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Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 5th

Friday night racing takes place at Moonee Valley and Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below.

Moonee Valley tips

Friday night horse racing takes place at Moonee Valley this week, with the first of eight races scheduled to run at 6.30pm AEDT.

There is a stack of rain predicted to hit Melbourne, so if that hits The Valley, we could be racing on a fairly saturated deck. The rail is out 7m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on tonight’s card with his tips and betting strategy. His best bet is due to run in Race 5, while his best value bet is a $41 chance in Race 3.

Find his full analysis of tonight’s Moonee Valley card below!

Best Bet: Race 5 – (7) La Bella Costa

Best Value: Race 3 – (3) Emperor Selassie

 

WinnersBet

0

Race 1

Ladbrokes Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1000m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Ladbrokes Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1000m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

1. Coasting Along (8) J: Ms Melissa Julius (59.5kg) T: P A Chow
1616171816.616
2. Cut It Out (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: John Mcardle
101111111011
3. Kokomo Bliss (5) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (59.5kg) T: D J Mccarthy
2119161921.515
4. Smokin' Val (9) J: Damien Oliver (59.5kg) T: Jon O'connor
444.84.44.454
5. Entrapped (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (59kg) T: G J Mcculloch
777.57.57.27
6. Zelify (2) J: Damian Lane (59kg) T: C J Waller
3.33.43.33.43.253.5
7. Dana Point (6) J: Campbell Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Brent Stanley
4.84.64.24.44.254.4
8. Madam Mischief (1) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: P F Ryan
232126262523
9. Unassailable (3) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: P F Ryan
101918110111171

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

We are going to need an A1 ride from Damien Oliver to kick things off, because he’s drawn 9 over 1000m on (4) Smokin’ Val, who travels over from Adelaide for this first up assignment. She bolted in on debut at Murray Bridge back in August, spacing her rivals by 4L. She then failed as favourite at Morphettville, before running 2nd to Celestine down the straight at Flemington. Behind her in 3rd that day was La Mexicana, who has now won four of her six starts. The positive here is that there looks to be plenty of speed in the race. We just need some luck and a gun ride.

(6) Zelify also returns from a spell for Waller and Lane. She was good first up last prep without much luck, and was then backed as if unbeatable at Ballarat second up, where she bolted in. The 1000m is some query but not really a big issue. The barrier could be interesting though. She showed speed to sit outside the leader in her victory last prep, but if something crosses her and she gets snookered on the fence, she’s going to need plenty of luck and a good bit of riding.

(3) Kokomo Bliss won on debut at Wangaratta and the horse that ran 3rd then came out and won easily at Kilmore.

(2) Cut It Out is from a stable that typically have their horses ready to go fresh over these sorts of distances and in these sorts of races.

Pretty happy to keep it simple early and back who I think are the two best horses in the race – Smokin’ Val at $4.85 and Zelify at $3.50.

Tip: (4) Smokin’ Val $4.85 Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (6) Zelify $3.50

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Smokin’ Val, 1 unit WIN Zelify

0

Race 2

Behind The Barriers Mdn Plate (1200m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Behind The Barriers Mdn Plate (1200m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

1. Apache Star (13) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58kg) T: A & S Freedman
7666.56.65.5
2. Dissonance (3) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: M A Kavanagh
1618161918.617
3. Joltin' Joe (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: Paul & Tracey Templeton
465151615751
4. Silly Point (1) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
4.64.54.64.64.654.2
5. Snapper (12) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: M D Moroney
343434313534
6. South Parade (6) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: J D Sadler
7. The Cruiser (9) J: Arron Lynch (58kg) T: F Stockdale
141412131314
8. Vitruvius (10) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: P A Preusker
9. Angelic Scent (11) J: Ethan Brown (56kg) T: M M Laurie
232119212021
10. Ethekwini (4) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: D T O'brien
2.12.152.252.152.052.2
11. Astronomicelle (2) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: C F Hyland
2126312627.531
12. Kichierro (7) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P Stokes
192626262323
13. Happy Winner (5) J: Unknown (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

