Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, November 19th

(8) Alverdun will give himself every chance on speed now getting to 1600m. He’s been strong to the line at both career starts and should get a nice map from barrier 5. Gets D Moor on now, there isn’t much speed here and he’ll get every chance.

I could’ve made a case for (11) Sheer Treasure but the map is awful. I don’t think he handled the heavy last start at Hawkesbury but the run prior at Newcastle when beaten 5.3L by Norwegian Bliss who is an unbeaten and looks very progressive. Barrier 10 means he’ll have to go back though.

(4) Spirit De Lune resumed with a solid 3rd and will appreciate getting to 1600m. He’s easily got the talent to win this but hasn’t always had things go his way.

Tip: (8) Alverdun- $7.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Alverdun

(2) Perfect World resumed with a dominant win first up in bm64 grade. She’s always shown plenty of talent having placed behind Ecumenical at listed level. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal and she’ll need luck in running potentially sitting 3 back the fence.

(4) The Marg Factor won the race that Fontein Diamond comes out of. She can probably lead again from an ideal barrier and has run well since at this T/D when a 3.3L 2nd to Akacheta.

Tip: (4) The Marg Factor- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN The Marg Factor

(3) Mckeever should be able to settle much closer around midfield compared to his first up run where he was backed into $1.50 and didn’t have much luck, storming home for 2nd when it was all over. This is his first go at 1200m but I think he might be looking for it now and with Meech on from a nice gate he can only run well.

(6) Transplant is an interesting one. She hasn’t raced in a while but showed plenty of promise last prep, winning by 6L in a maiden at $1.16 and racing well in bm70 grade when wide before a spell. The jumpouts have been a bit questionable but she maps very well.

(4) Space Force was well backed on debut and won accordingly. He gets a very soft run from barrier 2 and can progress.

Tip: (3) Mckeever- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Mckeever

Looks a tough race over 2500m. (2) Brilliant Venture is in great form coming off two strong wins. The 3rd horse in his latest win at Cranbourne then ran a narrow 2nd to Mankayan last Saturday. He’s up to 60kg but absolutely flying.

(1) Chains Of Honour is ready to win, having his 3rd start for Maher/Eustace. He doesn’t win often but you basically have to treat him as a new horse with this stable, especially for a stayer. The 3kg claim looks ideal and he’s a big chance.

(8) Angelic Scent next best getting out to 2500m for the first time.

Tip: (1) Chains Of Honour- $3.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

I think (11) Maddox can run a race at a big price here. He led on the rails and faded badly first up but the rail was clearly the inferior ground. 2nd up last prep he got all favours but bolted in by 5L. He gets a nice map here and can improve sharply.

(10) Kev’s Girl has only had 5 starts but has shown plenty of talent. She’s a real 955m horse with plenty of early speed, and her run before a spell was good in a stronger race behind Twist Of Fury. She’s won a jumpout in good fashion by racing clear out in front and going through the line well.

(9) Sweetzou will get back and charge to the line. She’s a good fresh horse and clearly has the talent to run well here.

Tip: (11) Maddox- $17.00/4.60 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (10) Kev’s Girl- $8.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Maddox , 0.5 units WIN Kev’s Girl

(5) Super Thief comes through the best form having been beaten 3.4L by Profiteer during Cup week at Flemington. He should be able to find a nice spot from barrier 6 and back around a bend will help.

(9) Unflinching bolted in on debut at Mornington from the lead and looks very talented. The 2nd horse came out and won here at $31 last week. No knock on him at all.

(2) Fake Love led and was run down by Marine One last start at this T/D. She gets in fairly well after the 3kg claim but there’s plenty of speed drawn inside her which will be interesting.

Tip: (5) Super Thief- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Super Thief

(10) Mostly Sunny will give herself every chance getting in with 54kg and landing on speed whereas a few dangers likely get back. 3rd up now she’s ready to win. The quinella that beat her home last start have since run very well.

(6) Manasa is racing well. The wide draw isn’t ideal and likely means she has to get back, but her last two runs should see her competitive in this.

(12) Big Angel drops back in trip after failing in a stronger race at Flemington. The run prior at Kyneton was good.

Tip: (10) Mostly Sunny- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mostly Sunny

Open race to finish. (6) Gusonic might be able to run a race down from NSW. He sat wide over 1000m and just went down first up at Corowa to a horse called Flying Finch, who has actually beaten home the favourite Real Gun in a Bendigo maiden a year ago. He draws well and can run a race from a good draw.

(4) Real Gun is a live chance. He was okay in restricted room behind Duchess Of Dorset last start from an inside draw and that form stacked up well at Flemington. The wide draw and 3kg claimer is tricky.

(10) Dance To Dubai had no peace in front first up at $1.50 but was too good for them. Kelly should be able to hold the lead from barrier 1 and she’ll take some running down.

(13) Tonneofgrit took on some good races last prep and ran well, beaten 2.5L by Jigsaw and 2L by Mac ‘n’ Cheese. That’s good enough for this if he’s ready to go.

(3) Nightfire can run well first up. He beat a fairly handy one on debut last prep before starting $5 and being beaten 2L by Litchfield County and Curran. Barrier 14 hurts but he’s potentially the horse with the most upside here.

Tip: (6) Gusonic- $19.00/4.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Nightfire- $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Gusonic, 0.5 units WIN Nightfire