Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, January 22nd

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

2500m opener, and I can’t have (4) Coin Collector so short given he was beaten 7.3L last start at Caulfield with no apparent excuse. The win prior was good, but he didn’t beat much, and he’s never been a horse I’ve had an opinion of.

 

(1) Playoffs steps up to the 2500m after two solid on pace efforts over 2000m. I can’t say for sure he’ll love the longer trip but he’s racing consistently. At $3.50 or thereabouts I’m happy to be against here.

 

(3) Quaffany can improve on the quick backup out to the 2500m. Some of his staying form last year is good enough for this, but he’s been underwhelming for the majority of this prep.

 

(7) Byalip is better suited over the 3000m trip but is racing well and will get the trip no worries.

 

This is an average race. I’m keen to get involved later and therefore will be sitting out here. I’d be laying Coin Collector if I were to play.

 

Tip: (1) Playoffs $3.75 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Another very tough race with most of the field on debut. (6) Hauraki Gulf has jumped out very nicely and looks suited here from barrier 2. Zahra takes the ride, and the stable is generally very competitive with their 2yo’s.

 

(13) Telluride looks the best of the raced brigade, coming off a 2^nd placing down the straight. I don’t think she was particularly suited there, racing along the inside when the winner came several lanes wider. The barrier is tricky, and she may have to go back.

 

(5) Gosden is another that draws wide but should be respected purely for the trainer jockey combo, with Kah taking the ride for Will Clarken.

 

(2) Aquapishe has been well backed early. The stable had a 2yo winner recently with Abseiler, who beat Telluride at Flemington.

 

Tip: (6) Hauraki Gulf $6.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

(1) Elderflower has to be the horse to beat. She didn’t disappoint as best of the day last start at Caulfield, working to the lead and racing away by 2.75L. She was a tough winner 4^th up last prep and should be able to sit outside the leader and prove too fast again with the 3kg claim bringing her down to 59.5kg.

 

(3) Almadrava is the danger. She won a similar race last start and whilst she got a beautiful run from barrier one, getting off the fence at the perfect time, it was a solid win. Lane sticks and she draws barrier one again, so she will need luck at the right time to give chase to Elderflower.

 

Proud Mia being scratched isn’t ideal, as Elderflower is into $1.65. She should find the front now and be almost unbeatable. Anything $1.75+ is a launch job.

 

Elderflower clearly on top from Almadrava. No spoils at the even money and she’s not a complete moral, but she should be winning.

 

Tip: (1) Elderflower $1.72 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Elderflower

 

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Only a small field for the feature of the night, the group 2 Australia Stakes. (3) Viridine is the horse to beat, as the market suggests. Both runs this prep have been good, especially the first at Rosehill with 61kg when back and wide, making a stack of late ground. He went to Eagle Farm last start and was solid behind Roheryn and The Odyssey, with that horse winning on Magic Millions day. I think he’s a bit short at $1.85 but does look hard to beat.

 

(5) Tavisan is the danger. If this were 1100m I’d be having a good bet at him, because I still think he’s suspect at the end of 1200m. I didn’t think he was too bad last start at Caulfield behind Pandemic, finishing 3.1L away in 7^th. The form out of that race has been quite strong, and the map here looks ideal. He should be quick enough early to cross and lead comfortably- Kah just needs to hold him together early and increase the tempo from the 600-400m to pinch a winning break.

 

(1) Streets Of Avalon is better over 1400m and is coming off a forgettable campaign. He continually drew wide barriers and never really got a race run to suit. He’s obviously good enough to win this but he may find a couple too nippy.

 

Viridine is clearly the one to beat, but I’d want $2.30-$2.50 to back him. Tavisan gets a lot in his favour and loves The Valley. He’s going well and with the right run can get away with this in front. I think they’ll run the quinella regardless.

 

Tip: (5) Tavisan $6.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Tavisan

 

 

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

If (11) Continuance is here to win, I think she will. She’s a WA filly of just 4 starts, but the form around her reads very well for this. She split Magical Dream and Snickerdoodledandy over 1000m at start number 2, who are both now 3yo stakes winners. The Colac jumpout was excellent, she gets down to 54kg after the claim for an airborne Will Price and meets a bunch of fillies who have more than met their mark. With even luck from barrier 2 and provided she hasn’t drifted heavily as some L Smith horses do; I think she wins.