Interested in playing a couple at decent odds in a wide-open race here. (9) Angelic Scent comes here on debut (I hope), though she’s nominated for Ballarat on Sunday and Sandown on Wednesday, so we’ll have to see what they do. She’s jumped out smartly and Matt Laurie runners always run well here at Moonee Valley, so at double figure odds I’m keen to back her. She’s drawn wide so it really wouldn’t surprise if they withdrew her, but if she does line up, that must be a sign of confidence.

(11) Astronomicelle is big odds but her first two career starts have actually been sound. She was 7th on debut at Yarra Valley but recorded the fastest final 200m of that race, and then recorded the fastest final 400m and 200m in defeat here at Moonee Valley last start.

(7) The Cruiser has talent. He jumped out nicely leading into his first up run here and isn’t hopeless. The blinkers and tongue tie go on tonight.

(4) Silly Point gets C Williams booked but barrier 1 can be a coffin at Moonee Valley.

It’s always risky taking on a Danny O’Brien/Damian Lane runner, but I can’t get (10) Ethekwini that short in a race this open.

Tip: (9) Angelic Scent $12 Sportsbet

Value: (11) Astronomicelle $19 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Angelic Scent, 0.25 units WIN Astronomicelle

0

Race 3

Pepsi Max (Bm64) (1600m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Pepsi Max (Bm64) (1600m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

1. Florida Dream (12) J: Lewis German (62kg) T: Luke Oliver
2. The Great One (14) J: Campbell Rawiller (62kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
4.245.54.64.253.7
3. Emperor Selassie (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (61kg) T: D T O'brien
1211121311.611
4. Rebellious Lord (11) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: M J O'donnell
313131313231
5. Cassius (7) J: Thomas Stockdale (60.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
3.73.63.63.83.754
6. Packer's Bond (5) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (60.5kg) T: Mitchell Beer
7. Subrunner (1) J: Lachlan King (60.5kg) T: S J Richards
8. Ocean Heart (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
161617171717
9. Global Sanction (6) J: Ethan Brown (58.5kg) T: Mitchell Beer
10. Lady Delight (3) J: Ms Melissa Julius (58.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
66.5666.36.5
11. Inkslinger (10) J: Campbell Rawiller (59kg) T: Brian Mcgrath
1211121111.211
12. Suretoshine (2) J: Craig Newitt (56.5kg) T: Leanne Doyle
8.59998.79
13. Kiss In Spring (13) J: Will Price (55.5kg) T: S A Dwyer
8.58.5887.98
14. Office Jim (9) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: A & S Freedman

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

Super keen to have something on (3) Emperor Selassie here at $41! This horse is on debut for the Danny O’Brien stable, having previously been trained by Jarrod Robinson, Jason Warren and originally Pat Carey. He’s actually been competitive at this level and at this distance in the past, in fact he’s placed in three of his four starts at the mile. Danny O has had prior success turning horses in these colours around when they come to his stable (Serengeti, Impi, Namibia etc), though those three have all won at their second run for the stable. We might be going off one run too early but Jamie Kah goes straight on and at $41, he’s worth a bet. He doesn’t go on soft tracks so the big concern would be if Moonee Valley cops the rain that’s predicted in Melbourne.

In an open race, that’s the only horse that appeals.

