Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 5th

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

We are going to need an A1 ride from Damien Oliver to kick things off, because he’s drawn 9 over 1000m on (4) Smokin’ Val, who travels over from Adelaide for this first up assignment. She bolted in on debut at Murray Bridge back in August, spacing her rivals by 4L. She then failed as favourite at Morphettville, before running 2^nd to Celestine down the straight at Flemington. Behind her in 3^rd that day was La Mexicana, who has now won four of her six starts. The positive here is that there looks to be plenty of speed in the race. We just need some luck and a gun ride.

(6) Zelify also returns from a spell for Waller and Lane. She was good first up last prep without much luck, and was then backed as if unbeatable at Ballarat second up, where she bolted in. The 1000m is some query but not really a big issue. The barrier could be interesting though. She showed speed to sit outside the leader in her victory last prep, but if something crosses her and she gets snookered on the fence, she’s going to need plenty of luck and a good bit of riding.

(3) Kokomo Bliss won on debut at Wangaratta and the horse that ran 3^rd then came out and won easily at Kilmore.

(2) Cut It Out is from a stable that typically have their horses ready to go fresh over these sorts of distances and in these sorts of races.

Pretty happy to keep it simple early and back who I think are the two best horses in the race – Smokin’ Val at $4.85 and Zelify at $3.50.

Tip: (4) Smokin’ Val $4.85 Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (6) Zelify $3.50

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Smokin’ Val, 1 unit WIN Zelify

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

Interested in playing a couple at decent odds in a wide-open race here. (9) Angelic Scent comes here on debut (I hope), though she’s nominated for Ballarat on Sunday and Sandown on Wednesday, so we’ll have to see what they do. She’s jumped out smartly and Matt Laurie runners always run well here at Moonee Valley, so at double figure odds I’m keen to back her. She’s drawn wide so it really wouldn’t surprise if they withdrew her, but if she does line up, that must be a sign of confidence.

(11) Astronomicelle is big odds but her first two career starts have actually been sound. She was 7^th on debut at Yarra Valley but recorded the fastest final 200m of that race, and then recorded the fastest final 400m and 200m in defeat here at Moonee Valley last start.

(7) The Cruiser has talent. He jumped out nicely leading into his first up run here and isn’t hopeless. The blinkers and tongue tie go on tonight.

(4) Silly Point gets C Williams booked but barrier 1 can be a coffin at Moonee Valley.

It’s always risky taking on a Danny O’Brien/Damian Lane runner, but I can’t get (10) Ethekwini that short in a race this open.

Tip: (9) Angelic Scent $12 Sportsbet

Value: (11) Astronomicelle $19 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Angelic Scent, 0.25 units WIN Astronomicelle

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

Super keen to have something on (3) Emperor Selassie here at $41! This horse is on debut for the Danny O’Brien stable, having previously been trained by Jarrod Robinson, Jason Warren and originally Pat Carey. He’s actually been competitive at this level and at this distance in the past, in fact he’s placed in three of his four starts at the mile. Danny O has had prior success turning horses in these colours around when they come to his stable (Serengeti, Impi, Namibia etc), though those three have all won at their second run for the stable. We might be going off one run too early but Jamie Kah goes straight on and at $41, he’s worth a bet. He doesn’t go on soft tracks so the big concern would be if Moonee Valley cops the rain that’s predicted in Melbourne.

In an open race, that’s the only horse that appeals.

Tip: (3) Emperor Selassie $41/$9.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Emperor Selassie

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Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

The 955m challenge is a complete dartboard job and you couldn’t pay me to bet in it. With that said, there is a lot to like about the favourite (7) Ice Ice Baby with Jamie Kah aboard. He’s the lightest-raced horse in the field with just four starts to his name, which includes a win over 1200m here before failing behind Portland Sky last time we saw him. Portland Sky was the winner of last weekend’s Manfred Stakes so that formline is very handy. She looks the obvious choice but these races can be awful to bet in.

(6) Heavenly Bridges drops back to 64 grade after finishing 3^rd behind Elderflower in 70 grade last time out. Prior to that she won back-to-back races at Yarra Valley. She can go well at each way odds.

