Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, November 13th

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Competitive race to kick things and I like the chances of (3) Show Some Decorum tonight. He ran 2^nd to Deep Speed here last start when caught three-wide the trip. Jye McNeil takes over from Lachlan Neindorf tonight in a positive jockey change and with any luck, he should be hard to beat.

(5) Nicolini Vito bolted in first up at Kilmore. He sat three-wide the trip in winning that and while this will be much harder, he won very stylishly so has to be rated highly.

(1) Ilovethisgame made a big impression on debut at Sandown. Damien Oliver goes straight on for Greg Eurell and he has obvious claims.

The value looks to be (6) Redsnap who won well at Geelong last time he was seen. He returns from a break tonight and although he has the synthetic hoof filler on for the first time, he’s not without hope.

Tip: (3) Show Some Decorum $4.20 Unibet

Value: (6) Redsnap $8.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Show Some Decorum, 0.5 units WIN Redsnap

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The favourite (10) Twist Of Fury has been very heavily backed early but $3.30 is well and truly short enough for mine, in what looks a very competitive race. At those odds, I’ll be playing against it.

(4) Button Express bolted in first up last prep over this distance at Mornington. Damien Oliver goes on for Danny O’Brien first up. Barrier 10 is an awkward draw as there is plenty of speed in the race but $7.50 is a decent enough price for me to play.

I backed (5) Chevalier D’eon first up at $26 and she should have gone very close to winning. She was beaten less than a length in 6^th but she was held up most of the straight and barely got clear running at any stage. I fear that she may be a first up horse so the risk is her coming into this second up, but I have to go again at double figures.

I also backed (9) Chrome Angel last start but I thought she had her chance on a track that favoured those on pace. Barrier 1 can be a trap here at The Valley and there is plenty of speed so she won’t get it all her own way.

Tip: (5) Chevalier D’eon $12 Sportsbet

Also backing: (4) Button Express $7.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Chevalier D’eon, 0.5 units WIN Button Express

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Not very often we get a 3850m race in Australia, let alone at The Valley.

(4) Matas comes across to Melbourne from South Australia, having won back-to-back races at Gawler. Two starts ago he beat Wil John, who then came out and won his next start. He then won by 9.3L last time out. Hard to know how that form lines up here in Melbourne, especially as we get so few races over this distance, but he draws well and should go close.

(2) Dambulla comes off a win at Wagga over 3200m. You always have to respect Maher/Eustace in these staying races but my query is just whether he needs a bit of give in the track, given all three career wins have been on soft going. No surprise to see him win though.

(1) Alienated next best and potentially a bit of value at $7.00.

Tip: (3) Matas $2.40 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Matas

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Stuchbree Stamp bolted in on debut at Sale, winning by more than four lengths. That was on heavy ground, so it’s hard to know how much that played into things, as we can often see big margins posted on that kind of ground. He comes straight to town though and they elect to keep Luke Nolen on and carry the full 62kg rather than claim. It helps that the weight scale is so compressed though, so if he can get across from the gate, he should take some beating.

I think the value is (8) High Delta for Maher/Eustace. He’s placed in both starts this prep, which have both been in the country, and now comes to town. Should go forward from barrier 6 and find a spot on speed, probably in the lead, and with the 3kg claim he gets in well at the weights. Hard to run down at double figure odds.

(7) Unchain My Bike had no luck here last start and must be included.

Tip: (1) Stuchbree Stamp $4.00 Palmerbet

Value: (8) High Delta $10 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Stuchbree Stamp, 0.5 units WIN High Delta

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

There’s a couple at decent odds here in the 955 dash.

(5) Bray Street Boss comes across from Adelaide for trainer Will Clarken, who always has to be respected when he brings runners across the border, especially for races at The Valley! He’s had seven runners here in the past 12 months, resulting in three wins and three placings. This horse won first up but was never sighted last start, however I think he can bounce back tonight. There looks decent tempo in the race which should bring him into it and provided they can run on tonight, he’ll be hitting the line hard.

(9) McGarrett is a blowout chance at $19. He didn’t show up last preparation but he resumes tonight with the bar plates off, suggesting he’s had feet issues and is now over them. He’s competed in better versions of this race in the past and been more than competitive, so if he were to show up at his best, he’d sail home over the top of these.

Open race though.

Tip: (5) Bray Street Boss $7.50 Palmerbet

Value: (9) McGarrett $19 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Bray Street Boss, 0.5 units WIN McGarrett

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is an awful race. The only runner I could make a case for was the favourite (3) Humble Pie who looked like he was going to win over this track and distance last start, but the winner fought him off in the straight. They pulled well clear of the third horse and with barrier 4 tonight and a similar weight, you’d think Humble Pie would be able to go one better. The only query is Symon Wilde has a terrible record here at Moonee Valley so $2.45 looks short enough.

Happy to watch them go around and keep the powder dry.

Tip: (3) Humble Pie $2.45 Unibet

Betting strategy: No bet.

Odds Last Updated: November 14, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Probably the best race on the card tonight and there’s five legitimate winning chances.

We see the return of (15) Coolth who is our $2.90 favourite. He was super-impressive winning his first two starts in South Australia, before coming across to Melbourne where he ran 3^rd to Persan twice. He resumes tonight and that sort of form should see him very hard to beat, despite drawing a bit awkwardly in barrier 1.

Outside of him, there’s some great chances if he’s not at his best. (9) Bacchus bounced back to form last start and made it two from two over this track and distance.

(10) Cassius looks primed for tonight, coming here third up from a spell. He’s undefeated from his two starts when third up and he’s yet to finish out of the top two from three starts at this track and distance.

Luke Nolen actually jumps off Cassius to ride the stablemate (11) Westbrook Park, who was luckless last start and gets winkers on for the first time tonight.

And (14) Astraeus is also third up, which is when he tends to peak. Back onto a firmer surface tonight should suit and he gets a lovely run from barrier 4.

Tip: (15) Coolth $2.90 Palmerbet

Value: (10) Cassius $8.50 Bet365 & (14) Astraeus $10 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Coolth, 0.5 units WIN Bacchus, 0.5 units WIN Astraeus

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Tough way to finish.

(7) Cataracta sat three-wide the trip first up at Warrnambool and still worked home OK. The query is whether she appreciates wet tracks better but the three times she failed on good ground was in a preparation where she didn’t seem to come up. Drawn well tonight, she should be competitive.

(10) Kootara flew home last start at Kyneton and might be one to watch late in the race if horses are able to make ground with the rail out.

(9) Helavabel may well be the best horse in the race but he has obviously had issues, given he has been off the scene for 30 weeks since his only run last prep. He returns with glue on shoes on tonight so that’s also some query.

Tip: (7) Cataracta $4.20 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Cataracta