Tip: (3) Emperor Selassie $41/$9.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Emperor Selassie

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0

Race 4

Ladbrokes 55 Second Chal.-Bm64 (955m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Ladbrokes 55 Second Chal.-Bm64 (955m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

1. Oh So Rewarding (10) J: Matthew Cartwright (61.5kg) T: B J Mccarthy
87.5787.57.5
2. Young Liam (12) J: Jordan Childs (61.5kg) T: M & L Cerchi
1515141614.813
3. Choice Harvest (3) J: Campbell Rawiller (61kg) T: Craig Weeding
1717171717.217
4. Metro Boy (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (61kg) T: N J Dyer
816161616561
5. Black Opal (14) J: Patrick Moloney (59kg) T: J F Moloney
1821201916.821
6. Heavenly Bridges (2) J: Will Price (59kg) T: Henry Dwyer
11119.51211.29.5
7. Ice Ice Baby (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (59kg) T: Ms W Kelly
2.352.352.452.42.452.3
8. Orazio (5) J: Teodore Nugent (59kg) T: Ben Brisbourne
465151413951
9. Cruizie Captain (11) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (58.5kg) T: Brian Lawlor
109.510109.510
10. Hidden Charm (7) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: G A Osborne
555.55.55.15.5
11. Oxley Jack (4) J: Joe Bowditch (58kg) T: Colin Scott
12. Summer Show (13) J: Thomas Stockdale (55kg) T: Justin Pickering
13. Let Loose (8) J: Lewis German (57kg) T: D J Bourne
14. Too Hard To Handle (1) J: Jarrod Fry (56.5kg) T: Kate Goodrich

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

The 955m challenge is a complete dartboard job and you couldn’t pay me to bet in it. With that said, there is a lot to like about the favourite (7) Ice Ice Baby with Jamie Kah aboard. He’s the lightest-raced horse in the field with just four starts to his name, which includes a win over 1200m here before failing behind Portland Sky last time we saw him. Portland Sky was the winner of last weekend’s Manfred Stakes so that formline is very handy. She looks the obvious choice but these races can be awful to bet in.

(6) Heavenly Bridges drops back to 64 grade after finishing 3rd behind Elderflower in 70 grade last time out. Prior to that she won back-to-back races at Yarra Valley. She can go well at each way odds.

(8) Orazio can run a cheeky race at $67. He didn’t have any luck last start, nor the race three starts back when also caught wide. Ignore them and the two wins he notched up either side look pretty good.

(1) Oh So Rewarding bolted in over 1000m here last start and remains in the same grade. Gets in pretty well at the weights all things considered and must rate highly again.

Tip: (7) Ice Ice Baby $3.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 5

Adapt Valley Summer (Bm64) (1200m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Adapt Valley Summer (Bm64) (1200m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

1. Echo Jet (3) J: Matthew Allen (63kg) T: Thomas Nikolic
917171814981
2. Oamanikka (4) J: Campbell Rawiller (62.5kg) T: Ms D Scott
109.58.51010.89
3. Exeter (13) J: Ms Jamie Kah (62kg) T: D T O'brien
4.54.24.44.44.054
4. It'sayesfromme (8) J: Matthew Cartwright (62kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
1714131613.810
5. Mount Mitty (12) J: Lachlan Neindorf (62kg) T: Brent Stanley
232120212021
6. Mnementh (11) J: Thomas Stockdale (61.5kg) T: Mitchell Beer
7. La Bella Costa (7) J: Will Price (61kg) T: M M Laurie
2.42.62.62.62.552.6
8. La Sante (2) J: Lachlan King (61kg) T: Ms D Scott
9. Sovereign Legend (6) J: Michael Dee (60.5kg) T: J D Sadler
10. Canelo (1) J: Jordan Childs (60kg) T: M & L Cerchi
414141414134
11. Madam Superior (5) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: M Cornish & Ms D Gaskin
4.84.85.54.655
12. St Hilarion (10) J: Unknown (57.5kg) T: Saab Hasan
262621262623
13. Ping Ping (9) J: Ms Sally Wynne (59.5kg) T: Sally Wynne
514151314351
14. Mosscon (14) J: Beau Mertens (57kg) T: D R Brideoake

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(7) La Bella Costa is flying this prep. First up she came from last to be beaten less than 2L. She then went to Mornington second up and again came from off the speed to charge home over the top of her rivals, and last start she was beaten 0.3L as a $41 pop down the Flemington straight. Matt Laurie runners normally run well whenever he brings them to The Valley and on current form, she should be exceptionally hard to hold out if the track is playing fairly. My only slight concern would be a very wet track.

