Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 19th

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Tough opener. (3) Seguso was put away after a good debut run behind Rock The Ring. Not sure where he gets to from barrier 9 because I don’t think he’s quick enough to take up the running.

 

(4) Sensational Reward was good in two maidens last prep behind Frederick The Dane and Hickok, which is solid enough form. He can go forward, but the SA trial, whilst he won, wasn’t amazing when ridden out.

 

(6) Apres La Mer ran a narrow 2^nd two back when gapping 3^rd over 1000m at Wangaratta, and again ran 2^nd at Flemington last start behind Oxley Road who is well respected tomorrow at Caulfield. His last two runs have been over 1000m and I’m not sure he’s looking for the extra trip- he’s certainly had his chances.

 

(11) Lady Award started $6.50 behind Odeum on debut on a heavy track and was beaten 5.7L. She can definitely improve off that run on a firmer deck.

Tip: (4) Sensational Reward- $3.70 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

The staple 3000m race. (4) Darvin bolted in last start when able to lead and own the race. He draws out wide here, but I’d expect him to go forward and try to emulate that effort.

 

(6) Miss Five Hundred started odds on against Darvin last start after being truck-loaded in betting. She had her chance there and meets Darvin worse at the weights, so I’m not sure what to make of it given her SP.

 

(2) Saint Eustace was only 3.4L off Mosh Music and Double You Tee at Sandown. The 3000m suits and he gets J Kah who is a deadest weapon at The Valley. He’s never been one of mine but he’s right in this.

 

(7) Beachgoer won one of these two back but was no match for Darvin last start when getting back. He can improve with a better race shape at this track.

 

Tip: (2) Saint Eustace- $3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Saint Eustace

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(1) Aquagirl improved back around a bend last start at Sandown after failing down the straight first up. She wasn’t far off some quality 3yo filly’s last prep.

 

(4) Fresh was a good 2yo but didn’t come back last prep, beaten 7.7L and 5.5L in two starts. She’s jumped out well, but I’d want to see her perform as a 3yo before backing her.

 

(7) Buona Sera was strong late at Flemington behind Zesty Belle and Malicorne and can improve here. She’ has 6 weeks between runs but does drop to the 1000m.

 

(8) Kaniva was a strong winner on debut when leading all the way. She’s probably the leader here again from barrier 4 and if the track plays like it did last week she’ll be hard to run down.

 

Not much interest here- they’re an average, even bunch of fillies and I’d prefer to stay out.

Tip: (8) Kaniva- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(1) Mahashakti is going through the grades nicely, winning at this T/D in this grade last start. She goes up 2.5kg for that effort but does get Olly on.

 

(2) Librate just doesn’t seem to be going well enough this prep. Her 3yo form would make her very hard to beat in this, but her last two runs have been poor. She got back in a race not run to suit last start but even still, she finished last. I think her best chance is to roll forward and try and lead to see if she can do anything.

 

(5) Give Me Ten steps up in trip off a 1600m win at Pakenham where she led all the way. By Tavistock out of a Zabeel mare, I can only think the extra trip will suit, and the Moody stable is flying. She looks the leader again and can control this race which could be the difference.

 

(8) Pina wasn’t far off the favourite last start when tight for room. She meets that horse 2.5kg better for a 1.7L defeat and is very consistent.

Tip: (5) Give Me Ten- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Give Me ten

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(8) Forever Free is the horse to beat over the 955m. She’s a quick horse early and I think The Valley will really suit. First up last prep she was 1.5L off Muntaseera at Caulfield, beating home Portland Sky. Happy to forgive the Poseidon Stakes run down the straight which didn’t suit in much harder company. Drawn barrier 2 I think she’s quick enough to lead and she’ll be hard to run down. No spoil at the price but she’s the hardest to beat on the night.

 

(11) Almadrava won over this T/D two back and chased home Elderflower last start. She gets in on the minimum and if she can find cover midfield from barrier 9 she’ll be hitting the line strongly.

 

(4) The Last Napoleon wasn’t suited last start, and his best form is good enough. He’ll likely get a long way back from a wide gate again which is the query.

 

(7) Heavenly Bridges next best.

 

Tip: (8) Forever Free- $2.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Forever Free

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Thought the favourite (4) Coup De Tonnerre was short enough here. He started short first up at Pakenham but was a bit plain. His only win was on a heavy track over 1400m and whilst he’s been in some handy 3yo races I’m not sure he’s much good.

 

(3) Iowa Hawkeye looks ready to win 3^rd up. I liked the run at Pakenham last start when making good late ground behind Angaston. The 1600m suits and he should be peaking.

 

(2) Anirishman was also in that race, fresh off a small break. He was in an awkward spot and just battled late, 2L off Iowa Hawkeye. He should strip much fitter and is a horse that can be placed on speed, so I think Zahra will be keen to use barrier one to try and hold leader’s back rather than be buried.

 

(9) Just Stellar wasn’t far off Safe Passage two back which is good form, and was strong again last start at this T/D.

Tip: (2) Anirishman- $7.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Anirishman

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

The feature of the night- the Typhoon Tracy stakes at group 3 level over 1200m. Keen to have something on (10) Highly Discreet who comes here first up. She raced first up over this T/D last prep and finished hard for 2^nd behind Swats That which is the A grade form. She was scratched at the barriers a couple of weeks ago but this looks a good option for her, it just depends on how big a start she gives them from the barrier.

 

(11) Rainbiel was a moral beaten first up at Caulfield when badly held up. The barrier is a bit sticky for her too- not sure if they take their medicine and go right back or look for a spot closer to the speed.

 

(4) Night Raid is a horse I have plenty of time for- her win at this T/D last prep over Aidensfield and Odeum was very good and I think she’s better suited at the sprint trips. My query with her was the trial. Her first one over 1000m was fine, but her 2^nd one over 800m was awful, she was under hard riding and going nowhere. Not sure what to make of that but at her best she’d be right in this.

 

(1) Macroura was good first up last prep in a handy race against the older horses. She gets J Kah on fresh and gets a lovely map from barrier 4. She’s jumped out well and will be one of the hardest to beat.

 

Handy race on an otherwise lacklustre card. The barrier makes things tricky for Highly Discreet but if they can make ground, I think a repeat of her effort behind Swats That will make her very competitive at a good price.

 

Tip: (10) Highly Discreet- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Highly Discreet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Tricky finish. (9) Garvoc beat Savannah Cloud first up which is good form for this level. She does have a very good first up record so it’ll be interesting to see if she can maintain that form here. Her two failures were in listed company in Adelaide where she was beaten out of sight, so she can be a bit hit and miss. Barrier one probably isn’t ideal either- she likely ends up 3 back the rail.

 

(6) Deep Dive ran well first up down the straight. He’s better suited at 1200m and did bolt in 2^nd up last prep before walking in again at Morphettville. He’ll be hard to beat from barrier 2 as he likely finds the front.

 

(2) Sham I Am will be the one coming across to try and take the lead. He’s led and won his last two at this T/D at big prices and did beat a handy one in Real Gun last start. Gets the 3kg Rawiller claim which is ideal and can win again.

 

(7) Cielo D’oro has pulled up with issues his last two and did win at this T/D the start prior. He’ll likely get back from the map but is going quite well.

Tip: (6) Deep Dive- $3.60 at Bet365

Value: (2) Sham I Am- $10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Deep Dive, 0.5 units WIN Sham I Am