(8) Orazio can run a cheeky race at $67. He didn’t have any luck last start, nor the race three starts back when also caught wide. Ignore them and the two wins he notched up either side look pretty good.

(1) Oh So Rewarding bolted in over 1000m here last start and remains in the same grade. Gets in pretty well at the weights all things considered and must rate highly again.

Tip: (7) Ice Ice Baby $3.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(7) La Bella Costa is flying this prep. First up she came from last to be beaten less than 2L. She then went to Mornington second up and again came from off the speed to charge home over the top of her rivals, and last start she was beaten 0.3L as a $41 pop down the Flemington straight. Matt Laurie runners normally run well whenever he brings them to The Valley and on current form, she should be exceptionally hard to hold out if the track is playing fairly. My only slight concern would be a very wet track.

That same concern applies to (3) Exeter who is having his second start for Danny O’Brien. His first run for the stable came in that same race as La Bella Costa at Flemington, where he was just fair. He’s never done anything first up so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him come out and improve sharply. The gate is a negative and so is the wet ground, but I know this horse has talent and DOB might be the one to bring it out of him.

Damien Oliver jumps off Exeter and sticks with (11) Madam Superior, who he rode two starts ago. She’s the winner of just one race but she’s rarely far away. She’s placed in six of her eight starts at the distance and should be right thereabouts again.

Tip: (7) La Bella Costa $2.75 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN La Bella Costa

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Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(2) Coin Collector gets his chance back down in grade to a 64 tonight, after running 2^nd here last start in a BM70. Campbell Rawiller brings him down to a similar weight to what he carried last start, so provided he’s kept his form, he should be giving this a very big shake.

(1) Humble Pie is another that cops a heavy drop in grade, down to a BM64 from a BM78. Has run well in both starts here at The Valley.

The one I really want to include is (9) Atlantic Giant at $51. She may well be outclassed, but I’m going to have something on at that price. She’s clearly an out-and-out stayer, bred by Melbourne Cup winner Americain, who also loved the wet ground. She won her maiden at Werribee last start over 2044m at just her third career start. So the stamina shouldn’t be an issue, it’s just whether the class is a bit sharp for her. Drawn wide so she’ll be out the back, but it wouldn’t shock me to see her run a good race here.

Tip: (2) Coin Collector $3.40 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Atlantic Giant $51 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Coin Collector, 0.25 units E/W Atlantic Giant

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

It looks a good race for the favourite (5) Upswing, who comes here on the quick backup after finishing 4^th at Caulfield last weekend. That was behind the likes of War Critic and Hasseltoff, so he should find this a bit easier. Jamie Kah replaces Billy Egan and draws well in barrier 6, the horse handles soft ground and so long as she isn’t too far back in the run, it looks his race.

(3) Fanciful Toff was very heavily backed second up last prep and he comes into this race with a similar set up. Up to 2000m second up with some gear changes, we could see the best of him, which would be good enough to win this.

Waller bringing (9) Spirit into this first up over 2040m is an interesting tactic and one we don’t see often from the stable. I’d be watching the market very closely – if he’s firm I’d be very wary.

Tip: (5) Upswing $3.20 Bet365

Value: (3) Fanciful Toff $9.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Upswing, 0.5 units WIN Fanciful Toff

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(1) Miss Damita started favourite in a BM78 at Flemington last start and although disappointing, she looks well-placed to make amends tonight. Back to a BM70 for fillies and mares, she should be able to roll forward from the wide gate to land on speed. Provided she handles the ground, she should be going close.

(4) Horse For Higher has won two of her past three starts and didn’t get much luck in the run between those, when held up for the final 300m at Caulfield. Whether she would have won is another argument, but she didn’t get any daylight at all for us to know. Her win here last start was sound but the big query has to be if the rain arrives, because she’s yet to win from nine starts on wet ground.

(10) Queen Of Tarts will love wet ground and she can be included at big odds. She’s done very little in two runs back from a spell but she gets blinkers on for the first time and all her best form is on rain-affected going.

(6) Mahashakti has won her past two in good style and must be rated highly.

Tip: (1) Miss Damita $4.60 TAB

Value: (10) Queen Of Tarts $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Miss Damita, 0.25 units E/W Queen Of Tarts