That same concern applies to (3) Exeter who is having his second start for Danny O’Brien. His first run for the stable came in that same race as La Bella Costa at Flemington, where he was just fair. He’s never done anything first up so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him come out and improve sharply. The gate is a negative and so is the wet ground, but I know this horse has talent and DOB might be the one to bring it out of him.

Damien Oliver jumps off Exeter and sticks with (11) Madam Superior, who he rode two starts ago. She’s the winner of just one race but she’s rarely far away. She’s placed in six of her eight starts at the distance and should be right thereabouts again.

Tip: (7) La Bella Costa $2.75 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN La Bella Costa

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0

Race 6

Schweppes Valley Summer (Bm64) (2500m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Schweppes Valley Summer (Bm64) (2500m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

1. Humble Pie (5) J: Ms Melissa Julius (64.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
3.43.43.83.43.453.4
2. Coin Collector (3) J: Campbell Rawiller (62.5kg) T: D T O'brien
2.452.452.72.62.452.3
3. Guns Ablazing (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (60kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
1212111211.810
4. Set Us Free (8) J: Harry Grace (59.5kg) T: R J Blacker
8.58798.38.5
5. Byalip (13) J: Lewis German (59kg) T: R W Harrison
1614121615.813
6. Under The Bridge (14) J: Joe Bowditch (59kg) T: Symon Wilde
3131263126.534
7. Bakery Hill (2) J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg) T: Amy Mcdonald
464134314361
8. Queen Guinevere (6) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: S Fliedner
10109.51110.210
9. Atlantic Giant (12) J: Jason Benbow (57kg) T: J W Bridgman
415134414751
10. Express Raider (1) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (57kg) T: Nicholas Roe
615167615351
11. Eaton (9) J: Teodore Nugent (58.5kg) T: M & L Cerchi
12. Just As Soon (11) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
13. Saving (7) J: Arron Lynch (58kg) T: Tim Hughes
14. Danluca (10) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Jackson Pallot

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(2) Coin Collector gets his chance back down in grade to a 64 tonight, after running 2nd here last start in a BM70. Campbell Rawiller brings him down to a similar weight to what he carried last start, so provided he’s kept his form, he should be giving this a very big shake.

(1) Humble Pie is another that cops a heavy drop in grade, down to a BM64 from a BM78. Has run well in both starts here at The Valley.

The one I really want to include is (9) Atlantic Giant at $51. She may well be outclassed, but I’m going to have something on at that price. She’s clearly an out-and-out stayer, bred by Melbourne Cup winner Americain, who also loved the wet ground. She won her maiden at Werribee last start over 2044m at just her third career start. So the stamina shouldn’t be an issue, it’s just whether the class is a bit sharp for her. Drawn wide so she’ll be out the back, but it wouldn’t shock me to see her run a good race here.

Tip: (2) Coin Collector $3.40 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Atlantic Giant $51 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Coin Collector, 0.25 units E/W Atlantic Giant

0

Race 7

Mooneevalleypark.Com.Au (Bm70) (2040m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Mooneevalleypark.Com.Au (Bm70) (2040m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

