong form.

 

If Martini Special is here, I’m keen to back her. If not, (8) Zou Dancer could be the sole leader and be hard to catch. She started hard in the market on debut in a decent race and returned with a dominant win at Dunkeld.

 

Tip: (1) Martini Special $3.9 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Martini Special

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Tough one. Again, pattern dependent, but (5) Real Gun looks overs at $13. He will get back from barrier 9 which is the obvious knock, but his two career runs have been very good, running 3^rd at both. He raced wide on speed behind Lindhout and Better Kick on debut, before starting $3.80 second favourite behind Nantucket and running on very strongly from last after jumping awkwardly. He steps up to 1200m here which looks to suit, and with the right run can definitely feature in the finish.

 

(11) Sayumi was close up in a few runs in solid company last prep and draws well in barrier 4. He’s got some strong SP’s and good form so has to be respected.

 

(1) Aristo Missile has started favourite in both career starts, finishing 2^nd in both. He’s jumped out well and the big positive is that he should race on speed.

 

Tip: (5) Real Gun $13.2 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Real Gun

 

Odds Last Updated: January 21, 2021, 10:21pm (AEDT)

If (1) Hasseltoff had drawn away from the inside I’d be keen, but barrier one makes things a bit tricky. It was a great run last start when caught wide early, only run down late by Chief Altony with a big gap back to 3^rd. With some luck I’d expect him to be winning here.

 

(4) Night Passage is the interesting one. Some of her younger form was strong, and she resumed with a good 3^rd here at 1200m behind Corner Pocket. I’ve no doubt she’s better suited at the mile, but whether she’s fit enough to do so 2^nd up coming off a 1200m run.

 

They clearly look the two. I’ve got Hasseltoff on top, but with map queries I’d want $3 to back him, which I’m not sure we’ll get. At this stage it’s a no bet, but monitor the market.

 

Tip: (1) Hasseltoff $2.45 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(1) Influential Girl looks ready to win. She started $41 last start but came from a long way back to just miss Tralee Rose, which is good form. Some of her form last prep once getting up in trip was quite good- her 2^nd to Stellar Impact at Cranbourne is good enough for this. German sticks from barrier 3, and ideally, she can position a pair closer this time.

 

(5) Night Witches also has form around Tralee Rose, finishing 5^th behind her at Flemington before an excellent win here over 1600m last start, coming from last to arrive just in time. I can’t see the step up in trip being an issue, but barrier one as usual could be a bit sticky.

 

(4) Deserved drops back to her own sex and has become quite consistent over this distance.

 

Tip: (1) Influential Girl $5 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Influential Girl

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(12) Esta La Roca has been scratched from tomorrow to line up here, and she looks well placed. She’s a real 1000m horse, built for speed, and she should be sitting just behind or outside the leader here. Her win at start number 2 last prep was good, and she was luckless at this track in a good 3yo fillies handicap behind Miss Divine Em.

 

(10) Goolagong Rose has been well backed and is the clear favourite. She absolutely bolted in on debut at Gawler as the $1.65 favourite, but that was over a year ago. She’s trialled well and Kah takes the ride so is an obvious chance.

 

(3) Young Liam endured a tough run here last start but is very quick early and will try to hold them out from barrier one. He’s certainly a chance, especially if the rail is hot.

 

Tip: (12) Esta La Roca $5 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Esta La Roca

 

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This is very tough, and somehow, I’ve found the rank outsider of the field, at $126. I speak of (11) Pat The Weapon, and off his form I can see why he’s such a big price. In two starts this prep, he’s finishes 11^th of 11, and 9^th of 9. Looking back through his record however, he never does anything first or second up. He’s managed two 3rds from 14 starts when first or second up but has finished 2^nd at 4 of his 6 starts when third up. Last prep, he finished 8^th of 8 first up, 10^th of 11^th second up, then ran 2^nd in a bm72 at Morphettville. He gets the blinkers on, and I think they’ll go forward from the wide barrier as he has done in the past. With 53kg on his back after the claim in a very open race, he’s worth a peanut each way.

 

(3) Pissaro made good late ground at Sandown last start after an okay 5^th at this T/D the start before.

 

That race was won by (6) Eaton who led all the way with the pattern onside at $41.

 

Not much would surprise here- and I think you’ll get a huge price on betfair for Pat The Weapon. Give him strength!

 

Tip: (11) Pat The Weapon $126 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 0.25/0.75 units E/W Pat The Weapon

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Not a race I’m particularly keen on. (5) Laundy probably deserves to be favourite coming off back to back 2^nd placings, including a good run Saturday behind Ocean’s Thirteen. He steps up to 2040m but being by Redwood I’d expect that to be a positive, and the quick backup should suit.

 

(6) Our Chevalier is racing very well over this distance range, and whilst he had every favour last start, he’s hard to knock.

 

(11) Lobster Noodles was solid on pace in a swoopers race behind Night Witches here over 1600m last start. She has won at this distance, but I’ve got queries on her at a strong 2000m and she does draw wide.

 

Tip: (5) Laundy $2.8 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I don’t mind (13) Helavabel in the last. He ran here first up and just got too far back from a wide gate in an on pace dominated race. His late splits were very strong relative to the night- his last 400m was only bettered by the very impressive Vowmaster. Drawn barrier 4 here he can settle much closer, and he does have a 3^rd in a strong 3yo race at this T/D. Olly sticks, he drops 3kg from last start, and he maps beautifully.

 

(11) Zoushack is a quality horse and should be in the finish with Kah on board.

 

(9) Heyington Station is a horse I have a bit of time for, but I’d like to see what he does here first up, drawn wide.

 

I think the price for Helavabel is good value, and at the odds he’ll be my best bet of the night.

 

Tip: (13) Helavabel $7.8 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Helavabel