Canterbury Racing Tips: Friday, February 19th

Odds Last Updated: February 22, 2021, 2:23am (AEDT)

Tough little race to start the evening but I think we can start off with a decent each-way winner here.

(12) Camplin was fair on debut at Kensington and I strongly believe she can come on leaps and bounds from that run. She kicked hard early to try and lead, which is where she ended up and showed a nice kick in the straight. She was eventually over-run by Hilal and King of Sparta amongst others, but she showed some fight in the final 200m by fighting back and holding on for fifth. It didn’t look like the going affected her too much and from barrier two she should be able to use that gate speed to get into a nice position. Rachel King will just need to get her to settle and pinch a cheap sectional and she will be in the finish at a nice price.

(5) Kooled is one I am looking forward to seeing on a bigger track. He looks to have some ability, but I think he will end up mapping poorly and we know the Hawkes team don’t like putting their horses out of their comfort zone, so I think he settles midfield or worse. He could win this, but I think I will save my cash on him for another day.

(8) Single Honor is another who is a nice each-way price and followed rival (12) Camplin everywhere last start. Unfortunately, he was held up a touch and when (12) Camplin accelerated away, (8) Single Honor didn’t really pick up. He will get into a nice spot here and there won’t be any hard luck stories here. He may just want to keep rolling along and if (12) Camplin tires, he will be right behind to strike.

Tip: (12) Camplin $9.00/$2.50 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Camplin FIXED

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

It will be interesting to see if we have any late tactics changes here with no speed drawn.

(7) Spirituality goes on top for me here with no confidence. She was a touch slow out last start which immediately put her on the back foot but she wasn’t going to be a match for Jenga on the day, but she still fought hard into third behind Jenga and In Flanders. With no speed drawn here, I think she leads from the good draw which will give her every chance. She doesn’t have much of a turn of foot so leading at a good gallop on this heavy going will give her the best chance possible. Tim Clark is the best man to do this, so let’s hope that’s what they are thinking too.

(2) Military Parade comes into calculations if the track plays fairly in the first because he is going to get back. He is going to hate this race with no pace as I believe that is what ruined his chances last time. He faces a heavy track for the first time also, so be cautious if you head that way for a selection. Not for me.

(5) Latin Lyric just can’t seem to make that next step with three placings this preparation. It seems likely again and with the likelihood that we will end up with seven runners of less, she doesn’t look an ideal bet from her map but again if there is a change of tactics, she can make herself known.

Tip: (7) Spirituality $4.80

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

This is (6) Quiet Riot’s race for the taking if they want it and hopefully, they don’t scratch here and head to Rosehill Saturday. He is coming back from a lengthy break and just one trial in the lead up which was very soft as he just sat at the back of the field and cruised through. He must be going well for them to attack a benchmark 72 first-up or a benchmark 78 tomorrow at Rosehill, so I am not too worried about his fitness. He is drawn to head forward and box seat behind (1) Kosciusko and based on past runs, should be too good for the opposition with a trouble-free run. The only concern for me is the track conditions but I think class can help him through.

(1) Kosciusko will lead this race easily from the draw and has to contend with a 2kg penalty after his nice win here at Canterbury last start. Griffiths claim of 3kg comes in handy here and he showed that a heavy track is not his concern. I think the weight may come into play late, but he is a silly price for a horse who will make his own luck in front. Definitely goes into the numbers at the price.

(4) Shadow Bridge is the only other one I could entertain in this race, especially if (6) Quiet Riot comes out. With him in the race I think too much will have to be done to get to the front but if he comes out, he should get into a nice position behind or outside the leader.

Tip: (1) Kosciusko $8.10/$3.55 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Kosciusko FIXED

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

This is a two-horse race, and I will be surprised if one of these two don’t salute.

(2) Vulpine didn’t have to put in a lot of effort in her 1.3 length win at Warwick Farm last start. She led comfortably and got a soft time of it in front before kicking away. She is nominated for Saturday as well so it remains to be seen where they go, but with a brilliant draw and the 2kg claim of Tom Sherry, she should be able kick away on the turn.