1. Aloft (4) J: Lewis German (64kg) T: E V Musgrove
71817110111171
2. Spanish Steps (12) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (64kg) T: D J Mccarthy
126126101101121101
3. Fanciful Toff (9) J: Teodore Nugent (61.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
7.57.587.578
4. Donndubhan (11) J: Craig Williams (61kg) T: Brent Stanley
6.56766.46
5. Upswing (6) J: Ms Jamie Kah (61kg) T: Patrick Payne
3.53.43.33.43.63.2
6. Noumea (10) J: Arron Lynch (60kg) T: E V Musgrove
15112610110113181
7. Ridgewood Drive (8) J: Declan Bates (59kg) T: A & S Freedman
4.85554.955.5
8. Outlandos (3) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
4.44.64.44.44.254.2
9. Spirit (1) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: C J Waller
3431313128.526
10. Perfect Illusion (13) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: Mitchell Beer
1110101010.210
11. Green Ivy (5) J: Unknown (57kg) T: K & K Keys
12. Stogursey Prince (7) J: Will Price (56.5kg) T: Ms G Browne
13. Black Beau Tie (2) J: Unknown (55kg) T: G F Wheeler

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

It looks a good race for the favourite (5) Upswing, who comes here on the quick backup after finishing 4th at Caulfield last weekend. That was behind the likes of War Critic and Hasseltoff, so he should find this a bit easier. Jamie Kah replaces Billy Egan and draws well in barrier 6, the horse handles soft ground and so long as she isn’t too far back in the run, it looks his race.

(3) Fanciful Toff was very heavily backed second up last prep and he comes into this race with a similar set up. Up to 2000m second up with some gear changes, we could see the best of him, which would be good enough to win this.

Waller bringing (9) Spirit into this first up over 2040m is an interesting tactic and one we don’t see often from the stable. I’d be watching the market very closely – if he’s firm I’d be very wary.

Tip: (5) Upswing $3.20 Bet365

Value: (3) Fanciful Toff $9.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Upswing, 0.5 units WIN Fanciful Toff

0

Race 8

Ascend Sales Trophies (Bm70) (2040m)
10:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Ascend Sales Trophies (Bm70) (2040m)
10:00pm (AEDT)

1. Miss Damita (11) J: Campbell Rawiller (62.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
4.24.44.84.64.454.4
2. Irish Delight (5) J: Ms Melissa Julius (60kg) T: Symon Wilde
313134313226
3. Anikery (6) J: Lewis German (58.5kg) T: Daniel Williams
4. Horse For Higher (3) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: Dan O'sullivan
1211121111.612
5. Perennial (12) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (58.5kg) T: P G Moody
7.57.58.57.57.77.5
6. Mahashakti (9) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
55555.15
7. Sinamay (1) J: Jack Hill (58kg) T: S A Mcintosh
232120192021
8. My Diamonds Galore (2) J: Jamie Mott (57kg) T: M D Moroney
55554.95
9. Sanctuaire (7) J: Jake Noonan (56.5kg) T: A W Noonan
1313141413.615
10. Queen Of Tarts (8) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
1918201917.217
11. Pina (4) J: Damien Thornton (55.5kg) T: M C Kent
10109.59.59.410
12. Fintona Queen (10) J: Unknown (55kg) T: K & K Keys

Odds Last Updated: February 6, 2021, 3:41am (AEDT)

(1) Miss Damita started favourite in a BM78 at Flemington last start and although disappointing, she looks well-placed to make amends tonight. Back to a BM70 for fillies and mares, she should be able to roll forward from the wide gate to land on speed. Provided she handles the ground, she should be going close.

(4) Horse For Higher has won two of her past three starts and didn’t get much luck in the run between those, when held up for the final 300m at Caulfield. Whether she would have won is another argument, but she didn’t get any daylight at all for us to know. Her win here last start was sound but the big query has to be if the rain arrives, because she’s yet to win from nine starts on wet ground.

(10) Queen Of Tarts will love wet ground and she can be included at big odds. She’s done very little in two runs back from a spell but she gets blinkers on for the first time and all her best form is on rain-affected going.

(6) Mahashakti has won her past two in good style and must be rated highly.

Tip: (1) Miss Damita $4.60 TAB

Value: (10) Queen Of Tarts $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Miss Damita, 0.25 units E/W Queen Of Tarts

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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