 

(10) Twist Of Fury comes out of a decent bm70 behind Zoushine. I think that form is a bit suspect but she’s racing well. The run over this T/D two back was solid, although she does draw wide again here.

 

(7) Backpedal was good first up at Cranbourne, getting a bit tight for room whilst the winner got the perfect run. She was only 3.2L off Loving Gaby at start number 2 as a 3yo, which followed an 8L debut win. If Continuance is held up, I think Backpedal will be just off the speed in clear air and probably win.

 

Tip: (11) Continuance $3.90 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Continuance

 

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

This is ridiculously open, but I’ve found one at odds that looks ready to peak 4^th up. I speak of (13) Annunciate, who I think comes out of the best form race behind Saccharo at Flemington. I didn’t mind the run there for 9^th, beaten 3.2L- he didn’t really get to build momentum until about the 275m mark, and was tightened for room again over the final 100m, with Childs going easy on it late. He was 4 weeks between runs there, and now steps up to the 2040m, where he’s 1/1. He needs one scratching to make the field, and barrier one could be tricky, but at $21 I think he’s overs.

 

(9) Dance Date didn’t have much luck here last start when well respected by the market. Olly sticks and she can run better here.

 

(7) Aurora’s Symphony has put in two good runs and will be suited here 3^rd up. He SP’d $3.80 last start and wasn’t beaten far.

 

(10) Horse For Higher won that race at $7 and was unlucky last start at Caulfield.

 

If Annunciate makes the field I’ll be backing him, otherwise staying out.

Tip: (13) Annunciate $21.00 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Annunciate

 

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Yulong Command looks a good bet here. I thought his run last start was excellent at Caulfield, leading on the inside of speedy mare Esta La Roca. He was given no peace there at a good tempo but fought on bravely for 3^rd, beaten 1.1L by the unbeaten Dickin Medal whilst carrying top weight of 58.5kg. He won comfortably at this T/D two back, and with Kah sticking from barrier 2 he should get every chance.

 

(6) Zesty Belle is 2/2 this prep and has done nothing wrong, winning well at Flemington last start. She got all the favours there and the form is a bit suspect in my opinion, but it’s hard to discount D Lane for Ellerton & Zahra.

 

(9) Luiselli gets a 4kg weight swing on Zesty Belle after making some late ground. She was only first up there and looks better suited here at 1200m.

 

(4) The Big Easy ran the fastest sectionals of the race behind Yulong Command last start. He meets that horse 3kg worse off, but it was a big run, and he draws better in barrier 4.

 

(11) Orlando Grove next best coming off a maiden win over subsequent winner Jonny Angel.

 

Tip: (5) Yulong Command $5.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Yulong Command

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Another very interesting WA runner from L Smith in the form of (10) Puckapunyal. Once again, the form around this mare reads exceptionally well for this race. First up last prep over 1200m she was a huge run from back in the field for 2^nd behind Bright Diamond, who we haven’t seen for a while but looks talented. At her last run before a spell, Puckapunyal started $1.80 and beat Truly Great by 2L over a mile. Obviously that horse has improved lengths since then, but it’s not to be sneezed at. She’s been hammered in betting early, and again I think it’s a case of if she’s not a big drifter and ready to win, she will.

 

(4) Second Slip is the danger. He was a strong on pace winner at Murray Bridge first up in Australia, and his NZ form reads quite well, with a 3^rd placing to My Gold Bracelet who ran a big race for 3^rd at Caulfield in a strong bm90 last year. Kah takes the ride and he draws perfectly in barrier 4.

 

(1) Comte was a touch unlucky last start in a strong race behind Evening Glory. He likely gets back from barrier 11 but is racing well.

 

(9) Foxy Lady ran on well from last behind Miss Albania first up. The step up to 1200m is desperately needed and she’ll be running on hard again.

 

Tip: (10) Puckapunyal $4.80 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Puckapunyal