(1) Brazen Gem is the other one. She probably should have won here two starts ago behind the tough Vreneli before coming back to the scene of the crime in fillies and mares’ grade to salute comfortably under the urgings of James McDonald. He sticks with her here and gets a 2.5kg penalty for the win. Although I do like (2) Vulpine back to 1100m, if she does go astray or even runs on Saturday, this girl will get a nice dream run from the draw.

(4) Invincible Kiss the best of the rest.

Tip: (1) Brazen Gem $2.55

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Brazen Gem FIXED

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

This is another tough race with a lot of horses well in the market looking to bounce back here.

(4) Anotherthinkcomin’ did everything last start but win at Gosford after leading the entire way over the mile except for where it counted. I thought maybe the step from 1350m to 1600m was a touch too much third-up, but he will be nice and fit off that run. The start before he was dominant at Wyong winning by 3.8 lengths against Kaptive and Apex. Another go at the mile is ideal and although he is drawn wide, he will go forward and likely lead and really give them something to catch with his fitness. There is a small question mark over how he will go on the heavy, but I think he can use that fitness to give himself a nice lead on the bend.

(1) Ruddock will love the conditions at hand and will get a 2kg claim of Louise Day. The distance is perfect and the draw ideal to head forward and sit in a prominent position. He has been up since October so that is some concern, and he hasn’t really won any races of note.

(5) Harmonium won’t mind the sting out of the ground and gains James McDonald as the jock. The step back in grade will also help but she will need to do more than last start to prove she can handle this sort of distance.

Tip: (4) Anotherthinkcomin’ $5.60

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Anotherthinkcomin’ FIXED

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Not a race I will be betting into.

(7) Silent Agenda looks the one after a string of placings and they will be hoping he can break that here. Two back he was pipped on the line by Miss Redoble over 1550m on heavy going before coming back to Canterbury over 1900m, where he again went down narrowly, this time to California Longbow. He should be able to come across from his barrier and settle behind the leaders before getting a nice trail into the race. The heavy going is no issue and I love the quick back-up. He is a top chance.

(2) Dylan’s Romance will lead this race no worries and if he can get some soft sectionals, he will be hard to run down. He will want the rain to stay away and for the track to improve a touch, but his fitness and race pattern put him into calculations.

(1) Dalmatia Prince looks the best of the rest getting out to a much more suitable distance.

Tip: (7) Silent Agenda $3.60

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

This is another gross race to assess and I can’t believe I am going to put (5) Welsh Legend on top but here it is. At her best she is the one you want to be with, but she will have to show significant improvement of a lacklustre first-up run in Saturday grade. She is much more suited to 1550m than what she tackled first-up so we should see significant improvement and she doesn’t mind a wet track. She should get into a nice position from the draw, but I won’t be jumping in.

 (2) Bergen was going to go on top for me but the heavy track form is a little less than desirable. He ran well up in grade last start and drops back to a more suitable grade and drops 2kg for Sherry’s claim. He will sit in a nice position throughout and if he can get through the going, is a top chance.

(7) Mercurial Lad loves these conditions but the last couple of times he has come to town and run-on heavy goings, he has failed miserably. He will carry no weight thanks to Griffiths claim and will sit ideally in front from barrier two. This is his best chance to win in town and at a price that is entertainable.

Tip: (5) Welsh Legend $5.00

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Tough race to finish on here.

(3) Equation is nominated for Saturday but with no rider engaged, he is likely to race here. He is drawn ideally in barrier two but may get beaten for early speed so he will have to settle on the rail behind (2) Nuclear Summit. He returned with a decent run at Gosford, winning by half a length whilst beating the remainder of the field by 4 lengths+. His form on wet ground is good and he should improve out of sight second-up. Providing he runs here; he is going to be hard to beat.

(5) Stormy Rock is coming off a modest run at Warwick Farm where he went down a length in third. Before that he looked home at Warwick Farm the start prior before being beaten narrowly by Blondeau. He will appreciate the heavy going and from the draw, he should get a kind cart into the race.

(13) Jenga looks the best of the rest but with no rider engaged yet, running him might be up in the air.

Tip: (3) Equation $4.00

Betting Strategy: No Bet